The Latest from Iran (27 April): An Opposition Wave?

1840 GMT: The Uranium Squeeze. Time magazine notices a key point that we've mentioned for some time, "Iran's need to find fresh supplies of raw uranium supplies is increasingly urgent, according to some reports."

1830 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). Following the announcement by major French firm Total that it will pull out of Iran  if US sanctions proceed and the defiant stance of Iranian officials that absolutely nothing was wrong with energy supplies --- see 0540 and 1050 GMT), Italian company Eni says it is "working on handing over the operatorship of the Iranian Darquain oil field to local partners".

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The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View

1700 GMT: Impact. We've known for days that opposition figures have been building up their challenge to the Government, but it's today, with the revelation of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on Monday, that you know the wave has hit.


For the first time in weeks, the non-Iranian mainstream media is taking notice of the opposition as more than a post-11 February blip. Reuters headlines, "Iran opposition urges vote anniversary rally"; CNN, who established an "Iran Desk" for the 22 Bahman (11 February) demonstration and soon let it lapse, follows suit: "Iranian opposition candidates call for renewed protests".

1125 GMT: No Further Comment Necessary. From Press TV: "Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi said that it is 'ridiculous' to place limitations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy by making 'unfounded' claims about human rights and freedom of women."

1050 GMT: All is Well  Update. Despite the accumulating news of a possible oil squeeze on Tehran with foreign producers withdrawing imports, the Government line is No Problem:

Iran says its strategic gasoline reserves have climbed by a billion liters, reiterating that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never materialize.

"Iran is not worried about (possible) gasoline sanctions," Deputy Oil Minister Noureddin Shahnazi-Zadeh told Iran's Mehr News Agency on Tuesday, adding that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never occur as there is no possibility of imposing such sanctions under current conditions.

1045 GMT: We have posted a short video from Monday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in which the two agreed to call a demonstration for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We have also posted a feature of how EA's list of detained Iranian journalists may have made its way into an Austrian newspaper's interview of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

0835 GMT: British Deportation. Last week, we reported on the British Government's plan to deport Bita Ghaedi, an Iranian woman who fled the country because of alleged abuse by her father and brother. Ghaedi was being returned to Tehran despite the likelihood that she would face punishment because of her participation in a rally protesting conflict over Iraq' s Camp Ashraf, home to many members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran.

Volcanic ash intervened to prevent Ghaedi's flight last week; however, her deportation has now been rescheduled for 5 May.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

0750 GMT: Labour Watch. A collection of Iranian unions have issued a joint 15-point statement for May Day, "strongly supporting the demands of teachers, nurses, and other working classes of society to end discrimination".

Member of Parliament Alireza Mahjoub has criticised the Government's failure to implement rises in pensions and the hidden discrimination against female workers.

0740 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has harshly criticised the "feminist and anti-family" views of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Motahari said that Hashemi's critique of polygamy was misguided, as the prohibition of polygamy would lead to prostitution.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amidst reports of the poor health of many detainees, reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian has insisted that a Majlis commission investigate the prisons.

0710 GMT: A Successful Protest. The sit-in of female detainees at Evin Prison has forced authorities to establish the separation of men and women in the facility.

0700 GMT: Corruption Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has repeated the claim that the Supreme Leader has insisted the corruption case against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi must be dropped because of "sensitive issues of nezam (the Iranian system)".

0640 GMT: We Persist. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a protest against the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission that the reformist party be suspended. The IIPF declares that it will continue its activities.

The protest is signed by Mohsen Safai-Farahani, who was recently handed a six-year prison sentence.

0630 GMT: More Challenges. From the conservative side, leading member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has said that the number and impudence of corrupt high-level officials have risen. He insisted that these officials must be confronted, no matter where and who they serve.

And reformist Ahmad Shirzad has asserted that the opposition movement has been bolstered by the addition of "dissatisfied hardliners".

0540 GMT: Monday was notable for the rush of opposition challenges to the Government. There was Mehdi Karroubi on a law-abiding, Constitution-promoting resistance that would bring victory to Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi's "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?",  and Zahra Rahnavard calling for the release of detained workers and teachers.

Of course, the important leap will be from statement to action. Yet it is striking this moment to compare the renewed calls for justice and freedom with the Government's rhetorical flourishes.

There was President Ahmadinejad again looking outside Iran with his promotion of the "satanic tools" of the United Nations and the US. There was Foreign Minister Mottaki, confronted with a list of more than 100 detained journalists and political analysts, replying brusquely, "Stick to the nuclear issue."

And there were apparent flights of desperation. As the chief executive of the French oil company Total was announcing that it would pull out of Iran if US sanctions proceeded, the deputy head of Iran's oil industry, Hojatollah Ghanimi-Fard, proclamed, "Iran has negotiated development projects with several foreign oil companies, including French concerns."

Ghanimi-Fard's optimism contrasted sharply with a statement from the Revolutionary Guard that it was prepared to replace Total and Royal Dutch Shell in oil and natural gas projects. Ali Vakili, the managing director of the Pars Oil and Gas Company, said a one-week ultimatum had been given to Shell and Spanish company Repsol, “We will not delay the development of South Pars phases waiting for foreign companies.”

The Latest from Iran (7 April): Ahmadinejad's Support?

2120 GMT: How Big is Ahmadinejad's Support? We may have had a quiet day, but there is debate over whether the President has had even quieter ones recently. Here are purported photographs from his speech at Orumiyeh in northwestern Iran:

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In contrast, this is a photograph posted by Fars News of Ahmadinejad in the area today:



1800 GMT: A Very Quiet Day. We've been around, but there hasn't been much to report. One note, however, as we keep an eyes on events in Kyrgyzstan with a view to featuring tomorrow morning. Here's the reaction of the Iran Foreign Ministry, as reported by Press TV:

Iran says it supports the restoration of peace in Kyrgyzstan after anti-government protests left 40 people killed in the country.

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Wednesday that Iran "wants the immediate restoration of domestic stability" in Kyrgyzstan and the prevention of the spread of insecurity to this sensitive region of Central Asia.

At least 40 people have been killed and 400 others injured in anti-government unrest in Kyrgyzstan.

1210 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Morteza Alviri, the former Mayor of Tehran, has been given a five-year prison sentence, four of which have been suspended, because of participation in the march of 15 June.

Rah-e-Sabz expresses concern over the status of human rights activist Somayeh Ojaghloo, whom it claims has been in an unknown location for more than a month.

1145 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Oh-So-Calm Response "I'll Break Your Teeth". The Iranian President has responded in a most measured way to Washington's Nuclear Defense Posture Review, issued yesterday:

American materialist politicians, whenever they are beaten by logic, immediately put their finger on the trigger like cowboys. Mr. Obama, you are a newcomer (to politics). Wait until your sweat dries and get some experience. Be careful not to read just any paper put in front of you or repeat any statement recommended. (American officials) bigger than you, more bullying than you, couldn't do a damn thing, let alone you....

I hope these published comments are not true....He (Obama) has threatened with nuclear and chemical weapons those nations which do not submit to the greed of the United States.

Be careful. If you set step in Mr (George W) Bush's path, the nations' response would be the same tooth-breaking one as they gave Bush.

1130 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. According to industry sources, Russian supplier LUKOil is stopping shipments to Iran.

LUKOil, Russia's second-largest oil company, has been sending 250,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels of gasoline every other month. The last shipment was made between 10 and 12 March.

LUKOil's decision follows withdrawals by Royal Dutch Shell, Glencore, & Vitol.

0930 GMT: Detaining the Press. The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that at least 35 journalists were imprisoned in Iran as of 1 April. Another 18 journalists were free on temporary New Year releases and were expected to report back to prison.

CPJ adds, "Many of the incarcerated journalists are under immense physical and psychological pressure to 'confess' to crimes they have not committed, including crimes that could carry the death sentence....Many have also been denied family visits and access to legal counsel. Others have been held without charge for periods far exceeding legal limits."

0900 GMT: In the Universities. Peyke Iran claims 160 students from Sabzevar Teacher's University have been expelled without a formal hearing because of protests.

0845 GMT: Economy Watch. Revolutionary Road reports, from Human Rights Activists News Agency and Iranian Labor News Agency, that "due to lack of raw materials, Metal Factory I of Tehran[one of the largest metal factories in Iran will be shut down and the doors will be closed to all their workers".

0645 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Revolutionary Court in Mahallat in central Iran has handed down four prison sentences, three of them suspended, one of 18 months, for Green Movement supporters for "acting against national security". Another supporter remains in detention.

0635 GMT: The B-Word. Ahmad Shirzad of the Islamic Iran Participation Front has said that, as there is no legal or political space for effective involvement, the party should boycott the next elections.

0630 GMT: Must Try Harder. Reflecting on the Supreme Leader's Nowruz call on Iranians to double their efforts to build the country, Hamid Reza Taraghi, a key member of the "conservative" Motalefeh party,  has said capabilities are not being used due to mismanagement.

0600 GMT: One to Watch --- The Corruption Charges. We noted this story yesterday, but given its potential significance, it bears repeating. Member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has alleged that First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi is the head of a large "corruption network".

Talk of corruption and the Ahmadinejad Government is far from new, so what's distinctive here? Well, Naderan is not a reformist or member of the Green opposition: he is a leading conservative voice on Parliament's Economic Committee. And just to note: the report is in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

Rah-e-Sabz offers a summary of the alleged "Fatemi Street" network, insurance fraud, and Rahimi's claimed involvement.

0530 GMT: A quieter day on the reformist/opposition front on Tuesday. There were moments such as Mir Hossein Mousavi's meeting with Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, the senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front who is on temporary release from detention.



So this is more of a case of waiting and watching. The significance does not have to be in an immediate action or statement of next steps; rather it is that Monday's meetings took place --- for the first time in this crisis to our knowledge, Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, Rafsanjani, and reformist MPs all connecting in a series of discussions.