The Latest from Iran (27 April): An Opposition Wave?

1840 GMT: The Uranium Squeeze. Time magazine notices a key point that we've mentioned for some time, "Iran's need to find fresh supplies of raw uranium supplies is increasingly urgent, according to some reports."

1830 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). Following the announcement by major French firm Total that it will pull out of Iran  if US sanctions proceed and the defiant stance of Iranian officials that absolutely nothing was wrong with energy supplies --- see 0540 and 1050 GMT), Italian company Eni says it is "working on handing over the operatorship of the Iranian Darquain oil field to local partners".

NEW Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “We Will Make The Nation Victorious”
Iran: The Mousavi 4-Point Message “Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"
Iran Exclusive: A Birthday Message to Detained Journalist Baghi from His Daughter
The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View

1700 GMT: Impact. We've known for days that opposition figures have been building up their challenge to the Government, but it's today, with the revelation of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on Monday, that you know the wave has hit.


For the first time in weeks, the non-Iranian mainstream media is taking notice of the opposition as more than a post-11 February blip. Reuters headlines, "Iran opposition urges vote anniversary rally"; CNN, who established an "Iran Desk" for the 22 Bahman (11 February) demonstration and soon let it lapse, follows suit: "Iranian opposition candidates call for renewed protests".

1125 GMT: No Further Comment Necessary. From Press TV: "Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi said that it is 'ridiculous' to place limitations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy by making 'unfounded' claims about human rights and freedom of women."

1050 GMT: All is Well  Update. Despite the accumulating news of a possible oil squeeze on Tehran with foreign producers withdrawing imports, the Government line is No Problem:

Iran says its strategic gasoline reserves have climbed by a billion liters, reiterating that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never materialize.

"Iran is not worried about (possible) gasoline sanctions," Deputy Oil Minister Noureddin Shahnazi-Zadeh told Iran's Mehr News Agency on Tuesday, adding that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never occur as there is no possibility of imposing such sanctions under current conditions.

1045 GMT: We have posted a short video from Monday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in which the two agreed to call a demonstration for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We have also posted a feature of how EA's list of detained Iranian journalists may have made its way into an Austrian newspaper's interview of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

0835 GMT: British Deportation. Last week, we reported on the British Government's plan to deport Bita Ghaedi, an Iranian woman who fled the country because of alleged abuse by her father and brother. Ghaedi was being returned to Tehran despite the likelihood that she would face punishment because of her participation in a rally protesting conflict over Iraq' s Camp Ashraf, home to many members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran.

Volcanic ash intervened to prevent Ghaedi's flight last week; however, her deportation has now been rescheduled for 5 May.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

0750 GMT: Labour Watch. A collection of Iranian unions have issued a joint 15-point statement for May Day, "strongly supporting the demands of teachers, nurses, and other working classes of society to end discrimination".

Member of Parliament Alireza Mahjoub has criticised the Government's failure to implement rises in pensions and the hidden discrimination against female workers.

0740 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has harshly criticised the "feminist and anti-family" views of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Motahari said that Hashemi's critique of polygamy was misguided, as the prohibition of polygamy would lead to prostitution.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amidst reports of the poor health of many detainees, reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian has insisted that a Majlis commission investigate the prisons.

0710 GMT: A Successful Protest. The sit-in of female detainees at Evin Prison has forced authorities to establish the separation of men and women in the facility.

0700 GMT: Corruption Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has repeated the claim that the Supreme Leader has insisted the corruption case against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi must be dropped because of "sensitive issues of nezam (the Iranian system)".

0640 GMT: We Persist. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a protest against the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission that the reformist party be suspended. The IIPF declares that it will continue its activities.

The protest is signed by Mohsen Safai-Farahani, who was recently handed a six-year prison sentence.

0630 GMT: More Challenges. From the conservative side, leading member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has said that the number and impudence of corrupt high-level officials have risen. He insisted that these officials must be confronted, no matter where and who they serve.

And reformist Ahmad Shirzad has asserted that the opposition movement has been bolstered by the addition of "dissatisfied hardliners".

0540 GMT: Monday was notable for the rush of opposition challenges to the Government. There was Mehdi Karroubi on a law-abiding, Constitution-promoting resistance that would bring victory to Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi's "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?",  and Zahra Rahnavard calling for the release of detained workers and teachers.

Of course, the important leap will be from statement to action. Yet it is striking this moment to compare the renewed calls for justice and freedom with the Government's rhetorical flourishes.

There was President Ahmadinejad again looking outside Iran with his promotion of the "satanic tools" of the United Nations and the US. There was Foreign Minister Mottaki, confronted with a list of more than 100 detained journalists and political analysts, replying brusquely, "Stick to the nuclear issue."

And there were apparent flights of desperation. As the chief executive of the French oil company Total was announcing that it would pull out of Iran if US sanctions proceeded, the deputy head of Iran's oil industry, Hojatollah Ghanimi-Fard, proclamed, "Iran has negotiated development projects with several foreign oil companies, including French concerns."

Ghanimi-Fard's optimism contrasted sharply with a statement from the Revolutionary Guard that it was prepared to replace Total and Royal Dutch Shell in oil and natural gas projects. Ali Vakili, the managing director of the Pars Oil and Gas Company, said a one-week ultimatum had been given to Shell and Spanish company Repsol, “We will not delay the development of South Pars phases waiting for foreign companies.”

Britain's Three-Party Election: How the Strange Has Become Possible

Strange days indeed.

Volcanic ash. The most serious economic downturn in a generation, maybe two. A conflict in Afghanistan which is more a never-ending intervention than a war and an occupation of Iraq which has been left behind.

And now the Liberal Democrats, in the space of days, have emerged as contenders for a share of power after the elections on 6 May. Although shrewd onlookers picked up on signs even before Parliament was dissolved, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg's performance in last Thursday's debate with Conservative counterpart David Cameron and Prime Minister Gordon Brown has turned a three-party race from glimmer into shimmering prospect.

So as the candidates move to this Thursday's discussion on foreign policy: what happened and will it last?


1. CHARISMA AND THE LEADER

Rightly or wrongly, debates turn parties into an individual. On Thursday, Clegg was the one man who, primarily by speaking to the millions in the television audience as well as the dozens in the studio, had a significant impact.

This was more than a one-evening phenomenon, however. With the probable exception of 1992, this is the first poll since 1974 and the Ensuing Thatcher-Blair era without a dominant leadership figure. Brown, limited even before he took office by Labour in-fighting, has not been able to morph from effective Chancellor of the Exchequer into powerful PM. Cameron, in the eyes of many non-Conservatives (and I suspect a few inside the party) appears manufactured and lacking substance.

This did not guarantee Clegg's emergence as an equal amongst candidates --- I doubt that he was a household name at this time last week. Instead, the weaknesses of the two leading contenders and Britain's first-ever debate among would-be PMs gave him an opportunity.

2. DRIFT

Again with the probable exception of 1992, this is the first campaign in a generation without a trump card for one of the candidates. Thatcher had the Falklands Factor in 1983 and economic recovery in 1987. Blair had his "New Labour" in 1991, his own economic good times in 2001, and --- for enough, if not most, Britons --- his role as post-Iraq crisis PM in 2005.

Brown and his advisors may argue they avoided economic free-fall but that is not the same as a platform of resurgence. Afghanistan --- and if little else comes out of this Thursday's debate, this will by default rather than by admission --- offers no prospect of "victory".

Normally this lack of a Government banner issue should play into the hands of the main opposition. This year, however, the Conservatives have not defined their own big statement, either positive or negative (those with long memories will recall the effective 1979 slogan, "Labour Isn't Working").

On the economic front, there has no been grand alternative, either on the immediate crisis of lending and bank solvency or on the longer-term stimulus question. Indeed, the terrain of challenge --- who will cut or raise taxes? who will cut or raise social spending? --- is little different from any contest of the last 40 years.

And in foreign policy, there is no Iraq to define, for better or worse, a crisis candidate and party. Afghanistan offers no alternative --- escalation gives no benefit of imminent victory, withdrawal opens the door to accusations of defeat before extremism --- so will remain a rather anodyne talking point for the foreign policy debate.

3. RESPONSIBILITY AND RESPECT

It is not the case that the Liberal Democrats offer that Big Idea that could determine the outcome of the election. However, in the absence of either the Conservatives or Labour offering a political approach which offers either the answer for economic recovery or a resolution to Britain's interventions overseas, the Lib Dems may be able to capitalise by showing that they can at least be trusted with the oversight of the country's future.

The American comic Rodney Dangerfield had the famous catchphrase, "I Don't Get No Respect". That has been damagingly half-true for the Liberal Democrats. For decades, they have been a participant, often the leading one, in the running of local councils; however, at the national level, they have been relegated to the man shouting loudly from the Visitors' Gallery. Britain's system of Parliamentary election, based on first-past-the-post rather than proportional representation, has made the challenge more difficult.

It should not be forgotten, however, that the Liberal Democrats had their best result in more than 20 years in the 2005 elections, winning 52 seats in the 650-member Parliament. In a contest defined to a significant degree by Britain's involvement in the 2003 Iraq War and the ensuing occupation, the Liberal Democrats could define themselves as the only party to oppose the military action as both unnecessary and irresponsible.

While Iraq has faded as an issue because of the withdrawal of British forces from the country, the headline issue of recent months --- the members of Parliament castigated and even facing criminal charges for abuse of expenses --- also could play to that theme of Lib Dem responsibility. Whether because the party has fewer MPs than Labour or Conservative or whether its representatives are indeed more scrupulous, not a single Liberal Democrat has been amongst those named and shamed.

Nick Clegg's task has been to build upon the image of Liberal Democrat respectability at local level and to transform individual touchstones of responsibility into a voter decision that the Liberal Democrats are just as entitled as either of their two competitors to be trusted with day-to-day power in London. The prospect of that transformation was his big victory in last Thursday's debate.

WILL IT LAST?

If I could answer that question, I would be on-line at the bookmakers in the next few minutes, casting a large bet on Britain's first "hung Parliament", with no party winning a majority of seats, in almost 80 years.

The conventional wisdom is that voters considering a ballot for the Liberal Democrats will shy away at the last minute because of the Safety/Fear Factor. Better to entrust political fate with one of the Big Two who have been in power for generations rather than putting faith in an untested party. And, of course, both the Conservatives and Labour will be playing steadily upon that Factor in the next two weeks.

However, in this unusual political year, the Election Day aversion to a Lib Dem vote may not be as strong. The shakiness of both Labour and the Conservatives in defining their political approaches, combined with the lack of faith in Gordon Brown or David Cameron, has opened up a space which could be exploited by the Liberal Democrats.

So once more to the importance of last Thursday's debate. When Nick Clegg took the platform, he was the first Liberal Democrat to be treated as a political equal in the Prime Ministerial contest in post-1945 Britain. When he came off it, he was --- at least for the next seven days --- head and shoulders above his rivals.

Forecasting whether the Liberal Democrats can sustain political parity all the way to 6 May is even more difficult than predicting if this volcanic ash will clear enough for my return to the UK. For now, however, let it be said: the strange has become quite possible.