Enduring America in Transit

We'll be celebrating New Year's Eve with family. Happy New Year to all --- normal service resumed tomorrow afternoon.

Gaza Update: Palestinian Authority Threatens Suspension of Peace Talks

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has condemned the Israeli military operations against Gaza:

The most important obligation is to rally the forces, nationally and regionally, to end the barbaric and criminal Israeli aggression against our people in the Gaza Strip.

Abbas has threatened to pull out of the protracted talks with Israel over a two-state settlement.

Now, this is the same Mahmoud Abbas who spoke with George Bush yesterday, just before the White House rejected an immediate cease-fire and implied it had the support of Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.

So is the Palestinian Authority genuinely siding with Hamas, despite its political rivalry with that organisation, and the Gazan population against the Israeli attacks? Or are Abbas and his advisors displaying a public face of Palestinian unity while privately accepting the US line and thus the continued Israeli operations?

Speculation: the Palestinian Authority realises it is on a tightrope with its own base of supporters in the West Bank and, while it has no love lost for Hamas, is going to have to distance itself from Washington the longer the Israeli attacks continue.

Gaza and Domestic Politics: A Reader Comments

A reader from Turkey has offered these shrewd observations. I don't think Israeli domestic politics is the primary motive for the operation --- remember, it was planned back in June --- but it is a supporting reason that may have accelerated the Israeli attack.


Would you agree with me that I think the basic stimulus behind the ongoing Israeli operations in Gaza is beyond the worries growing out of the terrorist attacks of Hamas and the weariness of these rockets into the Israeli territory? It is basically an internal problem. As Netanyahu, Livni and Barak are going to run for the elections in February, each of them are trying to show more decisiveness in responding attacks. And each move is pulling others to come into a harder-line position which brings the Israeli politics into a vicious circle.



Secondly, this has been a an important test for the Obama administration. His pro-Israeli discourses (which have been one of the most pro-Israeli discourses since George W. Bush) were tested and Obama has not stated any seriously negative comment for the operation in Gaza. Moreover, this operation probably made some neocons really happy cause they are going to leave a bomb in the Middle East in Democrats' hands.

The ongoing economic crisis and the Middle Eastern issue are going to put pressure on the Obama administration and the more pressure Obama feels on his shoulders, the more public support Republicans get with the "necessities" of the "significance of the war on terrorism" and "the importance of Israel" as a strategic ally for the US. As a result, the Obama administration will be bound to draw its line closer to conservative perceptions.

Gaza Update (10 p.m. Israel; 3 p.m. Eastern US): A Truce Offer Which Will Go Nowhere

Today's diplomatic news is the reported offer by Khaled Mashaal, the Hamas leader in exile in Damascus, of a cease-fire via the Russian Foreign Ministry. The condition is that Israel release its economic blockade of Gaza.

The approach, unfortunately, will be a non-starter. Even if Mashaal rather than the local Hamas leadership in Gaza speaks for the party, Tel Aviv will respond by saying that it will not lift the blockade in advance of a Hamas declaration of a cessation of rocket and mortar attacks. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert launched his own pre-emptive diplomatic strike to this effect, saying, "We did not enter this operation in order to end it with the firing still continuing."

So, for now, it looks like more of the same with continued Israeli military operations and diplomatic manoeuvrings by each side --- Israel to keep open a window for its attack and attempt to break Hamas, Hamas to mobilise international as well as local opinion for long-term political advantage.

Happy New Year (Again)

And because I didn't want a post on 'Barack The Magic Negro' to be my last of 2008, I'd like to reiterate Scott's post and wish all our readers a safe and prosperous 2009.

Happy Hogmanay everybody!