The Latest from Iran (2 April): Slipping By

1420 GMT: Obama Talks the Tough Talk. Continuing the public approach of a push for international sanctions, President Obama has told a US television network, "I have said before that we don't take any options off the table, and we're going to continue to ratchet up the pressure and examine how they respond. But we're going to do so with a unified international community -- that puts us in a much stronger position."

NEW Iran: The Clerical Challenge Continues (Shahryar)
NEW The Great Nuclear Race: Google v. Iran (Arrington)
The Latest from Iran (1 April): Out Like a Lamb?

At the same time, note how Obama carefully distinguishes himself from the line of other Washington talking heads demanding action because Iran is on the verge of military nuclear capability:

All the evidence indicates that the Iranians are trying to develop the capacity to develop nuclear weapons (emphasis added). They might decide that, once they have that capacity that they'd hold off right at the edge -- in order not to incur -- more sanctions.

But, if they've got nuclear weapons-building capacity -- and they are flouting international resolutions, that creates huge destabilizing effects in the region and will trigger an arms race in the Middle East that is bad for US national security but is also bad for the entire world.

1400 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani giving it his best, even though a lot of folks on 13 Bedar are more concerned with a day out with the family. He's going with "Iran has a special place in the Islamic family of nations" and "we are not seeking nuclear weapons but the malicious propaganda of Iran's enemies will occur all the way through this process".

1115 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims that families of human rights activists in detention are being constantly harassed by security forces.

The website also reports that film director Jafar Panahi is enduring "dire conditions" in Evin Prison and his lawyer is being denied access to his file.

1105 GMT: Now Let's See What China Says (and Does). Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, has struck his pose after discussions with the Chinese, saying that Iran and China "agreed that tools such as sanctions have lost their effectiveness".

Jalili wasn't so certain, however, that Beijing would put out that same line --- "It's up to China to answer that" --- and the Chinese response so far is limited to a call for "flexibility" in dealing with Iran.

1100 GMT: We've posted a new analysis from Josh Shahryar, "The Clerical Challenge Continues".

1015 GMT: Economy Watch. RAHANA claims, "Workers at the Ahvaz Pipe Factory have not received their wages for over a year. Additionally, upon returning to work after the Nowrooz holidays, close to 300 of them were handed their pink slips."

1000 GMT: India, Iran, and Economy Watch. Conflicting news on India's approach to Tehran: Green Voice of Freedom is claiming confirmation of earlier reports that India's Reliance Industries will not renew a contract to import crude oil from Iran.

Juan Cole, however, writes:

New Delhi just yesterday broached reviving a plan to bring natural gas from Iran through Pakistan and thence to India. The $8 billion plan has been in limbo for two or three years. First, the US pressured the Asian Development Bank not to underwrite the project, raising the question of where the $8 bn. will come from. Then, there were ethnic disturbances by Baluch tribesmen in the area through which the pipeline would run, raising questions about how secure it would be (a question you would want answered before sinking $8 bn. into it) Finally, Iran asked for an unrealistically high price for the natural gas.

But [now] Pakistan is pledging to ensure security for the pipeline.

0830 GMT: Controlling the Students. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters passes on the news that five members of the Council to Defend the Right to Education, formed by "starred" (monitored) and banned university students in 2007, remain in prison, some of them facing long sentences.

The Council's latest statement asserts, “We testify before the Iranian people that our friends have done nothing but demand for their rights; all the allegations against them are baseless. The accusations are revenge the enemies of freedom are taking against starred students."

The five are Zia Nabavi, detained on 15 June and sentenced to 15 years and 74 lashes; Majid Dorri, arrested on 9 July and sentenced to 11 years; Mahdieh Golroo and Shiva Nazar Ahari, imprisoned in December; and Payman Aref, detained in June and sent back to prison in March, serving one year and taking 74 lashes.

0745 GMT: The Iran-China Talks. More indications that Beijing is maintaining a cautious position on Iran's nuclear programme (see 0520 GMT). Khabar Online notes the discussions with Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili but also considers Chinese moves towards the US-led "5+1" position on sanctions.

0540 GMT: Slipping By? An EA reader has noted that the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has linked the anniversary of the Republic to a call for a public voice today, via a video and Ayatollah Khomeini's statement on 1 February 1979:

Everyone is entitled to choose his or her destiny. How can our ancestors be the deciders for us? How can those who were around 80 to 100 years ago determine the destiny of a nation that would be born in future? This is a nation that its destiny should be determined by itself and at this time is saying that we do not want this king.

0520 GMT: Yesterday was the 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic, confirmed by a public vote in which 98.2 percent supported the Republic and a new Constitution. The day slipped by, however, with little fanfare: no prominent Government statements, no opposition demonstrations, indeed little of note on the domestic front.

Indeed, much of the chatter looked forward to today, Sizdah Bedar, the 13th day of the New Year and the last day of Nowruz celebrations. It literally translates as "get out [outside] of the 13th", referring to the invocation to be outside with family enjoying nature. Pedestrian has a humourous look, with mixed memories, at the occasion.

The only tribute we picked up to the Republic's formation was an indirect one: 31 years after the public issued its verdict on its system of rule, Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini, were he still alive, would support another referendum on the Islamic leadership, including velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

Away from the lack of ceremony yesterday, Baha'i and women's rights activist Dorsa Sobhani has been released from solitary confinement. Sobhani was arrested on 7 March after the family home was raided five days earlier.

On the international front, Barack Obama has tried to counter the trip of Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, to Beijing with a call to Chinese leader Hu Jintao. Obama said, according to the White House, that Hu's attendance at a summit on nuclear security Washington later this month would be an "important opportunity for them to address their shared interest in stopping nuclear proliferation and protecting against nuclear terrorism".

We're still looking for any sign of an outcome from the Jalili trip. It is the lead story for the Islamic Republic News Agency, but the lengthy article has little more than the superficial public statements: Jalili with "Iran's approach is that people benefit from peaceful nuclear energy" and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declaring that the relationship between the two countries is very important.

Comments

[Catherine]

Earlier this week I saw a headline fly by that India had suddenly cancelled a visit to Iran without mentioning the reason why. Now, India's top privately run refiner, Reliance Industries, will not renew a contract to import crude oil from Iran for financial year 2010.
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/apr/01/1586

Scott, do you see this as a sign of the Obama admin's behind-the-scenes efforts to discourage individual companies from doing business with Iran?

[Catherine]

This is how they do it - How Iran Silences Unwanted News by Jamming Satellite Signals Carrying Foreign Media:
http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=10258000

[Catherine]

Roxana Saberi was on The Daily Show last night to talk about her new book, "Between Two Worlds: My Life in Captivity in Iran," and the five months that she spent in an Iranian prison.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/01/roxana-saberi-former-iran_n_521668.html

[Scott Lucas]

Catherine,

Yes, but see update....

S.

[afi]

Just got this info, not sure if it is accurate
Unconfirmed news (ParsTV) reports rahbare IRI drove over an explosive road mine. His driver and mohafez dead, and "rahbar" seriolsy injured or possibly dead @ shoosh - khozestan.
Ahmadi and Rafsenjani went to Khozestan for an urgent and secret meeting

[ange paris]

The decision is taken by 5+1 and other emergent countries to "destroy" iranian regime; Flynt Leverett and Hllary, Parsi , Marandi and other "sympathisants" of the regime instead of wasting their time by making lectures hoping manipulate the west, have to advice this regime to choose between two solutions both of them are negatif for the regime, because they have no longer a positif solution( for them to stay the winners) , it's a choice between the "bad" and the" worst"solution ;

-the "bad" is that they have to remove immediately AN, spreading justice in the country by arresting the killers, rapists and all the agents of torture in the prisons, targetting to save the "Islamic regime".

-the worst is to continue as the have begun, and their islamic regime will be overthrown to be replaced by a "secular" regime.

Good luck dear advisorsin your bargaining and as you see "ma bishomarim".

[Scott Lucas]

Afi,

Thanks for this. Grateful to you and readers for any updates.

S.

[afi]

clashes have been reported from Isfahan
http://www.hambastegimeli.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5024:2010-04-02-09-29-13&catid=1:2009-09-22-08-56-28&Itemid=23

[ange paris]

Wow !!!!!!!

[ange paris]

Afi
Clash in Tehran as well , in the same link.

[mukharbish]

hmm. it seems the report linked by "afi" comes from that paragon of credibility and integrity, the mojahedin-e khalq.

[afi]

No I got it from an activist who is not mojahed. I can assure you. I cannot find anything about it either.

[afi]

protest in ouroumiyeh
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDYUcVDmLyM&feature=player_embedded

[afi]

From what I understand, they want Azabayejan to exist, they want schools teaching turkish language. As you can see they are trying not to display faces. However somebody stopped them asking what are they doing, "what you want to happen anyway?" sounds like nothing is going to happen so why to bother.

[danial]

@afi

"rahbare IRI" you mean Khamenei?

can you post links

[ange paris]

link of post n° 13 : they want to be taught in turkish language at school; I had this kind of discussion with somebody who had the same thought and I don't agree with it because Iran has different ethnic populations and if all parts ask for their independance ( it will be the outcome of this kind of demand) , our country will be divided; why not to have turkish or kurdish language as an option in the education but" Farsi "or" persian" is the national language and I am proud of it; I don't want to see my country divided.

[afi]

the latest I got on that #5:
By the way Pars TV did not say that. Pars has complete news program twice a day by Sabet Eimani and Mojdeh Habibi every day. Every day they have a report on Iran by Lotfi from Paris. He mentioned this news and he said he can not verify that. In general half of the Lotfi's report is not verifiable, he has tendency to exaggerate a lot and he is famous for it.

[Megan]

Afi's post 13:20

The news of SL driving over a road mine is the 13 bedar prank; Iranians April Fool's day practical joke.

As far as I am concerned Khamenei drove over multiple road mines in June of 2009 when he sanctioned rigging of the presidential election. And he died of his injuries when he ordered murder of people who peacefully questioned the election results. The only thing left to do is to bury him.

[ange paris]

"As far as I am concerned Khamenei drove over multiple road mines in June of 2009 when he sanctioned rigging of the presidential election. And he died of his injuries when he ordered murder of people who peacefully questioned the election results. The only thing left to do is to bury him."

Well said Megan; it's unbelievable how has he betrayed iranians ! Nobody will forget it .

[Samuel]

ange paris,

"I don’t agree with it because Iran has different ethnic populations and if all parts ask for their independance ( it will be the outcome of this kind of demand) , our country will be divided; why not to have turkish or kurdish language as an option..."

For once I agree with you 100%.

[afi]

For number 5: watch Thursday April 1 news.. on http://sabetimani.com/