The Latest from Iran (1 July): Establishing the Pattern

2025 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert: Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Behrouz Alishiri has said that new UN sanctions have proven futile, as transactions in Iran's investment market have risen 10 percent since the passage of the UN resolution.

Alishiri added that, according to the reports of the International Monetary Fund, foreign investment in Iran rose from $900 million in 2007 to $3 billion in 2009.

NEW Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “The Green Movement Goes Underground”
Iran Eyewitness: “Life Continues for People…With the Hope of Change” (Fatemeh)
Iran Special: The Significance of the “Universities Crisis” (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (30 June): Assessing “Crisis”

1925 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Lloyd’s of London, the insurance market, is recognising US sanctions by restricting cover for any ships carrying petroleum to Iran.

1815 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, this weekend, the President will visit Nigeria.

It could be that Ahmadinejad fancies a change of scenery. Perhaps he got one of those special e-mails offering him a lot of money if he helped get the funds of a late President/General/businessman out of the country. Or maybe there is some connection with Nigeria taking over the presidency of the United Nations Security Council.

1805 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activists report that Narges Mohammadi , the vice-chair of Shirin Ebadi's Center for the Defenders of Human Rights, has been released on $50,000 bail.

1800 GMT: Speaking of Universities and Threats. BBC Persian reports that some applicants for Iran's universities have received a threatening text message warning that, if they participated in post-election protests last year, they will be ineligible for acceptance regardless of their performance on entrance examinations.

The head of the government agency that administers the examinations has harshly criticised the sending of the messages. Iran Unfiltered concludes that this is an example of "hardline" elements of the regime acting without the consent and probably the prior knowledge of officials.

1750 GMT: The Universities Crisis. The dispute between Parliament and President over Islamic Azad University, analysed by EA's Mr Verde yesterday, has finally hit the non-Iranian mainstream press. The Guardian of London offers a summary, framing the battle as "a bitter political battle for control between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his most powerful rival, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani".

1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labour activists claim that the Iranian government has informed the International Labour Organization that Mansour Osanloo, a leader of Tehran's bus union, is due for release.

The Interational Transport Workers Federation and the International Trade Union Confederation have welcomed the news but also insisted that 52 other innocent trade unionists should be freed.

1605 GMT: Cyber-Shelter. Reporters Without Borders has launched the world’s first “Anti-Censorship Shelter” for use by foreign journalists, bloggers, and activists.

The organization said at a gathering in Paris, "At a time when online filtering and surveillance is becoming more and more widespread, we are making an active commitment to an Internet that is unrestricted and accessible to all by providing the victims of censorship with the means of protecting their online information.”

The initiative, pursued with the communications security firm XeroBank, offers free high-speed anonymity services, including encrypted email and web access, to those who use the Shelter Connection through a Virtual Private Network routes traffic across XeroBank's gigabit backbone network. As it passes from country to country, mixed with tens of thousands of other users, it creates a virtually untraceable high-speed anonymity network.

The network will be available not only to users of the Shelter in Paris but also to their contacts anywhere in the world and to all those identified by Reporters Without Borders. They will be able to connect with the XeroBank service through access codes and secured, ready-to-use USB flash drives.

1545 GMT: Larijani "Mans Up". Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani continues to put forth the even-tougher-than-the-President line on international matters.

Speaking at the end of an Islamic Inter-Parliamentary summit in Damascus, Larijani said the Americans' ulterior motive in imposing new sanctions lay not in Tehran but in the West Bank and Gaza: "We are told that Iran's approach toward Palestine is important for them [the US], and they think they can change our will by pressuring us."

Larijani added, "Considering the Zionist regime's plots, countries in the Islamic world should stand beside each other."

1400 GMT: Rewriting the Past for the Present. The head of the Basiji militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi has announced a new Basij Cyber Army. To introduce this advance in Iranian warfare, Naqdi declared that the Soviet Union was toppled by Iranian martyrs, and those fighters also ensured Zionists are surrounded by Hamas and Hezbollah today.

1220 GMT: Refugee Watch. OMID Advocates have published an extensive, vital study, "Report on the Situation of Iranian Refugees in Turkey".

1125 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Pedram Rafati, a student activist at Amir Kabir University, has been sentenced to two years in prison and fined. Reports claim that the presiding judge, Abolghassam Salavati, threatened Rafati with a longer term if he appeals.

Labour activist Khosro Boukani has been given a two-year sentence.

0945 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hossein Marashi, former Vice President and relative and ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has returned to jail after a temporary release during his one-year sentence.

Professors and students have demanded the release of Ehsan Abdoh Tabrizi, a Ph.D. candidate at Durham University in Britain. Tabrizi was detained on Ashura during a visit to his relatives.

0935 GMT: Economy Watch. Sadegh Mahsouli, the Minister of Welfare and Social Security, has announced that the  subsidy reduction plan will be implemented in six provinces --- Isfahan, Sout Khorasan, Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan, Bushehr, and Golestan --- from July.

Minister of Housing Ali Nikzad has expressed his concern about a "housing bazaar gone mad", resulting in extremely high rents.

Six million families will receive a basket of goods for Ramadan, with a reduction of 20 percent in price.

0930 GMT: The Battle Within. Fatemeh Bodaghi, the President's deputy for judicial affairs, notes that complaints against member of Parliament Elyas Naderan, a vocal critic of the Government, and (even more politically interesting) Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf are still in court and asks Iran's judiciary why they have not been handled.

0920 GMT: Spinning the Nuclear Talks. What is highlighted in Khabar Online's coverage of the statement by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: his call for renewed discussions between Russia, the US, France, and Iran.

What's missing: Lavrov's pre-condition that Iran suspend the attempt to enrich uranium to 20 percent.

0915 GMT: A Challenge to Moscow. Iran's Minister of Defense, Ahmad Vahidi, has demanded Russian delivery of S-300 missiles to Tehran. The shipment has been held up for months amidst the international manoeuvres over sanctions and Iran's nuclear programme.

0910 GMT: The Fall-Out from the Attack on Khomeini. Another message from a cleric for Seyed Hassan Khomeini, who was shouted down by regime supporters when he tried to speak at the 4 June for his late grandfather....

That is far from unusual. What is distinctive this time is that the backing comes from a member of the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, seen as a bulwark of the regime. Hojatoleslam Dr. Ahmad Ahmadi wrote to Hassan Khomeini, "I was stunned when I heard of this ugly uproar."

0755 GMT: The Voices of Women. Zahra Rahnavard has asserted that joining international conventions is the best way to prevent domestic oppression.

Female followers of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri have asked Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, to insist on a reopening of Montazeri's offices, recently sealed by Iranian authorities.

0750 GMT: Irony, Sarcasm, or a Message for Ahmadinejad? Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani offered this nugget to the press in a meeting with Bahrain's Foreign Minister on Tuesday, "The strategic policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran on Iraq is the formation of a national unity government with the presence of all political, religious and ethnic groups."

Now, Mr Larijani, is your tongue in your cheek or are you really pushing the idea of "national unity" not only for Iraq but for its neighbours? (And if it is the latter, does Fars News understand what you are doing?)

0745 GMT: Websites for Human Rights. An EA reader brings to our attention CrowdVoice: Tracking Voices of Protest, which included a section with news on "Prisoners of Conscience in Iran".

0735 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Token Sanctions. Iranian state media say that President Ahmadinejad has announced a boycott of Western companies and goods in retaliation against sanctions by the US and UN. Included are Coca-Cola, IBM, Intel, and Nestle.

Hmm.... Not quite sure why Ahmadinejad is presenting this as "new". I certainly couldn't get hold of an evil Coke when I was in Tehran --- instead, I got hooked on the politically correct (and quite tasty) Parsi Cola.
0725 GMT: More on Depression in Tehran. Yesterday we noted the headline, via Iranian Labor News Agency, on a study of the emotional state of Tehran residents: 30% depressed.

Rooz Online offers much more on the study, by Tehran's Aria Strategic Studies Center, and on press coverage. The "30%" refers to severe depression; another 28% claim to suffer from mild depression. The report says concerns about marriage, housing, employment, and income are among those that have caused anxiety and unease among Tehran residents.

The official unemployment is now 14%, with higher rates amongst youth and university graduates.

0710 GMT: Cyber-Development. The International Committee for Human Rights in Iran has launched a podcast. This week's topic: "Will more political prisoners face execution soon?”

0620 GMT: Nuclear Front. Another signal that talks on Iran's uranium enrichment may resume: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has said Tehran will respond to a Russian proposal to meet with the Vienna Group (US, Russia, and France) after consulting with Brazil and Turkey.  He suggested that the discussions be held in Tehran.

Mottaki offered no comment, however, on the US-Russia-France pre-condition that Iran halt efforts to produce 20% enriched uranium.

0610 GMT: We have posted a feature, "The Green Movement Goes Underground", the third part of Persian2English's interview with activist Ahmad Batebi.

0450 GMT: Wednesday was another day in what seems to be the pattern of Iranian politics, now 12 1/2 months after the disputed Presidential election. Opposition activity was relatively muted, at least on the public front, while the Government tried to deal (or sometimes evaded) a series of conflicts within the establishment.

A follow-up to one of those possible emerging conflicts: Rooz Online have now published an English version of Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah's lengthy article claiming that pro-Ahmadinejad members of Parliament are turning on the Motalefeh Party, a key group in Iranian politics since 1979, with the Islamic Azad University argument as a catalyst.

Comments

[Catherine]

58 Percent Depressed, 400 Thousand Addicts, 14 Percent Unemployed
While state-run media use Europe and U.S. depression and suicide rates to claim that the West is disintegrating, a report by the Aria Strategic Studies Center revealed that 58 percent of Tehran residents suffer from severe and mild depression. Meanwhile, Tehran’s police chief announced that the addiction age has decreased and Tehran has passed the “critical point” in this area. At the same time, unemployment rate, especially among the youth and university graduates, has reached 14 percent.
More: http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/june/30//58-percent-depressed-400-thousand-addicts-14-percent-unemployed.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem...

[Catherine]

Today's Straight Face Challenge

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani in a meeting on Tuesday with Bahraini Foreign Minister reiterated that Tehran desires to see that a national unity government is formed in Iraq.;"The strategic policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran on Iraq is the formation of a national unity government with the presence of ALL POLITICAL, RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC GROUPS".
[emphasis mine]

So, citizens of Iran, eat your hearts out!

[Catherine]

While (finally) reading 'Ten Green Movement Strategies to Make the Islamic Regime Yield' by Majid Mohammadi, 2 of the strategies he lists struck me as particularly relevant right now: "Clarify the Government's Internal Disagreements" and "Let Them Shoot Themselves".

He writes, "To dismantle the regime's strength in fighting against the protesting actions, it is vital to make the internal struggles and differences in the ruling class clear. The government and ruling clergy claim unity and solidarity of its forces. Any analysis that debases this claim is poisonous for the entire regime." I would say that Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah’s article on Rooz Online claiming that pro-Ahmadinejad members of Parliament are turning on the Motalefeh Party, and the very public divisions between conservatives and hard-liners over who controls Islamic Azad University, fit the bill quite nicely.

As for "Let them shoot themselves", Majid Mohammadi offers this example: "Many of the repressing actions of the government have been similar to shooting oneself or suicide (such as Khamenei's fatwa to forbid the festival of fire before the Iranian New Year)". The recently intensified campaign to enforce proper hejab and police peoples' private lives seems to me to be playing straight into this strategy as well.

http://www.gozaar.org/english/articles-en/Ten-Green-Movement-Strategies-to-Make-the-Islamic-Regime-Yield.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.gozaar.org/english/articles-en/Ten-G...

[Catherine]

Hassan Mir-Assadollahi, the husband of Fatemeh Semsarpour, stated in an interview with Rooz Online that the Military Court has asked him to accept Dieh (blood money) for the death of his wife, but he has refused. Fatemeh Semsarpour along with her older son, Kaveh, were shot in front of their home during the protests on June 20, 2009. Ms. Semsarpour died that same day, but his son survived following two heavy and complicated surgeries.

Article and interview: http://persian2english.com/?p=12397" rel="nofollow">http://persian2english.com/?p=12397

[Catherine]

RE 0735 GMT: Ahmadinejad’s Token Sanctions. "On the blacklist are Coca-Cola, IBM, Intel and Nestle"

WHAT? IBM still exists?

[Arshama]

Catherine,

Here comes another important strategy for the GM, especially as a means to counter the regime's expectable efforts to blame the "bad" western sanctions for their economic disaster. Former Iranian MP Rajab-Ali Mazrooie: Iran's economy 'crippled', facing stagflation: http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jun/29/2121" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jun/2...

Arshama

[ScottLucas11]

Peterlin,

Thank you so much for the update --- the last time I could visit Iran was in 2005 (and I had forgotten that I preferred Zam Zam, like you) where I was usually at universities or with academic colleagues who would have been supportive of local over "Western" products.

Please keep sending in info like these to keep me fresh on how varied and ever-changing life is across Tehran.

S.

[Catherine]

For the nuclear dossier diehards:

Nuclear watchdog still hopeful of a deal between Tehran and the West
The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, flatly stated in a recent interview with the Los Angeles Times that a once much-touted deal between Iran and the international community on Tehran's nuclear program wasn't going to happen without big changes.
Wide-ranging interview: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2010/06/iran-nuclear-watchdog-says-still-hopeful-of-a-deal-between-tehran-and-the-west.html" rel="nofollow">http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2...

[Catherine]

In 2008 and 2009, Pepsi and Coke were often available even in towns and villages. What struck me was that in drugstores and bazaars we could find a wide range of European personal hygiene products, down to the very same deodorants we buy! :-)

[Ange-Paris]

Madame Fatemeh Bodaghi
"Fatemeh Bodaghi, the President’s deputy for judicial affairs, notes that complaints against member of Parliament Elyas Naderan, a vocal critic of the Government, and (even more politically interesting) Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf are still in court and asks Iran’s judiciary why they have not been handled."
I can imagine how you are; an ugly woman ,very hung up with black tchador; now give me an answer; what about Mr Mortazavi and others , Mr Taeb, Mr Naghdi, Mr Radan, Mr Moghadam, Mojtaba KH, and Mr KH, true responsabales of all the murders ( beyond 100) , the orders's donors !! and what about the corrupt people arround Mr AN and their files ? please, let the innocents in peace ! and work better ! you should be" the exemple" of "justice" .

[WitteKr]

Israel - Turkey Watch: "Israeli and Turkish ministers in secret talks to ease flotilla crisis."
Secret diplomacy, even the Israeli Foreign Ministry didn't know what their Trade Minister Benjamin Ben Eliezer was doing in Brussels...
http://www.france24.com/en/20100701-turkey-israel-hold-talks-ease-crisis-over-gaza-bound-aid-ships" rel="nofollow">http://www.france24.com/en/20100701-turkey-isra...

[WitteKr]

Re 1400 GMT: Ali Reza Eshraghi, IWPR’s Iran editor, wrote a very comprehensive article on the growing Basij army.
"Basij movement hopes to catch children at early age and train them up for “army of 20 million” - http://www.iwpr.net/report-news/teenage-paramilitaries-iran" rel="nofollow">http://www.iwpr.net/report-news/teenage-paramil...

[SmileIran.Com]

Scott, both Coca Cola and Pepsi have a major presence in Iran. Interestingly they were always available in Iran, but I think initially they were not original, but since a decade (?? or less?) both brands are under the authority of the original companies in USA. It even has "Original" on their cans to indicate that it is linked to the US companies.

Only interestingly, I remember last year on the cans it would say that it was under the authority of Coca Cola or Pepsi, New York. It didn't mention New York, USA on it, but New York was mentioned. However, this year, even the New York has been removed.

However, both brands are more prominent in Tehran (and other cities) than the other brands.

[ScottLucas11]

Smile,

Thank you --- this is really helpful and quite interesting.

S.

[Ange-Paris]

Scott
It's too funny your reply to :-) :-)

[Rgrassroots]

If anything is proven by your article above is than Iran has a lot more 'democracy' . There seems so much criticism of govt officials and Khamanei himself, directly or indirectly and most of it is carried out in a civil manner. Apart from the occassional thuggish behaviour by gangs (comparable to the English Defence League in the UK) or football mobs in Europe, this is a healthy, vibrant and as free a society as you can get in the region.

[Ange-Paris]

S.Korea GS E&C says scraps $1.2 bln Iran gas deal Reuters
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20100701/tbs-gse-c-iran-955c2a1.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=DTN+Asia%253A" rel="nofollow">http://asia.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20100701/tbs-gs...

[Arshama]

Rgrassroots,

If democracy is equal to
- banning oppositional parties
- shutting down oppositional newspapers
- imprisoning, raping and killing peaceful protesters
- imprisoning journalists and human rights activists, and
- a monopole of religious foundations and paramilitary forces on the economy,
then your beloved IR is certainly the best "democracy" of the world!

Your Bassiji thugs never get sentenced for attacking and killing peaceful protesters, or attacking the clergy and the parliament. Obviously they are as "holy" as your "Holy Republic".

Who do you think you're fooling?

Arshama

[Baz]

@Rgrassroots

I would like to hear more about the " the occassional thuggish behaviour by gangs" . Can you tell us what these occasions have been and who are these gangs?

Thanks

Barry