The Latest from Iran (4 April): Renewal

2225 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Javad Sharafkhani, the spokesperson for Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign in Ilam province in western Iran, has been arrested.

2220 GMT: We'll Get You (Even If You're Outside Iran). Minister of Justice Morteza Bakhtiari has announced that a special prosecutorial branch will be established shortly to deal with Iranians residing abroad.

NEW Iran Exclusive: Detained Emad Baghi in Poor Health, House Raided, Relative Beaten
NEW Video: Obama on Iran, Health Care (2 April)
Iran: 4 Ways the US Can Help the Green Movement (Shahryar)
The Latest from Iran (3 April): Celebration

2215 GMT: Economy Watch. Mehdi Aqdaie, the deputy director of Iran's Privatisation Organization, has said that Iran hopes to raise about $12.5 billion by privatising more than 500 state firms during the 2010-11 year, including two refineries and two car makers.


1835 GMT: Propaganda Watch. Press TV --- bless 'em --- get it right this time. A day after headlining the Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's statement with the prospect of nuclear annihilation, they correctly frame today's Mottaki declaration, which says nothing new: "Mottaki Calls For Global Nuclear Disarmament".

1445 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Radio Farda reports that Hossein Marashi,  a close political ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani and a cousin of Rafsanjani's wife, has been sent to jail again. Marashi, who has been given a one-year sentence, was detained last month but freed after a few days.

1420 GMT: Bayat-Zanjani and the Political Prisoners. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, meeting the families of political prisoners, has said:

I am shocked that [our leaders] don’t learn from the fate of the rulers that came to power and fell throughout history? Why should one ignore the lessons learned from the past and commit the same wrong actions against the best of the people? Know this that the struggle to stay in power by any means possible requires confrontations such as what is being done against you. You are oppressed and the prayers of the oppressed will be answered.

1405 GMT: More Subsidy Fun. The Iranian Parliament has reconvened after the New Year break, and already battle has been joined over the President's insistence that he get more revenues from subsidy cuts.

Speaker Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament announced that discussions have been "finalised", although the Parliament will “collaborate closely with the Government giving close attention to its views and reasoning.”

Defying Larijani, however, a group of MPs announced that they have prepared a new proposal for allocation of $35 billion from cuts instead of the already approved $20 billion. Ruhollah Hossenian, a fervent Ahmadinejad supporter, said that the proposal  has already been signed by 100 legislators.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist and human rights activist Abolfazl Abedini has been sentenced to 11 years in prison.

There are concerns over the poor health of Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran detained on 27 January and held in Section 350 of Evin Prison.

The status of Ehsan Mohrabi of Farhikhtegan newspaper is unknown.

Jahangir Abdollahi, a Masters student in political science at Tehran University, is under pressure in Evin Prison to confess.

1045 GMT: We have posted absolutely reliable, disturbing information on the poor health of detained journalist Emaduddin Baghi and the harassment of his family.

1040 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. A new Rah-e-Sabz documentary highlights the role of Hashemi Rafsanjani in post-election events and attempts by the regime to limit his public intervention.

0830 GMT. And More Subsidy Clashes. Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam of Parliament's  Economic Committee has said that the Ahmadinejad Government is seeking to delay the implementation of the subsidy reform plan. Parliament only gave the President $20 billion of the extra $40 billion in revenues he was seeking from subsidy cuts.

0825 GMT: Oil Crunch. Could disinvestment in Iran's oil production (see 0615 GMT) become a crisis? Consider the half-empty, half-full spin of the Government.

Iran's Oil Minister Masoud Mirzakemi says the country needs $200 billion in investment in the oil sector. However, the head of Iran's Committee for Transportation and Fuel Management insists the country is capable of becoming self-sufficient in gasoline production this year.

0815 GMT: Press TV Funnies. Yesterday, the Iranian media outlet featured a headline which indicated Iran's Foreign Minister was supported nuclear annihilation (see our 0730 GMT update on Saturday). We are encouraged that Press TV staff are reading Enduring America since, soon after we noted this, the headline was changed to "FM: Iran Strongly Supports Elimination of Nukes".

Today, bless 'em, Press TV is chronologically confused over Iran's promotion of a nuclear-free world:

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast says Tehran's international conference on nuclear disarmament has been widely welcomed.

According to Mehmanparast, the conference dubbed "Nuclear energy for all, nuclear weapons for none,” will be held in Tehran on March 17th and 18th.

0715 GMT: Photo of Day (see inset). Behzad Nabavi, the prominent reformist sentenced to five years in prison, and his wife enjoy the last days of his temporary release.

0713 GMT: Movies and Rights. Activist Shadi Sadr has received Amnesty International's  "Golden Butterfly" award for appearance in film Women in Shroud. Sadr writes, "I believe [this] is for all activists of the “Stop Stoning Forever Campaign” –-- both those who appeared in the documentary film...and those who didn’t."

Bahman Ghobadi, the director of the drama-"documentary" No One Knows About Persian Cats, received two awards from the international film festival in the Netherlands.

0710 GMT: Renewal. The cultural newspaper Farhang-e-Ashti has reappeared after its suspension and the arrest of a number of its journalists.

0705 GMT:  InsideIRAN offers an overview of the emergence of the women's movement:

It is certainly too soon to draw conclusions or write endings for a fragile movement that has been under increasing pressure, but just like other aspects of the green movement, it is the outreach of the women’s movement within society that gives it strength and prominence. Despite the heavy crackdown on some of its most notable leaders, as long as fourteen-year-old girls across Iran are engaging in conversation, it will be an ongoing struggle and a voice that cannot be silenced.

0650 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom publishes the names and sentences of 26 "lesser-known" detainees in Section 350 of Evin Prison.



Kalemeh warns of the declining health of journalist Mohammad Nourizad. Arrested on 20 December, Nourizad suffers from a heart problem and diabetes.

Nourizad wrote for the pro-government Kayhan but became a vocal critic of the regime after the 12 June election.

Baha’i photographer and musician Artin Ghazanfari has been released on $50,000 bail.

0640 GMT: Interviewed by Rah-e-Sabz, Farrokh Negahdar of the socialist Organization of Iranian People's Fedayyin supports non-violent protests, with constant pressure for change of laws and expansion of the popular base, especially amongst workers.

0615 GMT: A Happy Easter Day to all those celebrating the occasion.

More on yesterday's visits by hundreds of reformists to former President Mohammad Khatami. Khabar Online --- far from a reformist publication --- offers two articles, providing a list of visitors and observing that visits continued even after the noon prayer. Indeed, not all those stopping by were reformists; several visitors came in Government cars, indicating they are currently serving in the Ahmadinejad administration.

Mohammad Javad Haghshenas, the publisher of Mehdi Karroubi's now-banned newspaper Etemade Melli, has said that reformists should seek an understanding with "hardliners", while expanding their popular base of support.

The prominent academic Sadegh Zibakalam has evaluated that further sanctions against Iran are inevitable; China can lessen but not prevent them.

On the economic front, in a sign that company disinvestment from Iran is having an effect, Hamid Hosseini of the Chamber of Commerce complains about insufficient participation of the private sector in the oil industry.

Comments

[Catherine]

RE 06.15 On the economic front, in a sign that company disinvestment from Iran is having an effect, Hamid Hosseini of the Chamber of Commerce complains about insufficient participation of the private sector in the oil industry.

Iran Seeks $200b in Oil Investment
Iran is seeking $200 billion in oil, gas and refining investments over five years to avoid a production decline, the country's oil minister said on Wednesday.
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20100403085858/Iran%20Seeks%20$200B%20In%20Oil%20Investment

[Megan]

This video is heartbreaking: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afKedBaAXeU.

The little girl in this video looks to be 3 years old and completely unaware that she is working alongside her father (uncle?) to make a living by panhandling. She is baffled by strangers singing to her father’s music. After watching the onlookers stopping and singing she gets up and sings along completely unaware that she is singing the song that has become the national anthem for democracy.

The little girl is happy. She has no clue that she was born in a God forsaken place called Islamic Republic; a place where happiness and living are against the law. The father, a young man, looks void of any emotion as if he had stopped living a long time ago. He knows that in a land of plenty he and his family will have none. He is playing the song of national resistance, Yar Dabestani Man, but he himself has no fight left in him. He sounds like he is just counting down to the end.

When I saw this video my first thought was I wished I knew who they were and how I could reach them and help that precious child. I then realized the video was dated 18 Tir and wondered if the man and his daughter ever made it home that day. They were playing a song that is viewed anti regime, the streets on that day were full of trigger happy security forces and baton wielding Basij so what would be their chances to have made it home with food for the rest of the family that day? I cannot stop thinking about that child and her father. Where is justice in this world I ask?

[Catherine]

RE 06.15 The prominent academic Sadegh Zibakalam has evaluated that further sanctions against Iran are inevitable; China can lessen but not prevent them.

TU Political science professor Zibakalam is one of my favourite Iranian commentators. Sadly, he no longer appears on Aljazeera English as often as he used to before last July. I searched for this in English, but couldn't find anything. If anyone who reads Persian would care to summarise the article in English beyond the main points Scott posted, I'd be very grateful.

However, I did find Sadegh Zibakalam's predictions for Iran in 2010 made at the beginning of February:
Iran in one year: doom, gloom, and a faint ray of hope
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=111472

[Catherine]

Iranian Refugee Watch: Iranian human rights reporter Hesam Misaghi and activist Aida Saadat were interviewed by the Associated Press at Saadat's home in Nigde, Turkey. Misaghi and Saadat both fled to Turkey with the help of smugglers after the fierce crackdown since the disputed presidential elections in June 2009.

Very good article by the AP:
Government crackdown in Iran drives growing number of dissidents into exile
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nationworld/sns-ap-ml-turkey-iranian-refugees,0,6671381,full.story

[Catherine]

RE: 0713 GMT: Movies and Rights. Activist Shadi Sadr has received Amnesty International’s ”Golden Butterfly” award for appearance in film Women in Shroud.

I saw this very powerful film last December. Women in Shroud is a documentary about the violent injustice in the Iranian legal system, particularly towards women. Lawyer Shadi Sadr is primarily occupied with making the case for the abolition of executions by stoning. We hear the stories of various women for whom Sadr is acting. Leila, for example, has been convicted of having sex with family members after she was raped by her brothers. Together with other women in the organization Stop Stoning Forever (SSF), Sadr is attempting to put an end to stoning.

But how does one stop something that does not officially exist? In 2004, execution by stoning was abolished, but the death certificates that record "death caused by a hard object" betray its continuing practice. This is why women are trying to generate attention for this horrific form of execution. Through verité footage and interviews with women who were accused (often without adequate proof) of adultery and sentenced to the death penalty, the film exposes the arbitrary and highly subjective nature of Iranian judicial justice, and the discriminatory cultural and moral double-standards applied by the judges towards sentencing women they believed to be guilty of adulterous behaviour.

Watch a clip: http://www.rferl.org/video/6203.html

[Catherine]

Sorry to be hogging this thread, but while I'm sitting here in vain waiting for the rain to stop (and the brave Professor Lucas is battling the forces of obscurantism at "another blog"), I just couldn't resist sharing the following "CNN exclusive".

Last night I watched my recording of the Friday (2 April) edition of CNN's 'Situation Room' , and to my surprise it started with programme host Wolf Blitzer barely able to contain his excitement while dramatically announcing: "CNN is learning exclusive details about shipments of Iranian weapons to Taliban fighters in Afghanistan, bomb components, rockets, grenades, and more, all posing a deadly threat to tens of thousands of U.S. forces on the ground. Roadside bombs are the deadliest threat facing U.S. forces in Afghanistan, and now a U.S. source is telling CNN that Iran -- (more emphasis) *Iran* is significant stepping up shipments of bomb parts, as well as rockets and grenades, to Taliban fighters inside Afghanistan".

I couldn't help but smile as I recalled the equally exclusive Channel 4 report from 18 March, 'Exclusive: Iran supplies weapons to Taliban', which I had read weeks before.

So who's more exclusive and who has the better scoop?

Channel 4: http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/world/asia_pacific/exclusive+iran+supplies+weapons+to+taliban/3582967 (note the number of bold-faced mentions of themselves throughout the article)?

Or CNN's Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr and her exclusive details?:
"Well, Wolf, a senior U.S. defense official now tells CNN that the latest military intelligence, in fact, shows that Iran is planning to smuggle additional weapons shipments into Afghanistan to the Taliban fighters. ...The expectation now, the intelligence shows that the weapons are expected to be smuggled across Iran's border into Afghanistan, and, very worrisome, Wolf, possibly down into the southern city of Kandahar.
More: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1004/02/sitroom.02.html

To her credit, Ms Starr's report for CNN's website is slightly less alarmist:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/04/02/iran.taliban.weapons/index.html?section=cnn_latest

[Samuel]

Catherine,

"Very good article by the AP:
Government crackdown in Iran drives growing number of dissidents into exile"

Always a very good thing when Greenies leave. It is a development that hopefully continues to grow.

[Samuel]

Catherine,

"I’m sitting here in vain waiting for the rain to stop (and the brave Professor Lucas is battling the forces of obscurantism at “another blog”)"

With all due respect to Professor Lucas he has been confronted by many rational, scholarly, fact based points of view (which the Prof. has acknowledged) on the Leverett web site. Said points of view differ sharply with conventional Green Propaganda but they are hardly obscurantist to use your term.

To be sure there has been a certain amount of name calling in that passionate, illuminating debate which has stretched out over several days but there is a bit of that on this site as well.

[Catherine]

Yes Samuel, there are two or three out of the crowd whose contributions fit the description in your middle paragraph, whereas the majority of the most active participants fit mine. I was surprised. I thought the readers of the Leveretts' blog would all be foreign policy wonks and academics, but they're more like a cross between those of the Tehran Bureau and Payvand.com.

A fascinating discussion nonetheless - and I'm only half way through!

[Arshama]

Catherine,

RE 0615: Sadegh Zibakalam

Iran Emrooz (or rather Fararoo) first deals with the IRI's efforts to prevent sanctions by travel diplomacy (Algeria, Gaboon) during the past week, especially Jalili's visit to China, which was declared as a victory. However Hu Jintao's statement after Obama's phone call proves the opposite, i.e. sanctions are inevitable, and China will only reduce them, from 100% to 80 or 70% perhaps, but not prevent them.
Zibakalam points to the fact hat China has reduced her investments in Iran's oil sector and also her oil imports, i.e. she already has implemented sanctions, but says the opposite to the IRI.
He warns of the high costs of a partial alliance with China and Russia, which are only interested in their own benefits. He also criticises the high costs of Iran's nuclear programme in general, asking for its economic and political benefits in long term, which do not correspond with the losses (sanctions and international isolation) at all. Compares it with the meager benefits for Pakistan or North Korea, whose nuclear programme is much more developed. Instead of confrontation, Iran should return to its former foreign policy.
Zibakalam predicts that all permanent Security Council members will vote for sanctions and more than 50% of all members will do the same, except of Brazil and some other states perhaps.

[ange paris]

Very moving video; look at the scared faces of the audience; Mr Mottaki, there is no need to put anti nuclear lectures for 17-18 of April showing how civilised the " Regime " is, you are seen as the audience look at the actors ( the " laptops ", your ennemies which have revealed your true nature), you are seen as the monsters !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMZuLsPdTZs

[ange paris]

up and down of Raffers :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OmUUAg68dU

It's said that in 6 months either raffers will be removed or the current leaders !

[ange paris]

With good release for all the prisoners in the jail :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cATa7Ss8l-Y

[Catherine]

Arshama,
Thanks so much for your summary. I often wonder how Zibakalam gets away with saying things like this in interviews and still retains both his post as professor and his personal freedom. E.g criticising the high costs of Iran’s nuclear programme in general, questioning its economic and political benefits in long term, etc and concluding that instead of confrontation, Iran should return to its former foreign policy.

[M. Ali]

The discussion at raceforiran.com was fantastic. One of the members, Eric, posted the article he wrote at http://iran2009presidentialelection.blogspot.com/

It was a fantastic article that changed my mind regarding the elections.

To put it in context, I voted for Mousavi and initially was disappointed and angry at Mousavi's loss. I wrote lengthly blogs, engaged in online & offline discussions passionatly attacking the government, and even took part in an early protest (outside Iran). However, as months rolled by I started to get disillusioned with the Green's propaganda, lies, distortion of truth, baseless attacks on the government, inability to the see the bigger picture, hypocrisy, double-standarism, and so forth. I started withdrawing a bit from the whole thing and trying to look at it from a neutral position and have remained there since, and the above link placed the final nail in my ex-green mentality.

The Holy Trilogy of Reformists (Rafsanjani, Mousavi, and Khatami) has been in charge of the government for 24 of the 31 years, yet the Greenies and reformists pretend that THEY are the answer to Iran's problems, as if all problems started from Ahmedinijad's time and before him all was perfect.

[Scott Lucas]

M. Ali,

Thank you for this. I encourage all EA readers to read the discussion of Eric A. Brill's argument for the legitimacy of the election and the challenges to it.

S.

[Megan]

M. Ali,

Green Movement is not about Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami or Karroubi. Iran Democracy Movement is about getting rid of the entire system that has been in place since 1979 and that includes all actors in Islamic Republic. Green is the color of rejecting a 14 century dictatorship and not the symbol of Islam or reformist faction of Islamo fascists who have occupied our homeland since 1979. Green is the color of separation of mullah and state. There is no delusion there. If anybody is still hallucinating that people gave their lives to change fascist Khamenei/Ahmadi team with another fascists gang will have to do that at his/her own peril. Eighty Five percent of the country has long crossed that bridge.

By the way nice try but it won't work- not this time. This is 2010 not 1979.

[M. Ali]

Megan, that is what you like to imagine the Green Movement to be. My problem with the Green Movement is that it is nothing specific, just a random collection of people with various agendas, with no clear goal.

I have noticed that a lot of your posts seem to indicate that you assume you know what ALL of the Iranians want. Unfortunately, it is points of views like yours that made the Green movement so unattractiev to me, realizing that people that were supposed to be Green had absolutely no real objective.

You claim that "is about getting rid of the entire system that has been in place since 1979 and that includes all actors in Islamic Republic." Who mentions that? Which prominent green leader claims that? Who ARE the green leaders? If there are no leaders and its all grassroot, then how can I know that is their goal?

I have spoken to many Greenies in Tehran and other cities, and they all have different expectations of what the end results seem to be. I talked to two girls who had zero political knowledge and claimed that they just wanted the system to change because "anything is better than this", but when I pushed them into a political debate, they fell short, because they had no understanding at all of what Anything Other Than This could be. This was the same emotions that probably helped remove the Shah and the same people then later on thought, "Uh...now what?" and realized the outcome was not what they wanted.

But I also talked to other Greenies. Young, uni students who were very pro-Mousavi but also did not want to do away with the system nor the Supreme Leader. Interestingly, most Greens I met in Tehran did not WANT to change the system, thankfully being smart enough to know that the great instability that would follow would set Iran back again. And I would say that most of these Greens seemed to be less Pro-Mousavi and more Anti-Ahmedinijad.

"Green is the color of rejecting a 14 century dictatorship and not the symbol of Islam or reformist faction of Islamo fascists who have occupied our homeland since 1979."

Iran is still a very traditionaly Islamic nation. Forget the cute photos you see online, the majority of Iran involve conservative, religious families.

For example, take the youth in Iran. Yes, they party and some have pre-maritial relationships, but how many of the girls tell their parents or brothers that they have boyfriends? Most of them have to hide it, which is not to escape the wrath of the government, but to escape the wrath of their parents. Walk around Tehran, and hold the hand of your girlfriend and laugh with her, but when driving her home, you drop her a few houses away, so that the neighbours and her parents don't see her with a guy.

"Green is the color of separation of mullah and state. "

There is no indication of this, given tha tthe strong support it seems the Greens showed the mullahs, such as Ayatollah Mortazeri's passing away.

"Eighty Five percent of the country has long crossed that bridge."

Do you like randomly pulling numbers out of an Imagination Hat? What 85%? From what source?

"By the way nice try but it won’t work- not this time. This is 2010 not 1979."

I'm sorry to say, but there will be no major changes in 2010. Nothing happened in 22 Bahman and since then, there has been nothing.

[ange paris]

M. Ali
I will read your article found on the "race for Iran"'s blog, but before, just a question of common sens, how do you call an election , where , few hours after, in the night, state TV announced that AN was the winner, when in Irak, the votes counting last 2 weeks !!!!! this kind of elections is called " the rigged one " !

[Edward]

I sat there and watched them pull numbers out of hats on election night. That said it all. Ahmedinejad has also said twice, that I have heard, that "no other countries in the area have free and fair elections, so why is (the West) complaining about OUR election?" That's not a very strong argument, if he really believed that he was re-elected fairly. Khamenei also said on one occasion (paraphrasing): "Elections were held in Rafsandjani's day just as they were held this time, so don't complain, now." That was a very revealing Freudian slip. Once a cheater, always a cheater.

[M. Ali]

As per Eric's article, votes were counted separately in each ballot box, not all sent to Tehran and then counted. Iran is not Iraq.

[ange paris]

people counting the votes were faster than computer's counting in the west !! my respects ! they have to teach their knowledge to the others; if you have forgotten your fellows fallen in the battle ! we have not ! "I " have not and all the images , all the noises are in my head ! their pictures, the face of their family on it, I will never forget, I was shocking seeing all those atrocities that you have forgotten; you forgive very easily and frankly shame on you !!!!

[Bill]

M Ali,

Yes nothing will change:

1) Thousands will remain in prison in direct violation of the constittution

2) 72 and most likely hundereds more will remain dead an buried lost to their families forever

3) The regime will continue to intimidate, beat, and rape its way into staying in power

4) Iran will remain the preminent jailer of journalists and bloggers across the whole world having more behind bars than most of the world combined

5) Religious minorities such as the Bahais will continue to persecuted per state sponsored sanctions

6) The regime will continue to "privatize" industry making sure select government entities will control the economy

7) Big brother will further its surveillance and censorhsip of all

8) The regime will continue to ignore the bulk of the clerics including all the Grand Ayatollahs who came out in favor of the Green Movement

9) The universities and government will continue to be purged of those to "liberal" and not in line with the regime

10) The brain drain will continue in Iran as the best and brightest will find their way to freedom outside the country

10) The dictators will stay in power

My god man what planet are you on? Because the greens cannot organize and present a cohesive front under threat of death you write them off? Did it escape your notice the one succesful rally the regime had was a staged one? I guess it also escaped your notice that the election was only the catalyst for a multi polar movement waiting to be born after 30 years of oppression. You even mention traditional Islam but ignore it was the regime who even violated that!! The people simply want change because as it was best said "anything is better than this!" The common denominator if you had paid attention was simply basic human rights--that is what unites the Green Movement. Go back and ask all and I bet if prompted almost all will 100% agree with you. It is easy to find reasons why the Green Movement is not viable(the regime has made that real easy)--I only encourage you to push that aside and realize why it is viable that being the pursuit of freedom, liberty, and basic human rights many of us in the west take for granted.

While I am not an Iranian, but an American, I do have a personal connection to this. My best friend is from Tehran and her mother and brother were both visited and eventually detained. Neither participated in any protests yet it seems their crime was having worked for reform papers YEARS AGO! They are not Green per say but what unites them with the movement today like all is again the plea for basic human rights. Its about human rights and always will be!

Thx
Bill

[Catherine]

Bill - that was excellent.

[ange paris]

Bill
Thank you very much; really well said .