UPDATED Iran-US Special: The 4-Step Collapse of Obama's "Engagement" Into Confusion

UPDATE 7 August: Stephen Walt jumps in with this analysis....

Right now, Washington simply assumes that Iran won't negotiate unless it is coerced into doing so by outside pressure. At the same time, Tehran has made it clear that it wants to negotiate but refuses to do so under pressure. The predictable result is the current stalemate. You'd think the U.S. government could come up with something creative to try to overcome this impasse, instead of just hoping for a miracle.

UPDATE 0940 GMT: An interesting clue that, amidst the confusion, the discussion of US-Iran talks is very much alive. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has said that dialogue with Washington requires the permission of the Supreme Leader.

Iran-US Special: Obama Extends His Hand “Engagement, Not Conflict”

This time yesterday I was confidently declaring that President Obama had renewed his approach for engagement with Iran. David Ignatius of The Washington Post was putting out the message, from a specially-arranged briefing of selected journalists: "President Obama put the issue of negotiating with Iran firmly back on the table Wednesday in an unusual White House session with journalists. His message was that even as U.N. sanctions squeeze Tehran, he is leaving open a 'pathway' for a peaceful settlement of the nuclear issue."

Ignatius' narrative fit a pattern which, while interrupted by the breakdown in nuclear discussions last October between Washington, Tehran, and other countries, was far from obsolete. Noting the recent US escalation in Afghanistan and Iran's role in any attempt at a resolution, I assessed, "While the nuclear issue was the first one to be addressed --- given its symbolic position, it had to be resolved before other matters could be tackled --- engagement with Tehran would also pay dividends for US policy in the Middle East, including Iraq, and Afghanistan as well as removing a troublesome issue in relations with Russia and China."

All very logical. Yet, within 24 hours, Obama's initiative has become a tangle of conflicting reports and political counter-attacks, taking us not towards engagement but towards the challenges I identified at the end of yesterday's analysis: "The conflict inside the Administration has taken its toll...The pressure from the US Congress [and opponents outside the Congress] — as well as the war chatter — will not evaporate."

Four Steps to Collapse:

1. THE CONFUSED MESSAGE

If, as Ignatius claims, the President was re-presenting the strategy of negotiating with Iran, others in the room failed to hear this. Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic opens his account: "The session, as envisioned by his aides, was designed to convince his audience that Obama's policy of engagement joined with sanctions is having the desired effect of isolating Iran from the international community even as the country's pursuit of a bomb has not abated."

So pressure, pressure, and only pressure, as Ambinder features Administration optimism that Russia is now on Washington's side. There is not a single word in his report about negotiations.

Robert Kagan recounts, "[Obama] did make clear that the door was, of course, open to the Iranians to change their minds, that sanctions did not preclude diplomacy and engagement, and that if the Iranians ever decide they wanted to 'behave responsibly' by complying with the demands of the international community, then the United States was prepared to welcome them." This, however, is only an annex to the Pressure message: "The 'news' out of this briefing was that the administration wanted everyone to know how tough it was being on Iran."

Peter David of The Economist has perhaps the fullest account of the discussion. Like Ambinder and Kagan, he notes the Administration line that sanctions are pinching Tehran. His presentation on negotiations is not that Obama advocated them but that he pointed to the possibility:

it was important to set out for the Iranians a clear set of steps that America would accept as proof that the regime was not pursuing a bomb: they needed "a pathway". With hard work, America and Iran could thaw a 30-year period of antagonism—provided Iran began to act responsibly.

Mr Obama said that the United States had received no direct contacts from Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, though high-level officials in Iran had investigated the possibility of re-engaging with the P5-plus-one (the permanent members of
the Security Council plus Germany). America would be willing to talk bilaterally to Iran "in the context" of a P5 process that was moving forward. There should meanwhile be a "separate track" on which America could co-operate with Iran on other issues, such as Afghanistan and drugs, for example.

2. THE ANTI-ENGAGEMENT COUNTER-ATTACK

Ambinder and David have not been amongst those beating the drum for confrontation with Tehran and, while Kagan has been a staunch advocate of an aggressive US foreign policy, including the 2003 Iraq war, he has been supportive of Obama's approach on sanctions.

For another journalist at the meeting, however, the agenda was how to stoke the fire of a showdown with Iran. Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic omitted any reference to negotiations, whether Obama advocated them or merely saw the possibility of discussions. Instead, he fit the confusion of journalists' accounts into this pre-determined conclusion:

I am skeptical, though, about the possibilities of a diplomatic breakthrough, for two reasons, one structural, and one related to the state of Iran's opposition: The structural reason is simple; one of the pillars of Islamic Republic theology is anti-Americanism, and it would take an ideological earthquake to upend that pillar. And then there's the problem of the Green Movement. If the Iranian opposition were vibrant and strong, the regime might have good reason to be sensitive to the economic impact of the new sanctions package. But the opposition is weak and divided. The regime has shown itself to be fully capable of suppressing dissent through terror. So I'm not sure how much pressure the regime feels to negotiate with the West.

This is more than enough ammunition for those wanting to shoot down engagement. Max Boot soon wrote for Commentary: "What’s scary is that the illusions about 'outreach' in the upper reaches of this administration have still not been dispelled, despite a year and a half of experience (to say nothing of the previous 30 years of experience), which would suggest that the mullahs aren’t misunderstood moderates who are committed to “peaceful co-existence.”

3. THE FACTIONS INSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION

So what exactly did happen in the Obama briefing to scramble his message? Different journalists, from their own positions or just human nature, will hear --- and even try to produce --- different messages. Kagan, without naming Ignatius, writes:

Some of the journalists present, upon hearing the president's last point about the door still being open to Iran, decided that he was signaling a brand-new diplomatic initiative. They started peppering Obama with questions to ferret out exactly what 'new' diplomatic actions he was talking about.

There's an even more important factor here, however, one that Kagan points to --- but does not fully appreciate, at least in his column --- in his next sentences:

After the president left, they continued probing the senior officials. This put the officials in an awkward position: They didn't want to say flat out that the administration was not pursuing a new diplomatic initiative because this might suggest that the administration was not interested in diplomacy at all. But they made perfectly clear -- in a half-dozen artful formulations -- that, no, there was no new diplomatic initiative in the offing.

As one bemused senior official later remarked to me, if the point of the briefing had been diplomacy, then the administration would have brought its top negotiators to the meeting, instead of all the people in charge of putting the squeeze on Iran.

Kagan's point is incomplete. The Obama Administration has been split, perhaps since it came into office, between a faction who want genuine discussions with Iran and one that only thinks of discussions as the set-up, once there is an Iranian "rejection", for tougher economic and diplomatic measures.

So those who are on the "positive" side for discussions give their perspective to Ignatius --- thus the important reference to the US involvement as Afghanistan (which is not any other account of Obama's remarks) as a factor, if not a necessity, for conversations with Iran --- and those on the "negative" side become the "bemused senior official" in Kagan's article.

Joe Klein of Time, who was also present, captures the confusion: "This was a pretty strange meeting. The President's comments were on the record; his team's comments were on background, meaning that the individuals speaking could only be identified as 'senior Administration officials'."

And that's not all. For the spinning of the story was also going on beyond Obama's briefing. As I noted yesterday in the anlaysis, one or more unnamed officials sought out George Jahn of the Associated Press, leaking two letters (or selected extracts from the letters) from Iran to the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The intent --- supported by Jahn's presentation and failure to put quotes into context, let alone present the letters --- was to rule out any possibility of productive dialogue: "Letters by Tehran’s envoys to top international officials and shared with The Associated Press suggest major progress is unlikely, with Tehran combative and unlikely to offer any concessions."

Such manoeuvres  in turn prop up critics of engagement like Ed Morrissey as they put out the gospel: "Time is running out on stopping the mullahs from their doomsday pursuit, and open hands to the regime have hardly been effective over the last several years, including the last eighteen months.  Either we need to get serious about other options or concede that we’re not serious at all."

4. CAN OBAMA RESCUE HIS ENGAGEMENT?

There's even a black-comedy irony in this story. Flynt Leverett, one of the foremost advocates of a US engagement with Iran for a "grand bargain" on bilateral and regional matters, joins others in dismissing the possibility of productive discussions, not because the Administration is too "soft" (as Goldberg and Boot argue) but because of "the Administration’s maladroit handling of its diplomatic exchanges with Tehran, poor grasp of on-the-ground realities in Iran, and mixed messaging....The President feels he must call in Western journalists to signal Tehran is a sad commentary on the Obama Administration’s failure to develop a discreet and reliable channel through which to communicate with Iranian leaders."

I suspect Leverett, because of his entrenched dislike of US foreign policy, goes a bit far with his unsupported assertion of the "failure to develop a discreet and reliable channel". I'm more than a few miles away from Washington, so I can't prove that the channel is operating, but last year's history is instructive. Between July 2009, when the Administration seized on the possibility of a deal in which Iran's uranium would be enriched in a country such as Russia, and October, a channel was established between Washington and Tehran. It was not direct but rather through third parties, including the International Atomic Energy Agency, European parties, and Turkey. And it led to face-to-face talks between US and Iranian representatives at Geneva in the autumn.

Even though that effort at an agreement ran adrift, the channels were not set aside. Ankara and the European Union have been used in recent weeks to pass Washington's thoughts to Tehran (and vice versa). Obama left more than a clue in his briefing: "High-level officials in Iran had investigated the possibility of re-engaging with the P5-plus-one [US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China]." Time's Klein offers further support that the process of 2009 --- contact at working levels --- is being repeated, although he fails to recognise it is two-way:

The President confirmed that "high level" Iranians have reached out to the Obama Administration over the past months, hoping to get a dialogue restarted. The President emphasized that neither the Supreme Leader nor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have attempted to contact us, and his aides later insisted that nothing concrete was in the works.

And in Tehran, once you get past President Ahmadinejad's more outlandish postures in recent weeks, he too has been putting out references to both indirect communication with the US and to direct talks in the near-future.

The problem is not that the channel for engagement does not exist; it is the interference that distorts and even scrambles it. The President and his advisors are putting out signals , not just to Tehran but to the US Congress, to their anti-engagement critics, to Israel, and to other countries. No surprise that those signals often clash, especially when the Obama Administration has the faction within that does not even believe in engagement.

Last November, I fretted, "The US President [may] be back in the cul-de-sac: pressed by some advisors and a lot of Congressmen to pursue sanctions which offer no remedy for — and no exit from — the political dilemma of his failed engagement."

This week, with those sanctions now reality, Obama tried to get out of the cul-de-sac with his high-profile briefing. Initially I thought he had a chance; 24 hours later, I am thinking that his effort --- at least in the context of domestic politics --- never made it around the corner.

The Latest from Iran (6 August): The Campaign Against Ahmadinejad's Aide

1925 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Lede, the blog of The New York Times, has now noted the hunger strike of the 17 detainees in Evin Prison.

1915 GMT: The No-Longer-Missing Lawyer. Human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei is under European diplomatic protection after Turkish authorities released him today from a detention center for illegal immigrants.

An Amnesty International  official says Mostafaei is expected to travel to Norway.

1730 GMT: Looks like we should name this the "Attacking Rahim-Mashai" thread. Another prominent member of Parliament (and Ali Larijani ally), Ahmad Tavakoli, has joined the criticism of the President's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, for his statements putting forth Iran rather than Islam as a source of emulation for other countries.

Tavakoli has insisted the Parliament will not remain silent in the face of the remarks.

NEW Iran-US Special: The 4-Step Collapse of Obama’s “Engagement” Into Confusion
Iraq and Iran: Has Ayatollah Sistani Challenged the Supreme Leader’s Authority? (Nafisi)
Iran-US Special: Obama Extends His Hand “Engagement, Not Conflict”
Iran Feature: Free Speech (and Some Laughs) in the Theatre (Tehran Bureau)
The Latest from Iran (5 August): Challenges

1625 GMT: Re-packaging the Friday Prayer. Press TV's entry on the Friday Prayer by Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (see 1325 GMT) changes the priority to the message that "a possible US attack on the Islamic republic will jeopardize American interests in the world". Khatami's attack on Presidential advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, highlighted in other media accounts, seems to have disappeared.

1325 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Update. In a shocking development, the US was not the main target of today's Tehran Friday Prayer, delivered by Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami.

So who got the honour?

Why, it's President Ahmadinejad's chief of staff and brother-in-law, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai!

Khatami, without naming Rahim-Mashai --- or, as Fars put it carefully, "an implicit reference to the words of a Government official" --- criticised those who put Iranian nationalism before Islam.

Earlier this week, Rahim-Mashai has said that it was Iran, rather than Islam, that now stood as an example for emulation by the rest of the world.

Elsewhere in the speech, Khatami went after the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mike Mullen, for his confirmation that the US had war plans for Iran. But, you know, that just couldn't match up with the apparent transgression of the President's favourite advisor.

(And what do you know? Moments later, I spot an article from Parleman News on Rahim-Mashai as the cause of division amongst principalists. And Tabnak is reporting the comments of conservative member of Parliament Ali Motahari that Ahmaidnejad must question Rahim-Mashai about his remarks.)

1200 GMT: The Battle Within. Ali Asghari, a member of the Expediency Council, has warned that principalism without reformism ends up in dictatorship.

1055 GMT: Talking Tough Today. The commander of Iran's army, Major General Ataollah Salehi, has warned enemies of a "crushing defeat" if they attack: "The army is ready to deal a heavy blow to any aggressors against Iran territories."

0955 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani has issued a statement of support for the 17 hunger strikers in Evin Prison and their families.

0935 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online claims that only 20% of workers are receiving their food supplies for the holy month of Ramadan.

0930 GMT: Fretting. Looks like Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi is a bit worried: he has warned the board of Tarbiat Modarres University of the possibility of a "stronger" sedition. He declared that if young people are not religious, then the Revolution will be weakened.

0920 GMT: The Sale of History. Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Seyed Mohammad Hosseini has declared, "We must promote the Iranian culture to find purity, because the world is hungry for this." He announced that he would give permits for books seeking this aim.

Hosseini may want have a word about his cultural mission with the President's chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai: according to Rooz Online, the Cultural Heritage Organization, headed by Rahim-Mashai, plans to sell some of Iran's historic artifacts.

0915 GMT: Backing the President? Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi of the Assembly of Experts, one of the most vocal supporters of the Government, has given Mahmoud Ahmadinejad mixed support against claims from "hard-liners" that he has been soft on cultural issues. Haeri Shirazi, criticising Western values in Iranian education, refers to the President's campaign to "Islamise" schools but leaves the impression that Ahmadinejad has not been up to the mark in enforcing hijab.

Haeri Shirazi also made a spirited defence of the Supreme Leader's authority.

0910 GMT: Oil Crash and Squeeze. Peyke Iran is reporting that two planes of the National Iranian Oil Company have collided at Mehrabad Airport in Tehran.

Citing Reuters, the website adds that Turkey's exports of gasoline to Iran have increased.

0640 GMT: A Message to Washington. Reformist member of Parliament Amir Taherkhani has said the US is unwise 2 let "Zionists" have a free hand, warning that adventurism will cause a crisis.

0633 GMT: Missiles and False News. Peyke Iran, quoting Deutsche Welle, claims that the "news" of delivery of four S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran --- two from Belarus and two from an unspecified source --- was removed by Fars News within two hours of publication.

0629 GMT: No Justice. In an interview with the mother and lawyer of Neda Agha Soltan, the woman shot to death by a Basij militiaman on 20 June 2009, Fereshteh Ghazi claims that the suspect in the case has disappeared.

0625 GMT: The Guards and the Economy. Mehdi Eliasi, writing in Rooz Online, has evaluated how the increasing involvement of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps in the economy is undermining the foundations of the private sector.

0615 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A group of students and alumni of Azad University of Tehran have released a statement objecting to Ali Malihi’s four-year prison sentence and his detention in solitary confinement, expressing concern over his physical and psychological state and well-being.

Malihi has been detained for seven months, spending about 40 days in solitary. He is one of the 17 political prisoners now on hunger strike.

0605 GMT: The Campaign Against Jannati. It is not just opposition clerics and politicians who are pressing Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, after his recent claim of $1 billion given to the Green "leaders" and another $50 billion promised by the US and Saudi Arabia for regime change. Conservative member of Parliament Nayyereh Akhavan has also declared that Jannati should show the documents proving his allegation.

0545 GMT: Mousavi and the Hunger Strike. Mir Hossein Mousavi has praised the resistance of 17 political prisoners on hunger strike in Evin Prison, while asking them to end it:

All seekers of freedom and righteousness have heard your message and have witnessed your resistance for your humanitarian and legitimate demands.

Now that that your message and your families’ struggle has spread across the globe and within the country, the nation is concerned about your health as Green assets for the country. We urge you to end your hunger strike and call on prison officials to respect the rights of all prisoners based on the flawed rule and regulations that exist and not to allow for the country’s reputation to be further tarnished in the eyes of the world’s nations.

The 17 strikers include Bahman Ahmadi Amooei (journalist), Hossein Nourinejad (journalist and member of Islamic Iran Participation Front), Abdollah Momeni (student activist and spokesperson for the Office for Fostering Unity), Ali Parviz (student activist), Hamidreza Mohammadi (political activist), Jafar Aghdami (civil activist), Babak Bordbar (photojournalist), Ebrahim (Nader) Babaei (civil activist and wounded veteran of the Iran-Iraq war), Kouhyar Goudarzi (human rights activist and weblog writer), Keyvan Samimi (journalist), and Mohammad Hossein Sohrabi Rad.

0535 GMT: International Front. Presidents Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and Emomali Rahman of Tajikistan were in Tehran on Thursday at the opening of the “Fourth Meeting of Persian-Speaking Countries”, and meet with high-ranking Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

There were few substantive details in Fars News, which said Karzai and Rahman supported peaceful nuclear energy and agreements were signed to combat terrorism and fight drug trafficking. However, Karzai's visit comes as the US is escalating its effort in Afghanistan and may be looking for Iranian co-operation.

0525 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom claims that authorities are putting pressure on political prisoners by "exiling" them to prisons distant from their hometowns, thus hindering the ability of families to visit them.

Student activist Atafeh Nabavi, who was detained in the mass protest of 15 June 2009 and is serving a four-year sentence, has written an open letter to the 17 hunger strikers in Evin Prison:

I know that when you began your action, you knew that any protest in this country will have disproportionate costs. I honor your stance and your weakened existence, and I wish that you get what you deserve in this unfair battle.

0515 GMT: After a break last night, we start by noting yesterday's attack, possibly by Basij militia members, on opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi.

Karroubi was attending a funeral at Nour Mosque in Tehran when it was surrounded by individuals, allegedly armed, who threw eggs at the cleric when he left. His bodyguards tried to scatter the assailants by shooting into the air.

The news was first reported by Fars but was later confirmed by Karroubi's Taghi.

Mehdi Karroubi has been attacked by pro-government groups several times since the 2009 election, most recently in June when he was visiting Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, another critic of the Government. He was uninjured in yesterday's incident.

The Latest from Iran (5 August): Challenges

1540 GMT: Culture Corner. Human rights activists Parvin Ardalan and Azin Izadifar are among the recipients of the 2010 Hellmann-Hammett Prize. The award, named after playwright Lillian Hellman and crime writer Dashiell Hammett and administered by Human Rights Watch, recognises literary excellence.

1535 GMT: Replacing the Clerics. The names of 12 new Friday Prayer leaders for 12 cities have been published. Each will serve for three years.

Recently 60 Friday Prayer leaders were "retired" by the regime.

NEW Iran-US Special: Obama Extends His Hand “Engagement, Not Conflict”
Iran Feature: Free Speech (and Some Laughs) in the Theatre (Tehran Bureau)
Iran Special: Grenade Attack on Ahmadinejad?
Iran Feature: The Activism of the Women’s Movement (Mouri)
The Latest from Iran (4 August): The President and The Plots

1530 GMT: Keyhan v. Ahmadinejad. More on the feud between the "hard-line" newspaper Keyhan and the President's office....

Keyhan had alleged that one of the those invited to this week's conference of the Iranian diaspora, Hooshang Amirahmadi of the American Iranian Council, was a "CIA associate". Ahmadinejad's chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, denied Amirahmadi had been approached.

So Keyhan has published the official invitation for Amirahmadi.

1450 GMT: The Torture Information. Khodnevis is claiming, from a source close to the Assembly of Experts, that the head of the Assembly, Hashemi Rafsanjani has sent the cases of 22 people who were allegedly tortured to the Supreme Leader. Acccording to the source, Rafsanjani personally delivered details of five cases, including that of editor and university offical Hamzeh Karami, to Ayatollah Khamenei.

(EA reported on the Karami case yesterday but we did not know of the four other claimed cases.)

According to this source, the 22 complaints included allegations against specific officials. One of these is Hossein Taeb, the former commander of the Basij militia and now head of the Intelligence Bureau of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

1330 GMT: The No-Longer-Missing Lawyer. Human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who has fled arrest in Iran and is now in Turkey (see 0655 and 1205 GMT), has given an interview to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on his recent experiences and his defense of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Ramin Poshtkoohi was arrested in Isfahan on Sunday.

1315 GMT: Twitter and Iran. Dave Siavashi has written a heart-felt, incisive analysis at Iran News Now, "Revisiting what the 'Twitter Revolution' really means".

1310 GMT: Mahmoud's Plans. President Ahmadinejad has declared that "opponents" (in the Green Movement? in Parliament?) are trying to sabotage the introduction of his subsidy reduction plan in October.

1207 GMT: International Front. The Supreme Leader's key advisor on foreign affairs, former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, is in Lebanon for talks with Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Lebanese Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami.

1209 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz claims intelligence agents have allegedly called mothers of Evin Prison hunger strikers, threatening them with arrest.

1205 GMT:  A Turkish Foreign Ministry official has told CNN that "extradition to Iran is out of question" for Iranian human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei (see 0655 GMT).

1150 GMT: Forget the Grenade, We're Going Into Orbit. Iran's official outlet IRNA highlights a passage from President Ahmadinejad's speech on Thursday in Hamedan, in which he said Tehran would put a man into space by 2017: "The plan is in line with an Iran space agency program to produce and place in orbit a spacecraft at an altitude of more than 35,000 kilometers."

Ahmadinejad has made similar declarations over the last 12 months, including his proclamation of the launch of a rocket which had two turtles, a mouse, and some worms.

1145 GMT: Sanctions Watch. As Iran's Minister of Oil Massoud Mirkazemi visits Beijing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry maintained its careful balancing act on pressure against Tehran: "China's trade with Iran is a normal business exchange, which will not harm the interests of other countries and the international community. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, China has always observed the council's resolutions."

Earlier this week Robert Einhorn, the special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control at the U.S. State Department, declared that China should live up to the sanctions.

0900 GMT: The Campaign against Jannati. Looks like a development in our ongoing watch on the pressure against Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, and thus indirectly on the Supreme Leader. From the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in reaction to the false accusations made by Ahmad Jannati [a reference to Jannati's speech last accusing opposition leaders of taking $1 billion, with a promise of another $50 billion, from the US and Saudi Arabia to overthrow the regime], have written a joint letter addressed to senior religious figures and Grand Ayatollahs. They have asked them to step in for the sake of “saving the integrity of Islam and religious figures’ statue” and to confront those who pose as clerics and who, obviously and shamelessly, are damaging the stature of Islam and religious figures.

In this joint letter Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi called on the Grand Ayatollahs to confront Ahmad Jannati and ask him to provide his so-called documents regarding the accusations he made that the Green leaders have received $1 billion from the United States Government via Saudi Arabia to overthrow the establishment....Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi stated that these false accusations made by chairman of the Guardian Council are “the most striking example of shameless...insults”.

0845 GMT: We've posted two features. Scott Lucas analyses an important signal from President Obama on Iran policy, "Engagement, Not Conflict". And a Tehran Bureau correspondent moves politics into another arena, "Free Speech (and Some Laughs) in the Theatre".

0720 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appellate court has upheld the five-year sentence of Mohammad Davari, editor of Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News.

0655 GMT: The No-Longer-Missing Lawyer. Saeed Kamali Dehghan, writing in The Guardian of London, updates on the case of human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei, who fled Iran after authorities tried to detain him and arrested his wife and brother-in-law (his wife is still in prison).

Mostafaei is now in Turkey but there is some confusion over his status: Dehghan says the lawyer was arrested on immigration charges on Monday. According to The Guardian, Norwegian and US officials met Mostafaei in prison and offered him asylum, but he was forced by Turkish officials to claim asylum with the UN authorities in Turkey or face extradition.

0630 GMT: Academic Boycott. Minister of Health Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi has confirmed what EA already knew from experience: new restrictions will be applied on students seeking to study in Britain and the US, since they are hostile and have only "limited relations" with Tehran.

(One beneficiary of the policy is Ireland, an English-speaking country towards which students have been directed for some time.)

0550 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis by Rasool Nafisi of the possible significance for Ayatollah Khamenei of a fatwa by Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the leading Shia cleric in Iraq, which says clerical authority must come from the affirmation of the people.

Meanwhile, as we look for the political fallout from yesterday's grenade/firecracker attack/non-attack on President Ahmadinejad's motorcade....

Political Prisoner Watch

Activists Zahra Rahnavard and Parvin Fahimi, the mother of the slain demonstrator Sohrab Arabi, have met with the families of the 17 political prisoners on hunger strike.

On Air Soon

Rasa TV, the product of Resaneh Sabze Iran, is now on-line and promising to be on-air in the near-future.

Today's Tough Talk

Brigadier General Mohammad-Hassan Baqeri, a deputy commander of Iran's army, lays it out "Any insane move will bring the US nothing but regret and they will get our final response in the scene of action."

Iraq and Iran: Has Ayatollah Sistani Challenged the Supreme Leader's Authority? (Nafisi)

Days after Iran's Supreme Leader had released, retracted, and then re-released his "I am the Rule of the Prophet" declaration, the leading Shi'a cleric in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, issued his own fatwa.



The contrast between the Khamenei and Sistani approaches to velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical supremacy) is stark. Now for the political question: was the Sistani pronouncement solely, or at least primarily, fostered by Iraqi developments or is it a response to the Supreme Leader's fatwa?

Rasool Nafisi, who has offered this analysis of Sistani's move, answers, "The fatwa was possibly prompted by the fatwa of Khamenei":

Ayatollah Sistani, in an important fatwa, has clarified his position on velayat faghih. Answering three questions on the function and role of velayat faghih, the ayatollah asserts the general Shiite ulama's
understanding of the function of velayat: it is for "omoor hessbieh" meaning to act as the caretaker of orphans, etc.

But for "omoor aammah" , meaning the general affairs of society including the political sphere, Sistani clearly says that for a vali to rule as such he needs "being accepted and popular (maghbool) by the majority of believers" as one of the main conditions.

In other words, Sistani believes that velayat has no divine origins, and the vali can only act as a ruler if his role is accepted by the majority. This fatwa is in contrast to the new wave of ideological assertions by [Iran's Ayatollah] Mesbah Yazdi and his cohorts who are hard at work to prove the divine origins of vali, and that he is only "discovered" (kashf) by the people, [for] he is already appointed by the Imam in Occultation.

Sistani's fatwa in a way annuls Ayatollah Khamenei's fatwa issued a couple of weeks ago where he clearly said he substitutes [for] the prophet and Imams and people should obey his political statements verbatim. Considering the vast unpopularity of Khamenei, it seems that the condition of "being accepted and popular among the believers" does not quite apply here.

The Latest from Iran (4 August): The President and The Plots

1830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farah Vazham, a female protestor detained during the Ashura demonstrations in December, has been sentenced to 15 years on charges of affiliation to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO).

1755 GMT: Deportation Update. Mission Free Iran reports that the threat to deport Iranian activist Jamal Saberi from Japan has been lifted.

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Iran Feature: Did Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Reveal the Bomb?
The Latest from Iran (3 August): Explosive Words

1705 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran's inflation rate dropped to 9.1% in the month to 22 July, the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, Mahmoud Bahmani, has said. The previous month's official rate was 9.4%.

1700 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Esmail Sahabeh, a member of the reformist, Islamic Participation Front, has been sentenced to 4 1/2 years in prison.

Judge Salavati, in charge of the case, was absent during the hearing and handed down the ruling without hearing Sahabeh’s defence.

Sahabeh was arrested during a religious ceremony held in support of political prisoners in October 2009. He was released on bail after two months in prison.

1500 GMT: The Pressure on the Supreme Leader. Geneive Abdo and Arash Aramesh write in The New York Times of "The Widening Rift Among Iran's Clerics". Their provocative conclusion:

Khamenei’s success is the result of his ability to forge alliances with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, some clerics, and traditional conservatives. Although his ties to hard-liners and the Revolutionary Guards may seem stronger today, he still needs the support of the clerical establishment.

Khamenei’s idea of the Islamic Republic is certainly less republican and not necessarily more Islamic. With republican institutions in Tehran weakened and his religious authority challenged in Qum, the future of the Islamic Republic and the fate of velayat-e-faqih remain uncertain.

1450 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The office of the Islamic Women's Sports Federation, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh Hashemi, has been closed, purportedly because of lack of payments from Iran's Olympics Committee.

1410 GMT: An explosion at a petrochemical plant has killed five people at Asalouyeh in southern Iran. The new phase of the plant, which was the largest producer of ammonia in the region, was opened only a week ago in a ceremony with President Ahmadinejad.

1355 GMT: Crime and Punishment. The former head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Mohammad Jafar Behdad, has been sentenced to 7 months for slandering the Larijani brothers and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1350 GMT: Economy Watch. Aftab News claims that, over the past five years, prices have risen 220%.

1200 GMT: Parliament v. Government. A buffet of challenges from the Majlis....

Hojatoleslam Ali Asghari, the Parliamentary liaison with Strategic Studies Center, criticises "economic stalemate" with "political unrest and radicalism" leading to sanctions and a weakening Majlis leading to "dictatorship".

MP Ali Akbar Oulia declares that the Majlis will not allow the Government to continue its refusal to implement laws, as the delay is harmful to the Iranian people and continues the "chaos" in the country.

Reformist MP Nasrullah Torabi chides the "low language" of Government officials for giving the impression that all Iranian representatives are also "low".

Reformist MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz claims that some Iranians are now spending three-quarters of their income for rent.

"Hardline" MP Ezzatollah Youssefian Mola says Iran's central bank, Bank Markazi, cannot be trusted as it does not present real data on cases of financial corruption.

1145 GMT: Someone's Looking for Trouble. Ahmadinejad chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, according to Aftab News, has pronounced, "From now on we present the world the way and principles (maktab) of Iran, not of Islam."

So who is making mischief here: Rahim-Mashai or Aftab?

1130 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert: Member of Parliament Abdollah Kaabi has insisted that sanctions will lead to Iran's self-sufficiency in producing energy.

1125 GMT: The Campaign of the Politician Prisoners (Rafsanjani Annex). A twist in the story of the letter to the Supreme Leader from Hamzeh Karami, a former political prisoner alleging abuse (see 0635 GMT)....

Rah-e-Sabz claims former President Hashemi Rafsanjani took the letter to Ayatollah Khamenei, insisting on delivering it directly to the Supreme Leader.

1122 GMT: OK, I Was Wrong. Just to admit the error in my assertion (0825 GMT) that the "Iran Has 4 S-300 Missiles" would be the big story in the non-Iranian media today.

1109 GMT: The Campaign Against Jannati. More from Mr Verde on the growing movement against the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, fed by his claims that opposition leaders were paid $1 billion for causing trouble last year and offered a further $50 billion by the US and Saudi Arabia to overthrow the regime.... are not just causing problems for him, but are embroiling the Supreme Leader too.

Kalemeh reports that Rasool Montajebnia, a cleric who was close to Ayatollah Khomeini and a founding member of Mehdi Karroubi’s Etemade Melli party, has written that the Supreme Leader should now step in and address Jannati's accusation with “precision, transparency and decisiveness” so that “everyone could know if these allegations are true or lies”.

Mr Verde notes:

The timing of Jannati's claims, so soon after his reappointment to the Guardian Council, is allowing the reformists to push for the Supreme Leader's intervention. If Jannati is misinformed to such an extent, is lying, or is incapable of thinking straight, then Ayatollah Khamenei has made an enormous mistake by reappointing him to the Council. This wouldmean that Khamenei’s judgment cannot be trusted, which in turn could become a reason for him being unfit to hold the position of Supreme Leader.

And another “minor” point: if Jannati’s recent claims about the payments are false, then how can one accept that the Guardian Council  was correct in “verifying” Ahmadinejad’s disputed re-election last year?

Making these claims, Jannati was probably providing excuses for the actions of the regime over the past year. Instead he seems to have provided a good opportunity for attacks on Khamenei. This is another example of remarks or events spiralling out of control.

1105 GMT: Mousavi Watch. On the eve of Journalists Day, Mir Hossein Mousavi has met with editors, reporters, and families of imprisoned journalists. Mousavi said:

Our voice should reach our imprisoned friends who are on hunger strike to gain their very basic rights;,so that they know that the Green Movement, freedom-seekers, and all layers of the nation are supporting them to achieve their rightful demands....

The great number of imprisoned journalists proves the legitimacy of the path that the Green Movement has chosen, because the knowledgeable, wise, and justice-seeking members of the society are in prison due to their protest against the re-eruption of tyranny.

1040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims Iranian security forces have attacked families of political prisoners who are on hunger strike. The families were demonstrating in front of the office of Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi (see 0800 GMT).

1035 GMT: The Missing Lawyer. The United Nations' refugee agency has confirmed human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei is in Turkey.

Mostafaei, whose clients include Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery, has been in hiding after Iranian security forces tried to detain him. His wife and brother-in-law are in prison.

1030 GMT: We have been busy with a separate entry following this morning's story of a possible attack on President Ahmadinejad's motorcade in Hamedan in western Iran.

0845 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained teacher Rasoul Baddaghi has been sentenced to six years in prison.

0830 GMT: We have posted a feature, "The Activism of the Women's Movement".

0825 GMT: Today's Tough Talk. Expect this story to take over in non-Iranian press today....

Fars News is claiming that Iran has obtained four S-300 surface-to-air missiles despite Russia's refusal to deliver them to Tehran. The agency claims two came from Belarus and two from an unspecified source.

There has been no immediate official confirmation of the report.

Russia signed a contract in 2007 to sell S-300 missiles to Iran, but has delayed delivery amidst its manoeuvring between Tehran and Washington. The S-300 system can shoot down aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missile warheads at a distance of more than 90 miles and altitudes of about 90,000 feet.

0815 GMT: Mousavi on Oppression in the Name of Islam. Green Voice of Freedom has a full summary of Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech, which we noted yesterday, to veterans of the Iran-Iraq War:

Tyranny and oppression are bad regardless of the circumstances and the time, regardless of whether it is during the Pahlavis [the dynasty of the Shahs] or the Islamic Republic. In fact, oppression under the Islamic Republic is worse because it is done in the name of Islam. Does Islam accept the violation of a human being or obtaining confessions from him by forcing his head down the toilet?

Mousavi's reference to forced confessions is drawn from the experience of Hamzeh Karami, who has written to the Supreme Leader about the abuse in prison (see 0635 GMT).

0800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. According to IRNA, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi met with 17 prisoners, some or all of whom are reportedly on hunger strike, and their families on Tuesday.

After hearing the concerns and demands, Doulatabadi reportedly ordered that families be allowed to meet with the detainees, denying that there had been any restrictions.

0645 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The Washington Post picks up on the US formal announcement of sanctions against 21 "front companies" for the Iranian Government, including firms in in Belarus, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Luxembourg.

An EA source points us to background on two of the sanctioned German companies: Breyeller Stahl Technology and IFIC Holding AG.

0635 GMT: The Campaign of the Political Prisoners. Yesterday, Josh Shahryar offered a sharp analysis of the impact of revelations by journalist Isa Saharkhiz, detained in Evin Prison, and former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, held for months after the election and forced to appear in a show trial.

There's a significant sequel. Hamzeh Karami, the manager of the reformist Jomhouriat website and a senior official at Islamic Azad University, has written to the Supreme Leader of his treatment in detention: "They put my head in a dirty toilet 20 times to make me give a false confession. When I screamed "Ya Allah". they said, "We are your God today and will do to you whatever we want."

In the "confession" that he gave at the Tehran mass trial last August, Karami implicated Mehdi Hashemi, the son of Hashemi Rafsanjani, claiming that Hashemi had been involved in fraud and manipulation of the Presidential election.

0615 GMT: We open today with some political theatre from President Ahmadinejad (Drama? Comedy? Farce? You decide.):

We had noted yesterday that the President had criticised current United Nations sanctions, connecting them to the "cup of poison" that Ayatollah Khomeini had to drink when accepting the 1988 UN resolution for a cease-fire in the Iran-Iraq War. He had denounced Western media such as the BBC and CNN. But there's more....

According to Raja News, a fervent backer of the Government, Ahmadinejad told his audience at a conference on international broadcasting that the recent "spy swap" between Russia and the US affects Tehran. In the deal between Washington and Moscow, the released Russian agents will pose as nuclear scientists and accuse Iran of plans for a military capability.

Iranian sources claim that official media were so embarrassed that, except for Raja, they censored this section of the speech.

Meanwhile, Pedestrian has posted a clip of Ahmadinejad's speech on Monday to a conference of the Iranian diaspora, offering this interpretation: "The Iranian political libido is going berserk."