Monday
Apr192010
The Latest from Iran (19 April): Stay Firm, Spread the Word
Monday, April 19, 2010 at 14:00 
2045 GMT: Who's "Mohareb"? Ayatollah Dastgheib has repeated his denunciation of the Government's labelling of dissenters as "mohareb" (warriors against God), a charge which carries the death penalty: “The pious would never make baseless accusations.”Dastgheib also implied that the real "mohareb" are those who have used violence against protesters: “Mohareb is a person who violates people’s right by pulling a gun, a knife or a weapon on them.”
1945 GMT: We've posted the English text of the speech Mohammad Khatami would have given at this week's disarmament conference in Hiroshima, Japan. Khatami was pressured by Iranian authorities not to leave the country.
NEW Iran Document: The Speech Khatami Would Have Given at Japan Disarmament Conference
NEW Iran Document: “Our Sons’ And Daughters’ Agony” (Sahabi)
Iran Document: The Supreme Leader on Nuclear Weapons (17 April)
Iran Analysis: And The Nuclear Sideshow Goes On…And On…And On
The Latest from Iran (18 April): Strike A Pose
1900 GMT: Nuke Talk. Back from extended break to find today's Iran Government uranium talking points in my Inbox.
It's Kazem Jalali of Parliament's National Security Commission putting out the line that the UN-hosted review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), held every five years, will follow up Iran's good work this weekend with its disarmament summit.
Jalali said of the May gathering, "Two fronts will battle out in New York: a US-led one will seek to limit non-nuclear states which are hoping to develop peaceful nuclear technology; the second front will consist of countries with no nuclear bombs that seek global nuclear disarmament."
1255 GMT: No More "Legal" Reformists? Iranian state media are repeating the news, which we reported a few days ago, that Iran's major reformist political parties, the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, have been banned.
The leading reformist newspaper Bahar, which only recently resumed publication, has again been suspended by Iranian authorities.
An EA correspondent notes concisely, "Seems like it's a case of repression, and more repression, considering the definitive sentences slapped on [reformist politicians] Mostafa Tajzadeh and Mohsen Mirdamadi."
1245 GMT: On the theme of "Stay Firm", we've posted a letter from veteran Iran politician Ezzatollah Sahabi, "Our Sons' and Daughters' Agony".
1050 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist and human rights activist Davood Khodakarami has been arrested in Zanjan, while journalist Rahim Gholami was imprisoned in Ardebil last week.
According to EA colleagues who are maintaining a list of those imprisoned or on heavy bail but under the threat of re-arrest, the total is now 78 journalists. We hope to post the updated list soon.
1045 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. So did Hashemi Rafsanjani meet with the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to discuss the possible criminal prosecution of Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi?
The judiciary have strongly denied the claim, which Khabar Online says is being spread by Elyas Naderan, the "conservative" MP who is a sharp critic of the Ahmadinejad Government.
At the same time, pro-Ahmadinejad legislator Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash has insisted that Mehdi Hashemi and Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, must be prosecuted for "acting against the basis" of the Iranian system.
1040 GMT: Staying Firm. Seyed Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader, has said that, despite Government pressures and restrictions, the demands of the Iranian people are only increasing.
1030 GMT: Nuclear Shocker --- Iran Proclaims, Media Jumps. Today's ritual declaration in state media of Tehran's nuclear advance comes from Ahmadinejad advisor Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi: "The president has confirmed the designated location of a new nuclear site and on his order the building process has begun."
My reaction is that the 25th or 35th or 235th time the same announcement of new sites --- whether it is 1, 10, or 20 --- is made, it ceases to become news and moves into the category of chanting. Reuters, however, is undeterred from announcing for the 25th or 35th or 235th time, "[This is] part of a big expansion of its nuclear program which has contributed to fears in the West it aims to build a bomb."
1025 GMT: Mystery Aide Contest. Khabar Online reports that a group of clergy who serve in the Parliament will meet the Supreme Leader on Monday to discuss Government-Parliament issues, raising criticism of a close ally of Ahmadinejad for "anti-cultural" moves.
So to whom is Khabar Online, the site linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, referring?
1020 GMT: Subsidy Battle. The Government may have won an apparent victory with Parliamentary concessions allowing greater spending from subsidy cuts, but the criticism continues.
Khabar Online features the commentary of Professor Hassan Sobhani, who maintains that the Ahmadinejad subsidy cuts will not raise people's purchasing power but reduce it.
1000 GMT: Following Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to reformist students calling for all in opposition to be "new media" --- for every blog closed, let 100 spring up --- Mehdi Karroubi, in a meeting with activists and families of political prisoners, has declared:
Has our government become so desperate and weak that even the funeral ceremonies of people, either political or non-political, face problems?....Why are you trying to make our strong and powerful system seem weak in the minds of nations and governments? ....Unfortunately it seems like instead of trying to attract most and repulse least, we are trying to achieve the most repulsion and the least attraction.
The government prefer their own views and methods of ruling to the strict rulings of Islam. People have become more cautious and their movement is growing. Stay firm on your legitimate and legal demands and insist on them.
tagged Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, Elyas Naderan, Hassan Sobhani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Khabar Online, Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Seyed Hadi Khamenei in Middle East & Iran
Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib, Elyas Naderan, Hassan Sobhani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Khabar Online, Mahmoud Ahmadi Bighash, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Seyed Hadi Khamenei in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (15)
RE 10.30 Nuclear Shocker
And why is Tehran is so bent on making endless announcements about its nuclear developments, new sites, super-duper centrifuges and publicly revealing its increasingly amazing nuclear capabilities?
This article I posted in another thread yesterday, and which may not have gotten much exposure, provides (in addition to its interesting examination of the effectivenes of sanctions) an answer in the last 3 paragraphs:
Will sanctions against Iran really serve the West’s interests?
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1163844.html
@ 1000 GMT: Mousavi's statement on "new media"
Unfortunately 100 new blogs are needed, because the daily "Bahar" was shut down today for usual reasons (defamation bla bla): http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=118452
@ 1045 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch
ILNA reports that NAJA commander Ahmadi Moghaddam has denied having received a legal detention order for Mehdi Hashemi. He said all actions to arrest an Iranian abroad have to be effected by Interpol, not NAJA: http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=118425
Very mysterious, all that...
[...] 19. April 2010 von Julia Veröffentlicht bei haveeru online am 19. April 2010 Quelle (Englisch): http://www.haveeru.com.mv/english/details/30132/Iran_suspends_two_leading_reformist_parties:_report__ Referenziert von Enduring America [...]
Forgive me if my question is outdated as I've been distracted from my news monitoring, but what can be read from the recent submission by parliment to allow the AN adminstrations right to more subsiday savings? Can one see the influence of the SL? Has this shown his preference between AN and Larijani? As always interested in other readers thoughts.
Regards,
Professor Juan Cole, not a friend of the IRI but not a deranged Greenie fan either, has a very perceptive article about the sanctions campaign. He he I guess he must be on the payroll too.
http://www.juancole.com/
Why Economic Sanctions on Iran will Fail
Posted on April 19, 2010 by Juan Cole
Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Adm. Mike Mullen said at Columbia U. that a military strike on Iran over its nuclear enrichment activities would be his ‘last option.’ He makes an excellent point, too often overlooked. In some instances the price of doing something is just about as high as the price of doing nothing. A US strike on Iran would risk throwing Iraq and Afghanistan into chao, with our troops in the midst of it.
The Obama administration is now moving tighten economic sanctions on Iran, as an alternative to a more direct approach. These measures include pressuring countries and firms not to buy Iranian petroleum and gas; pressuring them not to sell gasoline to Iran; and attempting to make it difficult for Iranian banks to interface with the world economic system.
While these measures could impose costs on Iran, these costs can easily be borne by the country, and more especially by the regime.
Moreover, it is unclear that Obama can even swing further sanctions on Iranian petroleum and gas. Such harsh measures are opposed by Brazil, Russia, India and China, the so-called BRIC bloc of nations that are emerging diplomatic and economic players outside the US-dominated G7 nations. At the BRIC summit in Brazil last week, a consensus emerged against strong new sanctions on Iran. Brazil is on the UN Security Council at the moment, and in May Lebanon will assume the rotating chair of that body. Given that Turkey also currently has a seat and is strongly opposed to new Iran sanctions, it may be difficult for Obama to get a significant new resolution.
Financial sanctions are not all that they are cracked up to be. Iran Oil & Gas reports that from March ‘09 to March ‘10, Iran swapped 450,000 tons of petroleum products. Some 90% of the swaps were with nations of the former Soviet Union (CIS), and 10% were with Iraq. Likely we are talking about Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. This item is an example of how Iran can import refined gasoline (it has a temporary shortage of refineries) without needing to go through the international banking system. Even if some sort of official ban on trading with Iran could be arranged by the US with these CIS countries and Iraq, private traders and corrupt government officials would simply step into the resulting black market and make a pile. Smuggling oil products out of Iraq on trucks was a specialty of Jordan and Turkey in the 1990s, and that sort of black market would operate quite efficiently were Iran to be put under the sort of sanctions imposed on Saddam Hussein.
Few commodities are more easily transported and more fungible (easily exchanged for other goods or for cash) than gasoline, and the plan for a gasoline embargo on Iran (popular in Congress) is a pipe dream.
But we are hardly in a stage of black marketeering. Rather, direct deals are being done by major players, despite the withdrawal of some players, such as Lukoil, from exporting gasoline to Iran. Chinaoil just directly sold Iran 600,000 barrels of gasoline, and Sinopec, another Chinese oil giant, is preparing to resume direct gasoline sales to Iran. Soft gasoline demand in Asia because of the global economic downturn has left petroleum companies with high inventories that they are eager to offload anywhere they can, and Iran as a destination suits them fine.
Reuters reports, “As long as there is money to be made, and economic benefits to be taken advantage off, Iran will always find ready sellers of gasoline from the international market,” a trader said. “The politicians don’t understand markets…sanctions are cosmetic.”
And if direct sales became difficult, indirect ones would be substituted. And if that became difficult, smugglers would step in. A lot of Iraqis would get rich. And while paying extra to smuggle things in would hurt ordinary Iranians, the regime would use its oil profits to cushion the elites and keep them happy. (That cushioning is why very severe sanctions on Iraq never had a chance of shaking the Baathist regime).
The man said it all: ’sanctions’ are purely cosmetic, designed to make it look as though US politicians had taken some dramatic and effective step. It is odd that the politicians in Washington, who are always loudly proclaiming their belief in the market, think its iron laws can be suspended by a simple vote on their parts.
And another development taken as a bellwether of increasingly effective sanctions turns out to have been a mirage. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak clarified remarks he made last Thursday about creeping sanctions on Iran. He was misunderstood to have said that Petronas, the Malaysian petroleum company had suspended gasoline sales to Iran, but he never said any such thing and it never happened. He referred to a cancelled third-party spot oil deal that collapsed for purely economic reasons.
Moreover, Iran’s need to import gasoline is probably temporary. It has the wherewithal to build new refineries, and is doing so. Germany’s ABB Lummus has a a $512 million deal with the National Iranian Oil Company and a consortium in Iran to raise gasoline production at the Bandar Abbas refinery to about 3.5 million gallons a day from the present 1.3 million gallons.
In fact, there are ten such projects to expand existing refineries, which could allow Iran to nearly double its production of gasoline by 2012. In addition, Iran is investing nearly $40 billion in building 7 new refineries. So even a successful squeeze on Iran’s gasoline imports, if it could be implemented right away, would only have much effect for 2 years. But such a squeeze is unlikely to be successfully implemented in the first place.
Nor is Iran lacking for customers. A Swiss company just signed a deal worth $13 billion to import Iranian natural gas over the next 25 years. As for financial sanctions, so far Iran is evading them through banking partners in the United Arab Emirates, and Iran and Venezuela have two joint banks. These measures provide Iran with a back door, allowing it to mitigate the effects of financial sanctions.
Very few sanctions regimes have actually produced regime change or altered regime behavior. The US could not even accomplish this goal with regard to a small island 90 miles off its shores, Cuba. That an oil giant half way around the world with a population of 70 million that is as big as Spain, France and Germany can be effectively bludgeoned with sanctions is not very likely.
The US needs to engage in comprehensive security talks with Iran, in hopes of striking a grand bargain. Because as Admiral Mullen rightly says, there are no good military options here.
Sedighi makes drudge by declaring that women who wear revealing clothing cause earthquakes!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1267262/Iranian-cleric-Women-wear-revealing-clothing-cause-earthquakes.html
I particularly like the part where he says - "A divine authority told me to tell the people to make a general repentance. Why? Because calamities threaten us" - If Kazem only knew how true that advice is.
Catherine,
The Mohareb title is a clear example of the political manifestation of Islam. Calling someone this is the worst thing because they are labeling them an apostate. Apostates are killed in Iran! Ironically it's a false claim because it is the regime who has violated the Sharia not the protestors. Sadly this is a huge issue within Islam using Mohareb/apostate lables as political tools of fear to coerce the population the rulers want. Salafists all over the globe use this tactic to silent those who do not believe in their fanatical goals.
Thx
Bill
RE Bill's post 7,
Is "Mohareb" an exclusively Iranian charge? Do other countries where apostasy is a penalty of some sort (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apostasy_in_Islam) also use this charge to punish a/o intimidate people for their political activities/beliefs?
excellent piece from samuel. Leaving rhetorics aside and if the US politicians could decouple their myopic foreign policy from the extreme zionist/wahabi/neocon/christian fundamentalist positions then there is a possibility of a grand bargain which will actually be of greater benefit to long term strategic interests of the US in the region. For everyone, from King Abdullah at one end of the political spectrum to Ahmedinejad at the other end knows that Israel cannot simply go on behaving and getting away with murder as it has done for a very long time. Its occupation has to come to an end and at the minimum it will have to give up all the territories outlined in the Clinton plan which more or less resembles the Arab league plan.
As for internal Iranian politics, this is best left to them to sort out. They managed to get rid of one US supported dictator and they are more than capable of ridding themselves of their current government given time but what some of the secular fanatics hope of an Iran without Islam is unlikely to happen anytime this century. Iran and Iranians are far too steeped in the Islamic faith and their contribution to Islamic civilisation and learning far outstrips that of any other Muslim nation, including Arabs, for them now to enmasse exit Islam. What is more likely to happen is through ijtehad that a fresh Islamic thinking and vision is possible. But like iron in a foundry which needs to be welded into gleaming steel, this is necessarily going to be a painful process. There seems no other way.
#9
"Iranians are far too steeped in the Islamic faith and their contribution to Islamic civilisation and learning"
Mehdi Karroubi slams government "extremists"
Souce: Radio Zamaneh
Iranian opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi maintained that contrary to the claims of the “extremists” in the Islamic Republic, the establishment is by no means in control of the post-election crisis. He maintained that people are still intent on their rightful demands but are now continuing their protests with greater "alertness" in the face of government pressures and threats.
Speaking to a group of political and student activists, the opposition leader cited the warm and welcoming attitude of people toward newly released political prisoners in the streets, neighbourhoods and workplaces as proof of the continuity of the protests.
He maintained that “extremists” are so intent on controlling the society that they have gone beyond mere control of the living, they want to also control the dead.”
Mehdi Karroubi cited examples of how funeral permits were denied for some members of the clergy and memorial services were cancelled through government interference.
He maintained that such reactions merely reveal the weakness of the establishment that even a simple funeral is cause for its alarm.
"What is more likely to happen is through ijtehad that a fresh Islamic thinking and vision is possible."
O yeah! A fresh Islamic thinking about how to justify paedophilia, rape in prisons, and shooting unarmed people on Ashura.
I am convinced that this unholy republic will find some appropriate hadith for this too. Otherwise it's time for some new fatwas. Hail to thee Islamic Rapepublic!
Catherine,
From a state perspective I think Iran is the only one to use it as widely as they do. Having said that several states do have clear death penalties for apostasy and blasphemy. While it is not overtly used a political club it does innoculate a state of fear being branded as an apostate to keep them in line. At the ground level it is used quite a bit more as a political tool to intimidate--religious minorities are a common target of this. The story usually goes Imam says Christian desecrated a Quran, mob ensuses, Christians burned or shot, and police igonore the event(this happens in Pakistan and Egypt quite a lot.) In summary the very practice of killing an apostate, while not overtly used by all states politically, is in itself a political act at the personal level. It is using the fear of death if you should decide to not believe what is sanctioned by society and its laws( Islam)!
Thx
Bill
Thanks, Bill. That's what I thought, too. I'm also very aware of the "license to kill" mentality given to mobs because their government persecutes and prosecutes (not necessarily with the death penalty) apostates or followers of other religions.
The funny thing is, and someone who knows Iran better than I do please correct me if I'm wrong, even though Iran is the state that most widely condemns apostates to death, and is perhaps the only Islamic country that has the charge of Mohareb in its penal code, I don't get the impression that the typical mob story Bill describes in post 17 actually happens very often in Iran.
Samuel,
Juan Cole isn't the only one. Obama himself said almost 2 weeks ago, "Iran sanctions offer no guarantees"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100409/ts_nm/us_obama_iran_sanctions_6
And the US Senate doesn't seem to put much creedence in the effectiveness of UN sanctions either, although their conclusions about how to end any potential Iranian nuclear weapon programme probably differ from Cole's :-)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8634204.stm
Senior Fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations Mike Brenner adds his two cents: "Sanctions, of any type or scope, will not suffice to compel the Iranians to do something that contravenes their strategic categorical imperative. That should be abundantly clear. Nor will they enter into an enriched uranium deal, however ingeniously conceived, unless it is integrated into a comprehensive security bargain for the Gulf and the wider Middle East. We never have offered to do so. For all of Obama's talk about extended hands, the United States' consistent position is to avoid direct linkage between the specific technical issues of the Iranian nuclear program and broad strategic concerns. "
More: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-brenner/gates-on-iran-whos-crying_b_543636.html
Catherine,
Your 100% correct because the mob mentality is mostly reserved for the Sunnis. The fact the Shias don't do it as much is for three reasons 1) they themselves are often the victims 2) there are a lot less Shias. As for Iran the populace is much more educated, better off, and thus not prone to going on a violent binge--simply put Iran is more civil.
Thx
Bill