Afghanistan Follow-Up: Karzai Pulls Back from Confrontation with US?

The latest from a week of manoeuvres and power politics between the US Government, including President Obama, and Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai....

The public spin is that Karzai has pulled back from his criticism of Washington and the United Nations on Thursday. Karzai's attack on Western manipulaton of last summer's Afghanistan Presidential election came only four days after Obama had flown to Kabul, reportedly to chide Karzai over corruption and mismanagement and to tell the President to get himself and his house in order.

Afghanistan: Karzai’s Middle-Finger Reply to the US

Karzai's spokesman said on Friday that the President had spoken to USSecretary of State Hillary Clinton by telephone. Waheed Omer reported, "President Karzai said the Afghan people and Afghan government were grateful for the support and sacrifice of the international community for peace in Afghanistan and the world."


Omer added parts of Karzai's remarks had been misunderstood: "Obviously there is a difference of opinion on certain issues between Afghanistan and its international partners, but the president wanted the international community to pay attention to the concerns of the Afghan people and the Afghan government."

Not exactly a surprising move: after all, Karzai and the US Government are still political allies in the contest against the Afghan insurgency, so it really wouldn't do to have a public split on the verge of an impending US-led military offensive. At the same time, Karzai is not going to give any appearance of caving into Washington's demands. So if there is any change in his political management, the President will present it as his idea for a better Afghanistan.

Iraq Latest: Moqtada al-Sadr Makes A Move

Amidst the continuing power plays over who will lead the next Iraq Government, almost a month after the 7 March election, the Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr took over the headlines on Friday, as his party held a referendum over whom they would support as Iraqi Prime Minister. (The vote was open to all Iraqis, not just Sadrists.)

Iraq: The Latest Political Moves

Sadr's party won 40 seats in the 325-member Iraqi Parliament, compared to the 91 of the Iraqqiya list headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and the 89 of current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law list. That does not make the Sadrists "a kingmaker", as The New York Times is at pains to point out. However, it does mark a notable shift of power: within the Iraqi National Alliance list of "religious Shia" groups, the Sadrists overtooked the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which had been the dominant party.


The effect in the non-Iraqi media has been marked. Only a few days ago, some reporters were still stuck in the misleading narrative that Allawi "won" because Iraqqiya had a narrow plurality of seats. That was plainly not the case, given the difficulties for Allawi in putting together a coalition of 163 seats. At the same time, many journalists were making the mistake of writing out the Iraqi National Alliance as the "third-place" group.

Now the pendulum has swung. The simple maths --- 91+ the 70 of the INA puts Allawi on the verge of a majority in Parliament; same for Maliki with 89+70 --- highlight that INA has a top-table seat in a deal, and Sadr is trying, with the weight of the 7 March result behind him, to be the leading INA representative.

So Friday's move for a referendum is politically significant. Unless Maliki and Allawi can resolve their personal differences and deep animosities between their two lists to forge a "grand coalition", Sadr will get what he has long sought: a place inside the Iraqi tent of power.

Mark the change, especially for those who see Iraq as a continuing narrative of American power. Less than six years ago, US officials were putting out orders to capture or kill the upstart cleric Sadr; less than two years ago, the US military was pushing and joining Maliki and Iraqi forces to "crush" the Sadrists.

This is now, first and foremost, an Iraqi story. And I suspect there are many chapters to come.

MENA House: Arab League Weakness; Egypt Cultural Corner; Fun Football Facts

Christina Baghdady is in the MENA House:

Arab League Extraordinaire: Yet again, the Arab leaders have failed to agree. The question on this occasion is, "What have they failed to agree on?"

Well, it's whether the Palestinians should resume their peace talks with Israel. The hot-blooded Arab League has once again lived up to its reputation of talking too much, flexing their muscles against superpowers, but not achieving very much.

MENA House: Changing of the President in Egypt?

The 22nd Arab summit was held in the Libyan city of Sirte on 27-28 March. Moussa Kossa, Secretary to Libya’s People’s Committee of Foreign Liaison and International Coorporation, urged Arab states in his opening statement to "take action to lift the siege imposed on the Palestinian people and to salvage Jerusalem”, in a reference to ongoing efforts by Israel to "Judaize" the city.



Some analysts, however, downplayed the Arab threat to end support of negotiations with Israel. “The Arab leaders might introduce rhetorical changes in their resolutions, but the substance will remain the same,” said Tarek Fahmy, an expert in regional affairs at the Cairo-based Middle East Research Institute. He added that the Arab "moderate" camp --- which includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority --- does not want to jeopardize what it sees as a readiness on the part of US President Barack Obama to exert pressure on the Cabinet of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

It will be interesting to see how this may play out regarding the expansion of Israeli settlements and any further pressure on Israel.

On that note, today Egypt and Israel commemorated the 31st anniversary of the signing of the 1979 Egypt–Israel Peace Treaty, which came on the heels of the 1978 Camp David Accords. In 1994, Jordan became the second Arab country to sign a peace deal with Israel.

Cultural Moment: This week is the anniversary of the death of the cultural icon of the Middle East and North Africa; Abdel Halim Hafez, otherwise known as Al-Andaleeb. If you ever consider a holiday to Egypt and you reach for local tips and advice, there will always be information in the music section on Al Andaleeb. He was born on 21 June 1929 and completed 15 movies and more than 206 songs before he died in 1977. His first musical hit came in 1951 when he stepped in for singer Kareem Mahmoud on Egyptian National Radio. To this day his music and films live on.

Andaleeb’s music has gone beyond borders. The background music for the Chemical Brothers, "Galvanize" is originally from Abdel Halim’s song "Zay il Hawa" (Like the Air) and Jay-Z’s song "Big Pimpin’" draws from "Khosara".

Did You Know? King Farouk I (the father of the last King of Egypt, King Farouk II) had his own football team. Founded in 1911 as "Kasr il Nil" (The Palace of the Nile), the team was renamed in 1940 to, "Farouk Al-Awal" after Farouk I. Following the Revolution in 1952, the name was changed to "Zamalek" after the area where the club is located.

Afghanistan: Karzai's Middle-Finger Reply to the US

UPDATED 1600 GMT: Some political fun this afternoon over the Karzai statement. Abdullah Abdullah, who lost to Karzai in last year's Presidential election, told reporters, "As a former colleague and doctor, I think this is beyond a normal attitude." White House spokesman Robert Gibbs settled for "genuinely troubling" to describe Karzai's remarks.

The Majlis has a far more pragmatic assessment of why Karzai made his statement.

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Let's check in with Hamid Karzai, five days after Barack Obama made a 26-hour round trip to give him a 30-minute telling-off about corruption, drugs, and mismanagement. I bet he's behaving himself now!

Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, delivered extraordinarily harsh criticism on Thursday of the Western governments fighting in his country, the United Nations, and the British and American news media, accusing them of perpetrating the fraud that denied him an outright victory in last summer’s presidential elections.

Afghanistan: US Night Raids v. “Hearts and Minds”? (Porter)

What? Are you sure about that?


I mean, after all, the US and NATO followed up their Presidential stick with the carrot of allowing Karzai's brother, a focal point for criticism about financial irregularities, to maintain his authority in Kandahar?

“There is no doubt that the fraud [in last August's Presidential election] was very widespread, but this fraud was not committed by Afghans, it was committed by foreigners,” Mr. Karzai said. “This fraud was committed by Galbraith [Peter Galbraith, the deputy United Nations special representative], this fraud was committed by Morillon [Philippe Morillon, the chief election observer for the European Union], and this fraud was committed by embassies.”

April Fools' Day, right? Any moment now, Karzai was going to turn around, give a smile, and say, "Just funning you, Barack --- thanks to you and America for all your help."

“In this situation there is a thin curtain between invasion and cooperation-assistance,” said Mr. Karzai, adding that if the perception spread that Western forces were invaders and the Afghan government their mercenaries, the insurgency “could become a national resistance.”

Hmm, guess not.

One possible explanation for the speech is that Karzai was trying to give himself public cover as a dedicated nationalist, standing up to Washington, even as he gave way to Obama. That's certainly what The New York Times was hoping: "One motive for the angry speech might be an attempt to protect himself politically, since it is probable that he will have to accede to Western demands that he remove the officials on the election commission who were seen as most complicit in the fraud."

Another explanation, however, is that Karzai has just made it clear that he will not be implementing the US agenda in full. Instead, look for more rounds of political manoeuvre as the Afghan President positions himself amidst not only Washington but also his own supporters, the Afghan insurgency, and other interested outside powers.

A story, in other words, that will run and run. President Obama, you might want to have Air Force One warmed up for another long-distance flight.

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Tension; Palestinian State by 2011?; Israel's Hebron Show

Gazan-Israeli Tension Continues: The exchange of rockets between Gaza and Israel continues. In response to a Palestinian short-range rocket fired across the border on Thursday, Israel Air Force launched seven rockets on Friday, killing no one but wounding two children and destroying two caravans, a cheese factory, and a metal foundry. An Israel Defense Forces spokesman confirmed the attacks, saying they had targeted two weapons-manufacturing plants and two arms caches.

MENA House: Changing of the President in Egypt?

On Thursday, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh called on the international community to intervene to avoid escalation.

Militants in the strip responded to Friday's Israeli attack by firing a Qassam rocket into southern Israel.


Palestinian State around 2011? In an exclusive interview with Haaretz, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad stated that "the birth of a Palestinian state will be celebrated as a day of joy by the entire community of nations":

The time for this baby to be born will come and we estimate it will come around 2011. That is our vision, and a reflection of our will to exercise our right to live in freedom and dignity in the country [where] we are born, alongside the State of Israel in complete harmony.

If for one reason or another, by August 2011 [the plan] will have failed... I believe we will have amassed such credit, in form of positive facts on the ground, that the reality is bound to force itself on the political process to produce the outcome.

It is the right of an oppressed nation to say 'enough.' No one should be expected to stand for injustice, not least the Palestinians, who have endured long decades of occupation. Is it not what Gandhi stood for, what Martin Luther King stood for?

Thousands of Israelis Gather in West Bank: On Thursday, thousands came to the Cave of the Patriarchs in the West Bank city of Hebron to celebrate its addition to Israel's list of national heritage sites. Member of Knesset Ayoob Kara (Likud) said that "not even Hussein Obama will remove us from Hebron":

The masses that have come here, including the 40 members of the Land of Israel caucus, are a guarantee and proof that no one will move us from the Cave of the Patriarchs, not even Hussein Obama.

The Prime minister needs to say 'no' to Barack Hussein Obama, and 'yes' to the people of Israel, who have come here in their multitudes today. He needs to grant permits to start building in settlements and in all of Israel.