Afghanistan: The Complications of the Elections Result (Cole)

Juan Cole writes:

Most of the results of the disputed parliamentary election in Afghanistan were announced on Wednesday. Altogether 24 candidates were disqualified from parliament because the Independent Electoral Commission found them guilty of fraud. Some 1.3 million of the 5.6 million votes were tossed out as invalid.

The southern Pashtun ethnic group appears to have lost its majority in parliament, a development that could presage further dissatisfaction with the government in the Pashtun south and east of the country, which is already the site of a lively set of insurgencies.

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Korea Update: Bodies of 2 Civilians Found, Seoul Emergency Meeting, US-South Korea Joint Drill

UPDATE 1715 GMT: The US force for Sunday's joint exercise with South Korea will include the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington and four other ships, carrying 6,000 sailors and 75 aircraf

“These [exercises] are not a direct reaction [to Tuesday's North Korean artillery attack],” USFK spokesman David Oten said. “Basically, they’re unrelated.”

UPDATE 1640 GMT: North Korea's Foreign Ministry has again blamed South Korea for the artillery barrage: "The enemies, despite our repeated warnings, eventually committed extremely reckless military provocations of firing artillery shells into our maritime territory near Yeonpyeong Island beginning 1 p.m. Tuesday." 

There has been no resumption of conflict since yesterday's North Korean artillery barrage against Yeonpyeong Island; however, the bodies of two civilians killed in the assault have been found this morning. Two South Korean soldiers died of wounds on Tuesday.

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Iran Text and Analysis: The Latest Report on Tehran's Nuclear Programme

These conclusions in the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear programme are far from dramatic. Much of the wording could have been taken from any IAEA finding of the last two years: there is no evidence that Tehran is shifting uranium to make a nuclear weapon, but the Agency cannot be sure because it has not gotten access to all areas of the programme. 

No, what is notable about the IAEA report is the "spin" being put on it by media, fed by unnamed officials. On almost every occasion in the last two to three years, reporters from leading US newspapers would have trumpeted that the IAEA had shown Iran was on the verge of material for at least one bomb in the next year and that Tehran was guilty of hiding this effort.

Yesterday, however, that guilty verdict was missing.

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Afghanistan: The Real Lesson of the Taliban Imposter (Cohen)

Yesterday's revelation in the New York Times that one of the Taliban officials with whom the Afghan government was meeting in peace talks with was actually an impostor is the proverbial hanging curve ball of Afghan-related snark.

Sure I could write a post about how this goes to show that the US and NATO --- even after 9 years of war --- have little understanding of the enemy with whom it's fighting. Even more directly, I could write a post about how this goes to show that the Petraeus/ISAF supposition that kinetic action was bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table was bunk.

But this story is yet one more reason to conclude that the time has come for the United States to trim its sails in Afghanistan, more toward military de-escalation and lay the groundwork for a long-term political settlement.

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US Eyewitness: Veterans Recall When Interrogation Did Not Mean Torture

The group of World War II veterans kept a military code and the decorum of their generation, telling virtually no one of their top-secret work interrogating Nazi prisoners of war at Fort Hunt.

When about two dozen veterans got together yesterday for the first time since the 1940s, many of the proud men lamented the chasm between the way they conducted interrogations during the war and the harsh measures used today in questioning terrorism suspects.

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Iran Special: Did Parliament "Push to Oust Ahmadinejad"?

There are therefore two explanations to the Khamenei intervention on behalf of the President.

1. He wanted to avoid major embarassment for Ahmadinejad, who could have become the first president since the 1980s to be called into question by Parliament for his conduct, and left standing, but smarting and humiliated in front of the nation, which could have ostensibly followed the procedure live.

2. He was wary of the fact that Parliament could have voted a no-confidence motion which would have forced him to either confirm or throw out the impeachment.

It has to be reiterated that the "istizah" procedure of Parliament, to which Ahmadinejad was summoned, does not necessarily lead to impeachment.

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Israel: Knesset Makes Referendum Essential for Withdrawal from East Jerusalem

On Monday a law, proposed by the Likud Party, mandating a referendum before any decision to withdraw from sovereign Israeli territory was adopted 65-33 in the 120-member Knesset.

Because of the reference to "sovereign Israeli territory", there is no need for a referendum to withdraw from the West Bank. However, because the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem were annexed by the Knesset, a referendum will be required unless withdrawal is approved by a two-thirds majority of the legislators

Having strengthened its position vis-a-vis the Palestinians on the negotiation table, having passed the loyalty bill requiring new immigrants to pledge loyalty to the "Jewish and democratic" state, the Knesset is now purusing the "eternal and indivisible capital".

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Iran Art and Protest: "Voice Piece for Green Soprano"

The people of Iran refuse to be what their government wants them to be. We stand before you with covered mouths because the people of Iran do not enjoy the right to scream. We scream because they screamed and chanted in the night. We are peacefully making victory signs because we do not accept violence. Instead, we sing our Voice Piece for Green Soprano. We fear the regime’s capability for violence, so we have either covered our face or have given up on the hope to see our friends and relatives in Iran in the near future. We wear green, not because we want to exclude dissenting voices or insist on a single ideology, but because we want to affirm that the Green Movement is myriad, one out of many.

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Breaking: North Korea Shells South Korea Island; Seoul on Highest "Non-War Alert"

UPDATE 1220 GMT: The South Korean President's office says Lee Myung-bak has ordered the military to strike North Korea's missile base around its coastline artillery positions if it shows signs of additional provocation.

The spokeswoman added that, in a video conference with Gen. Han Min-koo, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the President ordered "multiple-fold retaliation" against North Korea for its artillery attack today.

UPDATE 1130 GMT: The South Korean military has confirmed its two-day exercise on Yongpyeong Island before the North Korea attack, but it says South Korean forces fired west and not north.

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Afghanistan: Oops! "Taliban Leader" in Peace Talks is An Imposter (Filkins/Gall)

NOTE: Not an Actual Photo of the ImpostorFor an intriguing follow-up assignment, consider: How did this story come to the reporters' attention and why?

For months, the secret talks unfolding between Taliban and Afghan leaders to end the war appeared to be showing promise, if only because of the appearance of a certain insurgent leader at one end of the table: Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, one of the most senior commanders in the Taliban movement.

But now, it turns out, Mr. Mansour was apparently not Mr. Mansour at all. In an episode that could have been lifted from a spy novel, United States and Afghan officials now say the Afghan man was an impostor, and high-level discussions conducted with the assistance of NATO appear to have achieved little.

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