EA Soundcheck: Scott Lucas on Ted Kennedy

I spoke this morning with the BBC World Service's World Update about the life and politics of Ted Kennedy, focusing on his Senate career and push for social legislation, the health care debate in the US, and the pressure of living up to a Kennedy legacy. The interview begins at the 47:25 mark.

Afghanistan: Violence and Sham Votes

Afghanistan: Forget the Election, Let’s Have Some More Troops
The Latest from Afghanistan: The Election

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As we live-blogged last Thursday on Afghanistan's Presidential election, we did so with a great deal of scepticism --- despite hope that the scepticism would be wrong --- about the process and, more importantly, the politics beyond it.

Unfortunately, events in the last six days have not eased concerns. To the contrary, yesterday was marked by a set of up to five suicide bombs in Kandahar that killed more than 40 people (eerily, we got a report of the first blast within a minute via Twitter). The other headline was the preliminary counting of ballots, which showed both President Karzai and his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, each with about 40 percent of the vote. Even that news, however, was a climbdown: initially electoral authorities had said that the result from "most" of the ballots would be announced, and suspicions of fraud and manipulation, fuelled by the claims of Abdullah and other candidates as well as reliable reports, abound.

In that context, the forceful if depressing opinion piece in yesterday's New York Times by Jean MacKenzie, who directs the Institute for War and Peace Reporting in Afghanistan, resonates:

Afghanistan's Sham Vote

The dust had barely settled on the Afghan elections before the U.S. government, the United Nations and the European Union were hailing them as a success, commending voters for their heroism and election workers for their relative efficiency.

This would be laughable if it were not such a great shame. The elections were severely marred by violence and widespread fraud, and the results are unlikely to placate a population already frustrated by eight years of mismanagement and corruption.

The haste with which U.N. Special Representative Kai Eide held a press conference to say that Aug. 20 was “a good day for Afghanistan” merely served to underscore the central, if unappetizing, truth about the Afghan poll: It was never meant for the Afghans.

Instead, it was intended to convince voters in New York, London, Paris and Rome that their soldiers and their governments have not been wasting blood and treasure in their unfocused and ill-designed attempts to bring stability to a small, war-torn country in South Asia.

If last Thursday was, indeed, a “good day,” one would have to wonder what a bad day looks like. There were three explosions in Kabul by 8:00 a.m., and several more during the voting period.

Reporters calling in to our news bureau from the south were dodging rockets all day — we could hear explosions in the background as they filed their stories. By day’s end 14 rockets had fallen on Helmand Province, 17 on Kandahar.

At least 30 people died, and possibly many more. How many we do not know exactly, since the Afghan government imposed a news blackout on reporting violence during the elections.

Turnout was minimal. Even in Kabul, polling stations were half empty. During parliamentary elections in 2005, barely 36 percent of registered voters in the capital went to the polls. What I saw last Thursday fell far below even that modest threshold. Nevertheless, the Independent Election Commission is claiming the turnout was between 40 and 50 percent.

The figure is merely notional. For one thing, in a country where there are no voter rolls, there are not even approximate figures for how many voters there actually are. The I.E.C. can say with confidence that there have been about 17 million voter registration cards issued in Afghanistan since 2004. But many voters have multiple cards, or have lost their old ones and acquired replacements.

Media sources claim that 7 million people voted last Thursday. What they actually mean is that 7 million ballots were cast. This is far from the same thing. Voting requires merely the number of a voter registration card. There are no signatures, no thumbprints. Tribal leaders (who in many cases were administering polling stations) have been collecting and copying voter registration cards for weeks, telling villagers that it was necessary in order to register them for material assistance.

All that was needed on election day was a low voter turnout. If by day’s end, for example, 100 people had voted, but there were actually 500 registered cards in a district, the polling center administrator could cast up to 400 ballots for the candidate of his choice.

Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on what is, essentially, a charade. But that is not the real tragedy of these elections. What the international community has done is demonstrate to Afghans that democracy is a sham. Trust in these elections has been very low among Afghans from the outset.

President Hamid Karzai will most likely receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, leaving the international community in a bit of a quandary. “We cannot just let him walk away with it,” fumed one foreign diplomat.

But what choice is there? For weeks the E.U., the U.S. Embassy and other international players have been predicting that the vote will go to a second round. The only way this can happen is if the Electoral Complaints Commission disallows enough votes to bring Mr. Karzai under 50 percent.

Then there will be a runoff, most likely between Mr. Karzai and his main rival, former Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, in early October. And then Mr. Karzai will win, since Mr. Abdullah is unlikely to appeal to a majority of the voters, given his mixed ethnicity and Northern Alliance background.

“That will look more like democracy, won’t it?” said one international observer.

Over the next three weeks or so, the Electoral Complaints Commission will vet complaints and make recommendations. Only then will we know what happens in Act Two.

“No person wants to live in a society where the rule of law gives way to the rule of brutality and bribery. That is not democracy, that is tyranny, even if occasionally you sprinkle an election in there,” President Barack Obama said.

He was not discussing Afghanistan, of course: He was speaking to the Parliament of Ghana. But his words ring just as true in Kabul.

When Democracies Fight: Israel and Sweden, Round 2

Israel and Sweden: When Democracies Fight

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Last weekend, we wrote about an article in the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet by Donald Bostrom, calling for an investigation into numerous claims in the 1990s that Israeli soldiers stole the organs of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and the furious response from Israeli diplomatic circles. Although the Swedish Embassy in Israel distanced itself from the report, the Swedish government. Stockholm refused to condemn the article, saying briefly that Sweden has a “free press".

Israel has maintained its criticism. Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz claimed:

This is an anti-Semitic blood libel against the Jewish people and the Jewish state. The Swedish government cannot remain apathetic… We know the origins of these claims. In medieval times, there were claims that the Jews use the blood of Christians to bake their Matzas for Passover. The modern version now is that the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) soldiers use organs of Palestinian to take money.

Then, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman compared today’s Sweden with the country of the 1940s, telling Sweden’s ambassador on Thursday evening:

It's a shame that the Swedish Foreign Ministry fails to intervene in a case of blood libels against Jews… This is reminiscent of Sweden's stand during World War II, when [it] had failed to intervene as well.

Predictably, politics is now on the streets, with thousands of Israelis signing an online petition to boycott the Swedish furniture retailer IKEA.

What should not be forgotten, as we noted in the earlier article, is that this dispute overlays diplomatic frictions over Israel's policy toward Palestine and possible political advantage in displacing that issue. So expect the rhetorical battle between neo-Holocaust scenarios, in which the Israeli military is victimised,  and the claims of freedom of the press to continue for some time.

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume

NEW The 4th Tehran Trial: The Tehran Bureau Summary
NEW Video: The 4th Tehran Trial (25 August)
The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani
Iran Interview: Mousavi Advisor Beheshti on The Election
The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match

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1940 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has asked for time on state television to refute the charges made against him in today's Tehran trial.

1830 GMT: Press TV English's website is now featuring the testimony of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh (1500 GMT). It is playing up the angle that Tajbakhsh, who had been with the Soros Foundation in Iran, conspired with former President Khatami and Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the former Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations, from 2006 on "velvet revolution" after a meeting with George Soros: “Because of the support of some officials from the reformist camp…a safe place was created for the cooperation of domestic and foreign forces…and American political parties and non-governmental organisations found a way to start activities in Iran."

1745 GMT: #MediaFail. OK, I've gone for a run, had a shower, grabbed a cup of tea, chatted with the wife, checked out the Israel-Palestine latest, and....

CNN still has not noticed there was a trial in Tehran today. (OK, at 1737 GMT, one of their Twitter feeds did figure out "Iran resumed Tuesday its mass trial of political reformists", but they have yet to get anyone on the website to notice.)

On a related note, I have yet to see one "Western" media outlet recognise that Hashemi Rafsanjani, as well as the "reformists", was targeted in the proceedings today.

1730 GMT: Freelance journalist and blogger Fariba Pajooh has been arrested.

1720 GMT: One Non-Confession. Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, the Deputy Secretary General of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been unrepentant after today's trials. He explained that, as he was arrested within 2-3 hours of the election results, he could not have been involved in post-election disturbances. He declared, "I have always been a reformist but I am pro-Islamic Republic."



1550 GMT: Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, has issued a short but blunt denial of the charges of money laundering and electoral manipulation levelled at him in the Tehran trial today.

1530 GMT: Days after public allegations that security forces forced the staff of Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to bury 40 bodies of slain protestors, the managing director of the cemetery has been fired.

1525 GMT: And now Press TV English headlines, "Rafsanjani son implicated in fresh Iran trials". It focuses on the testimony of Hamzeh Karimi with the claim "that the Iranian Fuel Conservation Organization's assets were used to finance Rafsanjani presidential campaign" in 2005: “Mehdi Hashemi believed that election in Iran were financed with government funds. He did not believe in spending private savings for the election. So they step up a system for forgery and document falsification."

1515 GMT: No Doubt About It --- Target Rafsanjani. IRNA's lead story is a long overview of the trial today, and its headline goes after Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. Another family member, brother-in-law Abdullah Jafar Ali Jasebi, a former University chancellor, is also criticised.

1500 GMT: Bringing Out the American. The next showpiece testimony, presented in Fars News, is that of Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, identified as the representative of the Soros Foundation in Iran. (For the regime, "Soros Foundation", with its Open Democracy Project, embodies "velvet revolution".) The objective? Tajbaksh's "evidence" that he had continued meetings with Mohammad Khatami after the latter's departure from office in 2005 apparently links the former President to the foreign efforts at regime change in Tehran.

1440 GMT: The head of the Parliament Research Center, Ahmad Tavakoli, has called for the lifting of the ban on the "reformist" newspaper Etemade Melli and the trying of Tehran's chief prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi in military judge's court for his failure in "restoring public rights and promoting justice and legitimate freedoms" in this case and others.

1400 GMT: The Fightback Begins? Mark  down this date: 18 September. If I'm right, that is the last Friday of Ramadan (if I'm wrong, feel free to correct). It is also Qods Day, which is traditionally a day when Hashemi Rafsanjani leads ceremonies.

Mowj-e-Sabz has just declared that this will also be true this year, with Rafsanjani leading Friday prayers in Tehran and the Green movement preparing to march.

1345 GMT: A Quick Note on Media Coverage. Reuters has been in the lead on "Western" coverage of the trial, though it has little beyond Saeed Hajjarian, and it is still unaware of the regime's accusations against the Rafsanjani family. Al Jazeera English is still stuck with an early-morning overview, as is the BBC.

And CNN International is hopeless. Its Twitter outlet tweeted an hour ago about "the latest on our Iran wire": the story, from 0742 GMT, is on Mehdi Karroubi's allegations of sexual abuse of detainees.

1320 GMT: We were going to post a special analysis tomorrow morning of the significance of today's developments but, frankly, the move against Hashemi Rafsanjani as well as the attempt to break the reformists is so stunning that it cannot be too soon to highlight what may be a defining showdown in this crisis. So we've now published a snap analysis, "The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani".

1220 GMT: Farhad Tajari, a member of the Parliamentary National Security Committee has told the Islamic Republic News Agency, "After a meeting with [Mehdi] Karoubi yesterday and based on our thorough and complete investigation.....We believe the claims [of sexual abuse of detainees] are baseless."

1215 GMT: Press TV English's website has published its first account of the trial, focusing on the Hajjarian statement, read by fellow Islamic Iran Participation Front member Saeed Shariati. Hajjarian did not admit --- "" have never been involved in cruelty and enmity towards the Iranian nation and the Islamic establishment" --- but expressed "hatred with all the moves that threatened the country's security". He then resigned from the IIPF.

Ominously the prosecutor called for the "maximum punishment", i.e., the death penalty, for Hajjarian.

1145 GMT: An EA correspondent confirms that the lead item on the Islamic Republic News Agency website claims, from today's "confession" of journalist Masoud Bastani, that the now-defunct website www.jomhouriyat.com was a "war room" for attacks against the Ahmadinejad Government and that the idea of claiming fraud in the election was passed to it through Mehdi Hashemi, Rafsanjani's son.

1140 GMT: Meanwhile, more "confessions" in the trial. Fars is now featuring the testimony of Shahab Tabatabai, the head of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front. The headline claim is that Mir Hossein Mousavi suffered from the "illusion" that he would win a first-round victory in the Presidential election.

1130 GMT: We're checking the accounts of the trial with the help of correspondents. Here is the latest reading of the allegations linking Mir Hossein Mousavi and Hashemi Rafanjani: "Rafsanjani and Mousavi knew Ahmadinejad was winner when the preliminary count showed Ahmadinejad had a wide lead. They decided to create a 'velvet revolution' and demonstrate 'vote fraud'. Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, was involved with Saham News, which was coordinating the demonstrations with the BBC, and he was geting paid through the Azad University in the form of a cheque."

1100 GMT: It looks like we read this correctly. Rah-e-Sabz summarises that the indictment and "confessions" implicate Hasemi Rafsanjani's nephew, Ali Hashemi, for stimulating demonstrations and his son, Mehdi Hashemi, for spreading disinformation.

1030 GMT: If our translation is correct, the regime has used the "confessions" of journalists Hamzeh Karami and Masoud Bastani not only to draw the picture of a foreign-directed network for velvet revolution and not only to allege the implementation of this through Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign, but also to implicate Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi. IRNA also carries an account of the effort "to create doubt and undermine the Ahmadinejad Government's decisions".

1020 GMT: Away from the trial, members of Parliament are holding meetings with President Ahmadinejad's Ministerial nominees in advance of votes of confidence beginning Sunday.

The Press TV article, quoting "principlist" MPs, indicates that the chances of Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, currently Minister of Defence but proposed to move to Interior, depend on his speech to Parliament: “The controversy surrounding Najjar's military background and how it will affect the interior ministry all depends on how he will defend his programs on the voting day in Parliament.” Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is in better shape, though approval is not certain, and Minister of Industry Ali Akbar Mehrabian may remain if he can provide “an acceptable explanation” about his involvement in a fraud case.

1010 GMT: Fars is featuring more "confessions" from defendants, all of which point towards a foreign-instigated "velvet revolution". One defendant has spoken of the involvement of the US Government-funded Radio Farda and training at a site in Czechoslovakia.

It appears, though we cannot be certain, that at least one of the statements may refer to the involvement of sites connected to Hashemi Rafsanjani and, in particular, his son Mehdi Hashemi in this alleged conspiracy. We are double-checking translations to verify.

0925 GMT: Fars News Agency has now published a set of photographs from the 4th Tehran trial.

0740 GMT: Press TV has also published the general indictment of the defendants, based on their alleged statements, in the 4th Tehran trial. "Before the election, statistical evidence was provided that the difference [between candidates] was so great that [President] Ahmadinejad did not need to cheat"; however, the defendants claimed fraud to implement the "velvet revolution". The had "a direct relationship with the colonial and television networks of the BBC and the advertising propaganda machine of the British regime". Even while the voting was in progress, police closed "illegal networks". (Inadvertently, this claim highlights the significance of the testimony of Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, which we carry today in a separate entry.)

0730 GMT: Fars News Agency has published, from Press TV, the statement of Saeed Hajjarian in the 4th Tehran trial. Hajjarian says he is innocent but apologised for "formidable errors" during and after the election. He then goes into a lengthy exposition of the "Western theory of velvet revolution" as "a serious lesson for all political activists".

0700 GMT: Reuters has first summary in English of the 4th Tehran trial. It lists the defendants we name below but, citing Islamic Republic News Agency, says, "Saaed Hajjarian, a former deputy intelligence minister turned architect of Iran's reform movement, was also among the accused".

0545 GMT: The fourth Tehran trial of post-election political detainees has opened, and there are some high-profile reformist politicians, activists, and journalists and the first Iranian-American to stand trial, Kian Tajbakhsh. According to Fars News, other defendants include Behzad Nabavi, Mohsen Safaei Farahani, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, Mohsen Mirdamadi, Saeed Shariati, Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, Shahab Tabatabai, Masoud Bastani, and Saeed Laylaz.

We're checking to see if Saeed Hajjarian, as rumoured over the last 72 hours, is also being tried today. Hajjarian's lawyer said he was forced to resign from the case was replaced by an attorney appointed by the State.

The Tehran Trial: The Regime Goes After the Reformists AND Rafsanjani

The Latest from Iran (25 August): The Trials Resume

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We'll have a full analysis tomorrow after EA staff can consult on today's developments, but I am stunned. Before today, I had said that this trial would be an important signal: if the regime (read Ahmadinejad and Revolutionary Guard --- the Supreme Leader's position in all this is uncertain) had wanted compromise, then this would be a relatively low-profile occasion, having been delayed from last week; if it wanted confrontation, then it would put leading reformists like Saeed Hajjarian in the dock.

So when the regime played its first card today, prosecuting not only Hajjarian but all the leading reformist politicians and associates of former President Khatami, it threw down the challenge: We're Going to Break You.

Then, however, the Ahmadinejad wing of the Government had a surprise. It is now declaring that it is time for Hashemi Rafsanjani to go into his box and, more than a month after the dramatic Friday prayers that challenged the President, be quiet. Frankly, the allegations against Rafsanjani family members were so stunning that I did not trust my translation. But there is no mistake: as one of my EA colleagues predicted in late July, the regime would get at the former President by attacking his family.

Rafsanjani, it appears, wanted to use Ramadan to get some space for his manoeuvres, delaying the Assembly of Experts meeting and making his carefully-worded statement at the Expediency Council on Saturday. That space is now gone: he will have to react to today's events. As will, for that matter, the leaders of the Green movement: for all of Mehdi Karroubi's work in elevating the abuse of detainees issue and Mir Hosssein Mousavi's stumbling but still-present efforts for a Green Path of Hope, they now have to face a regime which wants to stop them through the punishment of the high-profile defendants who were in court today.