Iran First-Hand: Fear and Loathing in Tehran (Butler)

Katharine Butler of The Independent of London, who was given a visa to cover Tehran's nuclear disarmament conference, seized the opportunity to assess the mood of Iranians over the internal situation. Butler is shaky in her understanding of some of the politics, such as the situation and methods of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, and I am not wholly in agreement with her reading of events. Still, this is the most vivid snapshot of Tehran I have seen in a "Western" publication in months:

If showing affection in public was the indication of a happy society, then the signs from Iran would be encouraging. At the outdoor tables of a restaurant near the base of the snowy Alborz mountains north-west of Tehran, a young couple is not exactly canoodling, but his arm is stretched behind her shoulders and she's resting her head on his neck. The parks in the centre of the Iranian capital too are full of youthful couples holding hands, the odd pair even kissing with impunity as they stroll in the April sunshine.

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 A springtime of free love in the Islamic Republic? Hardly. Not, in any case, for the election protesters on death row, or the political prisoners whose lawyers claim they have been dosed with sedative drugs before their trials. The atmosphere has not been as oppressive for years, so a little steam needs to be taken out of the pressure cooker: let the young hold hands, and they'll think less about their stagnant lives or demonstrating in the streets. That, at any rate, is one local interpretation I am given.

 
No visas have been issued to Western media organisations to report from Iran since the disputed June 2009 election and the popular uprising that followed. But with the attention of Iran's Western adversaries fixated on trying to isolate Iran over its supposed nuclear threat, and Barack Obama seeking to drive a fourth round of sanctions through the UN, the government's quixotic-as-ever response is to host an international summit on nuclear disarmament, and invite the Western media in to cover it.

From the moment you slip your headscarf on in preparation for the pre-dawn touchdown at Imam Khomeini Airport you feel literally hemmed in. Getting the stamp on your entry visa is just the start, then you need a laminated press pass, a stamped certificate detailing in which areas you have authorisation to move.

Iranians have a penchant for polite ambiguity. This time there is polite clarity. I can apply for interviews, but it will be a waste of time. More tellingly, I am warned that no amount of paperwork will protect me if I am detained by an "irregular" branch of the security or intelligence services while interviewing members of the public. Is this perhaps an indication of the internal struggles that are said to be raging?

The Laleh International Hotel is where visiting journalists are encouraged to stay because it is run now by the Islamic Guidance Ministry. Before the 1979 revolution it was the American-owned Intercontinental. The blue outdoor swimming pool stands empty, the famous wine cellar is long gone. Most of the guests are either Chinese businessmen or groups of elderly Americans on archaeology tours, the women gamely struggling with tunics and hijabs over breakfast. They are charmed by the legendary Iranian hospitality they've encountered everywhere. If they notice the men from intelligence hanging around the lobby, they don't seem bothered.

It takes me a while to understand why so many people reach silently for their mobile phones, only speaking when they've removed the batteries. "Even among ourselves, we don't talk about the political situation now. You get into a shared taxi and the music is turned up loud immediately," says one who returned from exile to support the 1979 Islamic revolution. "People are scared. We have memories of the Savak."

The last time I was here, in spring 2009, people were fired up about the impending election. They openly attacked the government's mishandling of the economy, the rampant corruption. Even conservative girls in chadors were openly rude about the President. Ahmadinejad was "a joker", "a clown", "a big puppet".

In the 10 months since the poll, the prevailing atmosphere has grown queasy with fear and suspicion. Months of arrests, detentions, harsh sentencing, forced confessions, reports of people being raped or beaten to death in detention, and televised show trials have cast such such fear that some Iranians have begun comparing the atmosphere to the one that prevailed in the Iraq of Saddam and the Baath party.

Under the returned President Ahmadinejad the internal clampdown on "enemies of the regime" has been stepped up. Sons of pillars of the establishment have been arrested. TV economists, blogging clerics, even internationally acclaimed figures like the film maker Jafar Panahi have been jailed. Two of those arrested during the protests have been convicted as "ringleaders" and hanged, nine more are awaiting execution. A purge of liberal academics is believed to be under way in the universities.

The Savak were the Shah's feared secret police. Suspected enemies of the despotic monarch were fried alive on electric plates in their torture chambers. Nobody felt safe, people were terrorised just by the notion that anyone, even their best friend, could be a Savak spy. And anyone could be held and tortured even if they had done nothing wrong, just to spread fear.

Nobody is suggesting yet that things are as bad as in the final days of the despotic Western-backed Shah. And whether Nokia mobile phones can really be used as conversational bugging devices (mobile phone calls and texts are routinely monitored) seems unlikely. But the powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps, an elite parallel army, controls the Ministry of Communications. And many believe that the Guards mounted what was in effect a coup during the election. If people fear they are being listened to, the effect could be as chilling as it was in 1978.

The Basij, a volunteer youth militia controlled by the Revolutionary Guards, administered much of the brutality to the street protesters. They number at least a million, and are hated. The wife of a friend went to help her 18-year-old daughter buy a new jacket. "We searched for something that would make her look ugly. The last thing you want is to enrage the Basij by looking attractive." "Attractive" is code for provocative, and these days only the foolhardy would seek to provoke.

The police-state atmosphere sits oddly with the urbanised familiarity. Parts of Tehran could be Germany, or Belgium. The efficient air-conditioned metro puts London's Tube to shame. On the surface, things look normal.

But the political landscape has undergone a transformation since the election. The checks and balances built into the complex architecture of the state, which used to give Iran a plurality of voices and power centres, have it seems, given way to something more sinister.

Since the disputed poll, power has tightened around a radically hard-line troika: the Supreme Leader, the President and the elite parallel army, the Revolutionary Guards. Parliament, parts of the clerical establishment and even the judiciary have, according to insiders, lost ground. Some of the clergy in Iran's holy city of Qom are horrified by the repression they believe is dragging the values of the Islamic revolution into disrepute. But more is at stake than the survival of the Islamic state. The struggle between the regime's elites is also about who will control the spoils of an oil economy worth billions of dollars.

Although a layman, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the victorious President, wears his faith on his sleeve. He is a devotee of a millenarian sect who believe that Imam Mehdi, the Shia saviour, who disappeared down a well 1,000 years ago will return in "a time of chaos", a return that is imminent, and that his followers have a duty to prepare for. He emerges triumphantly onto the stage at the nuclear conference after international delegates have first been warmed up with rousing music, sung Koranic verses, and a black-and-white video showing terrifying images of the aftermath of Hiroshima. He greets a mullah with both arms raised theatrically, and then asks us to join him in a prayer for the reappearance of the Twelfth Imam.

Poetry, it is said, flows in the blood of Iranians. That cut little ice when Abbas, a young poet, went to the Behesht-e Zahra cemetery to pay his respects to those who died in the protests.

"We were beaten like animals," he recalls. "They accused us of tearing up pictures of God. It was lies, all lies. We didn't tear up anything."

Seeing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 71, the Supreme Leader unmasked as a ruthless political operator was the biggest shock of the election. "We thought he was a religious figurehead, a fair man, who stayed above the fray," the young poet says. "But then we realised he, not Ahmadinejad, was the one in charge and he condoned the shooting of unarmed people in the streets."

I meet Abbas in a wooded spot in Laleh park, almost dark with the shade of tall pine trees. The mothers of the detained or disappeared tried to gather here once a week after the upheaval of last summer but were bundled away by police. One of the poet's friends, a brilliant student, was recently sentenced to four years in jail for leading protests.

Iranians like them, are lost to the Islamic Republic; they crossed a threshold last June. They went out on the streets to protest an election and ended up rejecting the entire system. The structural weakness, the poet thinks, is the contradiction in Ayatollah Khomeini's constitution between the doctrine of Velayat-I-Faqhi, the sovereignty of the Supreme Leader, and the sovereignty of the people. "How can Khamenei set himself up as the only one who judges what is good, or moral, or who is deserving or within the law? Where does his authority or mandate come from? And if he is infallible, what is the point of elections? It is nonsense. We cannot progress as a society until we shake off our isolation and the superstitions of the people who rule us."

The West's fixation with the nuclear programme is a distraction from what has happened since the election, the poet says. "We hear nobody speaking out about the torture. Does anybody care about our sorrow?"

The young woman accompanying the poet has brought along her French books, her passport to a life abroad, she hopes. Far from being "rich north Tehranis with sunglasses", the kind derided by George Galloway and Iran's ultra-conservatives during the upheaval, they make their living in low-paid clerical jobs earning about $200 a month. He is originally from a provincial village. His parents are conservative and religious. In some ways, they sum up Iran's tragedy. Educated, intellectual and (like most Iranians) under 30; yet neither sees a future unless they can escape.

Real change will take 10 or maybe 15 years, he predicts. "It will happen, but it won't happen for us."

In the meantime, the poet is a victim of the increasingly intolerant censors. "Some poems come back with just one or two words left in a sentence," he says, with a mix of comedy and despair. He tries to get around them by pleading that the love poems are about the love of God. "You see, the conditions, even for freedom of thought, are deplorable."

As we talk, a man in stonewashed jeans and dark glasses walks a little too slowly past not to arouse suspicion. We lapse into silence. Not until he is well out of earshot do we resume, laughing nervously. "We could just say we are talking about some research. You wouldn't believe how stupid they can be," says the poet, perhaps to reassure himself.

Will they go back onto the streets? "For now, the people have no energy," the poet says sadly. "They are drained by fear, of watching over their shoulders. We don't know who we can trust."

Leaving the park, I stumble on an alter-cation between a bearded man in a uniform carrying a truncheon and a young girl. "If you're hot, Miss, why don't you go home and lie in front of a fan. But don't come to a public place dressed like that." Her scarf is indeed skimpy, pushed back to the crown of her head. Otherwise she's modestly covered. She beats a retreat, fixing the scarf, not chastened, cheeks flushed with anger and humiliation as we look on embarrassed.

Friday prayers remains the longest-running piece of political theatre in the Middle East. It's the stage on which Iran acts out its part as the West's pantomime villain: stern, alarming, forever threatening to lay waste to America and Israel.

In reality, it feels a lot more like a well- organised social gathering, and not a very big one when you consider the population of Tehran. My bag disappears into a mobile van for security screening, and mobile phones have to be surrendered to the friendly usher women in chadors with walkie-talkies. There's a printed programme, like the line-up for a concert at Hyde Park. There's even a press office. Ten o'clock start, political speech slated for 12.25. Today it's the Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, on nuclear power. Regiments of the armed forces process down the surrounding streets and into the prayer enclosure.

Women are segregated into a side area, behind a high screen. Those praying place their handbags in front of them as they kneel in rows on the prayer mats.

It's not easy to keep focused on Mr Mottaki's message because of the constant repetition of denunciations, suspicions, warnings, and exhortations. It's not that Iran does not have many justified grievances against the West, grievances that are shared by Iranians of all leanings, from the British-American backed coup which overthrew its democratically elected government in 1953, to the West's endorsement of Israel's secret nuclear weapons arsenal. It's just that he repeats them ad nauseam in a long-winded fashion.

Suddenly he bellows: "The whole world is shouting, 'Nukes for all!'" To which the reply comes "God is Great!".

Then he summons the crescendo, his voice rising to a high-pitched cry.."The Great God will advocate on our behalf....this great nation [louder]...Iran's good answer to the US is [louder]..."

Then the ritual roar "Down with America!"

Then it's Israel's turn. "The Zionist entity should know they are getting one step closer to their own death. So we say....Death to Israel!"

Mottaki's narrative reflects the sense of victimhood about Iran's place in the world. But I wonder too if it isn't about the imperative to sustain a sense of continuing crisis with an external enemy. The headlines on the front pages of the pro-government newspapers like the ultra-conservative Kayhan, serve a similar function. One day last week Kayhan announced: "Obama admits his role in organising the post-election turmoil in Iran..

Behind the prayer area, under a row of trees, a few women take a break in the shade, chatting quietly on the park benches.

Zahra Vaezi, 64, is covered from head to toe in her black chador. "Of course nuclear power is our right. I'm a housewife myself, so it doesn't really affect me, but our scientists need to have this technology."

But is it a good thing to shriek "Death to America" at a prayer event? She smiles: "Well I hope you're not from America, but yes, definitely! You see, America doesn't want us to exist. It's not just that, but they don't care about our faith. They are our enemies."

Before the revolution, she travelled to the UK and Europe. "I would love you to come to my house, you would be so welcome," she says, writing her phone number in my book.

She asks if I'll excuse her because the white-turbaned Mr Sedighi, the presiding cleric, is next and a favourite. Mr Sedighi sermonises in what sounds like a kind, reassuring drone. God loves you no matter what, he is saying. Then he tells worshippers that immorality, or women who dress immodestly can cause earthquakes.

I approach one of the few young people visible at prayers. Zahra Behnoush, a 21-year-old law student in skinny jeans and black headgear like a balaclava admits she only came to buy books. But her script is similar to that of the older woman. It is Iran's "right" she says, to have nuclear energy. "America wants to stop us because they hate Islam, that's their only problem."

"The protests were wrong. The election was credible. Those who demonstrated made an egregious blunder. They are now at a dead end. I'm sure they are looking for another opportunity, but Iran is a strong country, safe and secure, and free."

The law student seems to speak with conviction. The problem for the regime is that the people who attend Friday prayers are the ones who already believe in the West's evil intentions. For countless Iranians, Friday Prayers is the stage where on June 19 last year, Ayatollah Khamenei sealed his loss of legitimacy, and his slide into disgrace, by demanding an end to the protests.

Just behind the main prayer area, women are distributing free snacks piled on tables. Everyone is entitled to one pineapple juice and a wrapped muffin in a clear plastic box. At the end, the soldiers coming out are all carrying their free boxes, like children coming home from a party.

To most of Iran's Facebook generation, the 30-year-old rhetoric about America seems about as desiccated as the dreary talk-shows between bearded men that seem to dominate state television.

Near the university bookshops (where Barack Obama's autobiography is incidentally on sale) a fashionably turned-out young woman with an extravagant fringe is waiting for a bus. She's 19 and on her way to the cleaning job which she combines with her studies.

She's dismissive of the endless chatter about nuclear rights. "One day we are celebrating Iran joining the nuclear club, another day is in honour of yellow cake [the raw ingredient of uranium]. What I think is that Iran should be stopped from getting nuclear energy. Not for weapons and not even for electricity." Why? "Why do we need these nukes? We need jobs. Besides, they can't be trusted to build a car,"

Is she worried about sanctions? Yes, if they hit us – the ordinary people. But if they really work on the people at the top, then America should do it.

But sanctions, in official circles, are dismissed as a joke. Iran's economy, far from going to rack and ruin, is so resilient and strong, insists the Minister of Commerce Mahdi Ghazanfari, that they will have no impact. Much of this is bluster, and Iran is believed to be already stockpiling imports of refined oil (petrol) because while it has massive reserves of crude it does not have enough of its own refining capacity to keep the pumps going. In Mr Ghazanfari's parallel universe, exports of such Iranian goods as pistachios, cement and carpets soared to $21 billion last year. This will help cancel out the effects of sanctions on the oil sector, he boasts, before asking: "After 30 years of sanctions, have you seen any shortcomings here?"

Projected in front of us are colour slides of the dazzling Iranian pavilion for the imminent Expo 2010 in Shanghai. "We hope it will be an opportunity to destroy the negative propaganda we observe in the Western media," Mr Ghazanfari notes dryly. "Practically all countries are chasing after new markets. The sellers need us," he adds. "It is the buyer who is the king."

His non-oil export figures might be suspect (oil and its products account for more than 80 per cent of Iran's exports), but he has a point. Many European corporations trade with Iran selling everything from household appliances to telecommunications equipment. The US wants sanctions targeted at the Revolutionary Guards, but China and Russia are embedded in the energy and defence sectors and will be mindful to protect their long-term interests.

Neither the vice-like grip of the Revolutionary Guards over the economy, nor the widespread public disgust that this mob-like power provokes, is discussed by the Commerce minister. The Guards are thought to control at least a third of the economy, owning vast conglomerates and banking empires, with front companies abroad which will be an extremely difficult force for the West to topple. Their activities reach into everything, from imports of bootleg vodka to exports of Persian cats.

One Iranian I am introduced to has an uncle who served in the Revolutionary Guards having previously been decorated for his service in the Iran-Iraq war. This uncle is no genius – he never finished High School, the family say with disdain. But now he lives "like a king, a millionaire from exporting stone to Lebanon. The stone quarries and all other mining activities are controlled by the Guards, so the uncle doesn't have to be a great businessman; there's no competition.

From the "roof of Tehran" (Bem e Tehran) there's a spectacularly panoramic view of the vast concrete capital in the valley below. Today, the air is unusually smog-free so you can almost see in the windows of the apartment towers. You can also see satellite dishes everywhere.

There is a strange irony about these illegal links with the outside world. On the one hand they give Iranians access to another reality, a welcome change from the worthy one-note fare on offer from state television. And satellite TV is what many in the West assume will tip Iran into a velvet revolution. Yet the dishes symbolise something that may help explain why, despite the fear and loathing, the sorrow of the poet, the young cleaning lady, the language student and millions like them, Iran is not at the tipping point.

The government accuses channels like BBC Persian, Euronews and Deutsche Welle of encouraging sedition. So why not seize the dishes and prosecute the owners, I ask one householder. "Well sometimes they jam the foreign stations. But the dishes are part of the game," he explains. "They turn a blind eye, allowing us to infringe the law, because then you are compromised, you are drawn into a kind of compact. It makes you less likely to raise a fuss about bigger things because you've been allowed to get away with a transgression. That is the game they play with us." It's like allowing young people to hold hands in public, or subsidising the price of bread: it takes steam out of the pressure cooker.

Inflation might be running at 20 per cent and it is common to have to work two jobs. The average salary for a graduate in an office job with years of experience is $300 to $400 a month. Internet access is filtered and slowed, your mobile phone is probably tapped, you can't travel abroad much, but it's not a failed state, even after 30 years of sanctions.

While life is hard economically for millions of Iranians, for the workers in car or china factories who reportedly have not been paid for weeks, for many of the middle classes, it's not yet bad enough to risk challenging the status quo.

Thanks to generous subsidies paid for out of oil revenue, gas and electricity are almost free. Food staples are still relatively cheap and petrol is subsidised. Education is free and health provisions good. As long as you challenge nothing, you can even negotiate some decent perks and live a reasonably satisfactory life shopping in Tajrish, where the stores sell slinky dresses, hair extensions and a lot of nail varnish.

"The Shah made the mistake of not making allies, he failed to keep people satisfied. That was the lesson the revolutionaries learned," one beneficiary of the largesse admitted.

Tajrish shopping district caters for the richer, more secular types. The stores here sell slinky dresses, fishnet tights, hair extensions, a lot of nail varnish. "Before the revolution, you should have seen Iran," one store owner, a man with staring eyes, tells me. "The women could wear whatever they wanted. Minis, maxis, hotpants, everything. It was so...free." He keeps repeating the word "Free!" He might be glossing over the reign of terror overseen by the Shah.

And what of the Green Movement? He slides the palm of one hand over the other in a gesture that suggests it's finished. "Hitler! Our leader, he is like Hitler."

On the other side of the city, at the Grand Bazaar, the merchants, a powerful force, traditionally allied to the forces of clerical conservatism, lament the high inflation but on the record are wary about offering a political view. "Everything is good, very good," I'm told repeatedly.

Down a side alley, through a maze of shops and souks, the carpet wholesalers can be found. Here "Mr A" unrolls a stunning silk rug depicting Persian gardens that would fetch $3,000 in London he says. It can be mine for $700. I think he knows I am not going to buy the carpet, but he wants me to see the colours and textures.

The big carpet dealers from London used to come to him, not buying in ones or twos but hundreds at a time. Now, there are no dealers and few tourists. "All I have left is these people," he says, gesturing to an elderly pair who don't look like wealthy customers. The man has a weather-beaten face like a farmer. "They are Iranian families buying because carpets are what you must buy for your son or daughter when they get married."

His nephew interjects, telling him in Farsi to be careful what he says. "She can put these things on the internet."

"I'm not saying anything I don't defend", says Mr A. "I just don't know why we can't be a modern country. We have beautiful things to show the world."

You should change taxis twice. Don't ask for the intersection of Khosravi Street and Salehi Street or you'll arouse suspicion," I'm told. "Pretend you're going somewhere else. Half of the taxi drivers are spies." I wanted to see the spot where Neda Agha Soltan was killed by a bullet from the gun of a Basij militiaman as she attended a peaceful demonstration on 20 June last year. The final blood-soaked moments of her life were caught on video and seen around the world within hours. For a while it looked like the outpouring of grief over Neda would change the face of the Middle East.

Of course there is nothing official there to commemorate what sympathisers call "Neda Street". Just the word "Neda" in Farsi scrawled in green paint on one or two of the adjoining alleys. The 27-year-old was buried in Behesht e Zahra cemetery. Her grave has been desecrated twice. A government minister has suggested that she was shot by the CIA and the head of the state broadcaster claimed that the videos of her death were made by the BBC.

Many people's faith in the Islamic Republic died with Neda that day.

In a few weeks' time, the first anniversary of the election comes around – and the anniversary of Neda's death. The elderly cleric Mehdi Karroubi who came last against Ahmadinejad in the election has since emerged as a courageous figure and is calling on supporters to mount a renewed assault in the streets. But anti-government forces are a broad coalition, from women's rights activists to labour unions to students and journalists, to old-style political reformists. Despite all the social networking, the tweeting and YouTube information streams, they appear leaderless and drained of impetus. Their last show of strength was on the anniversary of the revolution in February.

The ongoing ill-treatment of political prisoners (some detainees were, alleges Karroubi, raped or tortured to death in the aftermath of the vote) caused profound shock and disgust. This issue is now turning into a political faultline under the regime. Last week, a group of political prisoners sent an open letter to the Grand Ayatollahs in Qom, claiming they were being subjected to "physical, sexual and psychological torture".

The letter said they were warned that if they hired independent lawyers they would be given heavier sentences. Some former prisoners allege they were given up to 12 anti-depressant drugs a day. More significant even than the allegations, is that the complainants went over the head of the Supreme Leader.

"Don't let some individuals, who call themselves the unknown soldiers of the hidden Imam (the agents and interrogators of Intelligence Ministry), and who have caused us all these sufferings, damage you, your religious teachings and our hope. Is there anyone who would answer to the cry for help of us, the oppressed?!" their letter pleaded.

Ahmadinejad and those hardline elements may have the upper hand for now. But the President may well face an internal challenge from pragmatic conservatives and factions of the clergy. Western hopes that this could usher in regime change would be misplaced. The challenge would come because one branch of the elite believes a competing section has mismanaged things badly and represents a threat to the survival of the revolution.

It is also worth remembering that neither Karroubi nor Mir Hossein Moussavi, both under virtual house arrest (Moussavi uses Facebook pages to disseminate his messages) ran on a ticket of radical reform, let alone dismantling the Islamic Republic. They have recently spoken of toning down the "green slogans" because they go beyond demands for a return to the values of Ayatollah Khomeini.

While I'm in Iran, the reformist former President Mohammed Khatami, who once enjoyed the popularity of a rock star is stopped from travelling abroad. The fear apparently, is he could become a Khomeini-style leader in exile capable of rallying the protest movement and destabilising the regime. But even the travel ban has not, as some supporters hoped, provoked him into an open confrontation with Ahmadinejad.

The secular-minded now look to the West and maybe to the destabilising power of economic isolation. But here too lies a trap. It gives the hardliners and the forces of violence a further reason to point and say, this is a Western plot and you are the agents of foreign powers – and thus a pretext for more repression.

And nobody thinks that those who have divided up the economic spoils, the vast sums of oil money that power gives access to, will give it up easily.

"Just now, they spread rumours against themselves," a source tells me. "They whisper of change, that something is happening soon. Perhaps Rafsanjani [the reformist cleric and former president] has a plan. He is orchestrating something that will challenge the hardliners."

Why would they brief against themselves, I ask. "Because it dampens down activity," she explains. "After all, If you're a life prisoner you dig a tunnel, but if you think you're going to be out in six months, you do nothing, you just wait."

Iran: The Establishment Frets Over the Supreme Leader

Mr Verde is back, taking a long look at manoeuvres within the Iranian "establishment":

In recent weeks some members of the establishment (Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati and Ahmad Khatami, the Islamic Coaltion Party's Habibollah Asgaroladi, and recently Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi) have changed tack. The clerics and politicians had been accusing the post-election protestors and their leaders, specifically Iran's reformists, of trying to overthrow the Islamic Republic in collusion with the West.

However, in the last few weeks the talk from the establishment figures is about attacks on the Supreme Leader. There is hardly any mention of “barandazi” (overthrow of regime) these days. Instead, the words are of conspiracies to limit the power of or to remove the Leader. The declarations that Khamenei is the best possible Supreme Leader give the game away --- why make such declarations if no one doubts him?


Recently Mesbah Yazdi, a strong backer of President Ahamdinejad, was the alleged source of some strange comments about the principle of “velayat-e-faqih” (clerical authority). He was quoted as saying that the “velayat-e-faqih” does not need to be the most prominent “marja” (source of emulation). He supported this with the assertation that, at the time of the 1979 Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini was not the most prominent “marja”.

Although this might be seen as an indirect attack on Khomeini’s credibility --- it is well known that Khomeini and Mebah had serious disagreements --- the comment may be an attempt to argue in favor of Khamenei as “velayat-e-faqih”. Mesbah Yazdi has some religious credentials that Khamenei lacks, and his comments were reportedly to religious scholars at the Qom Seminary.

Mesbah Yazdi supposedly said that, although the Supreme Leader is chosen by God, if the people do not accept him, he should step aside. If true, this is a reversal of Mesbah Yazdi's previous statements that the “velayat-e-faqih” is chosen by God and the people’s opinion does not matter.

Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi are now referring to Khamenei’s statements with sarcasm and challenging him directly (although they are still not naming him). Earlier this year, Khamenei likened the regime to a rescue ship and said that some insiders are being left behind and the ship is sailing. Karroubi's response was to poke fun in his Nowruz message, likening the regime not to a ship but to a small dinghy full of unsavoury characters. Mousavi later added, "They say we have left the regime’s ship, well we have not left the ship of Islam", implying that the regime is no longer on the Islamic path.

So the question arises: are the recent changes in the speeches by the establishment figures an indication that Khamenei is facing problems from regime insiders and not just Mousavi, Karroubi, and other reformists over his credentials as Supreme Leader?

The Latest from Iran (27 April): An Opposition Wave?

1840 GMT: The Uranium Squeeze. Time magazine notices a key point that we've mentioned for some time, "Iran's need to find fresh supplies of raw uranium supplies is increasingly urgent, according to some reports."

1830 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). Following the announcement by major French firm Total that it will pull out of Iran  if US sanctions proceed and the defiant stance of Iranian officials that absolutely nothing was wrong with energy supplies --- see 0540 and 1050 GMT), Italian company Eni says it is "working on handing over the operatorship of the Iranian Darquain oil field to local partners".

NEW Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “We Will Make The Nation Victorious”
Iran: The Mousavi 4-Point Message “Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"
Iran Exclusive: A Birthday Message to Detained Journalist Baghi from His Daughter
The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View

1700 GMT: Impact. We've known for days that opposition figures have been building up their challenge to the Government, but it's today, with the revelation of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on Monday, that you know the wave has hit.


For the first time in weeks, the non-Iranian mainstream media is taking notice of the opposition as more than a post-11 February blip. Reuters headlines, "Iran opposition urges vote anniversary rally"; CNN, who established an "Iran Desk" for the 22 Bahman (11 February) demonstration and soon let it lapse, follows suit: "Iranian opposition candidates call for renewed protests".

1125 GMT: No Further Comment Necessary. From Press TV: "Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi said that it is 'ridiculous' to place limitations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy by making 'unfounded' claims about human rights and freedom of women."

1050 GMT: All is Well  Update. Despite the accumulating news of a possible oil squeeze on Tehran with foreign producers withdrawing imports, the Government line is No Problem:

Iran says its strategic gasoline reserves have climbed by a billion liters, reiterating that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never materialize.

"Iran is not worried about (possible) gasoline sanctions," Deputy Oil Minister Noureddin Shahnazi-Zadeh told Iran's Mehr News Agency on Tuesday, adding that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never occur as there is no possibility of imposing such sanctions under current conditions.

1045 GMT: We have posted a short video from Monday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in which the two agreed to call a demonstration for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We have also posted a feature of how EA's list of detained Iranian journalists may have made its way into an Austrian newspaper's interview of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

0835 GMT: British Deportation. Last week, we reported on the British Government's plan to deport Bita Ghaedi, an Iranian woman who fled the country because of alleged abuse by her father and brother. Ghaedi was being returned to Tehran despite the likelihood that she would face punishment because of her participation in a rally protesting conflict over Iraq' s Camp Ashraf, home to many members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran.

Volcanic ash intervened to prevent Ghaedi's flight last week; however, her deportation has now been rescheduled for 5 May.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

0750 GMT: Labour Watch. A collection of Iranian unions have issued a joint 15-point statement for May Day, "strongly supporting the demands of teachers, nurses, and other working classes of society to end discrimination".

Member of Parliament Alireza Mahjoub has criticised the Government's failure to implement rises in pensions and the hidden discrimination against female workers.

0740 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has harshly criticised the "feminist and anti-family" views of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Motahari said that Hashemi's critique of polygamy was misguided, as the prohibition of polygamy would lead to prostitution.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amidst reports of the poor health of many detainees, reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian has insisted that a Majlis commission investigate the prisons.

0710 GMT: A Successful Protest. The sit-in of female detainees at Evin Prison has forced authorities to establish the separation of men and women in the facility.

0700 GMT: Corruption Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has repeated the claim that the Supreme Leader has insisted the corruption case against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi must be dropped because of "sensitive issues of nezam (the Iranian system)".

0640 GMT: We Persist. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a protest against the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission that the reformist party be suspended. The IIPF declares that it will continue its activities.

The protest is signed by Mohsen Safai-Farahani, who was recently handed a six-year prison sentence.

0630 GMT: More Challenges. From the conservative side, leading member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has said that the number and impudence of corrupt high-level officials have risen. He insisted that these officials must be confronted, no matter where and who they serve.

And reformist Ahmad Shirzad has asserted that the opposition movement has been bolstered by the addition of "dissatisfied hardliners".

0540 GMT: Monday was notable for the rush of opposition challenges to the Government. There was Mehdi Karroubi on a law-abiding, Constitution-promoting resistance that would bring victory to Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi's "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?",  and Zahra Rahnavard calling for the release of detained workers and teachers.

Of course, the important leap will be from statement to action. Yet it is striking this moment to compare the renewed calls for justice and freedom with the Government's rhetorical flourishes.

There was President Ahmadinejad again looking outside Iran with his promotion of the "satanic tools" of the United Nations and the US. There was Foreign Minister Mottaki, confronted with a list of more than 100 detained journalists and political analysts, replying brusquely, "Stick to the nuclear issue."

And there were apparent flights of desperation. As the chief executive of the French oil company Total was announcing that it would pull out of Iran if US sanctions proceeded, the deputy head of Iran's oil industry, Hojatollah Ghanimi-Fard, proclamed, "Iran has negotiated development projects with several foreign oil companies, including French concerns."

Ghanimi-Fard's optimism contrasted sharply with a statement from the Revolutionary Guard that it was prepared to replace Total and Royal Dutch Shell in oil and natural gas projects. Ali Vakili, the managing director of the Pars Oil and Gas Company, said a one-week ultimatum had been given to Shell and Spanish company Repsol, “We will not delay the development of South Pars phases waiting for foreign companies.”

Iran: The Purge of the Professors (Theodoulou)

Michael Theodoulou reports for The National:

Saba Vasefi was popular with most of her students, but not surprised when she was abruptly dismissed without explanation from her post at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran.

The professor and human rights activist had been warned on four occasions by university authorities that they were not happy with her using words such as “execution”, “woman” and “victim” in her classes and lectures.

The Latest from Iran (27 April): An Opposition Wave?

No matter that Ms Vasefi, who at 28 is barely older than some of her students and younger than others, was mostly discussing old Persian literary texts. What seems to have upset the authorities was that she drew parallels between human rights abuses centuries ago and those in present-day Iran.

“There are other professors I know who received the same warning,” Ms Vasefi said. She is owed three semesters’ pay.



At least three other professors have been dismissed from Iranian universities this month on what human rights activists say were also political grounds, either for expressing different viewpoints from the government or for supporting student protesters.

The purge appears set to intensify. Many analysts and rights activists fear that the regime is determined to accelerate a creeping “cultural revolution”.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president, first called for a purge of liberal professors and secular academic staff in 2006, a year after he came to power. Since then, at least 50 professors expressing independent views have been sacked for political reasons, according to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, an NGO based in New York and the Netherlands.

But last month there was an ominous new warning from Iran’s minister of science, research and technology. Kamran Dansehjoo proclaimed that faculty members who do not “share the regime’s direction”, and who do not have “practical commitment to velayat-e faqih” – rule of the supreme leader – would be dismissed.

Universities are viewed by the jittery regime as incubators of the political dissent that has gripped the country since Mr Ahmadinejad’s disputed re-election last June.

“It’s clear they feel the universities are the hub of the problem and they want to sort it out,” said Ali Ansari, a professor of Iranian history at St Andrews University in Scotland. “It seems that they are going after a fully-fledged cultural revolution.”

Aaron Rhodes, a spokesman for the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, describes the regime’s actions as “an attempted cultural coup”.

The state, he said, is “forcing ideology down the throats of the civil population, trying to control ideas and beliefs”. It has not succeeded “other than ruining careers and institutions”.

Sackings aside, many academics have paid a heavy price. Those who attended conferences abroad in recent years were often lambasted at home. Some were arrested on charges of trying to foment a “velvet” revolution.

In September, just weeks before Iranian universities re-opened after a summer of unprecedented unrest, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, expressed concern that nearly two million of Iran’s 3.8 million students in higher education were majoring in social sciences.

“If we teach a copy of what westerners have said and written to our young people, then we are conveying to them both doubt and disbelief in Islamic principles in our values,” he said.

The High Council for Cultural Revolution, in charge of drafting academic policies, promptly ordered a “revision” of social science subjects. Hardline senior aides of Ayatollah Khamenei at the same time pledged to purge universities of western influences and to “Islamise” humanities curricula.

Not all of the professors who were dismissed have been from social sciences or liberal arts backgrounds.

One sacked this month was a professor of telecommunications, the other of electrical engineering. Both had spoken out in support of dissenting students beaten in December by plain-clothes security forces who had entered their campus.

Iranian academics outside the Islamic republic say they have few details about the extent of the dismissal or “retirement” of university professors.

“Clearly, even the public discussion of ‘secular influences’ at universities is intended to intimidate professors who have been politically active in support of Ahmadinejad’s opponents, even if it does not lead to their outright dismissal”, Farideh Farhi, a renowned Iran scholar at the University of Hawaii, said.

The clampdown on huge street protests ignited by Mr Ahmadinejad’s re-election made global headlines last summer. Less noticed, but potentially more significant, is the repression at Iran’s universities.

“They’re trying to rip out from the roots the intellectual base of the country,” Prof Ansari said. “It will radicalise students further. You have a critical mass now in Iran that simply don’t believe what they’re being told any more.”

Iran’s huge student population is already boiling. Thousands were arrested during and after last summer’s street protests and some have been sentenced to jail terms of up to 15 years. Others were banished entirely from higher education and many were suspended and made to pledge that they would abandon political activity.

Iranian universities, cradles of political activism since the shah’s time, were shut down for nearly three years after the 1979 Islamic revolution during a “cultural revolution”. The aim was to Islamise campuses and curricula, “purifying” them of western influence.

Scores of lecturers were sacked and students ejected after being perceived to be leftist or liberal.

The experiment failed: the student population remained thirsty for modern ideas and intellectual dialogue with the West.

Analysts and academics are confident that today’s less dramatic but more insidious efforts by the regime to censure and “cleanse” certain university faculties and curb freedom of thought are similarly doomed.

Strait-jacketing the teaching of social and political sciences while intimidating liberal-minded professors and students will not extinguish the desire for social reform and change, they say.

“Iranian scholars, artists and other intellectuals have managed an independent and diverse course of development: they are not susceptible to crude manipulation,” said Mr Rhodes. “The attempted cultural coup has not thwarted intellectual freedom or a commitment of teaching and research.”

Moreover, purging curricula of western social theory and literature risks further radicalising many middle-class students who were politically awakened only by last year’s presidential election.

The government’s policies will also “debase Iran’s universities, long a source of national pride and admiration by scholars around the world”, said Mr Rhodes.

And it will inevitably “mean an exodus of qualified academics seeking employment abroad”, added Prof Ansari.

The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View

2030 GMT: Economy Watch. Mohammad Nabi-Habibi, the Secretary General of the conservative Islamic Coalition Party, has said that the government has not had any major achievement in the privatization process: “Over the recent years, some works have been done to privatize the state-run organizations and strengthen the private sector, but the steps have not yielded any notable result so far."

NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “We Will Make The Nation Victorious”
NEW Iran: The Mousavi 4-Point Message "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"
NEW Iran Exclusive: A Birthday Message to Detained Journalist Baghi from His Daughter
Iran Special: Tehran, Defender of Women’s Rights (P.S. Don’t Mention Boobquake
Iran: The Green Movement and the Labour Movement (Assadi)
Iran: Hyping the Threat from Tehran (Walt)
The Latest from Iran (25 April): Build-Up

2025 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Sama Nourani of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters has reportedly been released on bail.


2015 GMT: Our colleague Josh Shahryar has a new opinion piece at The Huffington Post, "Iranian Diaspora Needs to Act": "What the Green Movement urgently needs from the Iranian Diaspora, especially in the United States, is to come together and form a strong voice of political support for the cause of Iran's democratization - if not outright liberalization."

1525 GMT: Ahmadinejad "Look Over There!" Speaking to Iran's police officers, the President today denounced "satanic tools" of oppression.

This may have initially shocked his audience, but eventually it became clear that Ahmadinejad was not referring to them. Instead, his target was nuclear weapons, military invasions, and the veto power granted to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. The President continued, "America belittles nations, and questions human values, whereas valuing humanity requires culture. Belittling nations only reaps inflexibility, distance, and malice."

1515 GMT: The Der Spiegel Profile of Karroubi (With a Bonus Surprise). The German magazine's piece on Mehdi Karroubi is now out --- it's more a portrayal than an interview --- and features the cleric's defiance, "The people are just waiting for a spark....I am prepared to accept all consequences."

The surprise,however, is not in the Karroubi material: to be honest, we've heard it before from the resolute opposition figure. Instead, the twist comes in an insert on another Presidential candidate, the "conservative" Mohsen Rezaei:

Does he see himself as an alternative to Ahmadinejad? The corners of Rezaei's mouth turn up in a slight smile: "I will serve my people where I can."

The retired general prefers to avoid critical questions, and seems intent on stirring his tea, as if the sugar could somehow solve his loyalty problems. Like Karroubi, Rezaei refers to "Dr. Ahmadinejad" and avoids using the word president. And like Karroubi the reformer, Rezaei the conservative says: "It can't go on like this."

1450 GMT: Over to You, Dr Rahnavard. And now it's Zahra Rahnavard putting out a declaration. She calls on the Government to free all imprisoned workers and teachers and to hold free and democratic elections.

1445 GMT: We have now posted a full English-translated version of Mehdi Karroubi's statement to former reformist members of Parliament, "We Will Make The Nation Victorious”.

1345 GMT: Karroubi Fights Back. Mehdi Karroubi's website Saham News carries a summary of his latest discussion with former reformist members of Parliament. The cleric, who had to deal with false rumours of his ill health last week, denounced the "new wave of psychological warfare" of the regime. He has promised that, despite this campaign, the opposition's resistance will only increase.
1245 GMT: Photo of the Day. Reformist leader and former Minister of the Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh is surrounded by supporters and well-wishers before his return to prison. Tajzadeh, who was on temporary release, was formally given a six-year sentence last week.



1000 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. The chief executive of the French oil company Total, Christophe de Margerie, said today that it will cease gasoline sales to Iran if the United States passes legislation to penalise fuel suppliers exporting to Tehran.

0925 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz's latest list of detainees has 2560 names. The website estimates that the total arrested since the June election is probably 18,000.

One of those detainees, journalist Mohammad Reza Yazdan-Panah has been indicted for "acting against national security".

0920 GMT: Stop Blogging. Now. RAHANA reports that Google-owned Blogger has been filtered in Iran.

0915 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online posts some troubling figures for the Government, with a 4:1 imbalance between Iran's imports and its exports.

0855 GMT: Is the Government Rattled? There is a notable sharpness today in the attacks on opposition figures by pro-regime newspapers. Kayhan announces that even if former President Mohammad Khatami repents, people will not forgive him for his "sedition".

Resalat asserts that staff from the reformist sites Rah-e-Sabz and Balatarin, with former Minister Ataollah Mohajerani as intermediary, received money from British intelligence officials. The newspaper also "reports" that "the dumb Sheikh [Mehdi Karroubi] met with organisers of fitna [sedition], who proposed to restart this on the election anniversary" but that Mir Hossein Mousavi does not want a call for demonstrations.[

0845 GMT: Interpreting Human Rights. Leading reformist Nasrullah Torabi has drawn a lesson from Iran's withdrawal of its candidacy for the UN Human Rights Council, with its negative effects on Tehran's standing: the step confirms the news of Iran's human rights violations.

0843 GMT: Larijani Watch. Just because he is manoeuvring against the President does not mean Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has to go easy on the US --- indeed, because he is criticising Ahmadinejad, there is even more cause to take the tough line on Washington. In his latest speech, Larijani declared that "people will stand against the US with their lives". (sorry, misunderstanding, your IRGC has to do that ;-)

0838 GMT: Removing Mousavi. The new Constitution of the private group of Iranian universities, Islamic Azad University, has removed Mir Hossein Mousavi from the Board.

0835 GMT: Thanks for That, Ayatollah Khamenei. In his speech to Iran's police forces on Sunday, the Supreme Leader said that respect for people is necessary.

0830 GMT: Karroubi Watch. And while we're summarising Mir Hossein Mousavi's latest steps, Rah-e-Sabz offers Mehdi Karroubi's interview with Der Spiegel, in which he declared that he would be pursuing a demonstration "to protect our Constitution" on the anniversary of the election, 12 June, and called the Ahmadinejad Government a "disaster" for Iran. We're still waiting for the German version.

0825 GMT: Whipping the NGOs Into Shape. Mohammad Reza Alipour, the Deputy Tehran Police Commander, said on Saturday that the police intend to organize non-governmental organizations in a “centralized” way. Alipour explained, “The police’s concern is that there is insufficient supervision over citizen organization and in some of them there is administrative chaos….There is no oversight for issuing licenses for these organizations.”

0815 GMT: The Chinese Angle. Amidst the tangle of signals of Beijing on sanctions, oil imports from Iran, and trade, Mehr News Agency is upbeat:

Iranian and Chinese finance ministers met in the U.S. on Sunday and underlined plans to enhance economic ties and increase the mutual trade level to $20 billion. The Mehr News Agency reported that on the sidelines of the World Bank summit in Washington, Shamseddin Hosseni met Xie Xuren.

Hosseini pointed to Iran's immediate privatization policy and said that foreign companies, especially Chinese firms, can cooperate in the country's lucrative investment projects such as oil refineries and petrochemical plants.

Most of the cheerleading for the trade boost comes from the Iranian side, with the Chinese representative "expressing his satisfaction with the Iranian official's suggestions and noted that the two countries were in a reconstructing phase of their economies meant to benefit their nations".

So is Beijing really boosting its economic stake in Iran, just throwing up reassuring noises, or keeping all its economic and political options open?
0800 GMT: Interpreting Mousavi. With Mir Hossein Mousavi making a flurry of speeches this week, we've offered a quick analysis of his four key points, "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"

0500 GMT: No significant shifts on the news front this morning. The Ahmadinejad Government has been relatively quiet. Speaker of Parliament Larijani continues his sniping at the President and his inner circle, but without making a significant move. Opposition figures such as Mousavi and Karroubi, with their statements, are signalling a build-up in activity, but plans have yet to emerge. And on the international front, the discussions on the nuclear front --- notably yesterday's encounter between Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano --- still offer more the style of engagement rather than the substance of breakthrough.

A moment, therefore, to look at some points of view. There's an interchange on Press TV on the latest US Government steps on nuclear weapons which offers an opportunity to hear the thoughts of Tehran University students. There's a readers' discussion, sparked by a Tehran Bureau article on "Azeris and the Green Movement", on issues amongst Iran's ethnic groups and the dynamic with the national challenge to the Government. And there's our own readers' dialogue on the legitimacy of the 2009 election and the politics and "justice" beyond it.

And, for a personal point of view, there are the thoughts of Maryam, expressed in a letter to her father, journalist  Emad Baghi, as he celebrated his 48th birthday in Evin Prison on Sunday.