The Latest from Iran (29 April): Preparations

2020 GMT: A Cleric's May Day Message. Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, meeting workers in advance of May Day, has said: “Today the problems are many and to solve them either no actions are taken or [the government] is incapable of taking any actions. The main issue is that solving these problems has been assigned to those who are not experts in these topics.”

Mousavi-Ardebili also touched on the charges of impropriety against the Government: “Our expectations from Parliament is to show more resistance against the unlawful actions [of the administration] because if, in the Parliament that is the house of the people and is where the laws are passed, these issues are ignored the situation would be worse in other places.”

NEW Iran Video and Summary: The Mousavi Statement for May Day/Teachers Day (29 April)
NEW Iran: The Establishment Frets Over the Supreme Leader
Iran Document: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (26 April)Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Joke of the Day
The Latest from Iran (28 April): Making a Date

Mousavi-Ardebili added, “These days to solve the problems there is nothing left for us to do but praying, since when we give our inputs about an issue it is being ignored.”


1940 GMT: Political Prisoner News. Days before National Teachers Day and planned demonstrations, it is being reported that Alireza Hashemi, the Secretary General of the Teachers Organization, has been arrested.

1500 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. It's no longer fresh news that Italy's largest oil and gas company, Eni, is pulling out of Iran projects because of the prospect of tougher US sanctions on any firm dealing with Tehran (see Tuesday's updates). It is significant that the news is now being carried by Press TV.

1455 GMT: We've posted today's Mir Hossein Mousavi video, accompanied by a summary from Radio Zamaneh, as a separate entry.

1330 GMT: Writing About the Crisis. Our German Bureau reports that prominent Iranian poets and writers, including Simin Behbahani, Yadollah Royai, Esmail Khoi and Majid Naficy, have contributed to a new anthology,  "Protest of the Pen", published in Persian.

0945 GMT: Investigation or Cover-Up? Shadi Sadr offers her views on the enquiry into the Kahrizak Prison abuses, leading to the death penalty for two police officers and a prisoner:

Gentlemen! Enough magic! We know and you know that the story cannot vanish with the execution of three individuals; indeed, no injury can be cured by more death and execution. The only thing that can satisfy us is knowing the truth about all victims of Kahrizak; the truth about the death of Ramin Pourandarjani, the assigned physician at the facility; and the description of what transpired from the perpetrators of the crimes, on national television.

0940 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has released a video statement for May Day and Iran's Teachers Day (2 May).

0935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has a summary of recent arrests of students and the poor health of some detainees.

0925 GMT: Economy Watch. Voice of America claims that, of an estimated 8200 Iranian companies in Dubai, 400 have closed because of sanctions.

0920 GMT: Clerical Matters. Rah-e-Sabz offers an analysis of the President's relationship with senior clerics in Qom, claiming that there were tensions in Ahmadinejad's first term and that only a few marja are offering greetings for his second term.

0915 GMT: Labour/Political Prisoner Watch. Homayoun Jaberi, a member of the Syndicate of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company, has been sentenced by the Revolutionary Court to a year in prison, suspended for three years (effectively a probation).

0835 GMT: Mr Verde is back, offering an analysis of the worries of the Iranian "establishment" over the position of the Supreme Leader.

0820 GMT: Corruption Watch (cont.). Elyas Naderan, the conservative member of Parliament who has been leading the campaign against the Government, has criticised the President for not waging a fight against corruption and for appointing questionable officials (for example, at Iran's Oil Commission), and (at NIOC etc.) because of political motivations.

0745 GMT: Corruption Watch. The drumbeat of criticism from conservative members of Parliament continues. Yesterday we noted Ali Motahari challenging underhanded dealings and nepotism in the judiciary; today we find Ahmad Tavakoli launching an even wider attack:

We have reached a state where political corruption is rampant, with some even trying to influence decision makers through bribes. This kind of corruption is much worse than economic corruption, because in economic corruption individuals pursue base and materialistic interest, but in political corruption it is possible that legal decisions would be made to facilitate certain people’s corrupt pursuits and lead to the interference of some in distributing the enormous oil proceeds.”

Political corruption is the involvement of politicians in economic corruption, whereby they buy and sell laws and regulations. This is a much more important disease that some are afflicted with now by trying to infiltrate the Majlis using bribes, threats or promises. Unfortunately we don’t have comprehensive laws dealing with political corruption.

If this problem is not dealt with today, tomorrow would be very late.

Tavakoli then gets specific, targeting the First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, accused of involvement in a major insurance fraud:"The judiciary is now facing a difficult test, because it has moved forward to investigate two important cases. One deals with an administration official and the other with a relative of a senior regime official. If the judiciary falls short of dealing with either case, in my opinion it would flunk the public opinion test and won’t have any standing left for combating corruption.”

0715 GMT: May Day. Rah-e-Sabz has now published the 15-demand declaration of the coalition of Iranian labour groups.

0645 GMT: So, after a flurry of statements from opposition figures (Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi) and groups (reformist parties, teachers, workers), we see if declaration will lead to action.

My interest is not in President Ahmadinejad's next move. Once more he is trying the foreign distraction, applying for and receiving a visa to attend the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty next Monday. That is matched by a roll-call of statements from Government officials and supportive members of Parliament that it is the US who is the nuclear culprit --- see, for example, the assertion of Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Alathat Washington should apologize for its failure to abide by its obligations under international law and the NPT.

No, time will be better spent looking for ripples, as in public gatherings of workers, teachers, and other activist groups for the week around May Day. And then the question is whether there will indeed be another wave for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

An opening teaser question: will Mousavi, who has repeatedly been kept away by Iranian authorities from mass demonstrations since last June, finally move from statement to open defiance by joining the marchers six weeks from now?

The Latest from Iran (28 April): Making a Date

2130 GMT: Controlling the Teachers. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty summarises the pressure by Iranian authorities on teachers ahead of Teachers Day on 2 May.

This includes the arrest of two senior members of Iran's teachers union, Ali Akbar Baghani, and spokesman Mohammad Beheshti Langarudi, warnings to activists in several cities, including Tehran and Tabriz, not to take part in any protests, and fines and arrests for demonstrating. It is reported that several blogs and websites on teachers' issues have been blocked.

NEW Iran Document: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (26 April)
NEW Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Joke of the Day
Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)

Earlier this week, the Coordinating Council of the Teachers Trade Unions called for a hunger strike on Teachers' Week (May 2-8) to protest prison sentences and death penalties handed out to teachers. Four teachers are reported to have been jailed in recent months and at least one, Kurdish teacher Farzad Kamangar, is facing the death penalty.


2045 GMT: Corruption Watch. Conservative member of Parliament Ali Motahari has criticized Iran's judiciary for lack of independence and nepotism.

Motahari told the Iranian Students News Agency that, in corruption cases involving relatives of top officials, prosecutors are seeking permission from the officials themselves before even investigating.

1600 GMT: Oil Squeeze Posturing. In an interview with Khabar Online, Ali Vakili, the managing director of Iran's Pars Oil and Gas Company, has warned Royal Dutch Shell and Spain's Repsol that they must declare if they plan to pursue a project, agreed in 2007, to develop liquefied natural gas in the South Pars field.

Shell recently announced that it is suspending all involvement in the project.

Vakili insisted that Iran can develop the South Pars, having overcome financial obstacles, and that it has the necessary technology.

1530 GMT: We've posted a special separate entry: the English translation of Monday's discussion between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1245 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The lawyer for reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh has said that Tajzadeh has not yet reported to prison to begin his six-year sentence: “My client was admitted into a hospital in Tehran because of his disc problem (in his back)....During the past 2 days, my client was expected to introduce himself to the prison to continue serving his prison term; however, this has not happened....As soon as his physical condition improves, he will present himself to the authorities.”

0845 GMT: Corruption Watch. Mardomsalari newspaper frets that corruption has become a political issue and warns that "justice" should end it once and for all before foreign ennemies can take advantage of the situation.

0830 GMT: The Subsidy Battle. While there has been a general between Parliament and President over the subsidy cut and spending plans, the fight over implementation continues.

Maintaining that Iran's political, social and economic situation cannot cope with a shock, MP Ahmad Tavakoli has written Ahmadinejad with three propositions: 1) no across-the-board rise in prices, 2) provision of reliable data on familiy's income, and 3) gradual implementation of the plan. ()

0810 GMT: Culture Wars. Rah-e-Sabz claims there will be increased pressure from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance upon people, especially women, to "satisfy the Supreme Leader" on the eve of the election's anniversary on 12 June. The website alleges there are "serious plans" for reeducation from kindergarten to university.

As if to prove the point, Kayhan proclaims that "bad hijab" has to be fought everywhere, from schools to offices.

0755 GMT: Does the Regime Need Legitimacy? An interesting debate, as reported by Rah-e-Sabz: the Supreme Leader's deputy to the Revolutionary Guard denies it is necessary to rely on people's votes, while Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi insists that the Government does precisely that.

0750 GMT: (More) Persistence. Reformist MP Rasul Montajabnia declares that hardliners cannot become an alternative to reformers and replace them: "We are alive."

0745 GMT: Continuing the Labour Theme. Rah-e-Sabz, anticipating May Day, reports that workers' incomes have suffered in the Iranian New Year. There are widespread dismissals and threats to dismiss those who "do not work enough". Meanwhile, protests have increased over the lack of accepted unions and organisations.

Reformist member of Parliament Hajsheikh Alikhani has insisted the government "doesn't give a damn about workers' problems".

0740 GMT: Awards. Hassan Karimzadeh from the banned newspaper Etemade Melli has won 1st prize in the World Press Cartoon competition.

Mahdi Razavi has been given an award by an Italian panel for his No War photograph.

0735 GMT: Labour Watch. Iran Labor Report offers a full summary of preparation for a "Labor Week" around May Day: "The experience of last May Day’s brutal clampdown...has prompted most independent labor organizations to call off May Day gatherings. Instead, they are encouraging workers to celebrate the occasion in small numbers at factories and shop-floors.

0730 GMT: Mahmoud Visits New York? A blog on the Foreign Policy website claims, from "senior UN officials and diplomats", that President Ahmadinejad has requested a visa to attend a high-level conference next week at United Nations headquarters to review progress on the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

0725 GMT: Not Worried (Really). The "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan has asserted that any Iranian using Haystack, the software developed by Austin Heap to allow access to the Internet while avoiding surveillance, will be tracked down by Iranian authorities. Kayhan claimed that the Green Movement is advising followers not to use the software.

0720 GMT: Persisting. The two major Iranian reformist organizations, Islamic Iran Participation Front and Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, announced that they will continue their activities despite the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission for the dissolution of the parties. Both factions called for a public hearing in order to defend all their activities.

Leaders of the two organizations have written to the Commission maintaining that the dissolution lacks “legal justification.”

0420 GMT: Time will tell, but Tuesday appeared to be a day to mark in this lengthening crisis. The building series of statements from opposition figures, notably Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, culminating in the emergence that, yes, the two men had met on Monday and, yes, they had called for a demonstration on 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We'll wait a day or two for follow-up before attempting an analysis, but the obvious issue is whether --- after 2 1/2 months of relative passivity since the 22 Bahman (11 February) moment --- those challenging the regime can seize the initiative.

That follow-up has already begun. Mehdi Karroubi, in comments posted on Mihan News, has set out and defended his political approach, working with a cross-section of opposition groups: "I have talked to a lot of leftists. They did not become Muslim, and I didn't become a Communist." The message is not only for the regime, but for the Green Movement: secular and religious can co-exist in the demand for justice and rights in the Islamic Republic.

The Karroubi-Mousavi accompanies other signs of a renewed challenge to the Government. A Street Journalist has published an English translation of the joint resolution, with 15 demands, issued by a coalition of Iranian labour groups.

Elsewhere, reformist MP Jamshid Ansari has declared that, contrary to its claims, Parliament has not initiated an investigation into the attack on the dormitories of Tehran University on the night of 14/15 June.

In a debate with fellow MP Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghaddam at Tehran University, Ansari said, “You should not expect any report from the Parliament regarding this matter because no committee has been assigned to this task, neither by the Speaker nor by the Parliament.”

The raids by security forces killed several people and caused extensive damage, two days after the elections and hours before the mass march on 15 June.

The Latest from Iran (19 April): Stay Firm, Spread the Word

2045 GMT: Who's "Mohareb"? Ayatollah Dastgheib has repeated his denunciation of the Government's labelling of dissenters as "mohareb" (warriors against God), a charge which carries the death penalty: “The pious would never make baseless accusations.”

Dastgheib also implied that the real "mohareb" are those who have used violence against protesters: “Mohareb is a person who violates people’s right by pulling a gun, a knife or a weapon on them.”

1945 GMT: We've posted the English text of the speech Mohammad Khatami would have given at this week's disarmament conference in Hiroshima, Japan. Khatami was pressured by Iranian authorities not to leave the country.

NEW Iran Document: The Speech Khatami Would Have Given at Japan Disarmament Conference
NEW Iran Document: “Our Sons’ And Daughters’ Agony” (Sahabi)
Iran Document: The Supreme Leader on Nuclear Weapons (17 April)
Iran Analysis: And The Nuclear Sideshow Goes On…And On…And On
The Latest from Iran (18 April): Strike A Pose

1900 GMT: Nuke Talk. Back from extended break to find today's Iran Government uranium talking points in my Inbox.

It's Kazem Jalali of Parliament's National Security Commission putting out the line that the UN-hosted review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), held every five years, will follow up Iran's good work this weekend with its disarmament summit.

Jalali said of the May gathering, "Two fronts will battle out in New York: a US-led one will seek to limit non-nuclear states which are hoping to develop peaceful nuclear technology; the second front will consist of countries with no nuclear bombs that seek global nuclear disarmament."


1255 GMT: No More "Legal" Reformists? Iranian state media are repeating the news, which we reported a few days ago, that Iran's major reformist political parties, the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, have been banned.

The leading reformist newspaper Bahar, which only recently resumed publication, has again been suspended by Iranian authorities.

An EA correspondent notes concisely, "Seems like it's a case of repression, and more repression, considering the definitive sentences slapped on [reformist politicians] Mostafa Tajzadeh and Mohsen Mirdamadi."

1245 GMT: On the theme of "Stay Firm", we've posted a letter from veteran Iran politician Ezzatollah Sahabi, "Our Sons' and Daughters' Agony".

1050 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist and human rights activist Davood Khodakarami has been arrested in Zanjan, while journalist Rahim Gholami was imprisoned in Ardebil last week.

According to EA colleagues who are maintaining a list of  those imprisoned or on heavy bail but under the threat of re-arrest, the total is now 78 journalists. We hope to post the updated list soon.

1045 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. So did Hashemi Rafsanjani meet with the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to discuss the possible criminal prosecution of Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi?

The judiciary have strongly denied the claim, which Khabar Online says is being spread by Elyas Naderan, the "conservative" MP who is a sharp critic of the Ahmadinejad Government.

At the same time, pro-Ahmadinejad legislator Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash has insisted that Mehdi Hashemi and Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, must be prosecuted for "acting against the basis" of the Iranian system.

1040 GMT: Staying Firm. Seyed Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader, has said that, despite Government pressures and restrictions, the demands of the Iranian people are only increasing.

1030 GMT: Nuclear Shocker --- Iran Proclaims, Media Jumps. Today's ritual declaration in state media of Tehran's nuclear advance comes from Ahmadinejad advisor Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi: "The president has confirmed the designated location of a new nuclear site and on his order the building process has begun."

My reaction is that the 25th or 35th or 235th time the same announcement of new sites --- whether it is 1, 10, or 20 --- is made, it ceases to become news and moves into the category of chanting. Reuters, however, is undeterred from announcing for the 25th or 35th or 235th time, "[This is] part of a big expansion of its nuclear program which has contributed to fears in the West it aims to build a bomb."

1025 GMT: Mystery Aide Contest. Khabar Online reports that a group of clergy who serve in the Parliament will meet the Supreme Leader on Monday to discuss Government-Parliament issues, raising criticism of a close ally of Ahmadinejad for "anti-cultural" moves.

So to whom is Khabar Online, the site linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, referring?

1020 GMT: Subsidy Battle. The Government may have won an apparent victory with Parliamentary concessions allowing greater spending from subsidy cuts, but the criticism continues.

Khabar Online features the commentary of Professor Hassan Sobhani, who maintains that the Ahmadinejad subsidy cuts will not raise people's purchasing power but reduce it.

1000 GMT: Following Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to reformist students calling for all in opposition to be "new media" --- for every blog closed, let 100 spring up --- Mehdi Karroubi, in a meeting with activists and families of political prisoners, has declared:

Has our government become so desperate and weak that even the funeral ceremonies of people, either political or non-political, face problems?....Why are you trying to make our strong and powerful system seem weak in the minds of nations and governments? ....Unfortunately it seems like instead of trying to attract most and repulse least, we are trying to achieve the most repulsion and the least attraction.

The government prefer their own views and methods of ruling to the strict rulings of Islam. People have become more cautious and their movement is growing. Stay firm on your legitimate and legal demands and insist on them.

Iran Document: The Supreme Leader on Nuclear Weapons (17 April)

From Fars News, via the US Government Open Source Center and Juan Cole:

In the Name of Allah, the Beneficent, the Merciful

I would like to welcome the honorable guests who have gathered here. It is a pleasure that the Islamic Republic of Iran is hosting the International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament today. Hopefully, you will make use of this opportunity and present human societies with the timeless and valuable results that you will obtain through discussion and consultation.

Iran Analysis: And The Nuclear Sideshow Goes On…And On…And On
The Latest from Iran (18 April): Strike A Pose

The study of atoms and nuclear sciences are one of the greatest human achievements which can and should be at the service of the well-being of nations across the world as well as the growth and development of all human societies. The applications of nuclear sciences cover a wide range of medical and industrial needs as well as energy requirements, each of which has considerable importance.


For this reason, it can be said that nuclear technology has gained a prominent position in economic areas of life. And with the passage of time and the rise in industrial and medical needs and energy requirements, its importance will continue growing, and the efforts to achieve and utilize nuclear energy will increase accordingly. Just like other nations of the world, Middle Eastern nations that are thirsty for peace, security, and progress have the right to guarantee their economic position as well as a superior position for their future generations through utilizing this technology. Preventing the nations of the region from paying serious attention to this natural and valuable right is probably one of the goals behind creating doubts about the peaceful nuclear programs of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The interesting point is that currently the only nuclear criminal in the world is falsely claiming to fight the proliferation of nuclear weapons. This is while there is no doubt that it has not taken any serious measures in this regard, and it will never do so. If America’s claims of fighting the proliferation of nuclear weapons were not false, would the Zionist regime be able to turn the occupied Palestinian lands into an arsenal where a huge number of nuclear weapons are stored while refusing to respect international regulations in this regard, especially the NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty]?

Unfortunately, although the word atom is associated with the progress of human knowledge, it is equally associated with the most appalling event in history and the greatest genocide and misuse of man’s scientific accomplishments. Although many countries have made an effort to manufacture and amass nuclear weapons — which in itself can be considered a preface to committing crimes and has seriously jeopardized global peace — there is only one government that has committed a nuclear crime so far. Only the government of the United States of America has attacked the oppressed people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki with atomic bombs in an unfair and inhumane war.

Since the detonation of the early nuclear weapons by the US Government in Hiroshima and Nagasaki created a human disaster of unprecedented proportions in history and exposed human security to a great threat, the global community has reached a unanimous agreement that it is necessary to completely destroy such weapons. The use of nuclear weapons resulted not only in large-scale killings and destruction, but also in indiscriminate massacre of people — military members and civilians, young and old, men and women. And its anti-human effects transcended political and geographic borders, even inflicting irreparable harm on future generations. Therefore, using or even threatening to use such weapons is a serious violation of the most basic rules of philanthropy and is a clear manifestation of war crimes.

From a military and security perspective, after certain powers were armed with this anti-human weapon, there remained no doubt that victory in a nuclear war would be impossible and that engagement in such a war would be an unwise and anti-human act. However, despite these obvious ethical, intellectual, human, and even military realities, the strong and repeated urge by the global community to dispose of these weapons has been ignored by a small number of governments who have based their illusory security on global insecurity.

The insistence of these governments on the possession and proliferation of nuclear weapons as well as increasing their destructive power — which are useless except for intimidation and massacre and a false sense of security based on pre-emptive power resulting from guaranteed annihilation of everyone — has led to an enduring nuclear nightmare in the world. Innumerable human and economic resources have been used in this irrational competition to give the superpowers the imaginary power to annihilate more than a thousand times their rivals as well as other inhabitants of the world including themselves. And it is due to this reason that this strategy has been known as pre-emption based on guaranteed mutual annihilation or insanity.

In recent years, a number of governments who possess nuclear weapons have even gone beyond the pre-emptive strategy based on mutual annihilation in dealing with other nuclear powers to the extent that in their nuclear policies they insist on maintaining the nuclear option even if they are faced with conventional threats from countries violating the NPT. This is while the greatest violators of the NPT are the powers who have reneged on their obligation to dispose of nuclear weapons mentioned in Article 6 of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. These powers have even surpassed other countries with respect to promoting nuclear weapons in the world. By providing the Zionist regime with nuclear weapons and supporting its policies, these powers play a direct role in promoting nuclear weapons which is against the obligations they have undertaken according to Article 1 of the NPT. These countries, headed by the bullying and aggressive US regime, have posed a serious threat to the Middle East region and the world.

It behoves the International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament to investigate the threats posed by the production and stockpiling of nuclear weapons in the world and propose realistic solutions to counter this threat to humanity. This will prepare the ground for taking steps toward safeguarding peace and stability.

We believe that besides nuclear weapons, other types of weapons of mass destruction such as chemical and biological weapons also pose a serious threat to humanity. The Iranian nation, which is itself a victim of chemical weapons, feels more than any other nation the danger that is caused by the production and stockpiling of such weapons and is prepared to make use of all its facilities to counter such threats.

We consider the use of such weapons as haram (religiously forbidden) and believe that it is everyone’s duty to make efforts to secure humanity against this great disaster.

Iran's Nukes: Can Tehran and the US Make A Deal?

Julien Mercille, writing in Asia Times Online, assessed whether a Washington-Tehran settlement on enriched uranium for Iran's medical research reactor could defuse tensions over the nuclear issue:

The latest chapter in the Iranian nuclear crisis revolves around a possible "nuclear fuel swap" through which Iran would send most of its low-enriched uranium stocks (LEU at 3.5%) abroad, possibly to Russia and France, which would further enrich it (making it LEU at 19.5%) and then turn it into fuel rods. The fuel rods would be sent to Iran, which could use them in the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) to produce much needed medical isotopes. The problem for Iran at the moment is that the TRR was last refueled in 1993 by Argentina, but it will soon run out of fuel (perhaps in a few months).

The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad’s Struggle

The swap deal could be a win-win for both Iran and the West. The West should be pleased by the removal of a good portion of enriched uranium from Iranian soil since this will reduce the possibility that Tehran could decide to use it to make nuclear weapons (nuclear weapons require highly enriched uranium, HEU at 90%). For Iran, fuel for its TRR would allow it to keep producing important isotopes used in the medical field and on which hundreds of thousands of Iranian cancer patients rely.



However, there has been some confusion among experts on whether Iran is currently producing its own medical isotopes, or is it only importing them from other countries? It is important to clarify this issue since the ways in which the latest crisis can be resolved depend in part on what exactly Iran is doing.

Flynt and Hillary Leverett, well known analysts of Iran, wrote recently that Iran was not producing any medical isotopes domestically and that it imported all of its requirements. So did Geoffrey Forden writing at Jeffrey Lewis' blog. But others say that Iran is now producing isotopes, although they don't give many details.

When asked about the issue an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) representative said the agency is not commenting ''at this time".

So what's the situation?

Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, was asked about Iran's activities in the field of medical isotopes production and his statements cross-checked by reviewing a March 2010 article by Iranian scientists from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran in the journal Nuclear Technology, published in the United States by the American Nuclear Society [1]. The two accounts appear to match, and are as follows.

Iran now produces two important medical isotopes with the TRR: technetium-99 and iodine-131. Since recent media stories have emphasized production of technetium-99, this is worthy of focus.

Technetium-99 is obtained from molybdenum-99 (Mo-99), perhaps the most important medical isotope in the world. Four countries - Canada, Belgium, South Africa and the Netherlands - meet 95% of the world's Mo-99 demand, using highly enriched uranium (HEU at 90%) to produce it.

Up until 2007, Iran bought its Mo-99 on the world market, but it has now developed a way to produce it domestically, through irradiating Mo-98 in the TRR. This leads to the production of Mo-99, which is then used to produce technetium-99. Apparently Iran does not currently import Mo-99.

As an aside, Iran is also producing other medical isotopes, notably isotopes of thallium and gallium, at its cyclotron facility near Tehran. This production process does not involve uranium, however, so it is not part of the current nuclear "crisis" with the West.

The problem today is that Iran's TRR is running out of fuel (which is made of LEU at 19.5%) and the production of isotopes is therefore at risk. The way to solve this problem is at the origin of the current crisis.

Several solutions are possible for Iran:
1. Buy the fuel for the TRR on the world market.
2. Receive fuel in exchange for most of its LEU stocks (this is the swap deal).
3. Enrich its own LEU to 19.5% (currently it is only enriching at 3.5%) and produce the TRR fuel domestically.
4. Stop producing its own isotopes and buy them on the world market (it would therefore not need fuel for the TRR to produce isotopes).

Any one of those solutions, if implemented, would provide Iran with medical isotopes and ensure its patients receive appropriate care, and therefore, solve the crisis. But they all have some problems, either real, or related to international politics:

1. Buying fuel on the market: Iran has actually said this would be its preferred solution, since it would allow it to keep its own LEU, rather than exchanging it for the fuel under a swap deal. As a member of the NPT (nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), Iran does have the right to purchase the fuel on the open market. However, as Scott Ritter has noted, "The United States and Europe have held any such sale hostage to Iran's agreeing to suspend its indigenous uranium enrichment program." Since Iran also has the right to enrich uranium according to the NPT, the obstacle here appears to lie in Western capitals, and this explains why they have preferred a swap deal in which Iran would give up its stocks of LEU.

2. Swap deal: From Iran's perspective, one problem here is that by sending most of its LEU stocks to Russia and France, Tehran runs the risk of never receiving the fuel, or, at least, this would give Russia and the West an important bargaining chip in future negotiations. One can easily conceive how the West, in possession of Iran's stocks, could lay out conditions for Iran to receive the fuel, such as asking for a full suspension of uranium in Iran.

There are historical reasons for Tehran to be worried: in the 1970s, under the US-allied Shah, Iran invested more than $1 billion in Eurodif, a consortium enriching uranium in France. This was supposed to give Iran the right to obtain part of the fuel produced by the consortium. However, the 1979 Iranian Revolution led France to renege, and Paris has since then refused to deliver Iran's share of the fuel or to reimburse it with interest. The fact that nuclear hardliner Nicolas Sarkozy is now in power only adds to Iran's fears that France could break the deal.

Partly because of such concerns, Tehran proposed that the swap should take place on Iranian soil and the LEU would leave Iran only when the fuel was delivered. As Siddharth Varadarajan put it, this would look something like this:

At a certain date, when French fabrication of the TRR fuel starts, the IAEA could take into its custody an equivalent amount of Iranian LEU and hold it, in escrow, inside Iran. When the TRR fuel is ready, the Iranian LEU could be loaded onto a plane, which would take off once the French fuel lands inside Iran. At the end of the day, the outcome for the US from a simultaneous swap would be the same as from a sequential swap: Iranian LEU stocks would have been depleted.

But US President Barack Obama, instead of jumping on the opportunity to close the deal, said he was disappointed with Iran, and called for sanctions - for a change.

3. Iran enriches LEU at 19.5%: In February 2010, Iran announced that it would enrich its own uranium up to 19.5% in order to make the fuel rods itself. One question mark here is whether Iran has the technical expertise for doing so. It could always reconfigure its centrifuges to produce 19.5% instead of 3.5% uranium, but Tehran has never before attempted to produce fuel rods out of enriched uranium.

Another potential problem is that Iran's enrichment process is plagued by the fact that its domestic uranium is contaminated with molybdenum and this makes enrichment more difficult (the molybdenum here is a separate issue from the medical isotopes of molybdenum). Further, the prospect of Iran enriching its uranium to an even higher level does not please the West.

4. Importing isotopes: Iran's announcement that it would attempt to reach the near 20% enrichment level led US officials to accuse Tehran of threatening the lives of its patients, since, if Iran was more reasonable, it would simply buy the isotopes on the world market and that would settle the crisis. For instance, Glyn Davies, the US ambassador to the IAEA, asked: "Why is Tehran gambling with the health and lives of 850,000 Iranian cancer patients in pursuit of ever more dangerous nuclear technology," a move he said was "callous and chilling".

Davies said that "to address the humanitarian needs of Iran's people, we are prepared to facilitate Iran's procurement of medical isotopes from third-country sources", maintaining that the American proposal was a "faster, cheaper, and more responsible alternative than enriching to 20%".

But one problem with importing isotopes is that world supply in the future may not be as reliable as it once was; and even if it remains reliable, Iran could still prefer to be self-sufficient and produce its own isotopes. Is the US right to say that it would be more responsible not to enrich uranium to 20%? One could certainly argue the case - but there is a stronger argument that it would be more responsible for states that have nuclear weapons to eliminate them, their obligation under the NPT, and convince Israel to eliminate its own nukes and join the NPT. That would certainly contribute to defusing the crisis.

The latest chapter in the Iranian nuclear dossier can be solved in more than one way. Although technicalities are important, we should nevertheless not forget that there would be no crisis if Western governments, and primarily the United States, had not created it in the first place.

Note

1. Ghannadi Maragheh et al., "Industrial-scale production of 99mTc generators for clinical use based on zirconium molybdate gel", Nuclear Technology Vol. 169, March 2010. See also Davarpanah et al., "Influence of drying conditions of zirconium molybdate gel on performance of 99mTc gel generator", Applied Radiation and Isotopes Vol. 67, 2009.