Israel: The Political Collapse of Opposition Leader Livni?

Israeli politics is in the midst of a political shift which could doom opposition leader Tzipi Livni.

Amidst Livni's accusation that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been trying to split her Kadima Party and the reaction of Netanyahu's associates that it was "actually Livni herself trying to ditch [Netanyahu's] Likud [Party]," at least six Kadima members of the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, signed a document for Netanyahu's adviser Yitzhak Molho last week, committing themselves to leave Kadima.

The legislators that leave Kadima are expected to form a new faction.. As soon as they number seven, which is the minimum legal requirement to split off from the party, each of those who then move to Likud will become a minister, deputy minister, or Knesset committee chairman.

Livni has been in a very difficult position because of her inability to unite her party against the bill for a referendum on the Golan Heights, taken from Syria in the 1967 war. The recent British arrest warrant for Livni was seen as a stroke of luck for her. However, it now appears that the "secret transfer war" between Kadima and Likud will be a victory for Netyanahu and possibly the political downfall of Livni.

The Prime Minister is playing the internal game well. His strong criticisms of the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War, harsh discourse on Iran, warnings to the Lebanese government, and, most importantly, his "one-time and temporary" emphasis on the settlement freeze --- standing up to a US Government which sees this as an "inconvenience" --- have met the demands of his center-right constituency. Livni, on the other hand, now looks a politician without a base.