Israel: The Political Collapse of Opposition Leader Livni?

Israeli politics is in the midst of a political shift which could doom opposition leader Tzipi Livni.

Amidst Livni's accusation that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been trying to split her Kadima Party and the reaction of Netanyahu's associates that it was "actually Livni herself trying to ditch [Netanyahu's] Likud [Party]," at least six Kadima members of the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, signed a document for Netanyahu's adviser Yitzhak Molho last week, committing themselves to leave Kadima.

The legislators that leave Kadima are expected to form a new faction.. As soon as they number seven, which is the minimum legal requirement to split off from the party, each of those who then move to Likud will become a minister, deputy minister, or Knesset committee chairman.

Livni has been in a very difficult position because of her inability to unite her party against the bill for a referendum on the Golan Heights, taken from Syria in the 1967 war. The recent British arrest warrant for Livni was seen as a stroke of luck for her. However, it now appears that the "secret transfer war" between Kadima and Likud will be a victory for Netyanahu and possibly the political downfall of Livni.

The Prime Minister is playing the internal game well. His strong criticisms of the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War, harsh discourse on Iran, warnings to the Lebanese government, and, most importantly, his "one-time and temporary" emphasis on the settlement freeze --- standing up to a US Government which sees this as an "inconvenience" --- have met the demands of his center-right constituency. Livni, on the other hand, now looks a politician without a base.

Comments

[picard]

Interesting -- if depressing. So if we read this candidly, is it fair to say that "the ole democratic peace theory" has yet another problem? e.g., for a politician to do well in Israel, it seems "he" must be an ultra hawk, committed to bellicosity, to beating the war drums, to supporting policies (settlements, etc.) least likely to result in sustainable deals with adversaries, etc. ??

Anybody want to try to rescue the dp theory in this case? (e.g., to pull a John Owen?) :-}

[Noah David Simon]

this is a Trojan horse for the right wing in Israel. Bibi will no longer depend on Israel Betanyu for power. This will enable Bibi to cater to the whims of Obama and that is a very bad thing because Bibi is obviously very willing to not work for Israel's interests. Bibi froze growth in Judea and Samaria for Jewish people only with Obama's endorsed ethnic cleansing. Bringing in Kadima will just further the compromising goals that Bibi has enabled.