Iran's Nuclear Programme: The US Strategy

UPDATE 2100 GMT: Sometimes I wonder if a psychiatrist should just diagnose schizophrenia in the patient called the US Administration. Earlier today, we cited one "senior official" who said the US did not see an imminent threat from Tehran because of technical issues in its nuclear program. David Broder of The Washington Post, however, has a different "private" view from another official: "A senior administration official, dining with a small group of reporters two weeks ago, say that in his judgment, within a year to 18 months, after the diplomats have played out their hands at the United Nations, we will face a showdown with Iran."

Perhaps the two views can be reconciled with "no war now, maybe war later", but my impression is that yet again we have an Administration at war with itself over whether to talk to Iran or beat it over the head.

***

EA has learned that one of the Obama administration's most senior officials dealing with the Iran nuclear issue revealed the core of the US strategy at a private gathering in Washington this week.



Officially the US is still interested in the talks for "third-party enrichment" of Iran's uranium. However, Washington assessed that Iran has been able to enrich enough uranium since the autumn discussions that the amount being considered is superfluous. Washington, therefore, is less eager to pursue the deal.

(I find the statement somewhat curious, as the advantages of a deal are as much political --- getting an easing of US-Iran relations --- as they are technical. I sense there may be broader reasons for Washington's stall on talks.)

While pointing to Iran's enrichment of uranium, the official said Washington believes the "nuclear clock has slowed down significantly" because of technical difficulties in the enrichment program. (I suspect this may refer to the limitations on Iran's centrifuges.)

Therefore, the official said, "We have more time before the Israelis feel the need to take action."

(Some observers believe that comment indicates a tacit understanding in the administration that Israel will eventually reach the point of action and the U.S. will not stand in its way. My own reading is that the statement tries to take the heat out of the "Israeli dimension" by indicating there is no imminent threat to the Israelis from a militarised nuclear programme in Tehran.)

The Latest from Iran (22 April): This Isn't Over

1230 GMT: EA On the Move. Hopefully, we'll be relocating from the US to the UK today, so updates will be restricted until tomorrow afternoon. My thanks to all for their patience, and for keeping up going through news and comments while I'm heading home.

1215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (If You Know Someone in MKO, You're a Criminal). There seems to be a pattern in a number of recent sentences, including death penalties. As we reported yesterday, six people have been handed down orders for execution because they are related to or acquainted with members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedin-e-Khalq "terrorist" movement.

An Iranian activist now reports that Monireh Rabaei has received a five-year sentence, upheld on appeal, on the basis that she has an uncle in Camp Ashraf in Iraq, home to many PMOI members. The following sentences have also been passed on the basis of "connections with MKO": Zia Nabavi 15 years, Ozra Ghazi-Mirsaied three years, and Mahdiyeh Golro 28 months.

NEW Iran Document: Detained Nourizad’s Letter to Khamenei “We Have Lost Our People”
NEW Iran Document: Ayatollah Sane’i “Some Want Islam For Their Own Agendas”
Iran: The Latest Post-Election Death Sentences
NEW How Iran News is Made: Adultery, Earthquakes, and the BBC
The Latest from Iran (21 April): Waiting for News

1115 GMT: Economy Watch. Rooz Online's claims of layoffs are not quite as dramatic as those in the Human Rights Activists report (see 1100 GMT), but they are still striking:

Labor news sources report the laying off of at least 2,500 industrial and leather workers in Ilam and Mashad. Counting other laid-off workers in industrial and large cities such as Abadan, Ahwaz, Khorramshahr and Shiraz, during the last two weeks, more than 4,000 workers have lost their jobs just in the recent past.

...The crisis in Iran’s industrial sector has reached such a level that, in an interview yesterday, the head of Iran’s House of Labor predicted the closure of hundreds of large and medium industrial firms per year and the subsequent laying off of 200,000 workers every year after that.

1100 GMT: Firings and Abuses. Human Rights Activists in Iran has released a report claimed more than 38,000 cases of firings and human rights abuses in Iran in the past month.

Of the cases, more than 90% (37,519) are the layoffs of workers in Iran, as 166 production lines in the country have been shut down every month, according to a labour official. At least 11 protests and gatherings have been staged by workers in the country in the last month alone.

The group cites 537 cases of abuse of students’ rights, 255 cases of abuse against political and civil activists, 34 cases of capital punishment, 259 cases of torture and prisoner abuse, at least seven cases of citizens killed in frontier provinces, 124 arrests and abuse of national minority rights, and 68 cases of arrest and abuses against religious minorities.

Human Rights Activists says that, because of the scale of the abuses and the difficulties in documenting them in a rigid security atmosphere, the cases are only a fraction of the abuses that are occurring.

1055 GMT: Is Google A Regime Enemy? The Iranian Labor News Agency reports that a ban on Google Images has been lifted by Iranian authorities, 24 hours after it was imposed.

1045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Women’s rights activist Dorsa Sobhani has been released after a detention of more than six weeks. Sobhani spent 25 days in solitary confinement.

The brother of Majid Tavakoli says that the student leader, detained on 7 December after a speech at a National Student Day rally, remains in solitary confinement.

Student activist Nader Ahsani has been re-arrested and taken to Evin Prison.

1040 GMT: "We Had to Save the System". A potentially explosive admission....

Aftab, from the weekly Panjareh, quotes an unnamed high-ranking intelligence official, who admits that post-election arrests, especially those of the first round of senior reformists, were planned ahead of the 12 June vote.

The detentions were a preventive measure because Iranian intelligence agencies anticipated major unrest which could get out of control. The official said, "Our law is not appropriate to fight against 'soft war', so we had to take these measures [to save the system]. The fifth statement of Mosharekat party [Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution] clearly speaks of establishing a secular system."

1030 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. On another front, Mehdi Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has warned the regime to "stop spreading lies" and to "beware of the time, when I speak out". Hashemi, who is currently in London, has been threatened by the Iranian authorities with prosecution for alleged corruption and misuse of funds during the Presidential election.

0945 GMT: After an extended break, we return today to a series of powerful responses to the regime, all of which make clear that the challenge to legitimacy will not be crushed.

In a separate entry, we have posted the latest statement of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, criticising the Government for its misuse of Islam in its lies and detentions.

We also have a second feature: from inside Evin Prison, the detained journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad has written a letter to the Supreme Leader requesting that he "declare this year the year of national reconciliation and do not fear the reproach". In itself, that is not a direct challenge to the regime --- it acknowledges Khamenei's authority, after all --- however, the letter has special potency because Nourizad's detention was prompted by a previous appeal to the Supreme Leader to recognise the illegitimacies of the election.

Mohsen Armin, member of Parliament and former Vice Speaker, has also launched a spirited criticism of the Government. A senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, which is now under threat of suspension, Armin denounced lies and threats of prosecution and demanded that the regime address the basic issues of rights and equality.

MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz has asserted that the inability of the Ahmadinejad Government to make appropriate use of $370 billion oil income is a "catastrophe".

Iran Document: Detained Nourizad's Letter to Khamenei "We Have Lost Our People"

Pedestrian offers both the introduction to and the translation of Mohammad Nourizad's letter to the Supreme Leader....

Mohammad Nourizad is a writer, producer and journalist. He began his work for the state broadcaster IRIB with the late Morteza Avini’s Revayateh Fath [Tales of Resistance] – a documentary series on the Iran-Iraq war.

Prior to the election, he wrote for the hardline newspaper Kayhan, but what made him a household name was his support of the opposition after the election, and his letters to the supreme leader for which he is now serving time in prison.

He’s now written a fourth letter to the leader while in Evin Prison:

Iran Document: Ayatollah Sane’i “Some Want Islam For Their Own Agendas”
The Latest from Iran (22 April): This Isn’t Over

It’s been nearly four months now that I have been in prison for writing your eminence a letter. I have spent 68 days in solitary confinement. I have been insulted and beaten by my interrogators. In all of this, I have continued to speak of you as an intelligent, wise leader and I still believe that if change is to be brought to the country, this change will only be doable and sustainable if it comes from you. Personally, I have no hope in other bodies and individuals within the establishment. I know you closely. I know of your great soul. You in turn know me quite well.


While in prison, I have been unaware of what has been going on in the outside world. But in a brief encounter I had only once, with my family, I found out that in my absence, Mr. [Mir Hossein] Mousavi, Mr. [Mohammad] Khatami, and Mr. [Mehdi] Karroubi have gone to see my family. I don’t know why, but somehow I wished that you, with the greatness I know of you, would have made the effort to see my family, to comfort them, and tell them that: in those chaotic days when I, the leader, was under constant attack from all around me, this fellow, Nourizad, came to my defense with his writings, with his TV programs.

Now, today, he is in prison for criticizing me! And he must learn manners in prison. His wife and children must be insulted by the rude, ignorant interrogators, and he must be crushed under brutal beatings, humiliation and threats. But this doesn’t mean that I, the leader, do not appreciate his previous efforts. It doesn’t mean that even if I don’t visit his family, I won’t send a representative to do so.

Dear Leader, my family’s anticipation to see you or our representative went nowhere. I guess that in this world, people have an expiration date. And when this date arrives, they must be thrown to the curb, like dirty napkins. But me and those like me, we were not pulled towards you because of a particular gravitation towards Khamenei himself. In the elegance of your thoughts, we saw the lost dreams of our nation and that of the world.

I remember that in recent times, when I was trying to meet with you, Hossein Mohammadi, your chief of staff, kept promising me a meeting for months. So I wrote him a letter and said, "I seek refuge from Khamenei, in the arms of the God that Khamenei believes in." And I never came to you again. And you returned the gesture.

Because I know that you do not see the people’s wishes, being blocked from you by the ignorant fools who surround you. These are the very things I wanted to tell you in those meetings, but it appears that those who surround you, know of the words I wished to say to you, and know of my thoughts. After a meeting you had with the PEN Association, of which I am a member, this very Mr. Mohammadi told me: “Mr. Nourizad, swear to God, I am scared of you.” His fear came from that very constrained meeting in which without reservation, I spoke about the widespread drug addiction among our people and our youth, and the chaos that has ensued in our cities, big or small.

And now, why do I write you from prison? Because still, in bewilderment, I have hope in you, yes, in you. My belief is that: only you can think of a way out of this chaos our people are in. Today, which people do you consider yourself a leader to? I do not see many people with you. Leadership over a small number of people is not something to be proud of. You nor I, we should not be tricked by seeing the leagues of people who come to greet a state official, or even you. If you allow other people to speak, you will see of the fire and frenzy with which those individuals too will be greeted. But those who come to greet a state official, those populations are not a point of reference, and have never been.

Today, you lead a country whose people have broken ranks with the leadership. A country facing many questions. A country whose unity has been broken, by you, and those who surround you; today, a trivial, narrow worldview has taken over. I don’t know what you have named this year. But I know that in your naming, you have referred to diligence and hard work. [[Khamenei gives every year a name: this year he has called "double diligence and double work", from which many jokes have ensued]. This naming convention shows that your advisors are not honest or efficient. We would have all applauded you if you had named this year "the year of national reconciliation" and had stepped forward for this hard and difficult task.

If hard work and diligence are important to you, you must use them towards national reconciliation.

Dear leader, I know that my troublesome words are bitter and chaotic. But I ask you to accept these honest, bitter words over the servile words of those who surround you. Our society sits amidst a great explosion. It is a pressure cooker on the verge of explosion, on the nozzle which we’ve stuck a burning match, for not wanting to hear it boil.

I write of you with the same reassurance I wrote of you before. We are reaching the end days of this great test. Destiny, this heavenly tradition, will soon end our chance to grapple with this test. A test which we have only answered with chaos and devastation in the past thirty years. Me and you, we have lost our people. If you see them calm or silent, that is only because of fear of guns and terror. If you do not believe me, submit to an imaginary test: in two countries, Iran and another country, say Sweden or Canada or even Malaysia, we announce that for one day, only one day, there will be no police or militias or weapons. And they are free to do whatever they wish. In the end of this day, what do you imagine our country would look like? and how about the other country? In this comparison, I do not mean to lay praise to the West. But rather, I want to point to the deceptive silence prevalent in our own society.

Dear leader! many like me still hold respect for you and wish the best for our country. We have faith in your leadership. With your leadership, we wish to reach the highest peaks. But it seems as if you do not wish the same. It seems that your friends and advisers who surround you, are quite ignorant and only serve to deceive you by providing false information. And they speak untruthfully on your behalf. Friends like Mr. Shariatmadari from [the newspaper] Kayhan. Come it a day when all have left you, and you and him are stranded alone on an island, he will come to your blind defense even if that means opposing you.

Even with the bitter tone of my letter, I sing loud and clear to the universe: we love you and hope to see your fate end well. Believe me, believe us. At the very least, in your mind, imagine that we are right. Imagining this will come at no cost for you. In your mind believe that your good friends, even though they have been labeled in the ranks of the enemy, worry for your fate, and hope to see you shine bright in these final days of the lord’s great test. With great courage, the courage I know you have, declare this year the year of national reconciliation and do not fear the reproach. God is enough for us. The God that will place the people’s hands in yours.

~Your son: Mohammad Nourizad, Evin Ward 240, Cell 57

Iran Document: Ayatollah Sane'i "Some Want Islam For Their Own Agendas"

Because of his senior clerical position, Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i has been one of the most significant critics of the Government after the June election. After the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in December, the regime has tried to limit Sane'i through pressure and intimidation, and he has been more muted in his comments. However, this week these comments to students emerged:

Regretfully today some want Islam for their own personal lives, for their ranks and powers and for their own agendas; and have used the religion for their own benefit instead of serving their religion....

Iran Document: Detained Nourizad’s Letter to Khamenei “We Have Lost Our People”
The Latest from Iran (22 April): This Isn’t Over

I warned a few years ago that the danger of lying is serious. But today this problem has reached a point some people have become such shameless and blatant liars that everyone recognizes their lies and deceptions, [these individuals] as long as they have the opportunity to lie, don’t even care to tell the truth. These issues are very regretful. It is regretful for you and us, it is regretful for those how lost their loved ones as martyrs and sacrificed a lot for the system and the revolution. It is regretful, but for those whom Islam and people’s religion and happiness is not important,this issue is no matter of concern....


Unfortunately today in this country we reached a point I the prominent figures and even the family of Imam Khomeini are being easily insulted and no one stops this....

Do as much as you can and spread the word that Islam is a very good religion. Promote the culture you believe in, the Islamic culture, the Islamic Republic and the constitution, the one that people voted for it not the one that some individuals have interpreted. Be cautions minimize the costs in this path but also the situation and conditions should not be such that the oppressors assume that oppression is an effective act and they were successful in silencing the oppressed....

While the rest of the world is achieving amazing progress, today we are trying to solve the problems by detaining academia, scholars, journalists, and ordinary people. dismissing faculty members and students, shutting down newspapers, barring people from traveling abroad, and insulting the children of Imam [Khomeini] and revolution. If these figures are against the revolution so that the prisons are filled with them, who is the revolutionary? Calling the figures of this country anti-revolutionary and detaining them for sure will not solve the problems, but will complicate the issues and the problems even more.

Iran: The Latest Post-Election Death Sentences

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran reports:

....Motahareh Bahrami and Mohsen Daneshpour Moghaddam (husband and wife) and their son, Ahmad Daneshpour, together with two of their close friends, Rayhaneh Haj Ebrahim and Hadi Ghaemi (not related to the Campaign’s executive director of the same name) have been sentenced to death.

The family’s other son, Meysam Daneshpour, told the news-website Roozonline that his family members were arrested at their home following Ashura protests. In an interview with the Campaign, Meysam Daneshpour confirmed the execution sentences and said that his family did not have any recourse to an independent lawyer during the lower court’s prosecution. He also said family members had no access to detainees during the prosecution. “We did not have access to them [detainees] for two months, but now we can meet them on a regular weekly basis,” Meysam Daneshpour told the Campaign.

The Latest from Iran (21 April): Waiting for News

All five had court-appointed lawyers during the prosecution, who failed to inform the family of the execution sentence. Maysam Daneshpour told the Campaign that he had not received an official notification of the court hearing or death sentence.



During the appeals process, Mohammad Sharif, a prominent human rights lawyer, was able to represent the defendants and launch an appeal for Motahareh Bahrami, Rayhaneh Haj Ebrahim, and Hadi Ghaemi, and is under review at Branch 36. However, the appeals case for Mohsen and Ahmad Daneshpour had been sent to Branch 36 and already confirmed before Sharif could lodge a defense.

According to Meysam Daneshpour, intelligence agents arrested his parents, brother and their friend, Hajebrahimi, at the family’s home following Ashura protests on 27 December 2009, and not during a protest. Their lawyer Mohammad Sharif told the Campaign the defendants are charged with “deliberate cooperation with MKO” [Mujahedin-e-Khalq], “gathering and colluding against national security,” and “propaganda against the regime and in the interest of enemies.” The evidence supporting these charges included a trip by the parents to Iraq to visit another son, who is a member of MKO, sending videos and pictures to MKO, and participating in demonstrations....

In a similar post-Ashura case, 47-year-old teacher Abdolreza Ghanbari was charged with Moharebeh (enmity against God) and sentenced to death because of alleged emails and phone calls he had with MKO’s television broadcast abroad....

A lawyer who presents political prisoners told the Campaign that when authorities accuse political prisoners of being members of opposition groups such as MKO, it becomes impossible for Iranian media, human rights lawyers and defendants’ families to publicize these cases. “The Iranian media cannot touch on these cases, and lawyers like me will face severe difficulties to pursue our work if we advocate on behalf of such defendants regarding the nature of such affiliation,” the lawyer said. “This gives the authorities a free hand to use such punishments to terrify government critics and dissidents.”