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Wednesday
Apr282010

The Latest from Iran (28 April): Making a Date

2130 GMT: Controlling the Teachers. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty summarises the pressure by Iranian authorities on teachers ahead of Teachers Day on 2 May.

This includes the arrest of two senior members of Iran's teachers union, Ali Akbar Baghani, and spokesman Mohammad Beheshti Langarudi, warnings to activists in several cities, including Tehran and Tabriz, not to take part in any protests, and fines and arrests for demonstrating. It is reported that several blogs and websites on teachers' issues have been blocked.

NEW Iran Document: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (26 April)
NEW Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Joke of the Day
Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)


Earlier this week, the Coordinating Council of the Teachers Trade Unions called for a hunger strike on Teachers' Week (May 2-8) to protest prison sentences and death penalties handed out to teachers. Four teachers are reported to have been jailed in recent months and at least one, Kurdish teacher Farzad Kamangar, is facing the death penalty.


2045 GMT: Corruption Watch. Conservative member of Parliament Ali Motahari has criticized Iran's judiciary for lack of independence and nepotism.

Motahari told the Iranian Students News Agency that, in corruption cases involving relatives of top officials, prosecutors are seeking permission from the officials themselves before even investigating.

1600 GMT: Oil Squeeze Posturing. In an interview with Khabar Online, Ali Vakili, the managing director of Iran's Pars Oil and Gas Company, has warned Royal Dutch Shell and Spain's Repsol that they must declare if they plan to pursue a project, agreed in 2007, to develop liquefied natural gas in the South Pars field.

Shell recently announced that it is suspending all involvement in the project.

Vakili insisted that Iran can develop the South Pars, having overcome financial obstacles, and that it has the necessary technology.

1530 GMT: We've posted a special separate entry: the English translation of Monday's discussion between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1245 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The lawyer for reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh has said that Tajzadeh has not yet reported to prison to begin his six-year sentence: “My client was admitted into a hospital in Tehran because of his disc problem (in his back)....During the past 2 days, my client was expected to introduce himself to the prison to continue serving his prison term; however, this has not happened....As soon as his physical condition improves, he will present himself to the authorities.”

0845 GMT: Corruption Watch. Mardomsalari newspaper frets that corruption has become a political issue and warns that "justice" should end it once and for all before foreign ennemies can take advantage of the situation.

0830 GMT: The Subsidy Battle. While there has been a general between Parliament and President over the subsidy cut and spending plans, the fight over implementation continues.

Maintaining that Iran's political, social and economic situation cannot cope with a shock, MP Ahmad Tavakoli has written Ahmadinejad with three propositions: 1) no across-the-board rise in prices, 2) provision of reliable data on familiy's income, and 3) gradual implementation of the plan. ()

0810 GMT: Culture Wars. Rah-e-Sabz claims there will be increased pressure from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance upon people, especially women, to "satisfy the Supreme Leader" on the eve of the election's anniversary on 12 June. The website alleges there are "serious plans" for reeducation from kindergarten to university.

As if to prove the point, Kayhan proclaims that "bad hijab" has to be fought everywhere, from schools to offices.

0755 GMT: Does the Regime Need Legitimacy? An interesting debate, as reported by Rah-e-Sabz: the Supreme Leader's deputy to the Revolutionary Guard denies it is necessary to rely on people's votes, while Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi insists that the Government does precisely that.

0750 GMT: (More) Persistence. Reformist MP Rasul Montajabnia declares that hardliners cannot become an alternative to reformers and replace them: "We are alive."

0745 GMT: Continuing the Labour Theme. Rah-e-Sabz, anticipating May Day, reports that workers' incomes have suffered in the Iranian New Year. There are widespread dismissals and threats to dismiss those who "do not work enough". Meanwhile, protests have increased over the lack of accepted unions and organisations.

Reformist member of Parliament Hajsheikh Alikhani has insisted the government "doesn't give a damn about workers' problems".

0740 GMT: Awards. Hassan Karimzadeh from the banned newspaper Etemade Melli has won 1st prize in the World Press Cartoon competition.

Mahdi Razavi has been given an award by an Italian panel for his No War photograph.

0735 GMT: Labour Watch. Iran Labor Report offers a full summary of preparation for a "Labor Week" around May Day: "The experience of last May Day’s brutal clampdown...has prompted most independent labor organizations to call off May Day gatherings. Instead, they are encouraging workers to celebrate the occasion in small numbers at factories and shop-floors.

0730 GMT: Mahmoud Visits New York? A blog on the Foreign Policy website claims, from "senior UN officials and diplomats", that President Ahmadinejad has requested a visa to attend a high-level conference next week at United Nations headquarters to review progress on the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

0725 GMT: Not Worried (Really). The "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan has asserted that any Iranian using Haystack, the software developed by Austin Heap to allow access to the Internet while avoiding surveillance, will be tracked down by Iranian authorities. Kayhan claimed that the Green Movement is advising followers not to use the software.

0720 GMT: Persisting. The two major Iranian reformist organizations, Islamic Iran Participation Front and Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, announced that they will continue their activities despite the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission for the dissolution of the parties. Both factions called for a public hearing in order to defend all their activities.

Leaders of the two organizations have written to the Commission maintaining that the dissolution lacks “legal justification.”

0420 GMT: Time will tell, but Tuesday appeared to be a day to mark in this lengthening crisis. The building series of statements from opposition figures, notably Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, culminating in the emergence that, yes, the two men had met on Monday and, yes, they had called for a demonstration on 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We'll wait a day or two for follow-up before attempting an analysis, but the obvious issue is whether --- after 2 1/2 months of relative passivity since the 22 Bahman (11 February) moment --- those challenging the regime can seize the initiative.

That follow-up has already begun. Mehdi Karroubi, in comments posted on Mihan News, has set out and defended his political approach, working with a cross-section of opposition groups: "I have talked to a lot of leftists. They did not become Muslim, and I didn't become a Communist." The message is not only for the regime, but for the Green Movement: secular and religious can co-exist in the demand for justice and rights in the Islamic Republic.

The Karroubi-Mousavi accompanies other signs of a renewed challenge to the Government. A Street Journalist has published an English translation of the joint resolution, with 15 demands, issued by a coalition of Iranian labour groups.

Elsewhere, reformist MP Jamshid Ansari has declared that, contrary to its claims, Parliament has not initiated an investigation into the attack on the dormitories of Tehran University on the night of 14/15 June.

In a debate with fellow MP Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghaddam at Tehran University, Ansari said, “You should not expect any report from the Parliament regarding this matter because no committee has been assigned to this task, neither by the Speaker nor by the Parliament.”

The raids by security forces killed several people and caused extensive damage, two days after the elections and hours before the mass march on 15 June.
Tuesday
Apr272010

The Latest from Iran (27 April): An Opposition Wave?

1840 GMT: The Uranium Squeeze. Time magazine notices a key point that we've mentioned for some time, "Iran's need to find fresh supplies of raw uranium supplies is increasingly urgent, according to some reports."

1830 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). Following the announcement by major French firm Total that it will pull out of Iran  if US sanctions proceed and the defiant stance of Iranian officials that absolutely nothing was wrong with energy supplies --- see 0540 and 1050 GMT), Italian company Eni says it is "working on handing over the operatorship of the Iranian Darquain oil field to local partners".

NEW Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “We Will Make The Nation Victorious”
Iran: The Mousavi 4-Point Message “Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"
Iran Exclusive: A Birthday Message to Detained Journalist Baghi from His Daughter
The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View


1700 GMT: Impact. We've known for days that opposition figures have been building up their challenge to the Government, but it's today, with the revelation of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on Monday, that you know the wave has hit.


For the first time in weeks, the non-Iranian mainstream media is taking notice of the opposition as more than a post-11 February blip. Reuters headlines, "Iran opposition urges vote anniversary rally"; CNN, who established an "Iran Desk" for the 22 Bahman (11 February) demonstration and soon let it lapse, follows suit: "Iranian opposition candidates call for renewed protests".

1125 GMT: No Further Comment Necessary. From Press TV: "Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi said that it is 'ridiculous' to place limitations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy by making 'unfounded' claims about human rights and freedom of women."

1050 GMT: All is Well  Update. Despite the accumulating news of a possible oil squeeze on Tehran with foreign producers withdrawing imports, the Government line is No Problem:
Iran says its strategic gasoline reserves have climbed by a billion liters, reiterating that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never materialize.

"Iran is not worried about (possible) gasoline sanctions," Deputy Oil Minister Noureddin Shahnazi-Zadeh told Iran's Mehr News Agency on Tuesday, adding that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never occur as there is no possibility of imposing such sanctions under current conditions.


1045 GMT: We have posted a short video from Monday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in which the two agreed to call a demonstration for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We have also posted a feature of how EA's list of detained Iranian journalists may have made its way into an Austrian newspaper's interview of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

0835 GMT: British Deportation. Last week, we reported on the British Government's plan to deport Bita Ghaedi, an Iranian woman who fled the country because of alleged abuse by her father and brother. Ghaedi was being returned to Tehran despite the likelihood that she would face punishment because of her participation in a rally protesting conflict over Iraq' s Camp Ashraf, home to many members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran.

Volcanic ash intervened to prevent Ghaedi's flight last week; however, her deportation has now been rescheduled for 5 May.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

0750 GMT: Labour Watch. A collection of Iranian unions have issued a joint 15-point statement for May Day, "strongly supporting the demands of teachers, nurses, and other working classes of society to end discrimination".

Member of Parliament Alireza Mahjoub has criticised the Government's failure to implement rises in pensions and the hidden discrimination against female workers.

0740 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has harshly criticised the "feminist and anti-family" views of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Motahari said that Hashemi's critique of polygamy was misguided, as the prohibition of polygamy would lead to prostitution.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amidst reports of the poor health of many detainees, reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian has insisted that a Majlis commission investigate the prisons.

0710 GMT: A Successful Protest. The sit-in of female detainees at Evin Prison has forced authorities to establish the separation of men and women in the facility.

0700 GMT: Corruption Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has repeated the claim that the Supreme Leader has insisted the corruption case against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi must be dropped because of "sensitive issues of nezam (the Iranian system)".

0640 GMT: We Persist. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a protest against the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission that the reformist party be suspended. The IIPF declares that it will continue its activities.

The protest is signed by Mohsen Safai-Farahani, who was recently handed a six-year prison sentence.

0630 GMT: More Challenges. From the conservative side, leading member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has said that the number and impudence of corrupt high-level officials have risen. He insisted that these officials must be confronted, no matter where and who they serve.

And reformist Ahmad Shirzad has asserted that the opposition movement has been bolstered by the addition of "dissatisfied hardliners".

0540 GMT: Monday was notable for the rush of opposition challenges to the Government. There was Mehdi Karroubi on a law-abiding, Constitution-promoting resistance that would bring victory to Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi's "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?",  and Zahra Rahnavard calling for the release of detained workers and teachers.

Of course, the important leap will be from statement to action. Yet it is striking this moment to compare the renewed calls for justice and freedom with the Government's rhetorical flourishes.

There was President Ahmadinejad again looking outside Iran with his promotion of the "satanic tools" of the United Nations and the US. There was Foreign Minister Mottaki, confronted with a list of more than 100 detained journalists and political analysts, replying brusquely, "Stick to the nuclear issue."

And there were apparent flights of desperation. As the chief executive of the French oil company Total was announcing that it would pull out of Iran if US sanctions proceeded, the deputy head of Iran's oil industry, Hojatollah Ghanimi-Fard, proclamed, "Iran has negotiated development projects with several foreign oil companies, including French concerns."

Ghanimi-Fard's optimism contrasted sharply with a statement from the Revolutionary Guard that it was prepared to replace Total and Royal Dutch Shell in oil and natural gas projects. Ali Vakili, the managing director of the Pars Oil and Gas Company, said a one-week ultimatum had been given to Shell and Spanish company Repsol, “We will not delay the development of South Pars phases waiting for foreign companies.”
Saturday
Apr102010

The Latest from Iran (10 April): Look Over There!

1500 GMT: Economy Watch. Human rights activists claim that most companies in Qazvin province will remain closed until end of the current Iranian month of Farvardin.

1445 GMT: Economy Watch. Although five major oil companies, included Shell, have recently suspended imports to Iran, here are the big players who ensure that Tehran doesn’t feel the squeeze quite as much: Petronas (Malaysia), Independent (Kuwait) and Total (France) are Iran’s largest suppliers.

NEW Iran: The Green Movement in Transition (Rafat)
Iran: How I Suddenly Disappeared on Press TV
Mousavi: “Can Repression & Brute Force Solve Iran’s Problems?”
The Latest from Iran: Dialogue or Conflict? (9 April)


1430 GMT: Remembering. Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader and a reformist, has visited the family of the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, killed during the Ashura demonstrations.



1415 GMT: Corruption Watch. The latest on the alleged corruption ring, including the Fatemi Avenue insurance fraud, inside the Government….

Rah-e-Sabz claims the Government will charge MP Elyas Naderan, who has made the public allegations, instead of the accused First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

Meanwhile, Khabar Online claims that Rahimi has handed out 18 oil projects to groups close to the Government. And reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian has asserted that about 100 fraudsters in Iran’s oil water, and sewage ministries and some insurance companies have been arrested recently and has demanded that their names be published.

1300 GMT: Economic Front. Beyond the specific quarrel over subsidies and spending, there is a wider political feud over economic approach amongst conservatives and principlists.

Ahmad Tavakoli, one of the harshest Parliamentary critics of Ahmadinejad, has denounced the “liberal” capitalist approach since the President took office in 2005. (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-53796.aspx) There is a similar attack in Alef on “Ahmadinejad and the Chicago boys”, a reference to the free-market, monetarist philosophy of University of Chicago economists such as Milton Friedman. The economic failures of the Iranian system are attributed to the US, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and other usual culprits. (http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/67173/)

A much better critique comes from Sadegh Zibakalam in Aftab, as he argues that “many of the Revolutionaries’ accusations about the US are unfounded” (http://www.iran-emrooz.net/index.php?/news1/21873/)

1200 GMT: Round-up….

A new Persian news website, DayPress, has been established.

Rah-e-Sabz is gloating, with more than a bit of anticipating, over the subsidy/spending fight: After Ahmadinejad’s threat to resign, are the Supreme Leader and Majlis going to bow down to him?

There may be a compromise in the works, however, according to Khabar Online.

0545 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Ahmad Rafat of "The Green Movement in Transition".

0535 GMT: Economy Watch. It is being reported that some workers in Iran's state telecommunications company have gone 12 months without wages.

0530 GMT: Detaining the Press. EA correspondents are currently working on an updated list of imprisoned journalists: one of them is photojournalist Babak Bordbar, detained on Ashura, for whom Peyke Iran has published an appeal.

0500 GMT: Not for the first time, we begin the day with the story of a great diversion. Iran's National Nuclear Day was the pretext for an all-day regime show displaying the nuclear issue, and thus Tehran's victory in the struggle against US pressure and duplicity, and hoping no one would notice other developments at home.

And on that stage, the effort was far from a bust. The showpiece announcement was not that dramatic --- an alleged third-generation uranium centrifuge, six times more effective than its first-generation predecssor. (I had expected the President to run with the declaration of "one or two" additional sites for the nuclear programme.) Ahmadinejad's unveiling of one of those centrifuges was more Science Fair than Science Breakthrough in appearance, but it did set a short-term agenda.

Press TV, for example, could herald the great achievement without coming close to practical questions, such as how many centrifuges? Where will they be located? When will they be on-line? Given that more than half of Natanz's existing second-generation centrifuges were not in use, on latest count, where is the assurance that third-generation successors will operate at a signficant capacity?

And, of course, Iranian state media chose the "appropriate" political framing. The steady beat of Iranian right and pride v. US-led pressure swept away other considerations. No one, for example, had to think about Ahmadinejad's continued use of the nuclear and military issues --- remember the mock missile at the regime's 22 Bahman (11 February) rally? --- as props for legitimacy.

And, of course, no one had to interrupt National Nuclear Day with other inconveniences such as the escalating Parliament-President battle, now to the point of Ahmadinejad's threatened resignation, the charges of corruption against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, and the signs of opposition revival through meetings and statements such as Thursday's Mir Hossein Mousavi statement and yesterday's declaration by Mohammad Khatami. (The last-minute cancellation of a guest on Press TV's News Analysis programme ensured that the standard Punch-and-Judy show --- one guest defending Iran's peaceful quest for nuclear advance vs. another gently suggesting why there might be "Western" concerns --- could proceed.)

Did the international media pull back the screen on the President's wizardry? Well. no. CNN ran with it as "Ahmadinejad: Iran has 'fully mastered' nuclear technology". (There is, however, an intriguing break from the pack in The New York Times, which runs a Saturday Profile on Mohsen Sazegara, the former creator of the Revolutionary Guard who is now a foe of the regime, and his YouTube broadcast.)
Wednesday
Apr072010

The Latest from Iran (7 April): Ahmadinejad's Support?

2120 GMT: How Big is Ahmadinejad's Support? We may have had a quiet day, but there is debate over whether the President has had even quieter ones recently. Here are purported photographs from his speech at Orumiyeh in northwestern Iran:

Latest Iran Video: Neda Replaces IRI Flag at Embassy in Netherlands
Iran Snap Analysis: Playtime’s Over
Iran Document: Mousavi Meeting with Reformists (5 April)
Iran Document: Rafsanjani Meets the Reformists (5 April)
The Latest from Iran (6 April): Challenge Resumes







In contrast, this is a photograph posted by Fars News of Ahmadinejad in the area today:



1800 GMT: A Very Quiet Day. We've been around, but there hasn't been much to report. One note, however, as we keep an eyes on events in Kyrgyzstan with a view to featuring tomorrow morning. Here's the reaction of the Iran Foreign Ministry, as reported by Press TV:
Iran says it supports the restoration of peace in Kyrgyzstan after anti-government protests left 40 people killed in the country.

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Wednesday that Iran "wants the immediate restoration of domestic stability" in Kyrgyzstan and the prevention of the spread of insecurity to this sensitive region of Central Asia.

At least 40 people have been killed and 400 others injured in anti-government unrest in Kyrgyzstan.

1210 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Morteza Alviri, the former Mayor of Tehran, has been given a five-year prison sentence, four of which have been suspended, because of participation in the march of 15 June.

Rah-e-Sabz expresses concern over the status of human rights activist Somayeh Ojaghloo, whom it claims has been in an unknown location for more than a month.

1145 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Oh-So-Calm Response "I'll Break Your Teeth". The Iranian President has responded in a most measured way to Washington's Nuclear Defense Posture Review, issued yesterday:
American materialist politicians, whenever they are beaten by logic, immediately put their finger on the trigger like cowboys. Mr. Obama, you are a newcomer (to politics). Wait until your sweat dries and get some experience. Be careful not to read just any paper put in front of you or repeat any statement recommended. (American officials) bigger than you, more bullying than you, couldn't do a damn thing, let alone you....

I hope these published comments are not true....He (Obama) has threatened with nuclear and chemical weapons those nations which do not submit to the greed of the United States.

Be careful. If you set step in Mr (George W) Bush's path, the nations' response would be the same tooth-breaking one as they gave Bush.

1130 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. According to industry sources, Russian supplier LUKOil is stopping shipments to Iran.

LUKOil, Russia's second-largest oil company, has been sending 250,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels of gasoline every other month. The last shipment was made between 10 and 12 March.

LUKOil's decision follows withdrawals by Royal Dutch Shell, Glencore, & Vitol.

0930 GMT: Detaining the Press. The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that at least 35 journalists were imprisoned in Iran as of 1 April. Another 18 journalists were free on temporary New Year releases and were expected to report back to prison.

CPJ adds, "Many of the incarcerated journalists are under immense physical and psychological pressure to 'confess' to crimes they have not committed, including crimes that could carry the death sentence....Many have also been denied family visits and access to legal counsel. Others have been held without charge for periods far exceeding legal limits."

0900 GMT: In the Universities. Peyke Iran claims 160 students from Sabzevar Teacher's University have been expelled without a formal hearing because of protests.

0845 GMT: Economy Watch. Revolutionary Road reports, from Human Rights Activists News Agency and Iranian Labor News Agency, that "due to lack of raw materials, Metal Factory I of Tehran[one of the largest metal factories in Iran will be shut down and the doors will be closed to all their workers".

0645 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Revolutionary Court in Mahallat in central Iran has handed down four prison sentences, three of them suspended, one of 18 months, for Green Movement supporters for "acting against national security". Another supporter remains in detention.

0635 GMT: The B-Word. Ahmad Shirzad of the Islamic Iran Participation Front has said that, as there is no legal or political space for effective involvement, the party should boycott the next elections.

0630 GMT: Must Try Harder. Reflecting on the Supreme Leader's Nowruz call on Iranians to double their efforts to build the country, Hamid Reza Taraghi, a key member of the "conservative" Motalefeh party,  has said capabilities are not being used due to mismanagement.

0600 GMT: One to Watch --- The Corruption Charges. We noted this story yesterday, but given its potential significance, it bears repeating. Member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has alleged that First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi is the head of a large "corruption network".

Talk of corruption and the Ahmadinejad Government is far from new, so what's distinctive here? Well, Naderan is not a reformist or member of the Green opposition: he is a leading conservative voice on Parliament's Economic Committee. And just to note: the report is in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

Rah-e-Sabz offers a summary of the alleged "Fatemi Street" network, insurance fraud, and Rahimi's claimed involvement.

0530 GMT: A quieter day on the reformist/opposition front on Tuesday. There were moments such as Mir Hossein Mousavi's meeting with Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, the senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front who is on temporary release from detention.



So this is more of a case of waiting and watching. The significance does not have to be in an immediate action or statement of next steps; rather it is that Monday's meetings took place --- for the first time in this crisis to our knowledge, Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, Rafsanjani, and reformist MPs all connecting in a series of discussions.