Gaza and Domestic Politics: A Reader Comments

A reader from Turkey has offered these shrewd observations. I don't think Israeli domestic politics is the primary motive for the operation --- remember, it was planned back in June --- but it is a supporting reason that may have accelerated the Israeli attack.


Would you agree with me that I think the basic stimulus behind the ongoing Israeli operations in Gaza is beyond the worries growing out of the terrorist attacks of Hamas and the weariness of these rockets into the Israeli territory? It is basically an internal problem. As Netanyahu, Livni and Barak are going to run for the elections in February, each of them are trying to show more decisiveness in responding attacks. And each move is pulling others to come into a harder-line position which brings the Israeli politics into a vicious circle.



Secondly, this has been a an important test for the Obama administration. His pro-Israeli discourses (which have been one of the most pro-Israeli discourses since George W. Bush) were tested and Obama has not stated any seriously negative comment for the operation in Gaza. Moreover, this operation probably made some neocons really happy cause they are going to leave a bomb in the Middle East in Democrats' hands.

The ongoing economic crisis and the Middle Eastern issue are going to put pressure on the Obama administration and the more pressure Obama feels on his shoulders, the more public support Republicans get with the "necessities" of the "significance of the war on terrorism" and "the importance of Israel" as a strategic ally for the US. As a result, the Obama administration will be bound to draw its line closer to conservative perceptions.

Gaza Update (2 p.m. Israel, 7 a.m. Eastern US): The Israeli War Continues, Fuel and Food Crisis in Gaza

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5osk2toY1E[/youtube]

Later Update: Gaza Black Comedy Moments

Israel has rejected a French proposal for a truce to allow aid into Gaza. Using the same line put forward by the US Government on Tuesday, Israeli spokesman Mark Regev insisted on "a real and sustainable solution", one that would "not [be] a Band-Aid that will just kick the can down the road".

Regev's statement, however, hides division in the Israeli Cabinet, which discussed the French proposal for four hours. According to The Daily Telegraph, Minister of Defense Ehud Barak supported the two-day truce but was overruled by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Lvini.



There is no fuel and electricity in Gaza, as Israeli airstrikes on Wednesday again hit the offices of Gazan Prime Minister Ismail Haniya and the Interior Ministry. The Israelis also reinforced their economic stranglehold by bombing the "lifeline" for Gaza, the tunnels connecting it to Egypt.

The European Union again called for "an unconditional halt to rocket attacks by Hamas on Israel and an end to Israeli military action". Gulf Arab leaders agreed on a demand for a cease-fire but unsurprisingly, given Saudi Arabia's backing of the Palestinian Authority against Hamas, were divided over support for the Government in Gaza.

Negotiations with Syria: The Battle Begins

Unnoticed by many, a complicated dance over talks with Syria --- on a settlement with Israel, on its position vis-a-vis Lebanon, and on its relations with Iran and Hezbollah --- is beginning. For a mix of reasons, some good (finally defusing some of the tension between Tel Aviv and Damascus), some not so good (the mistaken belief that this will mean the isolation of Tehran in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf), serious talks for the first time in almost a decade appear imminent.

Still, Washington firebrands who dreamed of Syrian regime change during the Dubya Years aren't going down without a fight.

The excellent Joshua Landis has this analysis:

Syria is the Only Game in Town

Syria is the only game in town for those wishing to advance peace between Arabs and Israel. This has the Jewish right apoplectic. Danielle Pletka, who worked under John Bolton in the State Department, tries sarcasm and insults in her "The Syrian Strategy" to embarrass those who would advance this strategy.

Barry Rubin, publisher of MERIA journal and author of The Truth About Syria gathered several Washington Institute types such as Patrick Clawson and David Schenker and other likeminded policy types to tell Americans that they are foolish to negotiate with Syria and Iran. Equally foolish is to try to make peace between Arabs and Jews or to withdraw from Iraq anytime soon. Rubin knowingly asserts that Obama’s “belief, that [America] can make friends with Iran and Syria, soothe grievances that have caused Islamism and terrorism, and solve the Arab-Israeli conflict …. is a miscalculation about the Middle East.”

Americans perennially make the mistake of viewing the Middle East “in Western terms,” Rubin informs us, which leads “to frustration and even disaster.” Why? Because “You have to inspire fear in your enemies.” “Unfortunately, the change they want means wiping other states off the map.”

This “good versus evil” world view is repeated by the other participants of this round table, who seem to be nodding at each other in their desire to sound the toxin of existential extinction should the new administration lift its foot off the throat of its Arab and Persian enemies. The US’s only choice is to keep its many enemies in the region in a state of abject fear.

David Schenker explains that Bush viewed Bashar al-Assad as “basically as irredeemable.” Schenker basically agrees. He worries that ”Obama appears to believe that Syria can play a more productive role in the region.” To Schenker’s chagrin, even “Dennis Ross, himself who is being mentioned as the possible Middle East coordinator has written that Assad should be tested.” Dennis Ross is The Washington Institute’s counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow. David Schenker is a senior fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute.

Schenker concedes that if Syria were to flip, and cut its relations with Iran and “jettison Hizballah and Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups and move into the Western camp,” it would be a good thing. Like, Barry Rubin, Schenker clearly does not expect Syria to do any such thing. To guard against the Golan being given away for what he seems to believe will be nothing, Schenker will have to police the Obama administration and encourage it to make many up front demands for change.

He and his colleagues will work assiduously to hang all kinds of Christmas balls and bobbles on the engagement tree, such that it is hard to imagine any progress or deal being struck. In order to protect her flank from such criticism, Israel’s foreign minister Livni reassured Israelis that she would be tough and not accept a “humus” peace. She said,

“What is important to us is not a peace of opening embassies and eating Humus in Damascus, but the halting of arms smuggling through Syria to Hezbollah, their strong ties to Iran and their endless support of terrorist organizations such as Hamas,” said the foreign minister.

Olmert has defended his drive to continue negotiations:

Referring to the ongoing indirect talks, Olmert said “the talks with Syria were thorough and important. Removing Syria from the radical axis is one of Israel’s top priorities.”"Tough sacrifices will be required,” Olmert said, “but the prevention of lost lives is worth it. Syria is not interested in belonging to the axis of evil and wants to forge ties with the U.S.”

For his part, Bashar al-Assad also has demands and wants to tamp down expectations that he flip. He wants Israelis to agree on the exact 1967 Golan borders so that the two sides will not get stuck in Geneva as they did in 2000 with very different expectations about borders. Assad also told European diplomats that he isn’t responsible for restraining Hezbollah, and won’t be “Israel’s bodyguard.”

Syrian President Bashar Assad has told a number of European foreign ministers and senior diplomats this month that he would not lift a finger to restrain Hezbollah’s arming in Lebanon. “I am not Israel’s bodyguard,” he reportedly said…. On the one hand, the officials said their impression was that the Syrian president was serious about negotiations, but that Assad’s positions remained uncompromising.

The source said Assad told the Europeans that Syria was willing to take significant steps in talks with Israel only after an Israeli declaration that it would withdraw from the entire Golan Heights.

Assad refuses to make concessions before he gets guarantees about withdrawal. Israel will also refuse to make concessions until it has guarantees.

Gaza Update: Israel Talks Tough As Crisis Looms

As we feared yesterday, the Israel-Gaza situation has been framed as a military standoff between rocket attacks into southern Israel and Israeli military incursions into Gaza. At least 20 rockets were fired into southern Israel, while two Israeli air raids.

There has been a worrying escalation of rhetoric from Israel, especially from the two candidates --- Tzipi Lvini and Benyamin Netanyahu --- vying to replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Olmert has been cautious, saying, "A responsible government doesn't rush into battle, neither does it shy away"; however, both Lvini and Netanyahu have pledged to "topple the Hamas rule in Gaza".



A large-scale Israeli offensive is unlikely during the electoral campaign; instead, there will be a series of bombings and targeted assassinations as the rocket attacks continue. In effect, this is a situation of deadly stalemate.

Deadly in economic as well as military terms. The latest news from Gaza is the World Bank's warning of a shortage of currency, which in turn will bring the economy to a standstill.