Iran: The Clerical Challenge Continues (Shahryar)

Josh Shahryar writes for EA:

As the Green Movement reconsiders its strategy of opposition to the government, Iranian clerics are also continuing their opposition to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader. Some of the strongest sentiments were shown yesterday by Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi, as Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani joined in for a jab at Khamenei Inc.

In the first attack, the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, was harshly rebuked on his stance over post-election detentions by Golpayegani. Larijani, who is meeting prominent clerics in Qom, was told that even one day's delay in the release of detainees was against Islamic law.


Radio Zameneh reports that Golapyegani told Larijani...

...the delays in processing charges and maintained that the judiciary must do its utmost to avoid any delays in processing people's files. If external forces interfere in the judiciary and influence the judges and they fail to follow the truth in their sentencing, the independence of the judiciary will be compromised.

Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani insisted that recent attempts at resolving the problems of the judiciary and aligning it with the provisions of Islam had been unacceptable. He maintained, "All sentencing and imprisonments should follow the basic laws of Islam."

Golpayegani may sound like he is a reformist, but this is the same cleric that issued a fatwa against the appointment of women as provincial governors. He is firmly on the side of the Green Movement, however, calling the Presidential election "a grand lie".

Further pressure yesterday came from Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi. Speaking to the Iranian Labor News Agency --- an outlet considered a channel for Hashemi Rafsanjani --- Tabrizi said that "the issue of leadership of a senior cleric, referred to as 'velayat-e-faqih' in the Islamic Republic's Constitution can be very well put to a referendum and even the late leader of the 1979 Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini would have agreed with such a referendum".

Payvand adds:

[Mousavi Tabrizi] stressed that Islam cannot be established on dictatorship and it has to be based on the will of the people....The late founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, believed in 'velayat-e-faqih', [but] from a political standpoint he believed that it must be the choice of the people....If the Imam were alive today and some people were to tell him that due to post-Revolution generational developments in society, the majority are probably no longer in favour of 'velayat-e-faqih', and we want to gauge the support of people at this time, the Imam would have agreed with a referendum.

Mousavi Tabrizi is the secretary-general of the Assembly of Teachers and Researchers of Qom, which is considered close to the reformist movement. After the election, Mousavi-Tabrizi praised Rafsanjani's sermon of 17 July which called for release of detainees and declared that the Guardian Council was biased with respect to the elections and that people had a right to demonstrate.

What is evident from these statements is that the Green Movement continues to enjoy support from high-ranking clerics. Golapyegani is on par in terms of experience with Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, who is currently filling the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's void in opposition to the Government. Both of them are higher in rank than Khamenei. Tabrizi himself is of no less stature.

As the Green Movement transforms itself, it seems thatvtheir cause will be important to clerics. The government will have to continue to fight on three fronts to stop itself from falling from the public's favor: the Green Movement, the international community, and the religious leaders who are supposedly the foundation of the Islamic Republic.

The Latest from Iran (2 April): Slipping By

1420 GMT: Obama Talks the Tough Talk. Continuing the public approach of a push for international sanctions, President Obama has told a US television network, "I have said before that we don't take any options off the table, and we're going to continue to ratchet up the pressure and examine how they respond. But we're going to do so with a unified international community -- that puts us in a much stronger position."

NEW Iran: The Clerical Challenge Continues (Shahryar)
NEW The Great Nuclear Race: Google v. Iran (Arrington)
The Latest from Iran (1 April): Out Like a Lamb?

At the same time, note how Obama carefully distinguishes himself from the line of other Washington talking heads demanding action because Iran is on the verge of military nuclear capability:

All the evidence indicates that the Iranians are trying to develop the capacity to develop nuclear weapons (emphasis added). They might decide that, once they have that capacity that they'd hold off right at the edge -- in order not to incur -- more sanctions.

But, if they've got nuclear weapons-building capacity -- and they are flouting international resolutions, that creates huge destabilizing effects in the region and will trigger an arms race in the Middle East that is bad for US national security but is also bad for the entire world.

1400 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani giving it his best, even though a lot of folks on 13 Bedar are more concerned with a day out with the family. He's going with "Iran has a special place in the Islamic family of nations" and "we are not seeking nuclear weapons but the malicious propaganda of Iran's enemies will occur all the way through this process".

1115 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims that families of human rights activists in detention are being constantly harassed by security forces.

The website also reports that film director Jafar Panahi is enduring "dire conditions" in Evin Prison and his lawyer is being denied access to his file.

1105 GMT: Now Let's See What China Says (and Does). Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, has struck his pose after discussions with the Chinese, saying that Iran and China "agreed that tools such as sanctions have lost their effectiveness".

Jalili wasn't so certain, however, that Beijing would put out that same line --- "It's up to China to answer that" --- and the Chinese response so far is limited to a call for "flexibility" in dealing with Iran.

1100 GMT: We've posted a new analysis from Josh Shahryar, "The Clerical Challenge Continues".

1015 GMT: Economy Watch. RAHANA claims, "Workers at the Ahvaz Pipe Factory have not received their wages for over a year. Additionally, upon returning to work after the Nowrooz holidays, close to 300 of them were handed their pink slips."

1000 GMT: India, Iran, and Economy Watch. Conflicting news on India's approach to Tehran: Green Voice of Freedom is claiming confirmation of earlier reports that India's Reliance Industries will not renew a contract to import crude oil from Iran.

Juan Cole, however, writes:

New Delhi just yesterday broached reviving a plan to bring natural gas from Iran through Pakistan and thence to India. The $8 billion plan has been in limbo for two or three years. First, the US pressured the Asian Development Bank not to underwrite the project, raising the question of where the $8 bn. will come from. Then, there were ethnic disturbances by Baluch tribesmen in the area through which the pipeline would run, raising questions about how secure it would be (a question you would want answered before sinking $8 bn. into it) Finally, Iran asked for an unrealistically high price for the natural gas.

But [now] Pakistan is pledging to ensure security for the pipeline.

0830 GMT: Controlling the Students. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters passes on the news that five members of the Council to Defend the Right to Education, formed by "starred" (monitored) and banned university students in 2007, remain in prison, some of them facing long sentences.

The Council's latest statement asserts, “We testify before the Iranian people that our friends have done nothing but demand for their rights; all the allegations against them are baseless. The accusations are revenge the enemies of freedom are taking against starred students."

The five are Zia Nabavi, detained on 15 June and sentenced to 15 years and 74 lashes; Majid Dorri, arrested on 9 July and sentenced to 11 years; Mahdieh Golroo and Shiva Nazar Ahari, imprisoned in December; and Payman Aref, detained in June and sent back to prison in March, serving one year and taking 74 lashes.

0745 GMT: The Iran-China Talks. More indications that Beijing is maintaining a cautious position on Iran's nuclear programme (see 0520 GMT). Khabar Online notes the discussions with Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili but also considers Chinese moves towards the US-led "5+1" position on sanctions.

0540 GMT: Slipping By? An EA reader has noted that the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has linked the anniversary of the Republic to a call for a public voice today, via a video and Ayatollah Khomeini's statement on 1 February 1979:

Everyone is entitled to choose his or her destiny. How can our ancestors be the deciders for us? How can those who were around 80 to 100 years ago determine the destiny of a nation that would be born in future? This is a nation that its destiny should be determined by itself and at this time is saying that we do not want this king.

0520 GMT: Yesterday was the 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic, confirmed by a public vote in which 98.2 percent supported the Republic and a new Constitution. The day slipped by, however, with little fanfare: no prominent Government statements, no opposition demonstrations, indeed little of note on the domestic front.

Indeed, much of the chatter looked forward to today, Sizdah Bedar, the 13th day of the New Year and the last day of Nowruz celebrations. It literally translates as "get out [outside] of the 13th", referring to the invocation to be outside with family enjoying nature. Pedestrian has a humourous look, with mixed memories, at the occasion.

The only tribute we picked up to the Republic's formation was an indirect one: 31 years after the public issued its verdict on its system of rule, Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini, were he still alive, would support another referendum on the Islamic leadership, including velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority).

Away from the lack of ceremony yesterday, Baha'i and women's rights activist Dorsa Sobhani has been released from solitary confinement. Sobhani was arrested on 7 March after the family home was raided five days earlier.

On the international front, Barack Obama has tried to counter the trip of Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, to Beijing with a call to Chinese leader Hu Jintao. Obama said, according to the White House, that Hu's attendance at a summit on nuclear security Washington later this month would be an "important opportunity for them to address their shared interest in stopping nuclear proliferation and protecting against nuclear terrorism".

We're still looking for any sign of an outcome from the Jalili trip. It is the lead story for the Islamic Republic News Agency, but the lengthy article has little more than the superficial public statements: Jalili with "Iran's approach is that people benefit from peaceful nuclear energy" and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declaring that the relationship between the two countries is very important.

The Great Nuclear Race: Google v. Iran (Arrington)

Looks like Tehran has a competitor in the pursuit of uranium enrichment. Yesterday Michael Arrington of TechCrunch reported that Google, which to our knowledge is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and is not yet subject to international sanctions, is seeking to join the Axis of Very Dangerous Forces Who May or May Not Pop Up in a Presidential Speech:

Google has acquired a company that has created a new process for highly efficient isotope separation, we’ve confirmed from multiple sources. The primary use of this technology, say experts we’ve spoken with, is uranium enrichment.

Enriched uranium is a necessary ingredient in the creation of nuclear energy, and one source we’ve spoken with at Google says that this is part of the Google Green Initiative. The company will use the new technology to enable it to design and possibly build small, mobile and highly efficient nuclear power generators. “Google has already begun building an enrichment plant,” says a high ranking IAEA source.



As GreenBeat points out, “Google finally decided to launch a dedicated unit of the company for designing and building its own solar panels, wind turbines, energy efficiency devices, etc. So far, its green efforts have been pursued by separate projects within the company. Nuclear is an obvious next step for the company.”

GreenBeat first broke the story (first titled Google Has A Big Alternate Energy Announcement Forthcoming) after seeing multiple tweets about the impending announcement.

But other sources we’ve spoken with say Google has no real intention of pursuing nuclear energy, despite the fact that the company has promoted the use of alternate energy sources for years.

Of particular concern is the fact that the company Google acquired is based outside of the U.S., and little is known about the new enrichment technology they’ve developed.

Nuclear power generation is a highly regulated industry. And enriched uranium is a particularly sensitive topic and creation and distribution of the substance is highly controlled.

Enriched uranium can also be used for nuclear weapons production, which is why the industry is so highly regulated.

Says one source: “The story Google is putting out there is that the new technology will be built for clean energy production. But all of the research and development they’re doing in this area is being conducted outside of the U.S., and the enrichment facility is also outside of the U.S.”

And more chillingly: “It would be trivial for anyone with this technology to build a nuclear weapon.”

Google, which has been shaken by its inability to counter Chinese censorship and hacking efforts, may be engaging in enrichment research as part of a new effort to simply protect itself from outside threats.

One source pointed out that if Google were its own country, its revenues would place it at 74th on the list of countries sorted by gross domestic product: “The U.S. government clearly won’t protect Google from China, so Google is taking the logical step of protecting itself with a physical deterrent.”

To be clear, most of this is speculation. All we’ve confirmed is that Google has acquired a company with a new enrichment process and that they have begun researching small, nuclear portable generators. But there is real evidence here that Google may be working on something much more sinister to counter the China threat. More as this develops.

MENA House: Changing of the President in Egypt?

EA is pleased to announce a new feature, "MENA (Middle East-North Africa) House". Complementing Ali Yenidunya's "Middle East Inside Line", MENA House will give you the latest on politics and society from Cairo through Tripoli to Casablanca.



In the first entry, Christina Baghdady takes a look at political developments that raise the prospect of change in the Egyptian system:

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Tension; Palestinian State by 2011?; Israel's Hebron Show

According to state media reports, President Hosni Mubarak has returned to Egypt after surgery at Heidelberg Hospital in Germany three weeks ago. On Saturday, dozens of senior officials, including the newly-appointed top Sunni cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, Coptic Orthodox Pope Shenouda III, and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman welcomed the President and his wife Suzanne in the Red Sea resort of Sharm El Sheikh.


State reports claim that Mubarak was undergoing an operation to remove his gall bladder and remove a "benign" tumour of his duodenum. However, commentators are debating whether it is something more serious, giving the length of time that Mubarak spent in hospital.

While Mubarak was away from the motherland, there was an air of anxiety, "What will happen if Mubarak does not return?" Abdel Aziz Husseini, spokesman for the protest movement Kefaya, told Reuters, "Egypt is witnessing a period of instability and the president's absence, especially for health reasons and surgery, has heightened people's worries."

Now that Mubarak is back on home turf, the question is "What will happen next?" The President has neither confirmed nor denied whether he will be running for a sixth term, and little light has been shed on other potnential candidates. Whilst critics of the Mubarak regime claim that his son, Gamal,is being groomed to be the future President of Egypt, Gamal has repeatedly and vehemently denied such claims.

Now an underdog candidate has entered the limelight: Mohammed El Baradei, founder of the pro-reform coalition, the National Association for Change (NAC), Nobel Peace Prize winner, and former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency. He received a hero’s welcome at the airport on his return to Egypt and appeared to have galvanised a stale opposition movement. However, he has said he would only run for the top job if there were changes in the Constitution with the amendment of election regulations.

El Baradei is showing signs of flexing his political muscles with a sustainable and legitimate opposition party. According to Hamdi Qandil, the media spokesman for the pro-constitutional reform movement, El Baradei is currently looking for an office in downtown Cairo to host meetings with politicians and activists. The aim of this: to unite all opposition, including the Muslim Brotherhood.

On 31 March, Ikhwan Web (the official Muslim Brotherhood website) stated that El Baradei and Saad el Katatni, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood’s parliamentarian bloc, met and came to an agreement that political change was needed to enact widespread reforms. In a recent interview Muslim Brotherhood leader Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh claimed that it is "haram" (forbidden) to vote for the National Democratic Party (NDP), the President’s political party. He said that the Brotherhood is a popular and political force in a corrupt and tyrannical atmosphere and a political society that deals with everyone through security forces.

EA Science Alert: The Discovery of the Flying Penguins

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