The Latest from Iran (22 April): This Isn't Over

1230 GMT: EA On the Move. Hopefully, we'll be relocating from the US to the UK today, so updates will be restricted until tomorrow afternoon. My thanks to all for their patience, and for keeping up going through news and comments while I'm heading home.

1215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (If You Know Someone in MKO, You're a Criminal). There seems to be a pattern in a number of recent sentences, including death penalties. As we reported yesterday, six people have been handed down orders for execution because they are related to or acquainted with members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq "terrorist" movement.

An Iranian activist now reports that Monireh Rabaei has received a five-year sentence, upheld on appeal, on the basis that she has an uncle in Camp Ashraf in Iraq, home to many PMOI members. The following sentences have also been passed on the basis of "connections with MKO": Zia Nabavi 15 years, Ozra Ghazi-Mirsaied three years, and Mahdiyeh Golro 28 months.

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1115 GMT: Economy Watch. Rooz Online's claims of layoffs are not quite as dramatic as those in the Human Rights Activists report (see 1100 GMT), but they are still striking:

Labor news sources report the laying off of at least 2,500 industrial and leather workers in Ilam and Mashad. Counting other laid-off workers in industrial and large cities such as Abadan, Ahwaz, Khorramshahr and Shiraz, during the last two weeks, more than 4,000 workers have lost their jobs just in the recent past.

...The crisis in Iran’s industrial sector has reached such a level that, in an interview yesterday, the head of Iran’s House of Labor predicted the closure of hundreds of large and medium industrial firms per year and the subsequent laying off of 200,000 workers every year after that.

1100 GMT: Firings and Abuses. Human Rights Activists in Iran has released a report claimed more than 38,000 cases of firings and human rights abuses in Iran in the past month.

Of the cases, more than 90% (37,519) are the layoffs of workers in Iran, as 166 production lines in the country have been shut down every month, according to a labour official. At least 11 protests and gatherings have been staged by workers in the country in the last month alone.

The group cites 537 cases of abuse of students’ rights, 255 cases of abuse against political and civil activists, 34 cases of capital punishment, 259 cases of torture and prisoner abuse, at least seven cases of citizens killed in frontier provinces, 124 arrests and abuse of national minority rights, and 68 cases of arrest and abuses against religious minorities.

Human Rights Activists says that, because of the scale of the abuses and the difficulties in documenting them in a rigid security atmosphere, the cases are only a fraction of the abuses that are occurring.

1055 GMT: Is Google A Regime Enemy? The Iranian Labor News Agency reports that a ban on Google Images has been lifted by Iranian authorities, 24 hours after it was imposed.

1045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Women’s rights activist Dorsa Sobhani has been released after a detention of more than six weeks. Sobhani spent 25 days in solitary confinement.

The brother of Majid Tavakoli says that the student leader, detained on 7 December after a speech at a National Student Day rally, remains in solitary confinement.

Student activist Nader Ahsani has been re-arrested and taken to Evin Prison.

1040 GMT: "We Had to Save the System". A potentially explosive admission....

Aftab, from the weekly Panjareh, quotes an unnamed high-ranking intelligence official, who admits that post-election arrests, especially those of the first round of senior reformists, were planned ahead of the 12 June vote.

The detentions were a preventive measure because Iranian intelligence agencies anticipated major unrest which could get out of control. The official said, "Our law is not appropriate to fight against 'soft war', so we had to take these measures [to save the system]. The fifth statement of Mosharekat party [Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution] clearly speaks of establishing a secular system."

1030 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. On another front, Mehdi Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has warned the regime to "stop spreading lies" and to "beware of the time, when I speak out". Hashemi, who is currently in London, has been threatened by the Iranian authorities with prosecution for alleged corruption and misuse of funds during the Presidential election.

0945 GMT: After an extended break, we return today to a series of powerful responses to the regime, all of which make clear that the challenge to legitimacy will not be crushed.

In a separate entry, we have posted the latest statement of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, criticising the Government for its misuse of Islam in its lies and detentions.

We also have a second feature: from inside Evin Prison, the detained journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad has written a letter to the Supreme Leader requesting that he "declare this year the year of national reconciliation and do not fear the reproach". In itself, that is not a direct challenge to the regime --- it acknowledges Khamenei's authority, after all --- however, the letter has special potency because Nourizad's detention was prompted by a previous appeal to the Supreme Leader to recognise the illegitimacies of the election.

Mohsen Armin, member of Parliament and former Vice Speaker, has also launched a spirited criticism of the Government. A senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, which is now under threat of suspension, Armin denounced lies and threats of prosecution and demanded that the regime address the basic issues of rights and equality.

MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz has asserted that the inability of the Ahmadinejad Government to make appropriate use of $370 billion oil income is a "catastrophe".

The Latest from Iran (2 April): Slipping By

1420 GMT: Obama Talks the Tough Talk. Continuing the public approach of a push for international sanctions, President Obama has told a US television network, "I have said before that we don't take any options off the table, and we're going to continue to ratchet up the pressure and examine how they respond. But we're going to do so with a unified international community -- that puts us in a much stronger position."

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At the same time, note how Obama carefully distinguishes himself from the line of other Washington talking heads demanding action because Iran is on the verge of military nuclear capability:

All the evidence indicates that the Iranians are trying to develop the capacity to develop nuclear weapons (emphasis added). They might decide that, once they have that capacity that they'd hold off right at the edge -- in order not to incur -- more sanctions.

But, if they've got nuclear weapons-building capacity -- and they are flouting international resolutions, that creates huge destabilizing effects in the region and will trigger an arms race in the Middle East that is bad for US national security but is also bad for the entire world.

1400 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani giving it his best, even though a lot of folks on 13 Bedar are more concerned with a day out with the family. He's going with "Iran has a special place in the Islamic family of nations" and "we are not seeking nuclear weapons but the malicious propaganda of Iran's enemies will occur all the way through this process".

1115 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims that families of human rights activists in detention are being constantly harassed by security forces.

The website also reports that film director Jafar Panahi is enduring "dire conditions" in Evin Prison and his lawyer is being denied access to his file.

1105 GMT: Now Let's See What China Says (and Does). Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, has struck his pose after discussions with the Chinese, saying that Iran and China "agreed that tools such as sanctions have lost their effectiveness".

Jalili wasn't so certain, however, that Beijing would put out that same line --- "It's up to China to answer that" --- and the Chinese response so far is limited to a call for "flexibility" in dealing with Iran.

1100 GMT: We've posted a new analysis from Josh Shahryar, "The Clerical Challenge Continues".

1015 GMT: Economy Watch. RAHANA claims, "Workers at the Ahvaz Pipe Factory have not received their wages for over a year. Additionally, upon returning to work after the Nowrooz holidays, close to 300 of them were handed their pink slips."

1000 GMT: India, Iran, and Economy Watch. Conflicting news on India's approach to Tehran: Green Voice of Freedom is claiming confirmation of earlier reports that India's Reliance Industries will not renew a contract to import crude oil from Iran.

Juan Cole, however, writes:

New Delhi just yesterday broached reviving a plan to bring natural gas from Iran through Pakistan and thence to India. The $8 billion plan has been in limbo for two or three years. First, the US pressured the Asian Development Bank not to underwrite the project, raising the question of where the $8 bn. will come from. Then, there were ethnic disturbances by Baluch tribesmen in the area through which the pipeline would run, raising questions about how secure it would be (a question you would want answered before sinking $8 bn. into it) Finally, Iran asked for an unrealistically high price for the natural gas.

But [now] Pakistan is pledging to ensure security for the pipeline.

0830 GMT: Controlling the Students. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters passes on the news that five members of the Council to Defend the Right to Education, formed by "starred" (monitored) and banned university students in 2007, remain in prison, some of them facing long sentences.

The Council's latest statement asserts, “We testify before the Iranian people that our friends have done nothing but demand for their rights; all the allegations against them are baseless. The accusations are revenge the enemies of freedom are taking against starred students."

The five are Zia Nabavi, detained on 15 June and sentenced to 15 years and 74 lashes; Majid Dorri, arrested on 9 July and sentenced to 11 years; Mahdieh Golroo and Shiva Nazar Ahari, imprisoned in December; and Payman Aref, detained in June and sent back to prison in March, serving one year and taking 74 lashes.

0745 GMT: The Iran-China Talks. More indications that Beijing is maintaining a cautious position on Iran's nuclear programme (see 0520 GMT). Khabar Online notes the discussions with Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili but also considers Chinese moves towards the US-led "5+1" position on sanctions.

0540 GMT: Slipping By? An EA reader has noted that the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has linked the anniversary of the Republic to a call for a public voice today, via a video and Ayatollah Khomeini's statement on 1 February 1979:

Everyone is entitled to choose his or her destiny. How can our ancestors be the deciders for us? How can those who were around 80 to 100 years ago determine the destiny of a nation that would be born in future? This is a nation that its destiny should be determined by itself and at this time is saying that we do not want this king.

0520 GMT: Yesterday was the 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic, confirmed by a public vote in which 98.2 percent supported the Republic and a new Constitution. The day slipped by, however, with little fanfare: no prominent Government statements, no opposition demonstrations, indeed little of note on the domestic front.

Indeed, much of the chatter looked forward to today, Sizdah Bedar, the 13th day of the New Year and the last day of Nowruz celebrations. It literally translates as "get out [outside] of the 13th", referring to the invocation to be outside with family enjoying nature. Pedestrian has a humourous look, with mixed memories, at the occasion.

The only tribute we picked up to the Republic's formation was an indirect one: 31 years after the public issued its verdict on its system of rule, Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini, were he still alive, would support another referendum on the Islamic leadership, including velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

Away from the lack of ceremony yesterday, Baha'i and women's rights activist Dorsa Sobhani has been released from solitary confinement. Sobhani was arrested on 7 March after the family home was raided five days earlier.

On the international front, Barack Obama has tried to counter the trip of Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, to Beijing with a call to Chinese leader Hu Jintao. Obama said, according to the White House, that Hu's attendance at a summit on nuclear security Washington later this month would be an "important opportunity for them to address their shared interest in stopping nuclear proliferation and protecting against nuclear terrorism".

We're still looking for any sign of an outcome from the Jalili trip. It is the lead story for the Islamic Republic News Agency, but the lengthy article has little more than the superficial public statements: Jalili with "Iran's approach is that people benefit from peaceful nuclear energy" and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declaring that the relationship between the two countries is very important.