Peace on Earth, Goodwill to All Men (Except in Gaza)

Five days ago, after the cessation of the truce between the Israeli Government and Hamas, Enduring America wrote:

There will be a series of bombings and targeted assassinations as the rocket attacks continue. In effect, this is a situation of deadly stalemate.

And so it goes, as Kurt Vonnegut would say. After an increase in rockets into Southern Israel, the Israeli Defense Force swung the heavy fist this morning. More than 30 missiles have killed more than 150 people so far.



We mention our prediction not to brag but to point out the near-inevitability that "the cycle of violence", that over-used but over-appropriate phrase, was going to spiral. Groups in Gaza, either directly responsible to Hamas or independent of the Gazan Government, were going to increase the firing of rockets and missiles. That scatter-gun attack, sooner or later, was going to kill an Israeli, and when it did, both the pretext and the political necessity would be established for a large-scale response from Tel Aviv. (Doubly so, when the current Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, is locked in a tense struggle with Benyamin Netanyahu to become Prime Minister.)

And so earlier this week "Israel's cabinet approved a possible operation that could last several days". There were the near-obligatory visits by Israeli officials, including Livni, and Hamas leaders to Egypt playing the near-obligatory role of mediator for a renewed ceasefire. It was clear, however, from the statements of Livni and Netanyahu that the Israeli hammer would have to fall, at least for a deadly, symbolic period.

That has now begun. Israel will count on a window of support from many in the "gatekeeping" media in the United States and Europe; Hamas, or at least the people of Gaza, will get the sympathy of media in the Middle East and the Islamic world. Precious little will be done to ratchet down the violence as it plays out for a necessary period for both Hamas to maintain its authority in Gaza (which it will) and for key Israeli politicans --- with Livni and Netanyahu scrambling to show which one of them is tougher --- and the Israeli military to show that they are not "weak". (Doubly so, after the Lebanon debacle of 2006)

All this will be propped up by the human cost --- in damage and a handful of deaths on the Israeli side of the border, in damage and dozens if not hundreds of death on the Gazan side. The causes of this latest conflict will be set aside because, with eye-catching images of destruction, who needs to seriously consider the strategy of political isolation and economic blockade that pretty much ensured this would happen?

There is a wrinkle in this normal pattern of events, which could occur over days, possibly over weeks. Normally the US Government would have to --- reluctantly, in the case of the Bush Administration --- make some noise about trying to restore stability while allowing Israel a "decent" period of time to assert military strength.

This time, however, Washington is in transition to President Obama. He has offered the platitude that "seeing if we can build on some of the progress, at least in conversation, that's been made around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be a priority". If this fighting carries on until Inauguration Day, however, the 44th President won't be dealing with platitudes but with a foreign-policy choice foisted upon him. Does he --- in the name of "American leadership" --- put Israel-Palestine at the top of his problem-solving agenda or does he take a step aside, allowing others to make the running both as warriors and as peacemakers?

Happy Holidays, everybody....

Breaking News: Israeli Attacks Kill More than 100 in Gaza

Last week we projected, as the Hamas-Israel truce ended, that the cycle of rocket attacks and Israeli raids would spiral.

The wait is over. After an escalation in the rockets across the border, with the deadly irony that it was two Palestinian schoolgirls who were killed when a missile misfired, the Israeli Defense Forces launched their own deadly strikes against "a series of Hamas targets and infrastructure facilities".

The Israelis are leading with the claim that the Hamas police chief is dead. Information from medical sources and officials in Palestine indicate 120 have been killed and more than 250 wounded.

UPDATE: Scott has posted a more in-depth analysis here.

Gaza Update: Israel Talks Tough As Crisis Looms

As we feared yesterday, the Israel-Gaza situation has been framed as a military standoff between rocket attacks into southern Israel and Israeli military incursions into Gaza. At least 20 rockets were fired into southern Israel, while two Israeli air raids.

There has been a worrying escalation of rhetoric from Israel, especially from the two candidates --- Tzipi Lvini and Benyamin Netanyahu --- vying to replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Olmert has been cautious, saying, "A responsible government doesn't rush into battle, neither does it shy away"; however, both Lvini and Netanyahu have pledged to "topple the Hamas rule in Gaza".



A large-scale Israeli offensive is unlikely during the electoral campaign; instead, there will be a series of bombings and targeted assassinations as the rocket attacks continue. In effect, this is a situation of deadly stalemate.

Deadly in economic as well as military terms. The latest news from Gaza is the World Bank's warning of a shortage of currency, which in turn will bring the economy to a standstill.

Gaza Update: It's the Economy, Stupid....

For me, the second most important story on Thursday about Gaza was the breakdown of the truce between Hamas and the Israeli military.

The most important --- although I suspect you may not have seen it --- was this: "UN agency suspends Gaza food aid". The combination of the Israeli blockade and rocket fire meant that stocks of wheat flour ran out, cutting off assistance to the 20,000 people per day who rely on the agency. (A total of 750,000 in Gaza are dependent on food aid.)

Dig a bit deeper, and the following hard-core facts --- which of course are all too evident to those in Gaza --- emerge. Unemployment is now at 49 percent, up from 32 percent a year ago. Most people are without power for up to 16 hours a day, Many residents of Gaza City are without power for up to 16 hours a day, and half receive water (80 percent of which is substandard) only once a week for a few hours, the report said. A UN report calls the situation "a human dignity crisis".

A couple of British and American newspapers, after their eye-catching headlines on the truce breakdown and "rocket attacks" did deign to report that economic and social news. The New York Times, for example, wrote:

Hamas officials say it was their understanding at the time that two weeks after the June 19 accord took effect Israel would open the crossings and allow the transfer of goods that had been banned or restricted after June 2007.

However, deliveries increased only from 70 to 90 truckloads a day, compared with 500 to 600 before June 2007. The outcome? Ameera Ahmed, a Gaza resident who struggles to find even the formula needed for her six-month-old daughter, writes in The Observer:

During the months of the blockade, everything in my life has changed. Before, I would wake up and hope that tomorrow would be better than today. But it never happened. The reason is simple. It is because I live in Gaza, where all dreams and hope vanish because of the situation we live in.

Of course, you can make the snap response that Ahmed and all the other Gazans struggling to make it day-to-day are victims of both the Israeli blockade and the rocket fire from Gaza that is cited as justification for the restrictions. But doing so, you are into a circular argument that cannot be broken, ensuring that this dance of destruction and deprivation is perpetual.

It might be more instructive to ask: will the Israeli blockade really turn the population against Hamas, leading to an effective coup d'etat? Even if that occurred, would it produce the pliant Gazan public that will accept Tel Aviv's conditions for a political settlement? Or is it more likely that a citizenry subjected to this punishment will see its oppressor as Israel, thus stocking up more anger and more resentment for yet more conflict?

There is a way out, in other words, but no one seems willing to put forth the notion of talks between Hamas and the Israeli Government. Instead, we can settle for the farce of an American President reducing Gaza to invisibility as he meets the head of the Palestinian (West Bank) Authority and declares, "People must recognise that we have made a good deal of progress."

Breaking News: Hamas-Israel Cease-Fire To End

According to Al Jazeera, a Hamas official has said --- one day before the truce between Hamas and Israel is to expire --- that "the calm is over".

Ayman Taba said after talks between Palestinian groups in Gaza that the cease-fire would not be renewed "because the enemy did not abide by its obligations" to ease the economic blockade and halt military operations.

The Israeli Government has not yet responded to the announcement.