Iran: The Establishment Frets Over the Supreme Leader

Mr Verde is back, taking a long look at manoeuvres within the Iranian "establishment":

In recent weeks some members of the establishment (Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati and Ahmad Khatami, the Islamic Coaltion Party's Habibollah Asgaroladi, and recently Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi) have changed tack. The clerics and politicians had been accusing the post-election protestors and their leaders, specifically Iran's reformists, of trying to overthrow the Islamic Republic in collusion with the West.

However, in the last few weeks the talk from the establishment figures is about attacks on the Supreme Leader. There is hardly any mention of “barandazi” (overthrow of regime) these days. Instead, the words are of conspiracies to limit the power of or to remove the Leader. The declarations that Khamenei is the best possible Supreme Leader give the game away --- why make such declarations if no one doubts him?


Recently Mesbah Yazdi, a strong backer of President Ahamdinejad, was the alleged source of some strange comments about the principle of “velayat-e-faqih” (clerical authority). He was quoted as saying that the “velayat-e-faqih” does not need to be the most prominent “marja” (source of emulation). He supported this with the assertation that, at the time of the 1979 Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini was not the most prominent “marja”.

Although this might be seen as an indirect attack on Khomeini’s credibility --- it is well known that Khomeini and Mebah had serious disagreements --- the comment may be an attempt to argue in favor of Khamenei as “velayat-e-faqih”. Mesbah Yazdi has some religious credentials that Khamenei lacks, and his comments were reportedly to religious scholars at the Qom Seminary.

Mesbah Yazdi supposedly said that, although the Supreme Leader is chosen by God, if the people do not accept him, he should step aside. If true, this is a reversal of Mesbah Yazdi's previous statements that the “velayat-e-faqih” is chosen by God and the people’s opinion does not matter.

Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi are now referring to Khamenei’s statements with sarcasm and challenging him directly (although they are still not naming him). Earlier this year, Khamenei likened the regime to a rescue ship and said that some insiders are being left behind and the ship is sailing. Karroubi's response was to poke fun in his Nowruz message, likening the regime not to a ship but to a small dinghy full of unsavoury characters. Mousavi later added, "They say we have left the regime’s ship, well we have not left the ship of Islam", implying that the regime is no longer on the Islamic path.

So the question arises: are the recent changes in the speeches by the establishment figures an indication that Khamenei is facing problems from regime insiders and not just Mousavi, Karroubi, and other reformists over his credentials as Supreme Leader?

The Latest from Iran (24 April): Speaking of Rights

1850 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A relative of an Evin Prison detainee has confirmed that a group of political prisoners began their "election anniversary" hunger strike on Friday. The strikers intend to fast every Thursday and then increase the days as they approach the 12 June anniversary of the election.

1840 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Media Strategy --- Get Rid of It.Iranian journalist Mashallah Shamsolvaezin, noting the ban of 20 publications since 2005, contends that the President seeks to exclude critics and concentrate on pro-government voices.

1835 GMT: Corruption Watch. Amin Hossein Rahimi of the Majlis Judiciary and Legal Commission has said the necessary laws exist to confront corruption, but Iran's government and judiciary do not implement them.

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The Latest from Iran (23 April): Rounding Up the News

1830 GMT: Countdown to 12 June. We began this morning by noting the build-up in Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to a show of opposition on the anniversary of the Presidential election.

Count Mehdi Karroubi in. The cleric has told the German magazine Der Spiegel that he will be seeking a permit to march on 12 June.


1825 GMT: The Teachers Protest. The Coordinating Council of Iranian Teacher Trade Associations has issued a statement to announce that a group of its members will go on hunger strike on 2 May, National Teacher's day, to protest the “illegal execution [of] and imprisonment sentences” handed down to a number of teachers.

The Council's statement says that the executive members of the Teachers Association and associated labour activists will start the hunger strike and called on all Iranian teachers to join the effort throughout 2 May.

The Council called for the “immediate and unconditional release” of all teachers from prison, a withdrawal of all legal and official action against “critical educators”, and an end to the “security atmosphere” in the Ministry of Education. It also demanded job security, better provisions for public schools through oil and gas revenues and the avoidance of all partiality and political manoeuvring in development of school curricula.

1740 GMT: A Serious Look at "Boobquake". As the Facebook comic protest grows against the declaration by Iranian clerics that immorality causes earthquakes --- rallies are now planned in New York City and Washington --- Rah-e-Sabz makes some important points.

The website notes that the Friday Prayers by Hojatoleslam Seddiqi and Ayatollah Jannati are part of the regime's theme of fighting the "soft war" of opposition and that the statements point to more suppression of Iran's youth.

1730 GMT: Labour Watch. After Iranian authorities rejected the request by the "House of Workers" for demonstrations on 1 May, a group of Green supporters in the organisation has invited the people to celebrate the day in support of workers. The gathering is planned for 4 p.m. local time in front of the Vezarate Kar (Ministry of Work). If this is prohibited, there will be a march to the Ministry of Interior.

1450 GMT: Journalists as Political Prisoners. With deepest thanks to our German Bureau, we post their list of more than 100 journalists who have been detained during the post-election crisis.

1445 GMT: A Very Different Video. In contrast to the video below of the apparent boasting of a  Revolutionary Guard commander about torture and rape, a clip from the Nowruz meeting of Green Movement women with publisher Shahla Lahiji (the first speaker in the video), Zahra Rahnavard, lawyer Nasrin Sotudeh, and many other important activists.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQs5MwSxgQg[/youtube]

1430 GMT: In Praise of Abuse? This video of a speech by Revolutionary Guard Commander Sardar Saeed Ghasemi is racing around the Internet. Critics claim that Ghasemi is endorsing the abuse and rape of detainees (see translated passage below the video). Readers' feedback is welcomed:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13JaMr9_cUo&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

If they want to oppose the regime intellectually, there isn't a problem, we pray for them, but if they dare to come on the streets and challenge the establishment, be it if they are my own child or even if they are a martyr's son, the establishment is duty bound to deal with them, so be aware..and you lot [the audience] tell them not to be obstinate; otherwise they will be taken to a place with sauna and jacuzzi [laughter by the audience] or those things that Karroubi has claimed [laughter again --- Note: Mehdi Karroubi claimed in July 2009 that detainees had been abused and raped], which haven't happened of course, but you never know things can happen,

Of course one can't play with convictions, you see a lot of them are still putting up a resistance, but those who have broken down have really broken down, so tell them they will be taken to those kind of places and then they will confess to everything in less than twenty days [laughter].

1330 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Another purported letter from detainees to senior clerics --- in this case, Ayatollahs Mousavi Ardebili, Makarem Shirazi, Safi Golpayegani, Vahid Khorasani, Sane'i, Bayat Zanjani, and Dastgheib --- is published today in Kalemeh:

We know and also heard that you are also against these behaviours and actions, but we expect from you to act and defend the oppressed and to show your beliefs to the people. Don’t let some individuals who call themselves the unknown soldiers of the hidden Imam (the agents and interrogators of Intelligence Ministry) and who have caused us all these sufferings damage you, your religious teachings and our hope. Is there anyone who would answer to the cry for help of us, the oppressed?

1325 GMT: Today's Revolutionary Guard Chest-Puffery. Another day, another declaration by the IRGC of how tough it is and will be against the threat of the "West". Brigadier General Amir Ali Jazideh, "The super advanced bomber drone, manufactured by the Revolutionary Guards, will be operational in the second half of this [Iranian] year," which ends 20 March 2001.

1315 GMT: IRGC "We'll Take Care of the Oil". Revolutionary Guards Brigadier General Yadollah Javani has told the Iranian Labor News Agency, ''Today the Revolutionary Guards are proud to have the ability and know-how to easily replace large international firms; for example, we can replace Total and Shell in Assalouyeh big projects''

Shell has recently pulled out of development of a natural gas field in Iran, but Javani, the head of the IRGC's Political Bureau, said western sanctions were ''baseless''.

1300 GMT: Prominent reformist and former Deputy Minister of Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh has been ordered to return to prison to serve his six-year sentence, after his request for an extension of temporary release was denied.

The order came soon after Tajzadeh was contacted by Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili, who wished him good health after the recent surgery on his back. Mehdi Karroubi visited the recuperating Tajzadeh yesterday.

Tajzadeh agreed to report to the prison Sunday morning after consultations with his doctors.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Foad Shams, arrested by Intelligence Ministry agents in front of Tehran University on 2 December and subsequently detained for 97 days in Evin Prison's Ward 209, has been sentenced to 6 months imprisonment and 6 months suspended detention on the charge of propaganda against the Islamic Republic.

As journalist Emaduddin Baghi enters his fifth month in detention, RAHANA reports that a new charge has been filed against him, relating to his book --- written 21 years ago --- Of Realities and Judgements.

0640 GMT: A fairly busy Friday gives way to a quieter start to Saturday. In the lull, two stories continue to ripple.

Mir Hossein Mousavi has now established a pattern of speaking to reformist parties and activists, and his latest statement, presented to the National Religious Front, re-asserts his general vision of the Green Movement: “What happened in the 25th of Khordaad [15 June] last year in Tehran with that heavy and kind presence of people together accompanied by an environment of peace, endurance, perseverance and kinship along with their reaction as civil dissidents is a perfect example of a desired civil society.”

We have a full summary, courtesy of Khordaad 88, in a separate entry, but mark this down: it is now seven weeks until the 1st anniversary of the Presidential election, and both the rhetoric and substance of Mousavi's words are pointing towards a renewed show of the opposition challenge on and around that date. Whether 12 June will see mass action and whether Mousavi will back his statements with participation, well, that's a matter for specualtion rather than certainty right now....

On the international front, the ripples are over Tehran's reported withdrawal of its candidacy for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. It's important here, I think, to separate the global political spin from the significance within Iran.

The non-Iranian media will make great play today of a "Western victory" over Iran, as the core issue of rights is entangled with the manoeuvring over Iran's nuclear programme and the discussion of sanctions. I am far more interested in how this news is received, or even if it is known, inside Iran. Will the regime acknowledge a setback for its self-presentation as a defender of rights and will the opposition use the development as a marker of the shallowness, and even hypocrisy, of that claim?

The Latest from Iran (23 April): Rounding Up the News

2000 GMT: Consolation and Persistence. Mehdi Karroubi has visited Mostafa Tajzadeh, the former Deputy Minister of Interior, at his home. Tajzadeh, formally sentenced to six years in prison last week, had been in intensive care because of serious health issues.

1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom carries a summary from human rights activists of prison sentences, including death penalties, for 27 detainees.

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On the other side of the watch, journalist and human rights activist Davoud Khokarami was released on Monday after two days of detention.


Statement of the Day

Mir Hossein Mousavi has offered another statement in a meeting with the National-Religious Front.

Mousavi said that the only way for realising national interests an ideal society was through a Green Movement that "pursues goals which are a reflection of the values, will and demands of the Iranian people”. He asserted, “We should pursue the creation of an interlinked civil society through the use of all the available resources in the country.”

Recalling the rise of the protest movement within hours of the Presidential election, Mousavi said, “The events that took place last year in Tehran on 15 June and the compassionate and sympathetic presence of the people along with tolerance, patience and cooperation and the protesters’ civil action set an example and standard for an ideal society”.

Framing the political challenge as a long-term process, Mousavi said, "The task ahead is immense and the path of the Green Movement is a lengthy one with many twists and turns; even if the Movement succeeds in its goals sooner than what many people expect, we must have patience and perseverance and to live with the Movement in order for it to persist.”

He concluded, “It should become apparent for everyone that we are seeking our national interests; this is not a question of selfishness. We do not want to stand beside tyranny and the tyrant. We stand by the oppressed.”

Earthquake Watch

The regime's statement of the day comes from Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, head of the Guardian Council at Tehran Friday Prayers. He has repeated the certainty, offered at last week's service by Hojatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi, that immorality such as provocative dress and adultery causes natural disasters: "We can avoid earthquakes if the faithful and devoted people pray to God."

Not sure everyone is taking this as seriously as they should, however. A "Boobquake" group has been established on Facebook to "prove boobs don't cause earthquakes"

Denial of Day

Members of Mehdi Karroubi's camp have dismissed rumours that the cleric is in ill health.

Warning the Reformists

Mohammad Abbaszadeh Meshkini, the Secretary General of Parliament's Article 10 Commission, has said that if the Mojahedin of Islamic. Revolution party and the Islamic Iran Participation Front continue their activities, "they will get trouble".

Iranian authorities have denied, however, that there are restrictions on the overseas travel of former President Mohammad Khatami. Last week Khatami cancelled an appearance at a disarmament conference in Japan, claiming he was pressured not to fly.

The Nuclear Front

Diplomats say Iran has agreed to more extensive monitoring of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

A Ringing Endorsement. As President Ahmadinejad visits his country, Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has backed Iran's "just cause" in pursuit of nuclear power.

Economy Watch

Alireza Marandi, the former Minister of Health, has asserted that only 15% of the Ahmadinejad Fourth Plan's health projects have been realised.

Political Prisoner Watch

A death sentence has been handed down to Habibollah Golparipour, an Iranian Kurd, because of "mohareb" (war against God).

Rah-e-Sabz notes that in the month of Farvardin, which has just ended, a total of almost 73 years in prison sentences were handed down for supporters of the Green Movement.

Culture Ups and Downs

Maziar Bahari, the Iranian-Canadian journalist detained for months during the post-election crisis, has been honoured by a German organisation. He will collect the award on 7 May.

Forough Farrokhzad, one of Iran's most distinguished writers, has been banned from the country''s Book of Poets.