The Latest from Iran (30 December): Rallies and Rumours

2205 GMT: The Iranian regime, as it blames foreign media for fomenting unrest, continues the attempt to block the services. Voice of America and BBC Persian report sustained jamming efforts.

2055 GMT: The Hidden Story? An Iranian activist makes the interesting and important claim that the rumours around Mousavi and Karroubi have obscured a major story tonight --- "500 thugs attacked students with knives and machetes" at Mashhad University. We've got footage of the clash in our video section.

2050 GMT: Nothing has happened to change our opinion of 1915 GMT. We are treating Iranian state media's story of "two opposition figures" fleeing to northern Iran as rumour or disinformation.

2020 GMT: Reuters is carrying the opposition's denial of IRNA's story:

Hossein Karoubi, the son of moderate defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karoubi, said his father and opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi were still in Tehran.

"My father and Mr. Mousavi are in Tehran and IRNA's report is baseless. They are still pursuing the people's demands," Hossein Karoubi told moderate Parlemannews.

2005 GMT: Andrew Sullivan has gotten wind of what appears to be a five minute video of a group of security forces disarming after being surrounded by a crowd of demonstrators. We've added it to today's video page.

1915 GMT: Rumours. We're off on a 90-minute break. At this point, we consider the Islamic Republic News Agency story of the Karroubi/Mousavi flight to northern Iran "unconfirmed", with the possibility that it is either a rumour being elevated to "news" or a regime disinformation campaign.

Both the Karroubi and Mousavi camps have denied the story. It should also be noted that the rumour was being spread earlier today that Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard had been detained, and no confirmation has followed.

BBC Persian is interviewing one of Karroubi's sons about 1930 GMT.

1910 GMT: We've posted footage of demonstrations today at Shahryar Qods Azad and Mashhad Universities.

1905 GMT: The Regime Rally (cont.). Peyke Iran, which has published photos indicating a smaller rally than the "hundreds of thousands" cited by other outlets (see 1853 GMT), is now off-line. (1926 GMT: Website is back up.)

1853 GMT: The Regime Rally. CNN's Shirzad Bozorgmehr claims "hundreds of thousands" at today's gathering. He said that at Vali-e Asr Square, he could not get further because of the dense crowd. From a bridge, he watched an area from Imam Hossein Square to Enghelab Square, a distance of about 18 kilometres (11 miles).

NEW Latest Iran Video: University Protests (30 December)
NEW Iran: The Uncertainties of Oppression and Protest
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Strength of the Regime? (29 December)
Latest Iran Video: Today’s University Protest (29 December)
Iran: A List of the Ashura Detainees
Iran: The Regime’s Fightback?
The Latest on Iran (29 December): A Desperate Swing of the Fist

1850 GMT: Mousavi Denial? It looks like Mousavi camp is also denying the IRNA story of "flight" to northern Iran, informing American ABC News that Mousavi is still in Tehran.

1840 GMT: Karroubi Denial of "Fleeing". Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has denounced reports that his father and Mir Hossein Mousavi "rumours" spread by Iranian state media. Hossein Karroubi says his father is still in Tehran "working for the people".

1820 GMT: Meanwhile, Some Rhetoric. Speaking to the Islamic Association of Students in Europe, the Supreme Leader said the Western condemnation of the recent events in Iran had been prompted by the influence of "Zionist media".

1815 GMT: IRNA on Mousavi and Karroubi? The Islamic Republic News Agency's account says two "riot leaders fled from Tehran" to Mazandaran amidst "demands for their punishment".

1810 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi in "Protective Custody"? Returned from a break to find Rah-e-Sabz is checking an Islamic Republic News Agency that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have been taken to a small town, Kalar Abad, in Mazandaran in northern Iran "for their protection" under the watch of Ministry of Intelligence and Revolutionary Guard forces. Rah-e-Sabz cautions that this might be a falsehood.

We are urgently checking the news.

1410 GMT: The office of reformist member of Parliament Nasrullah Torabi has been set on fire.

1403 GMT: The "Millions" and Ahmadinejad. Press TV is pushing the line that "millions" turned out today to demonstrate for the regime and against the Ashura "rioters", showing claimed footage from Shiraz, Tabriz, Gilan, Arak, and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as Tehran. Press TV is backing this up with coverage of the Maryam Rajavi statement (see 1000 GMT) as proof of MKO "terrorist" involvement.

The station also briefly features President Ahmadinejad's statement, issued after a Cabinet meeting, that "efforts to destabilise Iran would not affect the nation".  and that the US and Western leaders should learn from their past mistakes.

1335 GMT: Rahnavard Arrested? Meanwhile, we're watching closely the rumour, which began circulating about an hour ago, that the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, has been detained.

1308 GMT: That's pretty much it, as Press TV goes back to the studio for the anchorwoman and "analyst" (journalist Nader Mokhtari) to repeat the standard line of "masses" of "religious" Iranian people standing against a foreign-stimulated opposition.

However, mark this exchange: Mokhtari and the anchorwoman are at great pains to say "this isn't a pro-Ahmadinejad rally....this has absolutely nothing to do with the President of Iran". is not over the issue of legitimacy of President Ahmadinejad but "an outpouring of grief" and "the support of the establishment". Could this be a distancing of the defence of the regime from a defence of the President?

1258 GMT: Now the emphasis is on the "greatness" and "magnanimity" of the regime based on "religious jurisprudence", with the Iranian people as a model for all Muslims. However, "we should not remain passive" any longer and "we should take the initiative" against those plotting conspiracies.

1255 GMT: And Now the Warning. Ayatollah Alamalhoda says that a deadline should be set for repentance. If protesters do not repent, they should be treated as "mohareb" (enemies of God), with the attendant punishment.

1250 GMT: Heavy criticism of those responsible for "fighting" on Ashura: "the Leader of the Islamic Revolution invited the rioters to return to the right path".

1243 GMT: Speeches have begun with tagline, "We have to accept rule of current religious jurisprudence." Quickly, the theme is that the United States is pushing the "party of Satan" protesting against the Iranian regime.

The speaker is Ayatollah Alamalhoda, the Friday Prayer leader of Mashhad.

1236 GMT: A wider shot around the Press TV correspondent ("Iranian nation" against the "disrespect" of Ashura, 16 Azar, etc.) establishes that there are thousands in Enghelab Square.

1230 GMT: Etc., etc. Nothing new to report from the rally. You can just put our comments from 1147 to 1208 GMT, like the Press TV coverage, on a loop and replay....

....Adding this: "a red line has been crossed", according to the anchorwomen, with the opposition's demonstrations and disrespect on Ashura.

1208 GMT: Press TV's correspondent finally shows up on camera in a fairly tight shot, surrounded by a few dozen protesters. That doesn't stop her from claiming "millions" have turned out. Ominously, she emphasises the line that demonstrators are demanding the "punishment" of opposition leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1206 GMT: Ahh, Those Two Locations. It is now clear --- for those who have recorded this historic moment, follow a large black flag being fluttered --- that Press TV is claiming "two locations" for two shots from different angles of the rally in Enghelab Square.

1205 GMT: Press TV keeps trying to go to a correspondent, but she is still failing to show up "because the crowd is so loud" that she cannot find a location for the interview with studio.

1157 GMT: A Glitch in the Line? The Press TV anchorman rambles on and says, against a split-screen purportedly showing the rallies, that shots are of protests in "two different locations" in Tehran. However, he never names those locations.

Otherwise, this is the narrative: "MKO-Foreign Governments inciting violence, particuarly Foreign Minister David Miliband of the UK-Also President Obama-MKO-Foreign Interference".

1147 GMT: Press TV has now cut into programming to show live shots from Tehran. Initial close-range shots of the crowd give way to a long shot which (sorry to be uncertain) may or may not be of today. The anchorman's description is boiler-plate claim of continuing pro-regime demonstrations, with emphasis on rallies on Tuesday as well, against the "vandalism" of the opposition and "its violation of one of the most sacred events on the Muslim calendar".

An addition to the party line, however, is the focus on "MKO terrorists" declaring their role in the Ashura "riots" (see 1000 GMT).

1145 GMT: The Ritual Warning. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has repeated the party line, including the hint of the death penalty, with the declaration, "There is no more room for tolerance over participants in illegal rallies....Those who participate in illegal rallies will be confronted more harshly and the judiciary will confront them more decisively."

Ahmadi-Moghaddam added, "Some of the protesters on Sunday are considered as mohareb (enemy of God) and will be confronted firmly." Capital punishment can be imposed on "mohareb".

1140 GMT: We're watching for first references to the pro-regime protest called for 3 p.m. local time (1130 GMT) in Tehran. So far Press TV English has not cut into its programming to provide an update.

1040 GMT: Death Penalty for Protest? German media are highlighting a statement by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, that the legal structure will be put in place within 24 hours for capital punishment against leaders of demonstrations.

1025 GMT: "The Velvet Revolution" Moves From CNN to IRNA. The Islamic Republic News Agency is also highlighting an interview with US-based academic Kaveh Afrasiabi on CNN as confirmation of foreign intervention against the regime. Afrasiabi told CNN, "We have seen tremendous evidence of meddling, by the UK Government in particular, during and after the Presidential election, and there is no doubt in my mind...that the British Government is determined to see regime change in Iran.

1020 GMT: The Regime Stays Negative. As we ventured in our analysis this morning, the Iranian Government appears to have put aside any attempt at a "positive" campaign to mobilise support in favour of bashing the opposition. The Islamic Republic News Agency is dominated by stories vowing punishment of protesters: Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has taken prime position for the moment with his declaration that the Iran's judiciary will "deal decisively" with the "anti-revolutionary" movement.

Moslehi also maintained the line that "foreign elements" were responsible for "assassinations" on Ashura.

1000 GMT: The Regime's Unexpected Helper? Press TV has jumped on an interview by Maryam Rajavi, the head of the National Council of Resistance in Iran, to headline, "The Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) has acknowledged that it played a role in Sunday's violent anti-government protests in Iran."

The NCRI is the political wing of MKO, which has carried out a violent campaign since 1979 to overthrow the Iranian Government. According to Press TV, Rajavi told Agence France Press that her organisation's followers "cooperated with the demonstrators and coordinated the protests". She supposedly said, "[The protests are] a call for solidarity among all those who reject the rule of the Supreme Leader, the velayat e-faqih....What we call the 'Green movement' against the electoral fraud quickly disappeared to be replaced by a deeper movement whose goal is the total overthrow of the regime."

0915 GMT: How Big Were the Pro-Government Protests? An interesting discussion amongst EA readers overnight of footage from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, supposedly showing thousands of people chanting against "rioters" and for the regime. Authenticity is far from certain --- note the debate in comments below over the trees blurred in the video --- and I am still looking for confirmation in the Iranian press.

Meanwhile, pictures of a rally by Iranian members of Parliament on Tuesday show few demonstrators beyond the MPs.

0845 GMT: We've now posted video claiming to be of the attack on Ayatollah Dastgheib's offices (see 0830 GMT) in Shiraz.

0835 GMT: Uncertainty and Rumour. Testifying to our theme today, a prominent Iranian activist, Mehdi Saharkhiz, has posted an account of a supposed meeting between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, discussing the situation after Ashura.

0830 GMT: The Regime v. The Clerics. Radio Farda has more on the story, which we noted yesterday, of attacks on the offices of Ayatollah Sane'i and Ayatollah Dastghaib in Mashhad and Shiraz.

0815 GMT: In our special analysis this morning, we began from Iran's settling into "tensions of uncertainty" after the Ashura demonstrations and the regime's fightback with widespread arrests.

The uncertainty is evident this morning in news that the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Seyed Ali Mousavi, is buried in Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, reportedly after only the Government gave only a few hours' notice that the body should now be laid to rest. No prizes for guessing why, as the regime tries to limit any post-Ashura rallies --- Seyed Ali Mousavi was killed in Sunday's demonstrations.

Or, to be precise, post-Ashura rallies of the opposition. The regime's other gambit today is the call for a mass pro-Government demonstration in Tehran. The uncertainty, even with reports that "thousands" gathered on Monday and Tuesday to condemn the "rioters" of Ashura, is whether this demonstration will be a substantive indication of widespread support, especially for President Ahmadinejad.

And then there are the uncertainties that go beyond today's events. Consider, for example, how a rumour without any clear evidence is now "news". The Twitter chatter on Sunday was that a jet, with an escort of military fighters, was ready at Mehrabad Airport for the Supreme Leader to fly to Russia. Yesterday, that chatter, backed up by a mysterious fax, turned into "news" on Radio Netherlands, and today it is worthy of publication in The Huffington Post.

Comments

[ange paris]

If they begin to put death sentences to green protesters, they sign for their own's; I couldn't imagine this huge uprising !!
BYE BYE Islamic regime !!

[Jim]

Hi Scott & Others
Please value your time and do not let Jim goose waste your time. The issue is very serious and the Iranian regime out of desperation has used old films to manupulate pictures as current, a good example of this their friday prayers that still are using shots from late Taleghani's Friday prayers.
This regome has lost even lost the legitemacy that it did not have after Ashura.
We should focus on finding common points among the opposition ant think of unity and the ways we can tolerate each other in the opposition camp and promte democtatic behaviours and Ideals.
The NCRI, MOK have long been fighting their own way for democracy without bothering other opposition groups including monarchists unless they have been the subject of attacks by individulas/groups trying to please the dictatorship.
Jim

[Scott Lucas]

Catherine,

Thanks for this --- about to watch it, as EA's Chris Emery was supposed to be a guest but was foiled by lack of staff at BBC studio in Birmingham.....

S.

[JimGoose]

Scott,

The jet to Russia fax was analyzed and debunked by Omid Habibinia, former employee of IRIB (according to wiki)

here is the link: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=4509650&o=all&op=1&view=all&subj=77592399671&aid=-1&id=532664847

he's appeared often on VoA, and his facebook profile lists him as BBC so I assumed he works for them, but maybe that was a premature assumption

@Julianus and Afshin

you're right, it's not half, its 38% that live in rural areas, but that is still a large number to draw support from, and all of the Basijis are volunteers - so they do have support.

and again, you're right that they have investments, but the sanctions on the regime make it harder for them to leave and launder money

Shah didn't have to worry sanctions, and last time i checked, there was no vacation home in the Bahamas owned by Khamanei

they also were not educated abroad like the Shah and his family, so they have even less connections

what country would take them besides Venezula and North Korea? I doubt Russia would take them.

[Scott Lucas]

JimGoose,

Thanks for link on fax....

S.

[JimGoose]

Jim,

The MKO, NCRI are listed as a Terrorist organization by The United States, Canada, and UK and rightfully so.

They were funded and paid during the Iran-Iraq war by Saddam Huessein, while he mercilessly gassed Iranians. After the 2003 invasion of Iraq, hundreds of VHS tapes from Saddam's palaces were uncovered. They contained footage and documentation of meetings Saddam's staff held with officials and visitors. Amongst them is a video of The Mujahiden Khalq (MKO / NCRI) leader of the time (husband of Mrs. Rajavi) greeting and embracing Saddam's officials, discussing the war against Iran, and being paid.

They made a last ditched effort to attack Tehran at the end of that war and were crushed, but their army base in Camp Ashraf stands today.

They also have a cult following whereby they encourage their followers to commit self-immolation if any of their leaders are arrested! Such as when their leader Maryam Rajavi was arrested in 2003 in France

That is not a group that should be spearheading Iran's democratic movement.

[Catherine]

RE Jimgooose at 11.31 "what country would take them besides Venezula and North Korea? I doubt Russia would take them."

Syria.

[JimGoose]

Syria is unnervingly close to the Mossad's reach... which is quite long to begin with. So i don't know about that one.

[Afshin]

@ JimGoose

From what I see this regime has had in the past at the best 20% support and has now less then 5%. This does not mean that 95% of the population is against the Islamic Republic but that they are against this regime. Even in the rural areas.

The uneducated rural populations is still in the Feaudalic system where religion plays a big role. However the effect of religion is more in the hands of the local clergy, the ayatollahs and the Marja's and not the S.L. The current regime has the CLERGY as one of its biggest enemies.

On the Highest level, Montazeri, Sistani, Sane'i, Dastgheyb, Zanjani, Shirazi Mousavi, Taheri and even Ayatollah Amoli and Amini, On a Lower level Karoubi (very populair on rural area's) Khatami, Nateq Nouri and so on and so forth...

The biggest reason why the current goverment is in such DEEP TROUBLE and has no answer to is because that the Clergy have turned their backs against them. So they can not succesfully make this an attack on Islam and the revolution. This because Islam is actually against them.

The opposition has all the big names and who does the regime have !!?

Khamenei - A low ranking celeric not accepted by the other clergy even as an Ayatollah let alone Marja.

Jannati and Mesbah Yazdi - Both considered HOJJATIEH who were against Khomeini, were outlawed by Khomeini and who had close contact and were supported by SAVAK.

These are their 3 big names within the clergy !!!

If you are making claims please either support them with facts or with a theory/ scientific backing that is proven. Rural areas are and have always been in the hands of Clergy (Religion) that is one of the important criteria's of any Feaudalistic society and will always be the case. Recently the same Religion/ Clergy has turned his back on the S.L, the Guards and hence this regime.

[Afshin]

Ps. Regarding the countries that would take them ? There is always a place for men with money. Maybe not the top but for the ones below them there is always a place.

Even shah had almost no place to go and had to go to Egypt. Non of his old allies would take him. US, UK etc etc all left him out to dry.

As for Khamenei it would be even worse. Even if anyone takes him it would be in secracy and not openly.

[Jim]

@Jim Goose
Jim, you have difficulty getting your facts right. First you thought 50% of iranan population are rural and supporting AN which indirecty supporting AN's claim of winning the election as he claimed. Secondly, NCRI is not in any terrorist list. Thirdly, MOK is loosely in the US list to please the Mollah's hoping to get an deal out of it and not in EU. Remember the european court case the MOK won against UK.
Do you remember the picture of other leaders eg Ramsfeld with the guy. You better not waste time and the revolution progress and people decide their destiny when it comes to a free election in free Iran.
Jim

[JimGoose]

Afshin,

thanks for that info. I didn't know the complexities of Religion that existed in the rural areas

so all the clerics in Qom have turned their back on the regime too?

[JimGoose]

Jim, how about this , lets hear Afshin's opinions on the MKO/NCRI ok?

From my knowledge, the leader of the NCRI is the wife of the leader of the militant terrorist organization MKO.

And yes I remember the video of Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam, what does that have anything to do with it?

I'm talking about a video of Massoud Rajavi shaking Saddam's hand to discuss the war against his OWN country. Shaking hands with a guy who was waging a war on Iran at the time using chemical weapons and where Saddam equated Iranians to "flies and maggots" and in his words "the only thing worse than jews"

And you are praising Maryam Rajavi, the wife of the criminal who allied himself with Saddam to gas and kill Iranians? LOL you have your facts more screwed up than I have mine :P

[Seyedkam]

Just in case you are wondering where these pro government demonstrations are coming from you should check this out (From Jaras website):

Translation:
Saipa (one of the largest car plants in Iran) workers have received letters from their employee inviting them to take part in today’s government-backed “spontaneous” demonstration. Saipa employees were told there would be busses waiting to take them to the demonstration were they would also be joined by their plant director.

[Jim]

@Goose
You are again basing your comments on your assumption. How do you know I support any of these groups. You don't even read the coments. You base your writing on pre-judgement. I am talking about a free Iran and free election. Joining forces in changing the Iranian crulest dictator ship to a democracy with minimal cost. I would like to see Reza Pahlavi in future Iranian Politics even if he had to relinquish its clain on Monarchy.
These are hard time and we have to unite as we did behind Mossavi although he was Khomeinis favourate prime Minister or Khatami practically wasting 8 years doing minimum paving the road for AN's take over. I am used to forget and forgive and look on the bright side.
NCRI is still the most organised ,supported and resilliant group in Iranian politics and I find it hard ignoring them now and in the future.
By the way, the Iran/Iraq war issue is alot more complex to be analysed by you. It requires a lot of reading and remembering including the period leading to war when khomeini came to power stating his wishes to export the islamic regime to Iraq/Saudi/Kuwait and liasing with A..Sadre to start uprising. Sorry that I can not waste other blogger's time reminding of the complexity of these issues including their multifaceted aspects.
Down with the Mollahs and Viva freedom/democracy and free election.
Jim

[Seyedkam]

And here is why the Ashura protest became so violent:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wr1LKpXgvrk

Funny thing is the chief of police says that this vehicle was stolen before the incident.
Yes we all believe him.
Source: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=11485

[Afshin]

@JimGoose

I would not say all. But it is a fact that the majority of the known, loved and followed Marja's and Ayatollahs and the majority of the Clerics have turned their backs on this regime.

Just look at the videos and pictures of the Qom Rally (no bluring, no photoshop, nothing) and also the situation in Najafabad. These are highly highly islamic cities.

If you look at the list of the Marjas and major Clerical families it is astonishing how many are attacking the regime.

That I believe is tha main fight in Iran. The Guards vs the Old Clerical establishment

[Catherine]

Check this out - photos on Mehdi Saharkhiz's site that clearly show protesters on that bridge in Tehran being shot at. Click on photos to enlarge. Shooters are circled. Are these police or plainclothes?
http://onlymehdi.saharkhiz.net/archives/195859574

[Seyedkam]

Another video of Iranian Police attacking mourners (During Ashura):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7nkELbZ9fc&feature=player_embedded

[Afshin]

My thoughts of Rajjavi's is anything but pleasant. The fact that they are claiming involement in the last protests (even if true) is beyond me !!!!

How can u be so vain, so self absorbed, so focussed on own gain that you would gladly give a stick to the goverment to hit the protesters with.

Even if you are helping the folks in Iran, do it is anonimity and dont go shouting it from the roof tops, why is your own party and your own glory so important that you are risking the lives of the people in Iran for !!!

They have now openly given a free warant to the regime to kill, torture and act even more violently against the protestors claiming they are MKO agents acting against the IRI.

The EGO of the Rajavi's is beyond me. I guess it is because they are in the same boat as this regime is. Sinking fast and hanging on for dear life....

[JimGoose]

Jim,

I don't think Iranians inside Iran are as willing to forgive and forget the MKO as you are. I think their recollection of history stretches beyond 5 years and i'm sure even the younger generation considers them as traitors.

As for the Iran/Iraq war and Massoud Rajavi's role in it, and whose side he and the MKO were on, please enlighten me. This is a place where people can learn something and the ones who don't care can simply skip it.

I want to know what other Iranians think

is Maryam Rajavi and Reza Phalavi's involvement in Iran right now a good thing? Can it help the protesters, or give the regime an excuse to crack down harder?

[JimGoose]

Catherine, I'm not sure, but I don't think the regular police are involved in the crack down.

I saw a recent youtube video where police in white jacket uniforms and white hats calmly walked by a big line of protesters defacing public property to make stones, I even saw one wave his hand as if in support and continue walking.

I think those guys are your run of the mill plainclothes Basiji thugs, not wearing their uniforms due to orders to be less obvious

i think they learned their lesson from last June when you could see Basijies on rooftops in full camo gear and riot helmets shooting off AK47s , now they're in plainclothes on consumer motorcylces with pistols i guess

i think if the identities of these shooters are made available in Iran, street justice will take its course?

[Jim]

@Afshin
I agree with Afshina that we should let Iranians inside Iran whom we know areed of all politico/socio/economical classes do the job well as the have don it so far bare handed and leave credit taking/giving to historian when our dear Iran was free.
But my point is that we have to leave room for all as we did for Mosavi/Khatami/Karoubi even Rafsanjani in spite of their direct involvement in the establishment of this crule regime. Thes is when I say forget and for give.
Jim

[Jim]

Note
I was just notified that Zahra Rahnavard has been arrested . This is not confirmed yet but the source is reliable.
Jim

[Jim]

More Info Link
http://www.iranpressnews.com/