Gaza and Domestic Politics: A Reader Comments

A reader from Turkey has offered these shrewd observations. I don't think Israeli domestic politics is the primary motive for the operation --- remember, it was planned back in June --- but it is a supporting reason that may have accelerated the Israeli attack.


Would you agree with me that I think the basic stimulus behind the ongoing Israeli operations in Gaza is beyond the worries growing out of the terrorist attacks of Hamas and the weariness of these rockets into the Israeli territory? It is basically an internal problem. As Netanyahu, Livni and Barak are going to run for the elections in February, each of them are trying to show more decisiveness in responding attacks. And each move is pulling others to come into a harder-line position which brings the Israeli politics into a vicious circle.



Secondly, this has been a an important test for the Obama administration. His pro-Israeli discourses (which have been one of the most pro-Israeli discourses since George W. Bush) were tested and Obama has not stated any seriously negative comment for the operation in Gaza. Moreover, this operation probably made some neocons really happy cause they are going to leave a bomb in the Middle East in Democrats' hands.

The ongoing economic crisis and the Middle Eastern issue are going to put pressure on the Obama administration and the more pressure Obama feels on his shoulders, the more public support Republicans get with the "necessities" of the "significance of the war on terrorism" and "the importance of Israel" as a strategic ally for the US. As a result, the Obama administration will be bound to draw its line closer to conservative perceptions.

Peace on Earth, Goodwill to All Men (Except in Gaza)

Five days ago, after the cessation of the truce between the Israeli Government and Hamas, Enduring America wrote:

There will be a series of bombings and targeted assassinations as the rocket attacks continue. In effect, this is a situation of deadly stalemate.

And so it goes, as Kurt Vonnegut would say. After an increase in rockets into Southern Israel, the Israeli Defense Force swung the heavy fist this morning. More than 30 missiles have killed more than 150 people so far.



We mention our prediction not to brag but to point out the near-inevitability that "the cycle of violence", that over-used but over-appropriate phrase, was going to spiral. Groups in Gaza, either directly responsible to Hamas or independent of the Gazan Government, were going to increase the firing of rockets and missiles. That scatter-gun attack, sooner or later, was going to kill an Israeli, and when it did, both the pretext and the political necessity would be established for a large-scale response from Tel Aviv. (Doubly so, when the current Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, is locked in a tense struggle with Benyamin Netanyahu to become Prime Minister.)

And so earlier this week "Israel's cabinet approved a possible operation that could last several days". There were the near-obligatory visits by Israeli officials, including Livni, and Hamas leaders to Egypt playing the near-obligatory role of mediator for a renewed ceasefire. It was clear, however, from the statements of Livni and Netanyahu that the Israeli hammer would have to fall, at least for a deadly, symbolic period.

That has now begun. Israel will count on a window of support from many in the "gatekeeping" media in the United States and Europe; Hamas, or at least the people of Gaza, will get the sympathy of media in the Middle East and the Islamic world. Precious little will be done to ratchet down the violence as it plays out for a necessary period for both Hamas to maintain its authority in Gaza (which it will) and for key Israeli politicans --- with Livni and Netanyahu scrambling to show which one of them is tougher --- and the Israeli military to show that they are not "weak". (Doubly so, after the Lebanon debacle of 2006)

All this will be propped up by the human cost --- in damage and a handful of deaths on the Israeli side of the border, in damage and dozens if not hundreds of death on the Gazan side. The causes of this latest conflict will be set aside because, with eye-catching images of destruction, who needs to seriously consider the strategy of political isolation and economic blockade that pretty much ensured this would happen?

There is a wrinkle in this normal pattern of events, which could occur over days, possibly over weeks. Normally the US Government would have to --- reluctantly, in the case of the Bush Administration --- make some noise about trying to restore stability while allowing Israel a "decent" period of time to assert military strength.

This time, however, Washington is in transition to President Obama. He has offered the platitude that "seeing if we can build on some of the progress, at least in conversation, that's been made around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be a priority". If this fighting carries on until Inauguration Day, however, the 44th President won't be dealing with platitudes but with a foreign-policy choice foisted upon him. Does he --- in the name of "American leadership" --- put Israel-Palestine at the top of his problem-solving agenda or does he take a step aside, allowing others to make the running both as warriors and as peacemakers?

Happy Holidays, everybody....

Gaza Update: Israel Talks Tough As Crisis Looms

As we feared yesterday, the Israel-Gaza situation has been framed as a military standoff between rocket attacks into southern Israel and Israeli military incursions into Gaza. At least 20 rockets were fired into southern Israel, while two Israeli air raids.

There has been a worrying escalation of rhetoric from Israel, especially from the two candidates --- Tzipi Lvini and Benyamin Netanyahu --- vying to replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Olmert has been cautious, saying, "A responsible government doesn't rush into battle, neither does it shy away"; however, both Lvini and Netanyahu have pledged to "topple the Hamas rule in Gaza".



A large-scale Israeli offensive is unlikely during the electoral campaign; instead, there will be a series of bombings and targeted assassinations as the rocket attacks continue. In effect, this is a situation of deadly stalemate.

Deadly in economic as well as military terms. The latest news from Gaza is the World Bank's warning of a shortage of currency, which in turn will bring the economy to a standstill.