Iran: The Establishment Frets Over the Supreme Leader

Mr Verde is back, taking a long look at manoeuvres within the Iranian "establishment":

In recent weeks some members of the establishment (Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati and Ahmad Khatami, the Islamic Coaltion Party's Habibollah Asgaroladi, and recently Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi) have changed tack. The clerics and politicians had been accusing the post-election protestors and their leaders, specifically Iran's reformists, of trying to overthrow the Islamic Republic in collusion with the West.

However, in the last few weeks the talk from the establishment figures is about attacks on the Supreme Leader. There is hardly any mention of “barandazi” (overthrow of regime) these days. Instead, the words are of conspiracies to limit the power of or to remove the Leader. The declarations that Khamenei is the best possible Supreme Leader give the game away --- why make such declarations if no one doubts him?


Recently Mesbah Yazdi, a strong backer of President Ahamdinejad, was the alleged source of some strange comments about the principle of “velayat-e-faqih” (clerical authority). He was quoted as saying that the “velayat-e-faqih” does not need to be the most prominent “marja” (source of emulation). He supported this with the assertation that, at the time of the 1979 Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini was not the most prominent “marja”.

Although this might be seen as an indirect attack on Khomeini’s credibility --- it is well known that Khomeini and Mebah had serious disagreements --- the comment may be an attempt to argue in favor of Khamenei as “velayat-e-faqih”. Mesbah Yazdi has some religious credentials that Khamenei lacks, and his comments were reportedly to religious scholars at the Qom Seminary.

Mesbah Yazdi supposedly said that, although the Supreme Leader is chosen by God, if the people do not accept him, he should step aside. If true, this is a reversal of Mesbah Yazdi's previous statements that the “velayat-e-faqih” is chosen by God and the people’s opinion does not matter.

Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi are now referring to Khamenei’s statements with sarcasm and challenging him directly (although they are still not naming him). Earlier this year, Khamenei likened the regime to a rescue ship and said that some insiders are being left behind and the ship is sailing. Karroubi's response was to poke fun in his Nowruz message, likening the regime not to a ship but to a small dinghy full of unsavoury characters. Mousavi later added, "They say we have left the regime’s ship, well we have not left the ship of Islam", implying that the regime is no longer on the Islamic path.

So the question arises: are the recent changes in the speeches by the establishment figures an indication that Khamenei is facing problems from regime insiders and not just Mousavi, Karroubi, and other reformists over his credentials as Supreme Leader?

Comments

[M.Ali]

So your analysis is based on two quotes by the opposition and one quote by Yazdi. the former two isnt new, but Yazdi's comment needs more study.

Yazdi's comment is interesting. And I would love to see more quotes from him in that session, to put in context. From that line, my first thought is that Yazi is trying to set himself as a replacement, since he isn't a marja either...

[Barry]

@M.Ali

That is certainly a possibility - now that would be a case of "two identical peas in a peapod", Ahmadinejad and Yazdi in charge if Iran. I can't say "God help you" - because there are no Gods, only people and their vivid imaginations. So I don't really know what would save you.

Barry

[Bill]

Prof Crocodiles statement is actually in line with the hardliners trying to grab more and more power. Lets not forget he is backed by the IRGC not the clergy or any Grand Ayatollah. If he were he wouldn't be making statements like that. This wako knows full well if left up to the clergy he would be roting in a jail cell somewhere for violating so many tenents of Sharia and the Iranian constitution with his support for the oppression.

[Shmangy]

Ayatollah Yazdi: Senior Leaders sovereignty depends on killing 1000s & robbing our nations assets; he has lost legitimacy in the eyes of the people!

[Shmangy]

Ayatollah Mohamad Taghi Mesbahe Yazdi "The Supreme leader can only rule with the consent of the people" http://bit.ly/cCCnVj

[Adam]

Shmangy,

Are you sure Yazdi, AN's fav cleric Yazdi, said these things about the SL? If so that is very strange and indicates a battle between Khamenei and Yazdi which would not turn out well for Yazdi and AN. I hope Yazdi pursues this tac

[kamran]

This is from "Raja News" of today:

http://rajanews.com/detail.asp?id=49099

I do not see him say anything against Khamenie! what is going on?

[Arshama]

Adam and Kamran,

Yazdi's statement was also published by Khabar Online: http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-57939.aspx
By doing so he obviously tries to produce himself as the SL's successor, as stated by M. Ali already.

A possible objection to this claim could be Muhammad Sahimi's article about Raffers, saying that he "is perhaps the only person who might be able to avert a final bloody showdown between the democratic movement and the hardliners, and help Iran to move toward a more open, more tolerant, more democratic society. But will he be able to do it, and is he even willing to try?"
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/04/the-middle-road-of-hashemi-rafsanjani.html

The Shark meets the Crocodile -- a fascinating story ;-)

Arshama

[kamran]

Arshama,

Thank you very much for the link. I think we should really watch Mesbah from now on.

[Kasra]

I can't believe my eyes! Temsah against SL!!! There must be something seriously wrong within the inner circle of the establishment.