Iran Election Guide

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Friday
Nov262010

Terrorism Analysis: Does the Far Right Encourage Violent Extremism?

The far right, to win votes, capitalises on a fear of Muslim extremism, especially terrorism. That aids extremists by playing into a narrative long cultivated by a spectrum of radicals, including Osama bin Laden.

In this narrative, Islam is under attack from western Christian nations as part of a clash of civilizations. Muslim-bashing in the West becomes further evidence that Muslims are unwelcome in these places and will never be accepted because of their religious faith. Alienation rises, and the most alienated are drawn into the web of the extremist recruiters and potentially into terrorism cast as defenders of the faith. If a terrorist act ultimately occurs, then that is more fuel for the far right. And so on and so on in a potentially long-running cycle.

If this cycle has begun and when it will end are questions that go far beyond the English Defence League and indeed beyond "England".

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Friday
Nov262010

Egypt: Who Disabled Facebook's "We Are All Khaled Said" Page?

UPDATE 1520 GMT: An activist reports, "Facebook reinstated the [Egyptian] groups but the moderators as of last night remain suspended, i.e., the groups are dead in the water."

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As Presidential elections approach, tension is rising in Egypt. On Thursday, authorities arrested 156 protesters over Wednesday's  clashes between Christians and police, sparked by the government's refusal of a permit to build a church. Those arrested have been accused of planning to kill policemen, and the public prosecutor has ordered their detention for two weeks.

One sign of the concern is the apparent decision to block the Facebook page "We Are All Khaled Said". In June, Said was allegedly beaten to death in Alexandria by two policemen after he refused to give them money. 

The case has sparked widespread, continuing protests, and the page gathered more than 3000 followers.

So, with more restrictions on information likely as the vote draws near, is Facebook --- which is a leading social media site in Egypt --- collaborating with the authorities?

Friday
Nov262010

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Is Knesset Playing a Peace-Deal Trick on Israeli Public?

The opinions of Israel's people will be sought only if the Knesset has approved an agreement signed by the government; those opinions will have no value if the Knesset has rejected a proposal. Haaretz's Akiva Eldar concludes that "the referendum bill uses public as peace-deal rubber stamp".

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Thursday
Nov252010

US Audio: Sarah Palin and "Our North Korean Allies"

Mark this moment because it may be the only time I defend former Vice Presidential candidate and resigned Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

The Internet is afire because of Palin's statement in a radio interview, "We're bound to stand with our North Korean allies", with critics holding up another example of her outstanding cluelessness about seeing anything --- except Russia --- from her house.

For me, drawing from experience, it's a verbal slip. What is more significant is the other 57 seconds of the passage, in which Palin foregoes any comprehension of the issue for her "Administration is Bad, Standing with Our Allies [Whichever One It Is] Good" posture.

 

Thursday
Nov252010

The Latest from Iran (25 November): Taking a Break?

2144 GMT: Election and Sedition. Another take-away from the Supreme Leader's speech to Basij militia today....

Ayatollah Khamenei said the post-election protesters put their desire for power above the Islamic Republic in a “complex sedition” which endangered the “interests of the country and the righteousness of its path". He added, “They acted in such a way that drew the excitement and support of Western leaders and the Iranian nation’s first grade enemies.”

The Supreme Leader also laid down the lines on loyalty: “A society is either led by the just Imam...or it is run by human beings who know nothing of righteousness....It cannot be any other way.”

2138 GMT: Controlling the Mourning. As the anniversary of the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri approaches, Commander Mohammad Reza Heydari has announced the establishment of "Muharram Police" in Qom to control religious ceremonies.

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Thursday
Nov252010

Iran Politics: Will the anti-Ahmadinejad Campaign Ease for the Holidays?

As Iran begins a four-day religious holiday today, there is likely to be an easing of news. 

But will there be an easing of pressure on President Ahmadinejad?

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Thursday
Nov252010

Afghanistan: America's Failed War of Attrition (Scahill)

It is not simply a matter of ideology versus technology. The Taliban is not one unified body. The Afghan insurgency is fueled by fighters with a wide variety of motivations. Some are dedicated jihadists, but others are fighting to defend their land or are seeking revenge for the killing of family members by NATO or Afghan forces. While Al Qaeda has been almost entirely expelled from Afghanistan, the insurgency still counts a small number of non-Afghans among its ranks. Bolstering the Taliban's recruitment efforts is the perception in Afghanistan that the Taliban pays better than NATO or the Afghan army or police.

The hard reality US officials don't want to discuss is this: the cultural and religious values of much of the Pashtun population--which comprises 25–40 percent of the country--more closely align with those of the Taliban than they do with Afghan government or US/NATO forces.

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Thursday
Nov252010

Complications of War: Jordan and the Iraqi Refugees

Jordan has provided a safe haven for Iraq’s never-ending stream of war refugees, as the country has kept its borders open long after other regional destinations have closed. According to recent estimates, Iraqis constitute somewhere between 8 to 12 percent of the Jordanian population. Jordan’s goodwill is, however, nearing its breaking point, due to resource strains, security concerns and continued violence inside Iraq. Moreover, the humanitarian crisis created by this situation has raised numerous challenges and questions of ethics and transparency in refugee management and service provision, which many in the government and NGO world did not foresee.

Thursday
Nov252010

Korea Update: North Threatens New Attacks, South to Bolster Military Arsenal, US Asks China to Step In

UPDATE 1730 GMT: The spin out of Seoul is that the President's inner circle of ministers, in their emergency meeting,decided that old rules of engagement put too much emphasis on prevention of escalation. In future, South Korea will implement different levels of response, depending on whether the North attacked military or civilian targets, but the new rules call for retaliation "with shots two to three times more powerful than the enemy artillery".

UPDATE 1420 GMT: China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi has cancelled a visit to Seoul on Friday. Chinese officials claimed a scheduling conflict, but South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Kim Young-sun indicated Seoul has concerns.

UPDATE 1115 GMT: President Lee Myung-Bak has accepted the resignation of South Korea's Minister of Defense,Kim Tae-Young.

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Wednesday
Nov242010

The Latest from Iran (24 November): Smog and Politics

2125 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom claims, from a source close to Hengameh Shahidi, that the journalist has been hospitalised following a hunger strike.

A group of political, academic, and human rights activists have issued a statement calling for the release of Ebrahim Yazdi, the 78-year-old former Foreign Minister.

Shahidi was returned to prison on 15 November after a 18-day leave for medical treatment.

2120 GMT: An Appeal for Refugees. Exiled attorney Mohammad Mostafaei has written to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon:

Since there are Iranians living in various countries under deplorable conditions and need support to appeal their request for asylum, with deep concerns I hereby request that the United Nations expeditiously contact all member states in order to review the affairs of asylum seekers. As a result, refugees will be able to relocate to states where they desire to live in security. It is self evident that prolonging the proceedings for the refugees is against the standards of human rights and ought to be considered as torture and punishment.

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