The Latest from Iran (19 April): Stay Firm, Spread the Word

2045 GMT: Who's "Mohareb"? Ayatollah Dastgheib has repeated his denunciation of the Government's labelling of dissenters as "mohareb" (warriors against God), a charge which carries the death penalty: “The pious would never make baseless accusations.”

Dastgheib also implied that the real "mohareb" are those who have used violence against protesters: “Mohareb is a person who violates people’s right by pulling a gun, a knife or a weapon on them.”

1945 GMT: We've posted the English text of the speech Mohammad Khatami would have given at this week's disarmament conference in Hiroshima, Japan. Khatami was pressured by Iranian authorities not to leave the country.

NEW Iran Document: The Speech Khatami Would Have Given at Japan Disarmament Conference
NEW Iran Document: “Our Sons’ And Daughters’ Agony” (Sahabi)
Iran Document: The Supreme Leader on Nuclear Weapons (17 April)
Iran Analysis: And The Nuclear Sideshow Goes On…And On…And On
The Latest from Iran (18 April): Strike A Pose

1900 GMT: Nuke Talk. Back from extended break to find today's Iran Government uranium talking points in my Inbox.

It's Kazem Jalali of Parliament's National Security Commission putting out the line that the UN-hosted review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), held every five years, will follow up Iran's good work this weekend with its disarmament summit.

Jalali said of the May gathering, "Two fronts will battle out in New York: a US-led one will seek to limit non-nuclear states which are hoping to develop peaceful nuclear technology; the second front will consist of countries with no nuclear bombs that seek global nuclear disarmament."


1255 GMT: No More "Legal" Reformists? Iranian state media are repeating the news, which we reported a few days ago, that Iran's major reformist political parties, the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, have been banned.

The leading reformist newspaper Bahar, which only recently resumed publication, has again been suspended by Iranian authorities.

An EA correspondent notes concisely, "Seems like it's a case of repression, and more repression, considering the definitive sentences slapped on [reformist politicians] Mostafa Tajzadeh and Mohsen Mirdamadi."

1245 GMT: On the theme of "Stay Firm", we've posted a letter from veteran Iran politician Ezzatollah Sahabi, "Our Sons' and Daughters' Agony".

1050 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist and human rights activist Davood Khodakarami has been arrested in Zanjan, while journalist Rahim Gholami was imprisoned in Ardebil last week.

According to EA colleagues who are maintaining a list of  those imprisoned or on heavy bail but under the threat of re-arrest, the total is now 78 journalists. We hope to post the updated list soon.

1045 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. So did Hashemi Rafsanjani meet with the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to discuss the possible criminal prosecution of Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi?

The judiciary have strongly denied the claim, which Khabar Online says is being spread by Elyas Naderan, the "conservative" MP who is a sharp critic of the Ahmadinejad Government.

At the same time, pro-Ahmadinejad legislator Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash has insisted that Mehdi Hashemi and Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, must be prosecuted for "acting against the basis" of the Iranian system.

1040 GMT: Staying Firm. Seyed Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader, has said that, despite Government pressures and restrictions, the demands of the Iranian people are only increasing.

1030 GMT: Nuclear Shocker --- Iran Proclaims, Media Jumps. Today's ritual declaration in state media of Tehran's nuclear advance comes from Ahmadinejad advisor Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi: "The president has confirmed the designated location of a new nuclear site and on his order the building process has begun."

My reaction is that the 25th or 35th or 235th time the same announcement of new sites --- whether it is 1, 10, or 20 --- is made, it ceases to become news and moves into the category of chanting. Reuters, however, is undeterred from announcing for the 25th or 35th or 235th time, "[This is] part of a big expansion of its nuclear program which has contributed to fears in the West it aims to build a bomb."

1025 GMT: Mystery Aide Contest. Khabar Online reports that a group of clergy who serve in the Parliament will meet the Supreme Leader on Monday to discuss Government-Parliament issues, raising criticism of a close ally of Ahmadinejad for "anti-cultural" moves.

So to whom is Khabar Online, the site linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, referring?

1020 GMT: Subsidy Battle. The Government may have won an apparent victory with Parliamentary concessions allowing greater spending from subsidy cuts, but the criticism continues.

Khabar Online features the commentary of Professor Hassan Sobhani, who maintains that the Ahmadinejad subsidy cuts will not raise people's purchasing power but reduce it.

1000 GMT: Following Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to reformist students calling for all in opposition to be "new media" --- for every blog closed, let 100 spring up --- Mehdi Karroubi, in a meeting with activists and families of political prisoners, has declared:

Has our government become so desperate and weak that even the funeral ceremonies of people, either political or non-political, face problems?....Why are you trying to make our strong and powerful system seem weak in the minds of nations and governments? ....Unfortunately it seems like instead of trying to attract most and repulse least, we are trying to achieve the most repulsion and the least attraction.

The government prefer their own views and methods of ruling to the strict rulings of Islam. People have become more cautious and their movement is growing. Stay firm on your legitimate and legal demands and insist on them.

The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad's Struggle

1720 GMT: Ahmadinjead Brings Culture to the World; Students Aren't Sure. The President's adivsor, Somreh Hashemin, has told university students that "world discourse" has changed because of Ahmadinejad's statements --- therefore it now has culture, science, and ethics.

Students at Allameh Tabatabei University may not have been convinced, however, as both reports and video indicate:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKuNhRZsJQA[/youtube]

Iran’s Nukes: Can Tehran and the US Make A Deal?
The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad’s Struggle

1715 GMT: Out of Jail and On-Line. Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, jailed for several months after the election and selected for a high-profile "confession" in August, has resumed blogging.


1710 GMT: Economy Watch. MP Alireza Mahjoub has predicted a continuation of the poor situation, with 40% inflation, poverty, and economic "suffocation".

1700 GMT: Absence or Protest? Khabar Online reports that one-third of MPs were missing from the Majlis today.

1555 GMT: The Corruption Case. MP Elyas Naderan, the leading Parliamentary critic of First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, has sarcastically thanked the Government for accusing him of making false charges. Naderan assured that he will continue to press the corruption case.

1545 GMT: The Row Over the 15 June Demonstration. Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province, may have denied his reported statement that the large 15 June protests were authorised. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, however, is persisting with the claim. The website documents Tamaddon's apparent approval of 15 June rally.

1525 GMT: The "Other" Khamenei. Continuing his show of support for reformist leaders, Seyed Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader, has visited Mohsen Mirdamadi, the chairman of the Islamic Iran Participation Front. Mirdamadi is on temporary release from his prison sentence.

1510 GMT: But China Eases the Pressure? And while there is the ongoing public show over Beijing's will-it-won't-it join international sanctions, this news --- coming as other oil firms stop imports to Iran --- is striking:

State-run Chinaoil has sold two gasoline cargoes for April delivery to Iran, industry sources said on Wednesday, stepping into a void left by fuel suppliers halting shipments under threat of U.S. sanctions....

While others back out, Chinaoil has sold a total of about 600,000 barrels worth around $55 million to the Islamic Republic.

The cargoes were Chinaoil’s first direct sales to Iran since at least January 2009, according to Reuters data. Chinese firms have previously sold through intermediaries, traders said.

1445 GMT: Is Third-Party Enrichment Back On? Reading President Ahmadinejad's bluster in recent days, we asked (1040 GMT), "Is the President actually holding the door open for another push at a deal on uranium enrichment?"

Well, have a look at Iranian state media's presentation of the latest words from the head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, in an interview with a Russian newspaper:

The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) says Tehran would accept a nuclear fuel swap, should the West manage to win back its trust.

The US-proposed UN-backed deal requires Iran to send most of its low-enriched uranium abroad for further processing and conversion into fuel rods for Tehran's research reactor....

Salehi said that Iran had agreed to the IAEA-backed proposal [for third once it was proffered but needed guarantees from the West that it would deliver the fuel in a timely manner — a demand shrugged off by the West.

"We did not refuse. We agreed at once and we agree now. The only problem is guarantees. They suggested that we hand over a thousand pounds of our 3.5% low-enriched uranium. And wait until the entire amount of uranium has been enriched to a level of 20%," he said. 'Suppose we have given all our uranium. But where is the assurance [that we receive the fuel in a timely manner]?"

1430 GMT: The German Squeeze. The German carmaker Daimler has announced that it will
almost entirely cease business in Iran.

Daimler's chief executive Dieter Zetsche  told shareholders, The policies of the current Iranian leadership have compelled us to put our business relationship with that country on a new footing. In general, our business activities with Iran will now be limited to meeting our existing contractual obligations and continuing our cooperation with established customers."

Daimler will relinquish its 30 percent stake in Iranian Diesel Engine
Manufacturing, a subsidiary of Iranian Khodro Diesel.

The move is further testimony that behind the public rhetoric of leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for state-based sanctions on Iran, the real pressure is coming from the disinvestment of private companies. Daimler's move following the pullout from Iran of two of Germany's largest insurance companies.

1110 GMT: And, cutting through the Presidential rhetoric and posturing, we've posted an analysis by Julien Mercille on the possibility of a US-Iran deal on enriched uranium for Tehran's medical research reactor.

1040 GMT: Blowing Smoke. How many dramatic foreign policy pronouncements do we get to enjoy from President Ahmadinejad this week?

Following his assessment of foreign leaders as "retarded" and his letter to the United Nations implying that the US Government set up 9-11 for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the President has said that "[US President Barack] Obama cannot do anything in Palestine, they won't let him do anything and he has no chance" and there is no possibility of success in Iraq and Afghanistan: "What can he do in Iraq? Nothing. And Afghanistan is too complicated."

So Ahmadinejad concludes, "Mr. Obama has only one chance and that is Iran. This is not an emotional comment, it's scientific."

Which only leaves the question, success with Iran through what? Is the President actually holding the door open for another push at a deal on uranium enrichment?

1000 GMT: The 15 June March. Still some confusion over whether Iranian authorities --- specifically, Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province --- said they had authorised the mass demonstration three days after the election.

The Green Voice of Freedom repeated the claim of Parleman News, itself taken from an alleged Tamaddon interview with a magazine, that the march "was actually held with legal authorisation". It appears, however, that GVF has not noted Tamaddon's subsequent denial, which we reported yesterday, of the supposed statement. His line remains that the protest, which brought hundreds of thousands and possibly millions on the streets, was illegal.

0245 GMT. Rafsanjani Watch. Make of this what you will: Hashemi Rafsanjani has made a well-publicised visit this week to Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

Hassan Khomeini has been under sustained pressure from the Government throughout the post-election crisis over his apparent support for opposition demands,

0240 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ashura protester Hossein Vahed has received a two-year prison sentence.

0230 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online reports that Iran has "lost" $2 billion on oil fields.

0215 GMT: You Can't Keep A President Down (Or Can't You?).

The President-Parliament battle over economic plans escalates. Ahmadinejad has insisted that all changes will be implemented this year.

Key legislators and Ahmadinejad critics are not being so positive, Ahmad Tavakoli has declared that an agreement between two or three MPs and the President doesn't mean an agreement between the Majlis and the Government. That line is also taken by Elyas Naderan.

How serious is the dispute? Vice President Fatemeh Badaghi has threatened MPs by asserting that immunity for their actions exists only in Parliament.