The Latest from Iran (29 April): Preparations

2020 GMT: A Cleric's May Day Message. Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, meeting workers in advance of May Day, has said: “Today the problems are many and to solve them either no actions are taken or [the government] is incapable of taking any actions. The main issue is that solving these problems has been assigned to those who are not experts in these topics.”

Mousavi-Ardebili also touched on the charges of impropriety against the Government: “Our expectations from Parliament is to show more resistance against the unlawful actions [of the administration] because if, in the Parliament that is the house of the people and is where the laws are passed, these issues are ignored the situation would be worse in other places.”

NEW Iran Video and Summary: The Mousavi Statement for May Day/Teachers Day (29 April)
NEW Iran: The Establishment Frets Over the Supreme Leader
Iran Document: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (26 April)Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Joke of the Day
The Latest from Iran (28 April): Making a Date

Mousavi-Ardebili added, “These days to solve the problems there is nothing left for us to do but praying, since when we give our inputs about an issue it is being ignored.”


1940 GMT: Political Prisoner News. Days before National Teachers Day and planned demonstrations, it is being reported that Alireza Hashemi, the Secretary General of the Teachers Organization, has been arrested.

1500 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. It's no longer fresh news that Italy's largest oil and gas company, Eni, is pulling out of Iran projects because of the prospect of tougher US sanctions on any firm dealing with Tehran (see Tuesday's updates). It is significant that the news is now being carried by Press TV.

1455 GMT: We've posted today's Mir Hossein Mousavi video, accompanied by a summary from Radio Zamaneh, as a separate entry.

1330 GMT: Writing About the Crisis. Our German Bureau reports that prominent Iranian poets and writers, including Simin Behbahani, Yadollah Royai, Esmail Khoi and Majid Naficy, have contributed to a new anthology,  "Protest of the Pen", published in Persian.

0945 GMT: Investigation or Cover-Up? Shadi Sadr offers her views on the enquiry into the Kahrizak Prison abuses, leading to the death penalty for two police officers and a prisoner:

Gentlemen! Enough magic! We know and you know that the story cannot vanish with the execution of three individuals; indeed, no injury can be cured by more death and execution. The only thing that can satisfy us is knowing the truth about all victims of Kahrizak; the truth about the death of Ramin Pourandarjani, the assigned physician at the facility; and the description of what transpired from the perpetrators of the crimes, on national television.

0940 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has released a video statement for May Day and Iran's Teachers Day (2 May).

0935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has a summary of recent arrests of students and the poor health of some detainees.

0925 GMT: Economy Watch. Voice of America claims that, of an estimated 8200 Iranian companies in Dubai, 400 have closed because of sanctions.

0920 GMT: Clerical Matters. Rah-e-Sabz offers an analysis of the President's relationship with senior clerics in Qom, claiming that there were tensions in Ahmadinejad's first term and that only a few marja are offering greetings for his second term.

0915 GMT: Labour/Political Prisoner Watch. Homayoun Jaberi, a member of the Syndicate of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company, has been sentenced by the Revolutionary Court to a year in prison, suspended for three years (effectively a probation).

0835 GMT: Mr Verde is back, offering an analysis of the worries of the Iranian "establishment" over the position of the Supreme Leader.

0820 GMT: Corruption Watch (cont.). Elyas Naderan, the conservative member of Parliament who has been leading the campaign against the Government, has criticised the President for not waging a fight against corruption and for appointing questionable officials (for example, at Iran's Oil Commission), and (at NIOC etc.) because of political motivations.

0745 GMT: Corruption Watch. The drumbeat of criticism from conservative members of Parliament continues. Yesterday we noted Ali Motahari challenging underhanded dealings and nepotism in the judiciary; today we find Ahmad Tavakoli launching an even wider attack:

We have reached a state where political corruption is rampant, with some even trying to influence decision makers through bribes. This kind of corruption is much worse than economic corruption, because in economic corruption individuals pursue base and materialistic interest, but in political corruption it is possible that legal decisions would be made to facilitate certain people’s corrupt pursuits and lead to the interference of some in distributing the enormous oil proceeds.”

Political corruption is the involvement of politicians in economic corruption, whereby they buy and sell laws and regulations. This is a much more important disease that some are afflicted with now by trying to infiltrate the Majlis using bribes, threats or promises. Unfortunately we don’t have comprehensive laws dealing with political corruption.

If this problem is not dealt with today, tomorrow would be very late.

Tavakoli then gets specific, targeting the First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, accused of involvement in a major insurance fraud:"The judiciary is now facing a difficult test, because it has moved forward to investigate two important cases. One deals with an administration official and the other with a relative of a senior regime official. If the judiciary falls short of dealing with either case, in my opinion it would flunk the public opinion test and won’t have any standing left for combating corruption.”

0715 GMT: May Day. Rah-e-Sabz has now published the 15-demand declaration of the coalition of Iranian labour groups.

0645 GMT: So, after a flurry of statements from opposition figures (Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi) and groups (reformist parties, teachers, workers), we see if declaration will lead to action.

My interest is not in President Ahmadinejad's next move. Once more he is trying the foreign distraction, applying for and receiving a visa to attend the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty next Monday. That is matched by a roll-call of statements from Government officials and supportive members of Parliament that it is the US who is the nuclear culprit --- see, for example, the assertion of Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Alathat Washington should apologize for its failure to abide by its obligations under international law and the NPT.

No, time will be better spent looking for ripples, as in public gatherings of workers, teachers, and other activist groups for the week around May Day. And then the question is whether there will indeed be another wave for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

An opening teaser question: will Mousavi, who has repeatedly been kept away by Iranian authorities from mass demonstrations since last June, finally move from statement to open defiance by joining the marchers six weeks from now?

The Latest from Iran (28 April): Making a Date

2130 GMT: Controlling the Teachers. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty summarises the pressure by Iranian authorities on teachers ahead of Teachers Day on 2 May.

This includes the arrest of two senior members of Iran's teachers union, Ali Akbar Baghani, and spokesman Mohammad Beheshti Langarudi, warnings to activists in several cities, including Tehran and Tabriz, not to take part in any protests, and fines and arrests for demonstrating. It is reported that several blogs and websites on teachers' issues have been blocked.

NEW Iran Document: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (26 April)
NEW Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Joke of the Day
Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)

Earlier this week, the Coordinating Council of the Teachers Trade Unions called for a hunger strike on Teachers' Week (May 2-8) to protest prison sentences and death penalties handed out to teachers. Four teachers are reported to have been jailed in recent months and at least one, Kurdish teacher Farzad Kamangar, is facing the death penalty.


2045 GMT: Corruption Watch. Conservative member of Parliament Ali Motahari has criticized Iran's judiciary for lack of independence and nepotism.

Motahari told the Iranian Students News Agency that, in corruption cases involving relatives of top officials, prosecutors are seeking permission from the officials themselves before even investigating.

1600 GMT: Oil Squeeze Posturing. In an interview with Khabar Online, Ali Vakili, the managing director of Iran's Pars Oil and Gas Company, has warned Royal Dutch Shell and Spain's Repsol that they must declare if they plan to pursue a project, agreed in 2007, to develop liquefied natural gas in the South Pars field.

Shell recently announced that it is suspending all involvement in the project.

Vakili insisted that Iran can develop the South Pars, having overcome financial obstacles, and that it has the necessary technology.

1530 GMT: We've posted a special separate entry: the English translation of Monday's discussion between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1245 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The lawyer for reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh has said that Tajzadeh has not yet reported to prison to begin his six-year sentence: “My client was admitted into a hospital in Tehran because of his disc problem (in his back)....During the past 2 days, my client was expected to introduce himself to the prison to continue serving his prison term; however, this has not happened....As soon as his physical condition improves, he will present himself to the authorities.”

0845 GMT: Corruption Watch. Mardomsalari newspaper frets that corruption has become a political issue and warns that "justice" should end it once and for all before foreign ennemies can take advantage of the situation.

0830 GMT: The Subsidy Battle. While there has been a general between Parliament and President over the subsidy cut and spending plans, the fight over implementation continues.

Maintaining that Iran's political, social and economic situation cannot cope with a shock, MP Ahmad Tavakoli has written Ahmadinejad with three propositions: 1) no across-the-board rise in prices, 2) provision of reliable data on familiy's income, and 3) gradual implementation of the plan. ()

0810 GMT: Culture Wars. Rah-e-Sabz claims there will be increased pressure from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance upon people, especially women, to "satisfy the Supreme Leader" on the eve of the election's anniversary on 12 June. The website alleges there are "serious plans" for reeducation from kindergarten to university.

As if to prove the point, Kayhan proclaims that "bad hijab" has to be fought everywhere, from schools to offices.

0755 GMT: Does the Regime Need Legitimacy? An interesting debate, as reported by Rah-e-Sabz: the Supreme Leader's deputy to the Revolutionary Guard denies it is necessary to rely on people's votes, while Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi insists that the Government does precisely that.

0750 GMT: (More) Persistence. Reformist MP Rasul Montajabnia declares that hardliners cannot become an alternative to reformers and replace them: "We are alive."

0745 GMT: Continuing the Labour Theme. Rah-e-Sabz, anticipating May Day, reports that workers' incomes have suffered in the Iranian New Year. There are widespread dismissals and threats to dismiss those who "do not work enough". Meanwhile, protests have increased over the lack of accepted unions and organisations.

Reformist member of Parliament Hajsheikh Alikhani has insisted the government "doesn't give a damn about workers' problems".

0740 GMT: Awards. Hassan Karimzadeh from the banned newspaper Etemade Melli has won 1st prize in the World Press Cartoon competition.

Mahdi Razavi has been given an award by an Italian panel for his No War photograph.

0735 GMT: Labour Watch. Iran Labor Report offers a full summary of preparation for a "Labor Week" around May Day: "The experience of last May Day’s brutal clampdown...has prompted most independent labor organizations to call off May Day gatherings. Instead, they are encouraging workers to celebrate the occasion in small numbers at factories and shop-floors.

0730 GMT: Mahmoud Visits New York? A blog on the Foreign Policy website claims, from "senior UN officials and diplomats", that President Ahmadinejad has requested a visa to attend a high-level conference next week at United Nations headquarters to review progress on the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

0725 GMT: Not Worried (Really). The "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan has asserted that any Iranian using Haystack, the software developed by Austin Heap to allow access to the Internet while avoiding surveillance, will be tracked down by Iranian authorities. Kayhan claimed that the Green Movement is advising followers not to use the software.

0720 GMT: Persisting. The two major Iranian reformist organizations, Islamic Iran Participation Front and Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, announced that they will continue their activities despite the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission for the dissolution of the parties. Both factions called for a public hearing in order to defend all their activities.

Leaders of the two organizations have written to the Commission maintaining that the dissolution lacks “legal justification.”

0420 GMT: Time will tell, but Tuesday appeared to be a day to mark in this lengthening crisis. The building series of statements from opposition figures, notably Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, culminating in the emergence that, yes, the two men had met on Monday and, yes, they had called for a demonstration on 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We'll wait a day or two for follow-up before attempting an analysis, but the obvious issue is whether --- after 2 1/2 months of relative passivity since the 22 Bahman (11 February) moment --- those challenging the regime can seize the initiative.

That follow-up has already begun. Mehdi Karroubi, in comments posted on Mihan News, has set out and defended his political approach, working with a cross-section of opposition groups: "I have talked to a lot of leftists. They did not become Muslim, and I didn't become a Communist." The message is not only for the regime, but for the Green Movement: secular and religious can co-exist in the demand for justice and rights in the Islamic Republic.

The Karroubi-Mousavi accompanies other signs of a renewed challenge to the Government. A Street Journalist has published an English translation of the joint resolution, with 15 demands, issued by a coalition of Iranian labour groups.

Elsewhere, reformist MP Jamshid Ansari has declared that, contrary to its claims, Parliament has not initiated an investigation into the attack on the dormitories of Tehran University on the night of 14/15 June.

In a debate with fellow MP Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghaddam at Tehran University, Ansari said, “You should not expect any report from the Parliament regarding this matter because no committee has been assigned to this task, neither by the Speaker nor by the Parliament.”

The raids by security forces killed several people and caused extensive damage, two days after the elections and hours before the mass march on 15 June.

The Latest from Iran (27 April): An Opposition Wave?

1840 GMT: The Uranium Squeeze. Time magazine notices a key point that we've mentioned for some time, "Iran's need to find fresh supplies of raw uranium supplies is increasingly urgent, according to some reports."

1830 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). Following the announcement by major French firm Total that it will pull out of Iran  if US sanctions proceed and the defiant stance of Iranian officials that absolutely nothing was wrong with energy supplies --- see 0540 and 1050 GMT), Italian company Eni says it is "working on handing over the operatorship of the Iranian Darquain oil field to local partners".

NEW Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “We Will Make The Nation Victorious”
Iran: The Mousavi 4-Point Message “Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"
Iran Exclusive: A Birthday Message to Detained Journalist Baghi from His Daughter
The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View

1700 GMT: Impact. We've known for days that opposition figures have been building up their challenge to the Government, but it's today, with the revelation of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on Monday, that you know the wave has hit.


For the first time in weeks, the non-Iranian mainstream media is taking notice of the opposition as more than a post-11 February blip. Reuters headlines, "Iran opposition urges vote anniversary rally"; CNN, who established an "Iran Desk" for the 22 Bahman (11 February) demonstration and soon let it lapse, follows suit: "Iranian opposition candidates call for renewed protests".

1125 GMT: No Further Comment Necessary. From Press TV: "Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi said that it is 'ridiculous' to place limitations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy by making 'unfounded' claims about human rights and freedom of women."

1050 GMT: All is Well  Update. Despite the accumulating news of a possible oil squeeze on Tehran with foreign producers withdrawing imports, the Government line is No Problem:

Iran says its strategic gasoline reserves have climbed by a billion liters, reiterating that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never materialize.

"Iran is not worried about (possible) gasoline sanctions," Deputy Oil Minister Noureddin Shahnazi-Zadeh told Iran's Mehr News Agency on Tuesday, adding that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never occur as there is no possibility of imposing such sanctions under current conditions.

1045 GMT: We have posted a short video from Monday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in which the two agreed to call a demonstration for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We have also posted a feature of how EA's list of detained Iranian journalists may have made its way into an Austrian newspaper's interview of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

0835 GMT: British Deportation. Last week, we reported on the British Government's plan to deport Bita Ghaedi, an Iranian woman who fled the country because of alleged abuse by her father and brother. Ghaedi was being returned to Tehran despite the likelihood that she would face punishment because of her participation in a rally protesting conflict over Iraq' s Camp Ashraf, home to many members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran.

Volcanic ash intervened to prevent Ghaedi's flight last week; however, her deportation has now been rescheduled for 5 May.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

0750 GMT: Labour Watch. A collection of Iranian unions have issued a joint 15-point statement for May Day, "strongly supporting the demands of teachers, nurses, and other working classes of society to end discrimination".

Member of Parliament Alireza Mahjoub has criticised the Government's failure to implement rises in pensions and the hidden discrimination against female workers.

0740 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has harshly criticised the "feminist and anti-family" views of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Motahari said that Hashemi's critique of polygamy was misguided, as the prohibition of polygamy would lead to prostitution.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amidst reports of the poor health of many detainees, reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian has insisted that a Majlis commission investigate the prisons.

0710 GMT: A Successful Protest. The sit-in of female detainees at Evin Prison has forced authorities to establish the separation of men and women in the facility.

0700 GMT: Corruption Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has repeated the claim that the Supreme Leader has insisted the corruption case against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi must be dropped because of "sensitive issues of nezam (the Iranian system)".

0640 GMT: We Persist. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a protest against the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission that the reformist party be suspended. The IIPF declares that it will continue its activities.

The protest is signed by Mohsen Safai-Farahani, who was recently handed a six-year prison sentence.

0630 GMT: More Challenges. From the conservative side, leading member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has said that the number and impudence of corrupt high-level officials have risen. He insisted that these officials must be confronted, no matter where and who they serve.

And reformist Ahmad Shirzad has asserted that the opposition movement has been bolstered by the addition of "dissatisfied hardliners".

0540 GMT: Monday was notable for the rush of opposition challenges to the Government. There was Mehdi Karroubi on a law-abiding, Constitution-promoting resistance that would bring victory to Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi's "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?",  and Zahra Rahnavard calling for the release of detained workers and teachers.

Of course, the important leap will be from statement to action. Yet it is striking this moment to compare the renewed calls for justice and freedom with the Government's rhetorical flourishes.

There was President Ahmadinejad again looking outside Iran with his promotion of the "satanic tools" of the United Nations and the US. There was Foreign Minister Mottaki, confronted with a list of more than 100 detained journalists and political analysts, replying brusquely, "Stick to the nuclear issue."

And there were apparent flights of desperation. As the chief executive of the French oil company Total was announcing that it would pull out of Iran if US sanctions proceeded, the deputy head of Iran's oil industry, Hojatollah Ghanimi-Fard, proclamed, "Iran has negotiated development projects with several foreign oil companies, including French concerns."

Ghanimi-Fard's optimism contrasted sharply with a statement from the Revolutionary Guard that it was prepared to replace Total and Royal Dutch Shell in oil and natural gas projects. Ali Vakili, the managing director of the Pars Oil and Gas Company, said a one-week ultimatum had been given to Shell and Spanish company Repsol, “We will not delay the development of South Pars phases waiting for foreign companies.”

The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad's Struggle

1720 GMT: Ahmadinjead Brings Culture to the World; Students Aren't Sure. The President's adivsor, Somreh Hashemin, has told university students that "world discourse" has changed because of Ahmadinejad's statements --- therefore it now has culture, science, and ethics.

Students at Allameh Tabatabei University may not have been convinced, however, as both reports and video indicate:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKuNhRZsJQA[/youtube]

Iran’s Nukes: Can Tehran and the US Make A Deal?
The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad’s Struggle

1715 GMT: Out of Jail and On-Line. Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, jailed for several months after the election and selected for a high-profile "confession" in August, has resumed blogging.


1710 GMT: Economy Watch. MP Alireza Mahjoub has predicted a continuation of the poor situation, with 40% inflation, poverty, and economic "suffocation".

1700 GMT: Absence or Protest? Khabar Online reports that one-third of MPs were missing from the Majlis today.

1555 GMT: The Corruption Case. MP Elyas Naderan, the leading Parliamentary critic of First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, has sarcastically thanked the Government for accusing him of making false charges. Naderan assured that he will continue to press the corruption case.

1545 GMT: The Row Over the 15 June Demonstration. Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province, may have denied his reported statement that the large 15 June protests were authorised. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, however, is persisting with the claim. The website documents Tamaddon's apparent approval of 15 June rally.

1525 GMT: The "Other" Khamenei. Continuing his show of support for reformist leaders, Seyed Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader, has visited Mohsen Mirdamadi, the chairman of the Islamic Iran Participation Front. Mirdamadi is on temporary release from his prison sentence.

1510 GMT: But China Eases the Pressure? And while there is the ongoing public show over Beijing's will-it-won't-it join international sanctions, this news --- coming as other oil firms stop imports to Iran --- is striking:

State-run Chinaoil has sold two gasoline cargoes for April delivery to Iran, industry sources said on Wednesday, stepping into a void left by fuel suppliers halting shipments under threat of U.S. sanctions....

While others back out, Chinaoil has sold a total of about 600,000 barrels worth around $55 million to the Islamic Republic.

The cargoes were Chinaoil’s first direct sales to Iran since at least January 2009, according to Reuters data. Chinese firms have previously sold through intermediaries, traders said.

1445 GMT: Is Third-Party Enrichment Back On? Reading President Ahmadinejad's bluster in recent days, we asked (1040 GMT), "Is the President actually holding the door open for another push at a deal on uranium enrichment?"

Well, have a look at Iranian state media's presentation of the latest words from the head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, in an interview with a Russian newspaper:

The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) says Tehran would accept a nuclear fuel swap, should the West manage to win back its trust.

The US-proposed UN-backed deal requires Iran to send most of its low-enriched uranium abroad for further processing and conversion into fuel rods for Tehran's research reactor....

Salehi said that Iran had agreed to the IAEA-backed proposal [for third once it was proffered but needed guarantees from the West that it would deliver the fuel in a timely manner — a demand shrugged off by the West.

"We did not refuse. We agreed at once and we agree now. The only problem is guarantees. They suggested that we hand over a thousand pounds of our 3.5% low-enriched uranium. And wait until the entire amount of uranium has been enriched to a level of 20%," he said. 'Suppose we have given all our uranium. But where is the assurance [that we receive the fuel in a timely manner]?"

1430 GMT: The German Squeeze. The German carmaker Daimler has announced that it will
almost entirely cease business in Iran.

Daimler's chief executive Dieter Zetsche  told shareholders, The policies of the current Iranian leadership have compelled us to put our business relationship with that country on a new footing. In general, our business activities with Iran will now be limited to meeting our existing contractual obligations and continuing our cooperation with established customers."

Daimler will relinquish its 30 percent stake in Iranian Diesel Engine
Manufacturing, a subsidiary of Iranian Khodro Diesel.

The move is further testimony that behind the public rhetoric of leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for state-based sanctions on Iran, the real pressure is coming from the disinvestment of private companies. Daimler's move following the pullout from Iran of two of Germany's largest insurance companies.

1110 GMT: And, cutting through the Presidential rhetoric and posturing, we've posted an analysis by Julien Mercille on the possibility of a US-Iran deal on enriched uranium for Tehran's medical research reactor.

1040 GMT: Blowing Smoke. How many dramatic foreign policy pronouncements do we get to enjoy from President Ahmadinejad this week?

Following his assessment of foreign leaders as "retarded" and his letter to the United Nations implying that the US Government set up 9-11 for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the President has said that "[US President Barack] Obama cannot do anything in Palestine, they won't let him do anything and he has no chance" and there is no possibility of success in Iraq and Afghanistan: "What can he do in Iraq? Nothing. And Afghanistan is too complicated."

So Ahmadinejad concludes, "Mr. Obama has only one chance and that is Iran. This is not an emotional comment, it's scientific."

Which only leaves the question, success with Iran through what? Is the President actually holding the door open for another push at a deal on uranium enrichment?

1000 GMT: The 15 June March. Still some confusion over whether Iranian authorities --- specifically, Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province --- said they had authorised the mass demonstration three days after the election.

The Green Voice of Freedom repeated the claim of Parleman News, itself taken from an alleged Tamaddon interview with a magazine, that the march "was actually held with legal authorisation". It appears, however, that GVF has not noted Tamaddon's subsequent denial, which we reported yesterday, of the supposed statement. His line remains that the protest, which brought hundreds of thousands and possibly millions on the streets, was illegal.

0245 GMT. Rafsanjani Watch. Make of this what you will: Hashemi Rafsanjani has made a well-publicised visit this week to Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

Hassan Khomeini has been under sustained pressure from the Government throughout the post-election crisis over his apparent support for opposition demands,

0240 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ashura protester Hossein Vahed has received a two-year prison sentence.

0230 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online reports that Iran has "lost" $2 billion on oil fields.

0215 GMT: You Can't Keep A President Down (Or Can't You?).

The President-Parliament battle over economic plans escalates. Ahmadinejad has insisted that all changes will be implemented this year.

Key legislators and Ahmadinejad critics are not being so positive, Ahmad Tavakoli has declared that an agreement between two or three MPs and the President doesn't mean an agreement between the Majlis and the Government. That line is also taken by Elyas Naderan.

How serious is the dispute? Vice President Fatemeh Badaghi has threatened MPs by asserting that immunity for their actions exists only in Parliament.

The Latest from Iran (10 April): Look Over There!

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Human rights activists claim that most companies in Qazvin province will remain closed until end of the current Iranian month of Farvardin.

1445 GMT: Economy Watch. Although five major oil companies, included Shell, have recently suspended imports to Iran, here are the big players who ensure that Tehran doesn’t feel the squeeze quite as much: Petronas (Malaysia), Independent (Kuwait) and Total (France) are Iran’s largest suppliers.

NEW Iran: The Green Movement in Transition (Rafat)
Iran: How I Suddenly Disappeared on Press TV
Mousavi: “Can Repression & Brute Force Solve Iran’s Problems?”
The Latest from Iran: Dialogue or Conflict? (9 April)

1430 GMT: Remembering. Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader and a reformist, has visited the family of the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, killed during the Ashura demonstrations.



1415 GMT: Corruption Watch. The latest on the alleged corruption ring, including the Fatemi Avenue insurance fraud, inside the Government….

Rah-e-Sabz claims the Government will charge MP Elyas Naderan, who has made the public allegations, instead of the accused First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

Meanwhile, Khabar Online claims that Rahimi has handed out 18 oil projects to groups close to the Government. And reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has asserted that about 100 fraudsters in Iran’s oil water, and sewage ministries and some insurance companies have been arrested recently and has demanded that their names be published.

1300 GMT: Economic Front. Beyond the specific quarrel over subsidies and spending, there is a wider political feud over economic approach amongst conservatives and principlists.

Ahmad Tavakoli, one of the harshest Parliamentary critics of Ahmadinejad, has denounced the “liberal” capitalist approach since the President took office in 2005. (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-53796.aspx) There is a similar attack in Alef on “Ahmadinejad and the Chicago boys”, a reference to the free-market, monetarist philosophy of University of Chicago economists such as Milton Friedman. The economic failures of the Iranian system are attributed to the US, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other usual culprits. (http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/67173/)

A much better critique comes from Sadegh Zibakalam in Aftab, as he argues that “many of the Revolutionaries’ accusations about the US are unfounded” (http://www.iran-emrooz.net/index.php?/news1/21873/)

1200 GMT: Round-up….

A new Persian news website, DayPress, has been established.

Rah-e-Sabz is gloating, with more than a bit of anticipating, over the subsidy/spending fight: After Ahmadinejad’s threat to resign, are the Supreme Leader and Majlis going to bow down to him?

There may be a compromise in the works, however, according to Khabar Online.

0545 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Ahmad Rafat of "The Green Movement in Transition".

0535 GMT: Economy Watch. It is being reported that some workers in Iran's state telecommunications company have gone 12 months without wages.

0530 GMT: Detaining the Press. EA correspondents are currently working on an updated list of imprisoned journalists: one of them is photojournalist Babak Bordbar, detained on Ashura, for whom Peyke Iran has published an appeal.

0500 GMT: Not for the first time, we begin the day with the story of a great diversion. Iran's National Nuclear Day was the pretext for an all-day regime show displaying the nuclear issue, and thus Tehran's victory in the struggle against US pressure and duplicity, and hoping no one would notice other developments at home.

And on that stage, the effort was far from a bust. The showpiece announcement was not that dramatic --- an alleged third-generation uranium centrifuge, six times more effective than its first-generation predecssor. (I had expected the President to run with the declaration of "one or two" additional sites for the nuclear programme.) Ahmadinejad's unveiling of one of those centrifuges was more Science Fair than Science Breakthrough in appearance, but it did set a short-term agenda.

Press TV, for example, could herald the great achievement without coming close to practical questions, such as how many centrifuges? Where will they be located? When will they be on-line? Given that more than half of Natanz's existing second-generation centrifuges were not in use, on latest count, where is the assurance that third-generation successors will operate at a signficant capacity?

And, of course, Iranian state media chose the "appropriate" political framing. The steady beat of Iranian right and pride v. US-led pressure swept away other considerations. No one, for example, had to think about Ahmadinejad's continued use of the nuclear and military issues --- remember the mock missile at the regime's 22 Bahman (11 February) rally? --- as props for legitimacy.

And, of course, no one had to interrupt National Nuclear Day with other inconveniences such as the escalating Parliament-President battle, now to the point of Ahmadinejad's threatened resignation, the charges of corruption against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, and the signs of opposition revival through meetings and statements such as Thursday's Mir Hossein Mousavi statement and yesterday's declaration by Mohammad Khatami. (The last-minute cancellation of a guest on Press TV's News Analysis programme ensured that the standard Punch-and-Judy show --- one guest defending Iran's peaceful quest for nuclear advance vs. another gently suggesting why there might be "Western" concerns --- could proceed.)

Did the international media pull back the screen on the President's wizardry? Well. no. CNN ran with it as "Ahmadinejad: Iran has 'fully mastered' nuclear technology". (There is, however, an intriguing break from the pack in The New York Times, which runs a Saturday Profile on Mohsen Sazegara, the former creator of the Revolutionary Guard who is now a foe of the regime, and his YouTube broadcast.)