The Latest from Iran (16 April): Grounding the Opposition

1910 GMT: Khatami Grounded but Still Speaks. Former President Mohammad Khatami may have been halted from leaving Iran, but he has not been silenced. Khatami has spoken out against government pressure on newly released Iranian political prisoners “to denounce their connections with certain movements and public figures”.

Khatami claimed that the newly released prisoners “are being forced to make public confessions against their actual opinions and beliefs and they have been told that their limited freedom will be taken away from them if they do not do so".

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A court of appeal has confirmed a six-year prison sentence for journalist Masoud Lavasani as well as a ten-year ban on any journalism. Lavasani was originally sentenced to eight years after his detention in late September.

Mohammad Reza Lotfi Yazdi, a Mashhad student activist, has been released from Evin Prison after a six-week detention. Ali Sepandar and Behzad Parvin, two members of the Central Council of the Islamic Association at Birjand University, have also been freed.

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The Latest from Iran (15 April): Accepting Authority?

1825 GMT: The Labour Front. Back from an extended break to find a useful summary by Iran Labor Report of developments, including economic downturns, protests over unpaid wages, and strikes.


1145 GMT: The Banning of the Reformists? We are watching this story carefully to see if it develops into the effective suspension of "legal" political activity by reformists in Iran:

The members of Article 10 Commission of Iran which monitors the activities of political parties in the country held a session yesterday asking the Judiciary to ban two reformist parties, Islamic Iran Participation Front (Party) and Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution Organization.

They also submitted a letter to Tehran's Public Prosecutor's Office and requested for issuing a decree on the dissolution of both pro-reform parties. The decision was made through observing their background and actions taken by them.

1155 GMT: Recognising Activism and New Media. Iranian blogger, journalist, and women’s rights activist Jila Bani Yaghoub has been awarded the Reporters Without Borders Freedom of Expression prize for her blog “We are Journalists” at the 6th international “Best of the Blogs” event in Berlin.

Bani Yaghoub and her husband Bahman Ahmadi Amoui were detained last year during the post-election crisis. After her release, she wrote a moving open letter to her still-detained spouse and "Mr Interrogator".

1110 GMT: A Discussion. Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, has met Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i to consider "the problems of the country".

1055 GMT: Not Forgetting. Golnaz Esfandiari summarises the attempts by Iranian websites and bloggers to ensure that the cases and situations of "lesser-known" political prisoners are not forgotten.

1045 GMT: Corruption Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims that the Supreme Leader has intervened to order a halt to the corruption investigation of First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi. Several high-profile members of Parliament have led the call for the inquiry against Rahimi, connected with the "Fatemi Avenue" insurance fraud.

1040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Green Voice of Freedom claims it has a letter from a group of detainees in Evin Prison, announcing their plan to fast from 21 April until the anniversary of the election on 12 June. They make five demands: annulment of post-election sentences for political prisoners; release of all detainees on bail until trials are held; respect of Article 168 of the Constitution regarding political and press offences; investigation into illegal and unjust judicial procedures and interrogations at all levels; improving recreation, health and hygiene in all prisons and detention centres in the country.

The letter to the “Great Iranian Nation” states:

You know better than anyone, that thousands of your children who supported reformist candidates during the June 2009 presidential election and [identified with] the Green Movement were arrested at their workplaces or homes --- even in the middle of the night --- and taken to known and unknown detention centres and prisons on baseless grounds and accusations that mostly lacked (and still lack) legal justification. [Their imprisonment] clearly went against the constitution and the country’s current laws and citizen rights.

1035 GMT: The Court in Evin Prison. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has called for the closure of a recently-established “special court” at Evin Prison.

Attorneys for detainees say their work has become "impossible” with the newly established court. One of them, Nasrin Sotoudeh, summarises:

The judges are residing in a space that is under the strict control of the Ministry of Intelligence and during preliminary investigations, which are the most difficult time during a suspect’s prison term, case judges only receive information from intelligence officers, and neither the suspect’s lawyer nor his or her family can provide any information to the judges.

Another defense attorney, Farideh Gheyrat, said she is highly concerned about the inaccessibility of her clients’ files and claims that now even extracting the old “simple and incomplete” pieces of information about cases has become impossible.

1030 GMT: Labour Watch. A Street Journalist provides an English summary of a Deutsche Welle story, reported in EA earlier this week, of workers' protests and strikes in Khuzestan in southwest Iran.

1020 GMT: Economy Watch. As a sign of Iran's economic troubles, Rah-e-Sabz reports a sharp decline in employment in the town Asalouyeh in the south of the country. State companies have not paid wages for several months, and the Government owes owes 40 billion toman (more than $40 million) to private companies, for example in the electricity sector.

The website also reports that Iran's social security organisation is in deep trouble with a large deficit building from 2007. It claims that the head of the organisation has gone to Qom to seek help from clerics.

1015 GMT: A Subsidy Compromise? Khabar Online reports that the Parliament and Government have reached an agreement allowing President Ahmadinejad to take in and control more revenue from subsidy cuts.

Parliament had set the extra revenue at $20 million, half of the President's demand, but according to Khabar, "this week the Parliament gave a free hand to the government in arranging a schedule for implementing the plan, to define new prices for subsidized goods and above all adding tax incomes to the 200 trillion rials ($20 billion) budget".

EA's sharp readers will already note the double-edged sword for the Government if this compromise has been struck: it may indeed take in more money but only by raising prices --- through the subsidy reductions --- further on basic provisions such as food and energy.

1000 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Ayatollah Javadi Amoli has taken a swipe at the Government with the declaration that society must be governed with respect and fed so it can stand on its own feet. It is not difficult to govern with mercy.

Ayatollah Jafar Sobhani has added that the majority must be kept satisfied. If the Iranian people have reasonable demands, they should be addressed.

0950 GMT: And Take This, Opposition. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati has issued a forceful denunciation of those challenging the regime. He claimed that they wanted to weaken the system of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) after the Ahmadinejad victory last night. The culprits included monarchists, Baha'i, reformist parties such as Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution and Islamic Iran Participation Front, National Front, communists, and secularists. (An EA reader wonders, "Is there anyone left who is not an opponent?")

0930 GMT: We return from extended break to follow up on yesterday's report that former President Mohammad Khatami was planning to attend a global disarmament conference in Japan next week.

EA readers quickly wrote us that the Iranian authorities intervened to prevent the journey. Parleman News wrote that Khatami, who was supposed to leave the country on Wednesday night, was not blocked at the airport or had his passport has not been withdrawn, but he succumbed to pressure and cancelled the trip at his own initiative.

Khatami remains a major international figure for his approach of "global dialogue", which he promoted in the late 1990s as an alternative to the notion of a clash of civilizations. More immediately, his presence in Japan would have deflected from Iran's own attempts to take the nuclear high ground with its own conference on nuclear disarmament, scheduled for Saturday and Saturday.

The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad's Struggle

1720 GMT: Ahmadinjead Brings Culture to the World; Students Aren't Sure. The President's adivsor, Somreh Hashemin, has told university students that "world discourse" has changed because of Ahmadinejad's statements --- therefore it now has culture, science, and ethics.

Students at Allameh Tabatabei University may not have been convinced, however, as both reports and video indicate:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKuNhRZsJQA[/youtube]

Iran’s Nukes: Can Tehran and the US Make A Deal?
The Latest from Iran (14 April): Ahmadinejad’s Struggle

1715 GMT: Out of Jail and On-Line. Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, jailed for several months after the election and selected for a high-profile "confession" in August, has resumed blogging.


1710 GMT: Economy Watch. MP Alireza Mahjoub has predicted a continuation of the poor situation, with 40% inflation, poverty, and economic "suffocation".

1700 GMT: Absence or Protest? Khabar Online reports that one-third of MPs were missing from the Majlis today.

1555 GMT: The Corruption Case. MP Elyas Naderan, the leading Parliamentary critic of First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, has sarcastically thanked the Government for accusing him of making false charges. Naderan assured that he will continue to press the corruption case.

1545 GMT: The Row Over the 15 June Demonstration. Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province, may have denied his reported statement that the large 15 June protests were authorised. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, however, is persisting with the claim. The website documents Tamaddon's apparent approval of 15 June rally.

1525 GMT: The "Other" Khamenei. Continuing his show of support for reformist leaders, Seyed Hadi Khamenei, the brother of the Supreme Leader, has visited Mohsen Mirdamadi, the chairman of the Islamic Iran Participation Front. Mirdamadi is on temporary release from his prison sentence.

1510 GMT: But China Eases the Pressure? And while there is the ongoing public show over Beijing's will-it-won't-it join international sanctions, this news --- coming as other oil firms stop imports to Iran --- is striking:

State-run Chinaoil has sold two gasoline cargoes for April delivery to Iran, industry sources said on Wednesday, stepping into a void left by fuel suppliers halting shipments under threat of U.S. sanctions....

While others back out, Chinaoil has sold a total of about 600,000 barrels worth around $55 million to the Islamic Republic.

The cargoes were Chinaoil’s first direct sales to Iran since at least January 2009, according to Reuters data. Chinese firms have previously sold through intermediaries, traders said.

1445 GMT: Is Third-Party Enrichment Back On? Reading President Ahmadinejad's bluster in recent days, we asked (1040 GMT), "Is the President actually holding the door open for another push at a deal on uranium enrichment?"

Well, have a look at Iranian state media's presentation of the latest words from the head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, in an interview with a Russian newspaper:

The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) says Tehran would accept a nuclear fuel swap, should the West manage to win back its trust.

The US-proposed UN-backed deal requires Iran to send most of its low-enriched uranium abroad for further processing and conversion into fuel rods for Tehran's research reactor....

Salehi said that Iran had agreed to the IAEA-backed proposal [for third once it was proffered but needed guarantees from the West that it would deliver the fuel in a timely manner — a demand shrugged off by the West.

"We did not refuse. We agreed at once and we agree now. The only problem is guarantees. They suggested that we hand over a thousand pounds of our 3.5% low-enriched uranium. And wait until the entire amount of uranium has been enriched to a level of 20%," he said. 'Suppose we have given all our uranium. But where is the assurance [that we receive the fuel in a timely manner]?"

1430 GMT: The German Squeeze. The German carmaker Daimler has announced that it will
almost entirely cease business in Iran.

Daimler's chief executive Dieter Zetsche  told shareholders, The policies of the current Iranian leadership have compelled us to put our business relationship with that country on a new footing. In general, our business activities with Iran will now be limited to meeting our existing contractual obligations and continuing our cooperation with established customers."

Daimler will relinquish its 30 percent stake in Iranian Diesel Engine
Manufacturing, a subsidiary of Iranian Khodro Diesel.

The move is further testimony that behind the public rhetoric of leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, for state-based sanctions on Iran, the real pressure is coming from the disinvestment of private companies. Daimler's move following the pullout from Iran of two of Germany's largest insurance companies.

1110 GMT: And, cutting through the Presidential rhetoric and posturing, we've posted an analysis by Julien Mercille on the possibility of a US-Iran deal on enriched uranium for Tehran's medical research reactor.

1040 GMT: Blowing Smoke. How many dramatic foreign policy pronouncements do we get to enjoy from President Ahmadinejad this week?

Following his assessment of foreign leaders as "retarded" and his letter to the United Nations implying that the US Government set up 9-11 for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the President has said that "[US President Barack] Obama cannot do anything in Palestine, they won't let him do anything and he has no chance" and there is no possibility of success in Iraq and Afghanistan: "What can he do in Iraq? Nothing. And Afghanistan is too complicated."

So Ahmadinejad concludes, "Mr. Obama has only one chance and that is Iran. This is not an emotional comment, it's scientific."

Which only leaves the question, success with Iran through what? Is the President actually holding the door open for another push at a deal on uranium enrichment?

1000 GMT: The 15 June March. Still some confusion over whether Iranian authorities --- specifically, Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province --- said they had authorised the mass demonstration three days after the election.

The Green Voice of Freedom repeated the claim of Parleman News, itself taken from an alleged Tamaddon interview with a magazine, that the march "was actually held with legal authorisation". It appears, however, that GVF has not noted Tamaddon's subsequent denial, which we reported yesterday, of the supposed statement. His line remains that the protest, which brought hundreds of thousands and possibly millions on the streets, was illegal.

0245 GMT. Rafsanjani Watch. Make of this what you will: Hashemi Rafsanjani has made a well-publicised visit this week to Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

Hassan Khomeini has been under sustained pressure from the Government throughout the post-election crisis over his apparent support for opposition demands,

0240 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ashura protester Hossein Vahed has received a two-year prison sentence.

0230 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online reports that Iran has "lost" $2 billion on oil fields.

0215 GMT: You Can't Keep A President Down (Or Can't You?).

The President-Parliament battle over economic plans escalates. Ahmadinejad has insisted that all changes will be implemented this year.

Key legislators and Ahmadinejad critics are not being so positive, Ahmad Tavakoli has declared that an agreement between two or three MPs and the President doesn't mean an agreement between the Majlis and the Government. That line is also taken by Elyas Naderan.

How serious is the dispute? Vice President Fatemeh Badaghi has threatened MPs by asserting that immunity for their actions exists only in Parliament.