Afghanistan: Death And The Prices We Pay for Intervention

Stephen Walt ,  writing on Foreign Policy about the recent Wikileaks release on the killing of civilians in Iraq in 2007 by US forces, touches on the idea that massacres like the one in the Wikileaks video are to be expected as part of the price of our interventionist policies:

Notice that I am not suggesting that the personnel involved failed to observe the proper "rules of engagement," or did not genuinely think that the individuals they were attacking were in fact armed. Rather, what bothers me is that they were clearly trying to operate within the rules, and still made a tragic error. It reminds us that this sort of mistake is inevitable in this sort of war, especially when we rely on overwhelming firepower to wage it. When we intervene in other countries, this is what we should expect.

Afghanistan: The Humanity Missing From Our Debate

It's an excellent point, but unfortunately it's too easily dismissed with the old "war is hell" cliche, as in this piece from Bouhammer:

Soldiers cannot get wrapped around every single life they are forced to take by virtue of being in combat. Soldiers (and I use soldiers generally describing all service-members), use dark humor and take it all in stride when they have to take lives. They can’t be effective by getting wrapped around the axle over taking human lives. So what you hear in this video is soldiers being soldiers. Nobody likes killing innocents, especially children and that is evident when the soldiers on the ground immediately start calling for a MEDEVAC to come get the wounded children.

Clearly not everyone sees killing people as an unacceptable price of war, particularly when it's soldiers doing it. Bouhammer simply took Walt's adviceand expected the horrible deaths as a natural result of the policy.

But there is a bit more to the price of war than just the loss of lives. So let's get a little cold-hearted for a moment and just accept that we need to murder these people as part of our strategy. Even if we're OK with that, the price of this strategy is still astronomically expensive.

Let's start just with the cost of transporting supplies to our troops. Not the supplies themselves, just the cost of transporting them. Tom Engelhardt explains:

Believe it or not, according to the Washington Post, the Defense Department has awarded a contract worth up to $360 million to the son of an Afghan cabinet minister to transport U.S. military supplies through some of the most dangerous parts of Afghanistan – and his company has no trucks. (He hires subcontractors who evidently pay off the Taliban as part of a large-scale protection racket that allows the supplies through unharmed.) This contract is, in turn, part of a $2.1 billion Host Nation Trucking contract whose recipients may be deeply involved in extortion and smuggling rackets, and over which the Pentagon reportedly exercises little oversight.

That'sthe US taxpayer, paying $2 billion just for trucks run by corrupt warlords and Taliban interlopers who will use them to smuggle  God knows what, possibly drugs or guns used to kill our soldiers. Lovely. But we have to pay that, because in order for our war strategy to work we've got to have soldiers in "some of the most dangerous parts of Afghanistan".

That's just for the trucks. How do we get the supplies on to those trucks? Well, they come through an airbase in Kyrgyzstan. The price for that is the usual support for a police state dictator and paying rent with US taxpayers' money. And that price is about to go up:

The news of ongoing unrest in the central Asian republic has been received with concern by Washington. The U.S. embassy in Bishkek said it was "deeply concerned" about "civil disturbances" in the country, in a statement released on Wednesday.

Saying that the situation in Kyrgyzstan was "still very fluid", John Kerry, the chair of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, expressed "regret for the loss of life" in the country and called on all sides to be "calm and refrain from violence". He called upon Kyrgyz parties to address the "underlying political, economic and social issues" in a "transparent process that brings stability and fundamental rights to all."

The U.S. State Department said that transport operations at the Manas military installation outside Bishkek have been "functioning normally." The U.S. military has used the base over the past several years as a staging post for its operations in Afghanistan. Despite the call for the base’s closure by opposition leaders reportedly in charge now, it remains to be seen whether the new government will take practical steps toward that end.

There are worries in the U.S. that the new opposition-led government may increase the rent for Manas base by renegotiating the terms of its agreement with the U.S., according to Foreign Policy’s Cable blog. Such a renegotiation, Cable said, may offer Russia an opportunity to influence an agreement over the base.

So our pet dictator was ousted in a violent uprising (I won't get into the awful stuff he did to deserve that here), and now the new opposition government is going to be raising the rent, if not evicting us completely. This also apparently gives Russia, who we desperately need in other matters like the Iranian nuclear file, a bargaining chip to play against the US.

But the cost goes beyond rent or trucks or anything you can put a dollar sign on. We're also actively working to subvert European democracies as part of the cost of our war:

A newly leaked CIA report prepared earlier this month analyzes how the U.S. Government can best manipulate public opinion in Germany and France -- in order to ensure that those countries continue to fight in Afghanistan. The Report celebrates the fact that the governments of those two nations continue to fight the war in defiance of overwhelming public opinion which opposes it -- so much for all the recent veneration of "consent of the governed" -- and it notes that this is possible due to lack of interest among their citizenry: "Public Apathy Enables Leaders to Ignore Voters," proclaims the title of one section.

We're paying the CIA to figure out how to screw over the voters of France and Germany, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same chicanery was happening in American politics. We're way past blowing taxpayer funds and into the territory of destroying our own national values. And for what? Who actually stands to benefit from all of these prices that we're paying?

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has slammed Western backers for the second time in a week, accusing the United States of interference, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.

In a private meeting with up to 70 Afghan lawmakers Saturday, Karzai also warned that the Taliban insurgency could become a legitimate resistance movement if foreign meddling in Afghan affairs continues, the Journal said, citing participants in the talks.

During the talks, Karzai, whose government is supported by billions of dollars of Western aid and 126,000 foreign troops fighting the Taliban, said he would be compelled to join the insurgency himself if the parliament does not back his bid to take over Afghanistan's electoral watchdog

That's right, we're paying a couple billion to Taliban warlords over here, propping up a police state over there, subverting democracies all over the place, and all for a corrupt mountebank like Karzai who wants to join the Taliban. And remember, I'm just picking examples out of thin air here; the cost of trucks, the Kyrgyz airbase, the CIA memos. These aren't even the total cost of the war which will wind up costing in the trillions.

Let's go back to Walt's piece:

It reminds us that this sort of mistake is inevitable in this sort of war, especially when we rely on overwhelming firepower to wage it. When we intervene in other countries, this is what we should expect.

See, Americans do expect these costs. They understand the cliches that "war is hell" and, indeed, expensive. But Americans do question why they're paying these costs only to prop up criminals like Karzai. Why are we paying billions to Taliban smugglers and police states and anti-democratic intelligence operations just to build a country for a guy who wants to join the Taliban? And he's the best thing we've got over there, we've been there for over 9 years, there is no one else.

Americans aren't opposing the cost of this war because they magically turned into pacifist hippies, they oppose the cost because we're paying for nothing over there. The best case scenario for the current price we're paying is we shell out trillions in deficit money, leave our soldiers to keep dying and killing innocent civilians for the next few years, subvert democracies worldwide, and destroy our own national values. All so Karzai will maybe not join the Taliban. Whatever goals we have in Afghanistan are simply not worth the price we're paying.

Josh Mull also writes for The Seminal and Rethink Afghanistan.

Mousavi: "Can Repression & Brute Force Solve Iran's Problems?"

Green Voice of Freedom summarises yesterday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party. Khordaad 88 also has a version:

Mousavi said that the Islamic Republic is facing problems “far deeper” than the widespread street protests, and cannot simply be resolved by putting an end to the protests.

“Our [Islamic] system is facing problems and its manifestation is not limited to the protests on the streets. The issues and problems are far deeper than this. One of them is that the state believes that by ending the street protests the protesters’ concerns are [also] resolved.”

The Latest from Iran: Dialogue or Conflict? (9 April)

The former prime minister said during the meeting that all the things that give legitimacy to a state are being “destroyed” in Iran. “Regimes normally use brute force (police, military and security forces) in the end to survive at any cost, but this is happening in our country and this is cause for great thought and attention,” he added.



Mousavi stressed the issue of lies and deceptions in all levels of the state. “The issue of lying has become our main concern and people have an objection towards it,” Mousavi said. “It has created mistrust amongst people towards the very base of this troublesome system and [has created doubts] towards their beliefs. Ethical issues, foreign policy, widespread corruption, etc, these have all created a sense of mistrust towards authorities and the state.”

“Is this problem solvable through repression and using brute force?” Mousavi asked.

During the meeting, the 2009 presidential candidate told the members of the reformist party, “The current situation has totally disrupted the flow of investment into the country because the future has become unpredictable unlike a society like that of Japan’s where the history of investment in certain families is more than two centuries old.”

Mousavi stated that the quick-return of interest [profit] had become the target in Iran because “there is no hope for the future and due to the current condition, no one is seeking to invest in production, in the long-term and in creating long-lasting jobs. Doesn’t the continuation of the current conditions mean more unemployment and poverty?”

Mousavi pointed out that despite the government’s massive spending; Iran was actually far behind in attracting foreign investment: “Is this not a catastrophe?”

On the issue of the current dispute between Ahmadinejad and the Parliament over the government’s proposed subsidy cuts, Mousavi said that the main source of dispute was about the government’s permission to spend around $1 million to buy votes in the rigged June election. Mousavi stated that the sense of mistrust towards the regime was “eating the system and making it void from within.”

According to the popular reformist politician, the misuse of religious and revolutionary values by authorities was playing an important role in portraying an unreal image of Islam, Imam Khomeini, and the Revolution.
Mousavi criticised the violent behaviour of security forces towards people who had recently gathered near the Orumiyeh Lake [in Azerbaijan] protesting the drying of the lakebed as a result of wrong government policies. Mousavi said, “Can all problems be resolved through [increasing] security and militarisation? They want to run the system with the rule of a certain group which is not possible.”

Mir-Hossein Mousavi told those present, that he would even accept the fraudulent results of the 2009 presidential election if the current rulers possessed a “relative efficiency” in running the country: “But we don’t even have this. For instance the government is unable to even carry out an [oil] project in Assaluyeh, and there is a problem in foreign policy every day and the situation is becoming more critical. The nuclear case in the past year is the best example for this.”

Mousavi said that even those currently in power in Iran lack any consensus and asked, “What does this show?”

Once again, Mousavi stressed the importance of the full implementation of the Iranian Constitution as a main demand of the Green Movement. “Many articles of this constitution which guarantee the rights of the people have been forgotten,” Mousavi said. He added:

If these are brought about well enough, an overall consensus will be reached within the movement. The base for any change in society is an idea and this idea has been created in our society and the will for change and amendment has become widespread. The people must be warned that the interests of a few in certain bodies is not allowing for them to easily surrender to the demands of the [Green] Movement and the nation.

On the future of the Green Movement and its activities, the wartime prime minister said, “We must bring about and redefine clear ideas and spread them through resisting and steadfastness and finding ways of working in a more organised way. The regime and state should be told that the least costly way for governing the country is the free activity of groups, media, associations and civil society, not confronting them.”

Mousavi called for more links between the different social groups inside the Green Movement and said that the goal of the movement was to create a better life for everyone, especially more impoverished and vulnerable sectors of society. He defended the rights of workers and teachers and acknowledged their important roles in Iranian life.

Mousavi also urged authorities to return to the Constitution, to remove the current security and military atmosphere in the country, and to open up. “If they do not choose this path, we will be forced to stand firm,” Mousavi said, expressing hope that authorities would return to the path of sanity as soon as possible:

We must stand firm until the issues and problems are resolved. The people have paid a heavy price during this period and they are used to paying such prices because they have great and righteous aspirations. You can see how prisoners have become the champions of the people and how they are welcomed [upon their freedom] and this is a sign of the ineffectiveness of these actions in confronting the [Green] Movement and the people’s demands.

Mousavi concluded with a call for the full usage of the capacity of political parties and an expansion of their activities. He also invited them to issue statements and analyses and to be in constant contact with the people for a “better tomorrow”.

Kyrgyzstan Analysis: What Brought On the Colourless Revolution? (Madlena)

Chavala Madlena writes for EA:

As the dust settled on Day 2 of the Kyrgyz "Tulip Revolution: 2.0", an eyewitness said: "We would not rush to name this victory: people are killed and injured, the aggressive and drunk people are walking around the cities, private houses and shops are being looted. The opposition forces seized the power and immediately started portfolio distribution. President Bakiyev disappeared. The south of the republic is waiting for continuation. Nothing is over yet."

Kyrgyzstan LiveBlog: Latest from the Uprising

With 75 people dead and more than 500 injured so far, it is difficult to believe that the Bakiyev Presidency was swept in during a relatively peaceful 'Tulip Revolution" just five years ago. However, ordinary Kyrgyz living with astronomical price increases in utilities and goods, fraudulent elections, and endemic corruption, five years is a long time.

Kurmanbek Bakiyev was swept in during a wave of protests that broke out in response to fraudulent elections in March 2005 under then-President Askar Akayev. This was quickly labelled the 'Tulip Revolution", a romanticised term insipired by the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the Rose Revolution in Georgia.


Akayev was former Politburo appointee and the poster-child for Central Asian nepotism. Bakiev soon secured 88% of the vote (though the standards for the initial July 2005 elections fell short of international standards) and was seen as a liberalising, unifying force, coming from the south of the country.

The "Tulip Revolution" soon proved as quixotic as it sounded, and the weak US response to an increasingly undemocratic Kyrgyzstan was accompanied by a growing dependence on the Manas airbase for the war in Afghanistan. Bakiev's Presidency was distinguished by increased powers for the executive, murders of several journalists and opposition politicians, and severe economic problems.

Much of the English-language reportage on the events in Kyrgyzstan has mainly focused on the old narrative of the tussle between Russia and the US for this "strategic" ex-Soviet Republic. But pointing to the Kremlin as the force behind this regime change ignores the other socio-economic and geopolitical factors at play in Bakiyev's disasterous turn as president.

Yet an American military presence in Russia's backyard has been a bone of diplomatic contention. Russia has been putting pressure on successive Kyrgyz governments since the Americans arrived in December 2001, establishing Manas as a back-up to the Karshi-Khanabad base in Uzbekistan at the start of the war in Afghanistan.

After a violent uprising in the Uzbek town of Andijan was put down by force in May 2005, Islam Karimov, the authoritarian president, expelled the Americans. Undersecretary of State R. Nicholas Burns had dared to suggest an international probe into the massacre of civilians who had been protesting poverty, repression, and corruption.

"We always think ahead. We'll be fine," said Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld . However, the US loss of the Karshi-Khanabad airbase ( "Stronghold Freedom") left Manas as the only location in Central Asia for support of operations in Afghanistan.

Over the past year, Bakiyev has been hedging his bets that US negotiations with Uzbekistan to re-instate a military base would collapse. This proved to be a correct assumption, and the Obama Administration not only agreed to the increase in rent from $17.4 to $60 million per year, but continued to turn a blind eye to the corruption running amok. Kevin Gash, former US Agency for International Development officer in Kabul and now resident in Bishkek, also emphasises the "lukewarm response" after the 2008 Kyrgyz presidential elections were labelled fraudulent by European observers.

Still, although the Kyrgyz legislature passed a bill to close the base in February 2009, the decision was reversed by June, and President Obama was sending letters of praise to Bakiyev. Manas has now become a symbol of corruption and broken promises and, from an American perspective, more precarious than ever.

So what about the Russians? The sudden duties Moscow slapped on oil imports, now up to $193.5 per ton for gasoline and diesel fuel, and the subsequent sky-rocketing of prices arguably pushed Bakiyev's government to the brink.

This is not the first time Bakiyev has faced protests; in 2006 and 2007 he faced opposition-led demonstrations against his constitutional changes. However, the recent price hikes in oil duties were another stick against him, wielded after Bakiyev failed to take the carrot of a $1.7 billion package to rescue a hydroelectric station in the south of the country, offered in return for an expulsion of the US.

Bakiyev may have thought he bought himself some time with the electorate and opposition by playing off the US and Russia against each other, however, the gains never translated into investment or infrastructure. The old Soviet system of blat (corruption) and nepotism reared its head when it was discovered that Bakiyev's son was given supply contracts with the Manas base last year.

Still, each of the expat Kyrgyz and Bishkek residents I have spoken to today say that there was little talk of Manas these last few days (except to speculate whether or not Bakiyev was hiding on it).

Unlike 2005, this uprising was not a bubbling up of demands for democratic freedoms. This was first and foremost a backlash against the economic situation and corruption.

What is confirmed now is that Kyrgyzstan has its first female President, Roza Otunbayeva. Her party, the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan, are demanding constitutional reform, a change in the tax system, an independent media and judiciary, and foreign investment, especially in agriculture.

The record of Otunbayeva, a former Foreign Minister, is mostly as a diplomat in the UK and US. Her newly formed cabinet is made up of key figures from other opposition parties, notably Almazbek Atambaev, Temir Sariev, Azimbek Beknazarov and Omurbek Tekebaev (an ardent opponent of former President Akayev).

Those with access to Internet continue to tweet and blog about continued looting, and rumours abound about the whereabouts of Bakiev. Otunbayeva has been stressing the need for calm and giving assurances, via her Twitter account as well as local media, that the interim government will be restoring order,

Neither Bakiyev or US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, Tatiana C. Gfoeller have Twitter accounts although the US Embassy in Bishkek does have a website. The homepage was not updated on Thursday, but a press release on Wednesday stated, "The embassy strongly endorses the April 6 statement of the Secretary General of the UN calling for restraint and immediate dialogue aimed at lowering tensions."

This was ollowed by the second important matter: "Milly and Macy's Parade Book Launch in Kyrgyz".

The business of the American Embassy in Bishkek may take a considerably more sober tone in days to come.

The Latest from Iran (8 April): Speeches, Visits, & Pictures

2155 GMT: Break in Service. Apologies for halt in updates today because of extended academic duties.

We'll be back early Friday morning to catch up with all the news and offer analysis.

1355 GMT: You Might Be Catty But Can You Debate Us? Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, a member of Parliament's Economic Committee has challenged the President to debate him and Ahmad Tavakoli, another high-profile critic of the subsidy/spending plan.

Earlier this week Tavakoli had issued a similar statement, saying Ahmadinejad must follow the Parliament's will.

1345 GMT: Catty Comment of Day. OK, here's the gossip from Rah-e-Sabz:

So key Iranian figures are with the Supreme Leader trying to resolve the Parliament-Ahmadinejad feud over subsidy cuts and revenues. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani says to Ahmadinejad that Parliament is expecting the Government to follow the law. The President is having none of it, however: he says he will not follow what Parliament says and that they "better tell this to the person they congratulated on the evening of the Presidential election".
Whoa. I think that is a reference to the long-standing tale that Larijani told Mir Hossein Mousavi on the evening of 12 June that he had indeed triumphed in the polls.

And that may be why Ayatollah Khamenei then said that in important decisions "we should be united".

NEW Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad and the “Non-Crowd” at Orumiyeh
Latest Iran Video: Neda Replaces IRI Flag at Embassy in Netherlands
The Latest from Iran (7 April): Ahmadinejad’s Support?

1340 GMT: Mousavi Meets the Reformists. Mujahedin of Islamic Revolution party members have met with Mir Hossein Mousavi. The take-away line from the meeting --- we hope to have more later --- is Mousavi's declaration that they "must stand up to the ruling group and return to the Constitution" of the Islamic Republic.


1315 GMT: The International Sanctions Dance. President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev two-stepping today after signing the treaty for reduction of nuclear arms....

Obama predicted there would be "strong, tough” sanctions against Iran in coming weeks, which he has to say to keep the all-out sanctions folks in Washington at bay. Medvedev expressed an openness to the idea, since he doesn't want to be rude to the US, as bargains are being stuck on other fronts. Then, however, he drew line: “smart sanctions” rather than sweeping sanctions,  and protection of Russia’s national interests (i.e., no measures that significantly cut Russian trade).

No change in this dance step....

1030 GMT: Converting the Bad News. Press TV notes the development, which we reported yesterday, that Russia's LUKOil is stopping imports to Iran but races to this assurance:

Speaking on April 3, the head of Iran's Committee for Transportation and Fuel Management said Iran was capable of becoming self-sufficient in gasoline production during the current Iranian year (ending March 20, 2011).

"Iran's gasoline consumption stands at 62 million liters (16.38 million US gallons) per day, of which 45 million liters (11.89 million US gallons) are produced domestically," said Mohammad Rouyanian.

0830 GMT: We have posted a purported video of the audience at the Ahmadinejad speech in northwest Iran yesterday.

0700 GMT: Look Over There! The US is Doomed! Continuing his attempt to focus Iranian eyes on the international front, President Ahmadinejad declared Wednesday night, "The US is so bogged down in a quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan that it is doomed to be defeated whether it stays or escapes."

0525 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More than 3,500 people, including international journalists, writers, and activists have written to the Supreme Leader, asking him to release all journalists, writers, and bloggers currently imprisoned in Iran. The initiative was organised by Canadian Journalists for Free Expression.

RAHANA reports that detained student activist Peyman Aref was taken to Modarres Hospital in Tehran after he suffered a heart attack. EA also has reliable information that reformist leader Abbas Mirza Aboutalebi has suffered a heart attack.

Student activist Behrooz Javid Tehrani is in the eighth day of a hunger strike.

University lecturer Rahmatollah Bastani, arrested on 28 March during the funeral of Ayatollah Montazeri’s wife in Qom, has been released on $50,000 bail. Journalist Borumand Rostami of Bistoon has been released on $20,000 bail

0520 GMT: Strange Bedfellows. Iranian state media eagerly embraces former Bush Administration official John Bolton, which may seem a bit unusual since Bolton has called for airstrikes against Tehran. The reason? Bolton bolsters the Iranian Government's line, "New Sanctions Won't Work". (Press TV doesn't mention that Bolton is putting out this message to justify military action.)

0510 GMT: A Very Different Picture and Signal. The image is of Mehdi Karroubi visiting the reformist leader Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, still on temporary release from his detention. Karroubi also saw the mother of Sohrab Arabi, killed 15 June by Iranian security forces.





0500 GMT: Thursday begins with a look at contrasting images and signals. As we noted last night, President Ahmadinejad has tried to turn a visit to Azerbaijan in northwestern Iran into a show of support for his Government, but the pictures are conflicting, to say the least. Fars News uses close-up shots at the stadium and images of crowds rushing Ahmadinejad's car en route to claim a large, enthusiastic turnout. Other pictures circulating on the Internet are not so positive:



An EA correspondent offers an explanation:

The Fars photos do not disprove the set on the Internet. Look at the stadium pictures, all close-ups of the front of the crowd. I have been to Ahmadinejad events --- the people you see are right at the front. There is nothing between them and the President

The crowd mobbing the car, apparently en route to the stadium could be edited. It counts for nothing. All the people behind could be easily photo shopped.

Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad and the "Non-Crowd" at Orumiyeh

Following the conflicting photographs over the size of the audience for President Ahmadinejad's speech in northwest Iran on Wednesday (see our LiveBlogs for 7 and 8 April), a purported video from the event:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Am1StUq1Us&playnext_from=TL&videos=p4uiNRqCcig&feature=sub[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (8 April): Speeches, Visits, & Pictures