Israel: The Political Collapse of Opposition Leader Livni?

Israeli politics is in the midst of a political shift which could doom opposition leader Tzipi Livni.

Amidst Livni's accusation that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been trying to split her Kadima Party and the reaction of Netanyahu's associates that it was "actually Livni herself trying to ditch [Netanyahu's] Likud [Party]," at least six Kadima members of the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, signed a document for Netanyahu's adviser Yitzhak Molho last week, committing themselves to leave Kadima.

The legislators that leave Kadima are expected to form a new faction.. As soon as they number seven, which is the minimum legal requirement to split off from the party, each of those who then move to Likud will become a minister, deputy minister, or Knesset committee chairman.

Livni has been in a very difficult position because of her inability to unite her party against the bill for a referendum on the Golan Heights, taken from Syria in the 1967 war. The recent British arrest warrant for Livni was seen as a stroke of luck for her. However, it now appears that the "secret transfer war" between Kadima and Likud will be a victory for Netyanahu and possibly the political downfall of Livni.

The Prime Minister is playing the internal game well. His strong criticisms of the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War, harsh discourse on Iran, warnings to the Lebanese government, and, most importantly, his "one-time and temporary" emphasis on the settlement freeze --- standing up to a US Government which sees this as an "inconvenience" --- have met the demands of his center-right constituency. Livni, on the other hand, now looks a politician without a base.

Analysis: Israel's Netanyahu "Helpless" Against Right-Wing Protests?

Is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in trouble with the growing opposition to his "concessions" regarding the status of West Bank settlements, Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights?

On Wednesday, the Knesset voted in favour of continuing legislative work on the Golan Heights and Jerusalem Referendum Bill, by an overwhelming majority of 68 to 22, with one abstention. The bill requires that any withdrawal from east Jerusalem, the Golan, or another area under Israeli sovereignty would first have to go to a referendum.

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More than one-third of legislators from the "centrist" party Kadima supported the bill and the majority of Labor ministers were absent. Defense Minister and Labor member Ehud Barak, who was critical of the bill in debate, still voted in favour whereas the opposition Kadima leader Tzipi Livni voted against.

The first reaction came from Damascus, which was allegedly ready to start peace talks without any preconditions. Syrian sources told the BBC-Arabic radio station: "Israel has already annexed the Golan Heights after conquering the area and as far as we are concerned [the referendum law] makes no difference; every action that Israel would take in the Golan Heights is illegitimate. Israel cannot hold a referendum on land that it does not own."

In a sense, the Knesset vote is only holding the Netanyahu Government to account, given that it called Jerusalem the "undivided & eternal capital" of Israel; stated over and over that this settlement freeze is "one-time and temporary" and expressed the sentiment that "Israel would never withdraw from the Golan Heights". More than 10,000 right-wing protesters gathered on Wednesday in Paris Square in Jerusalem near the Prime Minister's residence to demonstrate against the temporary settlement freeze. And it appears that Netanyahu either heard them or sympathised with them all along. He stated that certain settlements outside of the large blocs in the West Bank would be considered "national priority areas" where settlers will receive benefits in education, employment, and other social provision.

Interpretation? Netanyahu is using the country's "political will", benefiting from the spectre of mass domestic protests to resist to the demands of the international community.