Gaza Update (10 p.m. Israel; 3 p.m. Eastern US): A Truce Offer Which Will Go Nowhere

Today's diplomatic news is the reported offer by Khaled Mashaal, the Hamas leader in exile in Damascus, of a cease-fire via the Russian Foreign Ministry. The condition is that Israel release its economic blockade of Gaza.

The approach, unfortunately, will be a non-starter. Even if Mashaal rather than the local Hamas leadership in Gaza speaks for the party, Tel Aviv will respond by saying that it will not lift the blockade in advance of a Hamas declaration of a cessation of rocket and mortar attacks. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert launched his own pre-emptive diplomatic strike to this effect, saying, "We did not enter this operation in order to end it with the firing still continuing."

So, for now, it looks like more of the same with continued Israeli military operations and diplomatic manoeuvrings by each side --- Israel to keep open a window for its attack and attempt to break Hamas, Hamas to mobilise international as well as local opinion for long-term political advantage.

Gaza Update (2 p.m. Israel, 7 a.m. Eastern US): The Israeli War Continues, Fuel and Food Crisis in Gaza

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5osk2toY1E[/youtube]

Later Update: Gaza Black Comedy Moments

Israel has rejected a French proposal for a truce to allow aid into Gaza. Using the same line put forward by the US Government on Tuesday, Israeli spokesman Mark Regev insisted on "a real and sustainable solution", one that would "not [be] a Band-Aid that will just kick the can down the road".

Regev's statement, however, hides division in the Israeli Cabinet, which discussed the French proposal for four hours. According to The Daily Telegraph, Minister of Defense Ehud Barak supported the two-day truce but was overruled by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Lvini.



There is no fuel and electricity in Gaza, as Israeli airstrikes on Wednesday again hit the offices of Gazan Prime Minister Ismail Haniya and the Interior Ministry. The Israelis also reinforced their economic stranglehold by bombing the "lifeline" for Gaza, the tunnels connecting it to Egypt.

The European Union again called for "an unconditional halt to rocket attacks by Hamas on Israel and an end to Israeli military action". Gulf Arab leaders agreed on a demand for a cease-fire but unsurprisingly, given Saudi Arabia's backing of the Palestinian Authority against Hamas, were divided over support for the Government in Gaza.

Gaza: This is an (Israeli) War of Choice

Unlike the confused and improvised Israeli response as the war against Hizbullah in Lebanon unfolded in 2006, Operation Cast Lead appears to have been carefully prepared over a long period.

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A depressing morning of news from Israel and Gaza, with the death toll approaching 400, no end in sight to the bombardment, and a possible Israeli invasion on the ground.



And a depressing morning for so-called analysis. The evasions of moral responsibility by those sanctioning the launching of rockets into Israel and those ordering the bombing of built-up areas in Gaza are matched by columnists like David Aaronovitch ("Let's have a pointless discussion about Gaza and begin it by talking about whether Israel's bombing is 'disproportionate'") and Mary Dejevsky ("The Palestinians of Gaza have worn their victimhood as a badge of honour.")

So as others, such as Benny Morris in The New York Times, rationalise this conflict as a defensive outburst, "Israel’s sense of the walls closing in on it has this past week led to [a] violent reaction," let's be clear:

This is a war of Tel Aviv's choosing.

Picking up on reports in the Israeli press, Ian Black in The Guardian summarises:

[There were] six months of intelligence-gathering to pinpoint Hamas targets including bases, weapon silos, training camps and the homes of senior officials. The cabinet spent five hours discussing the plan in detail on December 19 and left the timing up to Ehud Olmert, the caretaker prime minister, and his defence minister Ehud Barak. Preparations involved disinformation and deception which kept Israel's media in the dark. According to Ha'aretz, that also lulled Hamas into a sense of false security and allowed the initial aerial onslaught to achieve tactical surprise - and kill many of the 290 victims counted so far.

Friday's decision to allow food, fuel and humanitarian supplies into besieged Gaza - ostensibly a gesture in the face of international pressure to relieve the ongoing blockade - was part of this. So was Thursday's visit to Cairo by Tzipi Livni, Israel's foreign minister, to brief Egyptian officials.

As soon as June's truce was agreed, the Israeli Government was not only anticipating its breakdown but laying out its course of action. And that course of action, authorised before a single Israeli died from a rocket or mortar attack, was to strike Hamas (and, incidentally, the Palestinian population) and strike it hard.

I leave it to others to explain why there is no need for moral calculation when considering this chain of events and planning. But, to modify Robert Fisk's comment, "How easy it is to snap off the history of the Palestinians", it seems just as essential (you can supply the reason) to snap off the history of the last six months to make this a simple narrative of rocket-and-reply.

Gaza Update: More than 220 Dead

Latest Update: Pressing the Bombardment

And so the tragedy unfolds.

The death toll from today's Israeli attacks on Gaza is now more than 200 with at least 700 injured. The Israeli Government has made clear that the assault will continue. (Significantly, the statements have come from Defense Minister Ehud Barak --- ""The operation will go on and be intensified as long as necessary" --- and spokesmen for the Israeli Defence Forces. Outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who was less than enthusiastic about an assault, has joined in, "Israel is now seeking to wipe out the terrorism which is trying to undermine the whole area.")


The political leader in Gaza, Ismail Haniya, has made equally clear that Hamas will stand firm. A spokesman emphasized, "We will continue our struggle with absolute strength and steadfastness."

The State Department, predictably, has lined up behind Tel Aviv, blaming the deaths on Hamas' irresponsibility. More intriguing is the quick condemnation of the attacks by Palestinian Authority and West Bank leaders Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad, despite their rivalry with Hamas for political leadership throughout Palestine.

In short, the immediate effect of the Israeli operation is to suspend any other regional initiatives, such as negotiations with the Palestinian Authority to bolster the West Bank and "isolate" Gaza. Of course, Abbas and Fayyad could be playing the game of condemn the attacks in public and applaud them in private but, if that's the case, they will eventually pay the political reaper for selling out Palestinians to the Israeli offensive.

The suspension of political process is redoubled in cases such as a possible Israeli-Syrian rapprochement, given Damascus's support of Hamas. And don't expect the population of the Lebanon to be eagerly embracing a Western narrative of "freedom" that includes these developments.

Negotiations with Syria: The Battle Begins

Unnoticed by many, a complicated dance over talks with Syria --- on a settlement with Israel, on its position vis-a-vis Lebanon, and on its relations with Iran and Hezbollah --- is beginning. For a mix of reasons, some good (finally defusing some of the tension between Tel Aviv and Damascus), some not so good (the mistaken belief that this will mean the isolation of Tehran in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf), serious talks for the first time in almost a decade appear imminent.

Still, Washington firebrands who dreamed of Syrian regime change during the Dubya Years aren't going down without a fight.

The excellent Joshua Landis has this analysis:

Syria is the Only Game in Town

Syria is the only game in town for those wishing to advance peace between Arabs and Israel. This has the Jewish right apoplectic. Danielle Pletka, who worked under John Bolton in the State Department, tries sarcasm and insults in her "The Syrian Strategy" to embarrass those who would advance this strategy.

Barry Rubin, publisher of MERIA journal and author of The Truth About Syria gathered several Washington Institute types such as Patrick Clawson and David Schenker and other likeminded policy types to tell Americans that they are foolish to negotiate with Syria and Iran. Equally foolish is to try to make peace between Arabs and Jews or to withdraw from Iraq anytime soon. Rubin knowingly asserts that Obama’s “belief, that [America] can make friends with Iran and Syria, soothe grievances that have caused Islamism and terrorism, and solve the Arab-Israeli conflict …. is a miscalculation about the Middle East.”

Americans perennially make the mistake of viewing the Middle East “in Western terms,” Rubin informs us, which leads “to frustration and even disaster.” Why? Because “You have to inspire fear in your enemies.” “Unfortunately, the change they want means wiping other states off the map.”

This “good versus evil” world view is repeated by the other participants of this round table, who seem to be nodding at each other in their desire to sound the toxin of existential extinction should the new administration lift its foot off the throat of its Arab and Persian enemies. The US’s only choice is to keep its many enemies in the region in a state of abject fear.

David Schenker explains that Bush viewed Bashar al-Assad as “basically as irredeemable.” Schenker basically agrees. He worries that ”Obama appears to believe that Syria can play a more productive role in the region.” To Schenker’s chagrin, even “Dennis Ross, himself who is being mentioned as the possible Middle East coordinator has written that Assad should be tested.” Dennis Ross is The Washington Institute’s counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow. David Schenker is a senior fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute.

Schenker concedes that if Syria were to flip, and cut its relations with Iran and “jettison Hizballah and Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups and move into the Western camp,” it would be a good thing. Like, Barry Rubin, Schenker clearly does not expect Syria to do any such thing. To guard against the Golan being given away for what he seems to believe will be nothing, Schenker will have to police the Obama administration and encourage it to make many up front demands for change.

He and his colleagues will work assiduously to hang all kinds of Christmas balls and bobbles on the engagement tree, such that it is hard to imagine any progress or deal being struck. In order to protect her flank from such criticism, Israel’s foreign minister Livni reassured Israelis that she would be tough and not accept a “humus” peace. She said,

“What is important to us is not a peace of opening embassies and eating Humus in Damascus, but the halting of arms smuggling through Syria to Hezbollah, their strong ties to Iran and their endless support of terrorist organizations such as Hamas,” said the foreign minister.

Olmert has defended his drive to continue negotiations:

Referring to the ongoing indirect talks, Olmert said “the talks with Syria were thorough and important. Removing Syria from the radical axis is one of Israel’s top priorities.”"Tough sacrifices will be required,” Olmert said, “but the prevention of lost lives is worth it. Syria is not interested in belonging to the axis of evil and wants to forge ties with the U.S.”

For his part, Bashar al-Assad also has demands and wants to tamp down expectations that he flip. He wants Israelis to agree on the exact 1967 Golan borders so that the two sides will not get stuck in Geneva as they did in 2000 with very different expectations about borders. Assad also told European diplomats that he isn’t responsible for restraining Hezbollah, and won’t be “Israel’s bodyguard.”

Syrian President Bashar Assad has told a number of European foreign ministers and senior diplomats this month that he would not lift a finger to restrain Hezbollah’s arming in Lebanon. “I am not Israel’s bodyguard,” he reportedly said…. On the one hand, the officials said their impression was that the Syrian president was serious about negotiations, but that Assad’s positions remained uncompromising.

The source said Assad told the Europeans that Syria was willing to take significant steps in talks with Israel only after an Israeli declaration that it would withdraw from the entire Golan Heights.

Assad refuses to make concessions before he gets guarantees about withdrawal. Israel will also refuse to make concessions until it has guarantees.