The Latest from Iran (1 April): Out Like a Lamb?

1905 GMT: Head of Judiciary Gets Told Off in Qom. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, visited leading clerics in Qom today, including Ayatollahs Safi Golpaygani, Makarem Shirazi, and Shabiri Zanjani, and he had a bit of a tough time.

Safi Golpaygani declared that even one day's delay in releasing detainees is not acceptable in Islam. He then asserted:

If external forces interfere in the judiciary and influence the judges and they fail to follow the truth in their sentencing, the independence of the judiciary will be compromised....All sentencing and imprisonments should follow the basic laws of Islam

1805 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mehdi Karroubi has visited the family of detained film director Jafar Panahi.

1800 GMT: Putting the Supreme Leader to a Referendum? Payvand has an even stronger interpretation of Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi's statement (see 1520 GMT) that Islamic rule is subject to the will of the people:

If the Imam were alive today and some people were to tell him that due to post-Revolution generational developments in society, the majority are probably no longer in favour of "Velayat Faghih" and we want to gauge the support of people at this time, the Imam would have agreed with a referendum.

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The Latest from Iran (31 March): Nuclear Chatter & Political Prisoners

1745 GMT: The Nuclear Line. Still no  significant word out of China over today's meetings with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, but Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has put out a holding statement. According to Press TV, Mottaki, speaking in Algeria, said Tehran is still ready to swap its low enriched uranium for higher enriched fuel under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).


However, Mottaki did not make clear --- at least in the Press TV report --- if "within the framework of its proposed initiatives" had to be a swap inside Iran or could be in an outside country.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, the son of Hossein Abdeh-Tabrizi, former secretary-general of Tehran Stock Exchange and director of the banned newspaper Sarmayeh, has been detained for the last three months with no news about his status or possible charges.

Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, is a Ph.D. student in Political Science at Durham University in Britain, had returned to Iran to visit his family, but his passport was confiscated upon his arrival at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport and he was arrested a few days later.

1530 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have visited the family of Shiva Nazar Ahari, the journalist and human rights activist detained since December.

1520 GMT: Clerical Interventions. Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi has declared that Islam should not be installed with force and dictatorship. Today (12 Farvardin) should be a day of all Iranians and all ethnic and religious minorities.

Hojatoleslam Rasul Montajabnia, the Vice President of the reformist Etemade Melli party, says that a leadership without a majority vote cannot survive. He added that the late Ayatollah Khomeini never promoted a rulership minus the people.

1245 GMT: Discussing Iran. Since yesterday afternoon, I have been in a conversation with the readers of the Race for Iran blog over political and legal issues, from the June election to protests to the place of "rights" in the crisis. After clearing away the white noise of those who post in denunciation rather than discussion, there are some interesting exchanges with those who take the position that the Ahmadinejad Government is legitimate and should be engaged by the Obama Administration.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reporters Without Borders has issued a statement:

The lives of many journalists are now in danger. Emadoldin Baghi, Badrolssadat Mofidi, Mehdi Mahmudian and Mohammad Sadegh Kabovand are seriously ill. We call for their unconditional and definitive release. We appeal to the Iranian authorities to act so that these lives are no longer at risk. We will hold them responsible for any misfortune.

1030 GMT: Sanctions 2+2=?. So, on the one hand, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is in China for talks (see 0500 GMT) and, on the other, Reuters is spinning Beijing's acceptance of a path to tougher sanctions:

China has agreed to serious negotiations with Western powers about imposing new sanctions on Iran and President Hu Jintao will attend a multi-nation summit on nuclear security in Washington this month, officials said....The agreement to discuss sanctions marked a significant shift by China after months of fending off Western nations' demands for concerted pressure on Tehran.

Personally, I think it's too early to make a call on China's next steps. For the moment, it's all messages to all people, as in this from the Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokesman (paraded hopefully by Iran's state media): "On the Iranian nuclear issue, China will continue to endeavor toward a peaceful resolution."

0640 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Mohsen Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has denied allegations that he has a villa in Switzerland.

0635 GMT: Nowruz Visits. Former Deputy Minister of Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh, still on his temporary release from Evin Prison, and his family paid a visit to former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was also a long-time post-election detainee, and his family.


0630 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz prints the collage of journalist Azar Mansouri, made with cardboard and toothpaste while she was detained in Evin Prison.

0615 GMT: And The Reformists Speak. The pro-Larijani Khabar Online also, for the second time in recent weeks, discussed politics with reformist Shahrbanou Amani. Amani assserted that "hardliners" should create favourable conditions for political competition, because free parties are necessary for a developed society. Amanid added that reformists should regrtoup and take advantage from the promises of the "hardliners", demanding that they be fulfilled.

0555 GMT: The Conservative Challenge. Speaking to Khabar Online, conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri Mojtaba Shakeri has declared that "fundamentalists" have to prove they are capable of ruling Iran.

0545 GMT: The Nuclear Issue. While we await news from China, Rah-e-Sabz offers an overview of the current situation on Iran's nuclear progamme and international manoeuvres over uranium enrichment and sanctions.



0515 GMT: Media Nuclear Fever. Yet another example of a prominent newspaper losing perspective on the Iranian nuclear issue....

The Guardian of London, framing an interview with the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, headlines, "Cautious reports on Tehran nuclear programme 'were framed to avoid war'".

Dramatic stuff. Only problem? Nowhere in the article does an El Baradei quote indicate that he altered reports for political reasons. Here's what he actually says:

We are a technical organisation totally embedded in a political setting and we have to be aware of the background and political implications of our work....

"When I was working at the agency we would literally go through 30 drafts or so of each report before it was ready, because I knew every word could be used politically and in a very subjective way. Every word was weighed to make sure that it was immune from being abused, and I always wanted to make sure that we were not overstating or understating, but rather just stating the facts....

I think the tone was set by me, that's true. But all the facts were in every report, unvarnished.

0505 GMT: The Subsidy Fight. Member of Parliament Mohammad Kosari has repeated his compromise plan to resolve the dispute between the Majlis and the President over subsidy cuts and spending. Invoking the Supreme Leader's recent remarks "asking the government to adhere to law and the Majlis to help the administration", Kosari has suggested an extra $30 billion for Ahmadinejad, the halfway point between the $20 billion authorised by the Parliament and the $40 billion sought by the President.

0500 GMT: Completing the saying, the title today is a bookend to that of 1 March, "In Like a Lion?", but it seems appropriate as we come to the end of the Nowruz holiday. We'll be watching to see if the quiet phase in Iranian politics continues or if there is a resumption of manoeuvres, amongst the opposition, the Rafsanjani camp, and conservative challengers to the Government.

For the moment, however, the nuclear issue still holds the headlines. In what looks to be a significant (and quickly-planned) trip, Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, is in China today. Take your pick of speculations on the motive: the Iranians are approaching Beijing with a request to hold off on sanctions and/or to put forth a deal for uranium enrichment, the Chinese have summoned a representative from Tehran to put out a message. No hint in Iranian state media yet of developments.

War on Terror Alert: Files of British Muslim Students Given to US Agencies

Syma Mohammed and Robert Verkaik report in The Independent of London:

Personal information concerning the private lives of almost 1,000 British Muslim university students [at University College London] is to be shared with US intelligence agencies in the wake of the Detroit bomb scare.

The disclosure has outraged Muslim groups and students who are not involved in extremism but have been targeted by police and now fear that their names will appear on international terrorist watch lists. So far, the homes of more than 50 of the students have been visited by police officers, but nobody has been arrested. The case has raised concerns about how the police use the data of innocent people and calls into question the heavy-handed treatment of Muslim students by UK security agencies.


This week, MPs criticised the Government's key policies on countering extremism which they said were alienating Muslim communities.

Last year, The Independent reported on the alleged harassment of young Muslims by the police and security service, MI5, whose officers had tried to recruit them as spies. In the latest case, details of students from University College London (UCL) were handed over to police by the university's student union, after detectives visited the campus in early January 2010 during their continuing investigation into the attempted Christmas Day bombing in Detroit by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. Abdulmutallab studied engineering at UCL in 2005-08, and was president of the UCL Islamic Society in 2006-07.

Police had first approached UCL's Islamic Society, which refused to hand over the information. Mojeed Adams-Mogaji, the society's president, said: "I was concerned about what they would do with the data. At another meeting with the Metropolitan Police, they told us they would keep it for seven years and would share the data with other intelligence agencies if requested. Obviously, I'm very concerned with what they plan to do with this information."

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Iraq: The Latest Political Moves

The Majlis political blog offers a round-up of the latest manoeuvres for power after Iraq's inconclusive election:

The horse-trading continues in Iraq: Prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is trying to cement a possible merger with the Iraqi National Alliance [predominantly "religious" Shi'a), but the Sadrist movement seems reluctant; and [former Prime Minister] Iyad Allawi is trying to attract Kurdish support, but the Kurds seem reluctant.

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There's a lot to keep track of, so we've rounded up a bullet-point list of the latest political maneuverings. We'll do similar lists in the coming days as they're needed.



*Allawi met with Iraqi president Jalal Talabani. Allawi is trying to drum up Kurdish support -- Talabani is a Kurd -- but that will be a difficult slog: Many Kurds distrust Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition, not because of Allawi himself, but because of the staunch Arab nationalism of some coalition partners (particularly the al-Hadba party).

Kurds worry that they will undermine their own interests by joining Iraqiyya: "For us, dealing with al-Iraqiya List is impossible," Feryad Rawanduzi, a senior Kurdish official from President Talabani's party, told the Kurdish Peyamner news agency. "There are some groups within al-Iraqiya List whose agenda and way of thinking is different from us."

*Maliki met with [former Prime Minister] Ibrahim Jaafari, the head of the National Reform Trend, a member of the Iraqi National Alliance.

There's a lot of bad blood between the two men: Maliki succeeded Jaafari as the head of the Dawa party, and Jaafari didn't leave voluntarily. But they seem to be burying the hatchet (Maliki is trying to craft a merger with the INA, remember), which has the Sunni Arab world once again fretting about Iran's influence.

*Moqtada al-Sadr asked his supporters to vote on whether the Sadrist movement should back Allawi or Maliki (or a third party). Sources close to Sadr say he wants Allawi to play an important role(عربي) in the next government; a referendum could give Sadr some political cover to split from his colleagues in the INA and back Allawi.

*Allawi's aides met with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shi'ite cleric, and asked him to issue an interpretation of article 76 of the Iraqi constitution, which deals with the formation of a new government. Iraq's Federal Supreme Court (which may not even have jurisdiction over the issue) ruled last week that article 76 allows either Maliki or Allawi to form the next government.

Afghanistan: US Night Raids v. "Hearts and Minds"? (Porter)

Gareth Porter writes for Inter Press Service:

General Stanley McChrystal has recently acquired the image of a master strategist of the population- sensitive counterinsurgency, reducing civilian casualties from airstrikes and insisting that troops avoid firing when civilians might be hit during the recent offensive in Helmand Province. One recent press story even referred to a "McChrystal Doctrine" that focuses on "winning over civilians rather than killing insurgents".

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But there is a glaring contradiction between McChrystal's new counterinsurgency credentials and his actual policy toward the politically explosive issue of night raids on private homes by Special Operations Forces (SOF) units targeting suspected Taliban.


Since he took over as top commander in Afghanistan, McChrystal has not only refused to curb those raids but has increased them dramatically. And even after they triggered a new round of angry protests from villagers, students and Afghan President Hamid Karzai himself, he has given no signal of reducing his support for them.

Two moves by McChrystal last year reveal his strong commitment to night raids as a tactic. After becoming commander of NATO and U.S. forces last May, he approved a more than fourfold increase in those operations, from 20 in May to 90 in November, according to a report in the Los Angeles Times on 16 December. One of McChrystal's spokesmen, Lt. Col. Tadd Sholtis, acknowledged to IPS that the level of night raids during that period has reflected McChrystal's guidance.

Then McChrystal deliberately protected night raids from political pressures to reduce or even stop them altogether. In his "initial assessment" last August, he devoted an entire annex to the subject of civilian casualties and collateral damage, but made no mention night raids as a problem in that regard.

As a result of McChrystal's decisions, civilian deaths from night raids have spiked, even as those from air strikes were being reduced. According to United Nations and Afghan government estimates, night raids caused more than half of the nearly 600 civilian deaths attributable to coalition forces in 2009.

Those raids, which also violate the sanctity of the Afghan home, have become the primary Afghan grievance against the U.S. military. As long ago as May 2007, Carlotta Gall and David Sanger described in The New York Times how night raids had provoked an entire village in Herat province to become so angry with the U.S. military that men began carrying out military operations against it.

By 2008, the targets of the SOF raids had shifted from higher-level and mid-level al Qaeda and Taliban officials to low-level insurgents, especially those working on manufacturing and planting IEDs, the organization's main form of attack against foreign military personnel. That shift accelerated as the number of raids ballooned under McChrystal.

The inevitable botched raids killing large numbers of civilians brought a new wave of protests. After a December 2009 raid killed at least 12 civilians in Laghman province, according to an investigation by the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, students at Nangarhar University blocked the highway between Jalalabad and Kabul for several hours.

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