The Latest from Iran (30 December): Rallies and Rumours

2205 GMT: The Iranian regime, as it blames foreign media for fomenting unrest, continues the attempt to block the services. Voice of America and BBC Persian report sustained jamming efforts.

2055 GMT: The Hidden Story? An Iranian activist makes the interesting and important claim that the rumours around Mousavi and Karroubi have obscured a major story tonight --- "500 thugs attacked students with knives and machetes" at Mashhad University. We've got footage of the clash in our video section.

2050 GMT: Nothing has happened to change our opinion of 1915 GMT. We are treating Iranian state media's story of "two opposition figures" fleeing to northern Iran as rumour or disinformation.

2020 GMT: Reuters is carrying the opposition's denial of IRNA's story:

Hossein Karoubi, the son of moderate defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karoubi, said his father and opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi were still in Tehran.

"My father and Mr. Mousavi are in Tehran and IRNA's report is baseless. They are still pursuing the people's demands," Hossein Karoubi told moderate Parlemannews.

2005 GMT: Andrew Sullivan has gotten wind of what appears to be a five minute video of a group of security forces disarming after being surrounded by a crowd of demonstrators. We've added it to today's video page.

1915 GMT: Rumours. We're off on a 90-minute break. At this point, we consider the Islamic Republic News Agency story of the Karroubi/Mousavi flight to northern Iran "unconfirmed", with the possibility that it is either a rumour being elevated to "news" or a regime disinformation campaign.

Both the Karroubi and Mousavi camps have denied the story. It should also be noted that the rumour was being spread earlier today that Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard had been detained, and no confirmation has followed.

BBC Persian is interviewing one of Karroubi's sons about 1930 GMT.

1910 GMT: We've posted footage of demonstrations today at Shahryar Qods Azad and Mashhad Universities.

1905 GMT: The Regime Rally (cont.). Peyke Iran, which has published photos indicating a smaller rally than the "hundreds of thousands" cited by other outlets (see 1853 GMT), is now off-line. (1926 GMT: Website is back up.)

1853 GMT: The Regime Rally. CNN's Shirzad Bozorgmehr claims "hundreds of thousands" at today's gathering. He said that at Vali-e Asr Square, he could not get further because of the dense crowd. From a bridge, he watched an area from Imam Hossein Square to Enghelab Square, a distance of about 18 kilometres (11 miles).

NEW Latest Iran Video: University Protests (30 December)
NEW Iran: The Uncertainties of Oppression and Protest
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Strength of the Regime? (29 December)
Latest Iran Video: Today’s University Protest (29 December)
Iran: A List of the Ashura Detainees
Iran: The Regime’s Fightback?
The Latest on Iran (29 December): A Desperate Swing of the Fist

1850 GMT: Mousavi Denial? It looks like Mousavi camp is also denying the IRNA story of "flight" to northern Iran, informing American ABC News that Mousavi is still in Tehran.

1840 GMT: Karroubi Denial of "Fleeing". Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has denounced reports that his father and Mir Hossein Mousavi "rumours" spread by Iranian state media. Hossein Karroubi says his father is still in Tehran "working for the people".

1820 GMT: Meanwhile, Some Rhetoric. Speaking to the Islamic Association of Students in Europe, the Supreme Leader said the Western condemnation of the recent events in Iran had been prompted by the influence of "Zionist media".

1815 GMT: IRNA on Mousavi and Karroubi? The Islamic Republic News Agency's account says two "riot leaders fled from Tehran" to Mazandaran amidst "demands for their punishment".

1810 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi in "Protective Custody"? Returned from a break to find Rah-e-Sabz is checking an Islamic Republic News Agency that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have been taken to a small town, Kalar Abad, in Mazandaran in northern Iran "for their protection" under the watch of Ministry of Intelligence and Revolutionary Guard forces. Rah-e-Sabz cautions that this might be a falsehood.

We are urgently checking the news.

1410 GMT: The office of reformist member of Parliament Nasrullah Torabi has been set on fire.

1403 GMT: The "Millions" and Ahmadinejad. Press TV is pushing the line that "millions" turned out today to demonstrate for the regime and against the Ashura "rioters", showing claimed footage from Shiraz, Tabriz, Gilan, Arak, and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as Tehran. Press TV is backing this up with coverage of the Maryam Rajavi statement (see 1000 GMT) as proof of MKO "terrorist" involvement.

The station also briefly features President Ahmadinejad's statement, issued after a Cabinet meeting, that "efforts to destabilise Iran would not affect the nation".  and that the US and Western leaders should learn from their past mistakes.

1335 GMT: Rahnavard Arrested? Meanwhile, we're watching closely the rumour, which began circulating about an hour ago, that the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, has been detained.

1308 GMT: That's pretty much it, as Press TV goes back to the studio for the anchorwoman and "analyst" (journalist Nader Mokhtari) to repeat the standard line of "masses" of "religious" Iranian people standing against a foreign-stimulated opposition.

However, mark this exchange: Mokhtari and the anchorwoman are at great pains to say "this isn't a pro-Ahmadinejad rally....this has absolutely nothing to do with the President of Iran". is not over the issue of legitimacy of President Ahmadinejad but "an outpouring of grief" and "the support of the establishment". Could this be a distancing of the defence of the regime from a defence of the President?

1258 GMT: Now the emphasis is on the "greatness" and "magnanimity" of the regime based on "religious jurisprudence", with the Iranian people as a model for all Muslims. However, "we should not remain passive" any longer and "we should take the initiative" against those plotting conspiracies.

1255 GMT: And Now the Warning. Ayatollah Alamalhoda says that a deadline should be set for repentance. If protesters do not repent, they should be treated as "mohareb" (enemies of God), with the attendant punishment.

1250 GMT: Heavy criticism of those responsible for "fighting" on Ashura: "the Leader of the Islamic Revolution invited the rioters to return to the right path".

1243 GMT: Speeches have begun with tagline, "We have to accept rule of current religious jurisprudence." Quickly, the theme is that the United States is pushing the "party of Satan" protesting against the Iranian regime.

The speaker is Ayatollah Alamalhoda, the Friday Prayer leader of Mashhad.

1236 GMT: A wider shot around the Press TV correspondent ("Iranian nation" against the "disrespect" of Ashura, 16 Azar, etc.) establishes that there are thousands in Enghelab Square.

1230 GMT: Etc., etc. Nothing new to report from the rally. You can just put our comments from 1147 to 1208 GMT, like the Press TV coverage, on a loop and replay....

....Adding this: "a red line has been crossed", according to the anchorwomen, with the opposition's demonstrations and disrespect on Ashura.

1208 GMT: Press TV's correspondent finally shows up on camera in a fairly tight shot, surrounded by a few dozen protesters. That doesn't stop her from claiming "millions" have turned out. Ominously, she emphasises the line that demonstrators are demanding the "punishment" of opposition leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1206 GMT: Ahh, Those Two Locations. It is now clear --- for those who have recorded this historic moment, follow a large black flag being fluttered --- that Press TV is claiming "two locations" for two shots from different angles of the rally in Enghelab Square.

1205 GMT: Press TV keeps trying to go to a correspondent, but she is still failing to show up "because the crowd is so loud" that she cannot find a location for the interview with studio.

1157 GMT: A Glitch in the Line? The Press TV anchorman rambles on and says, against a split-screen purportedly showing the rallies, that shots are of protests in "two different locations" in Tehran. However, he never names those locations.

Otherwise, this is the narrative: "MKO-Foreign Governments inciting violence, particuarly Foreign Minister David Miliband of the UK-Also President Obama-MKO-Foreign Interference".

1147 GMT: Press TV has now cut into programming to show live shots from Tehran. Initial close-range shots of the crowd give way to a long shot which (sorry to be uncertain) may or may not be of today. The anchorman's description is boiler-plate claim of continuing pro-regime demonstrations, with emphasis on rallies on Tuesday as well, against the "vandalism" of the opposition and "its violation of one of the most sacred events on the Muslim calendar".

An addition to the party line, however, is the focus on "MKO terrorists" declaring their role in the Ashura "riots" (see 1000 GMT).

1145 GMT: The Ritual Warning. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has repeated the party line, including the hint of the death penalty, with the declaration, "There is no more room for tolerance over participants in illegal rallies....Those who participate in illegal rallies will be confronted more harshly and the judiciary will confront them more decisively."

Ahmadi-Moghaddam added, "Some of the protesters on Sunday are considered as mohareb (enemy of God) and will be confronted firmly." Capital punishment can be imposed on "mohareb".

1140 GMT: We're watching for first references to the pro-regime protest called for 3 p.m. local time (1130 GMT) in Tehran. So far Press TV English has not cut into its programming to provide an update.

1040 GMT: Death Penalty for Protest? German media are highlighting a statement by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, that the legal structure will be put in place within 24 hours for capital punishment against leaders of demonstrations.

1025 GMT: "The Velvet Revolution" Moves From CNN to IRNA. The Islamic Republic News Agency is also highlighting an interview with US-based academic Kaveh Afrasiabi on CNN as confirmation of foreign intervention against the regime. Afrasiabi told CNN, "We have seen tremendous evidence of meddling, by the UK Government in particular, during and after the Presidential election, and there is no doubt in my mind...that the British Government is determined to see regime change in Iran.

1020 GMT: The Regime Stays Negative. As we ventured in our analysis this morning, the Iranian Government appears to have put aside any attempt at a "positive" campaign to mobilise support in favour of bashing the opposition. The Islamic Republic News Agency is dominated by stories vowing punishment of protesters: Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has taken prime position for the moment with his declaration that the Iran's judiciary will "deal decisively" with the "anti-revolutionary" movement.

Moslehi also maintained the line that "foreign elements" were responsible for "assassinations" on Ashura.

1000 GMT: The Regime's Unexpected Helper? Press TV has jumped on an interview by Maryam Rajavi, the head of the National Council of Resistance in Iran, to headline, "The Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) has acknowledged that it played a role in Sunday's violent anti-government protests in Iran."

The NCRI is the political wing of MKO, which has carried out a violent campaign since 1979 to overthrow the Iranian Government. According to Press TV, Rajavi told Agence France Press that her organisation's followers "cooperated with the demonstrators and coordinated the protests". She supposedly said, "[The protests are] a call for solidarity among all those who reject the rule of the Supreme Leader, the velayat e-faqih....What we call the 'Green movement' against the electoral fraud quickly disappeared to be replaced by a deeper movement whose goal is the total overthrow of the regime."

0915 GMT: How Big Were the Pro-Government Protests? An interesting discussion amongst EA readers overnight of footage from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, supposedly showing thousands of people chanting against "rioters" and for the regime. Authenticity is far from certain --- note the debate in comments below over the trees blurred in the video --- and I am still looking for confirmation in the Iranian press.

Meanwhile, pictures of a rally by Iranian members of Parliament on Tuesday show few demonstrators beyond the MPs.

0845 GMT: We've now posted video claiming to be of the attack on Ayatollah Dastgheib's offices (see 0830 GMT) in Shiraz.

0835 GMT: Uncertainty and Rumour. Testifying to our theme today, a prominent Iranian activist, Mehdi Saharkhiz, has posted an account of a supposed meeting between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, discussing the situation after Ashura.

0830 GMT: The Regime v. The Clerics. Radio Farda has more on the story, which we noted yesterday, of attacks on the offices of Ayatollah Sane'i and Ayatollah Dastghaib in Mashhad and Shiraz.

0815 GMT: In our special analysis this morning, we began from Iran's settling into "tensions of uncertainty" after the Ashura demonstrations and the regime's fightback with widespread arrests.

The uncertainty is evident this morning in news that the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Seyed Ali Mousavi, is buried in Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, reportedly after only the Government gave only a few hours' notice that the body should now be laid to rest. No prizes for guessing why, as the regime tries to limit any post-Ashura rallies --- Seyed Ali Mousavi was killed in Sunday's demonstrations.

Or, to be precise, post-Ashura rallies of the opposition. The regime's other gambit today is the call for a mass pro-Government demonstration in Tehran. The uncertainty, even with reports that "thousands" gathered on Monday and Tuesday to condemn the "rioters" of Ashura, is whether this demonstration will be a substantive indication of widespread support, especially for President Ahmadinejad.

And then there are the uncertainties that go beyond today's events. Consider, for example, how a rumour without any clear evidence is now "news". The Twitter chatter on Sunday was that a jet, with an escort of military fighters, was ready at Mehrabad Airport for the Supreme Leader to fly to Russia. Yesterday, that chatter, backed up by a mysterious fax, turned into "news" on Radio Netherlands, and today it is worthy of publication in The Huffington Post.

Comments

[Jim]

Link

http://www.iranpressnews.com/

[Catherine]

RE 1147 GMT: An addition to the party line, however, is the focus on “MKO terrorists” declaring their role in the Ashura “riots” (see 1000 GMT).

This will serve as the regime's justification for executing protesters. Just about everyone sentenced to death recently for political reasons has been accused of involvement with the MKO or the Monarchists.

[ange paris]

Green movement has to find quickly a new strategy to escape from this deadlock ! regime is smothering the movement ; May God save our country and our people ! I hope we will not obliged to put up with this regime eternally ! regime is doing eveything possible to imitate China's regime during the events of Tienenman !

[Jim]

The IRI is a criminal dictatorship and requires organisation/focus and unity to fight it. This regime is capable of killing all voices as it proved it in 1983 and 1987.
The ring around the green movement is getting tighter but I do not think it has the energy to succeed and people will find their leaders and defeat the dictatorship once and for all soon.
My Father used to say that once a dictor Mollah rides a donkey there is on way to the donkey's freedom and that it is death.
But Ashura proved that the dictaors and be thrown out hopefully soon.

[Afshin]

@Jim

If and when Iran is elected, the Rajjavi's can come to Iran and enter elections with any party name they want. untill then I am ok with them helping in anyway they can as long as they put a lid on that big mouth of Maryam Rajjavi and stop taking credit for things they did not do and even the things they did do.

As long as they stop using this situation to gain support for their own lost popularity and party. Which they keep doing, despite this putting their own people and people of Iran in great danger.

[Lola LB]

Well, now we know why UK didn't allow the Shah in.

http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/documentsonline/details-result.asp?Edoc_Id=8307484

As for Rajavi . . . I wish that group would just go away.

[Jim]

@Afshin
I agree with you. Nobody should be allowed to take any credit for the current movement. The wounded regime is desperate to deny the autheticity of the movement and is dying to blame an external force for this to discredit the movement as it has always done.
I see the green movement as a unified movement coming to boil being catalysed but many internal issues eg; economy, lack of basic freedom, loss of social cohesion,corruption and international issues as well as lack of hope for future.

[Samuel]

The MKO was involved, end of story. They confirmed what we all knew. Their info from the riots was precise as to the exact number of motorcycles and other vehicles torched, the specific departments to which they belonged etc. even as the riots were taking place. We have a new entity at play, the MKO infused/fortified green movement. Let's just call it MKO/Green or Green/MKO for short.

[Jim]

@Samuel
Please cool down. Do you think MKO has so much force to organise 1million people in Tehran? I have been following the developments closely and do not agree with you. It the youth of Iran becoming active by the above factors specially unemployment and lack of freedom that uses any opportunity to express its dissatisfaction with dictatorship.

[florence achard]

@ange paris,

Don't lose heart, ange! This regime can't last forever for the simple reason that they are stupid! they have wrecked the economy of the country and this, if nothing else will undo them. Sooner or later, there will be strikes, they won't be able to "buy" the basidji's services forever.
It's very different from the situation in China where the booming economy and the improving standards of living help people put up with the regime.
In Iran, there is no hope of improvement in the near future and that should help fuel the dissatisfaction and unrest.

[Jim]

I just checked the Mojahedi's official web site. It seems that the Press TV report is not accurate and Maryam Rajavi was asking for Solidarity between groups as the popular demand is going beyond green movements's original "where is my vote ". Shw mentions that Mojahedin supporters have cooperated with the movement as many other groups, kurds fedaii and monachist might have done.
We should not make a big deal out oth these mis-interpretations as this regime will never run out of excuses or lies.

[Arshama]

@ Samuel
You forgot the other infiltrators of the Greens, the Zionists, British and Americans. I regret that you do not mention all these parties, already mentioned by IRNA ...

@ Jim Goose
Inhabitants from rural areas are suffering in the same way from this regime, especially because of massive importation of agricultural products from China and elsewhere. Major tea producers on the Caspian Sea are on the verge of bankrupcy, just as the spinning industry etc. Relevant informations were published on Peyke Iran, probably representing only a portion of the real economic disaster. The same goes for AN's propaganda tours to the provinces, where many of the boasted "development plans" never got started.

[Jim]

Ange paris
The early reports about the today's pro regimes organised demonstration points a total failure. In spite of bringing pepole from other citis as the numbers were low instead of Azadi sq they took them to Enghelab sq which is a lot smaller even then their numbers were realy insignificant comparing with the Ashura's gathering of people inspite of all the threats.
This is another defeat for the regim.
So don't loose hope Ange

[AZ]

I'm quite certain the Martians are involved as well. It's absolutely ludicrous to think that the people would oppose a dictatorial theocracy.

[Gloumdalclitch]

Translation of 3 very intersting articles from Liberation

"In Iran, the regime bets on escalating the conflict"
http://txtb.in/8ga

"Violent days ahead"
http://txtb.in/8gb

Interview of Babak Dad "This supposedly Islamic government is totally decadent" http://txtb.in/8gg

[AM]

Let me guess, this must be another MKO member in disguise?

http://onlymehdi.saharkhiz.net/archives/195859575

[ange paris]

Thank you for your support, sometimes I don't see the end of this dark tunnel! anyhow, we know that Green movement is multiparty and we have MKO, Royalists, Moussavi Karroubi and others of opposition's partisans , the kurdes and other tribes, Bahais, sunnits and etc... Regime seek always to find a scapegoat; now, it's not only UK, USA, Zionists...but what's more there is also MKO and Royalists ! so what !! in any case if they have decided to kill , they will and the ennemy has an other name !! we are dealt with by killers ! sometimes I think we need a Reza Khan, in the army to make a coup ! and to save our innocent people

[whereismyvote]

It is worth a mention that the Chinese government has said that the clock for democratic movement in Iran is moving faster than the clock for the nuclear power.

It shows that China too is moving away from the regime's position

[ange paris]

China exaggerate by talking about "DEMOCRACY" !!

[Samuel]

"It is worth a mention that the Chinese government has said that the clock for democratic movement in Iran is moving faster than the clock for the nuclear power.

It shows that China too is moving away from the regime’s position"

Yes the same Chinese who just finished punching the British in the face. They sure listened to the Brits when it came to the drug trafficker.

[Arshama]

Just have a look at today's "Sundis and Titop" (fruit juice and cake) demonstrations:
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1306919561353&ref=nf
http://balatarin.com/permlink/2009/12/17/1878630

Ange Paris, thanks for your links to Libération articles. piroozi ba ma ast. ma bishomarim!

[Samuel]

Maybe Karroubi can convince the MKO to pretend that they also just want to follow the correct path of Khomeini. Would that not be wonderful?

Seriously, the MKO is a tough, serious organization. There are very brave, they do not whine and they are very disciplined. They are enemies but they should be respected. They also do not pretend to be something they are not which is far too much to ask of the greens. If there was an MKO govt in place you can be sure that folks like Mousavi and Karroubi would have been hanging from posts long ago.

[Ali]

Sorry to break it to those of you who are nearly brainwashed into thinking that whatever comes out of Iran is a lie, but there were *millions* of people protesting on behalf of the government of Iran today.

http://english.iribnews.ir/incamera.aspx?camid=319

Look, the trees have leaves! LISTEN to what the people are saying. It can only be from after this Sunday!

[ange paris]

Arshama
Fruit juice and cake party is unbelievable ! :-)
The" Liberation's" article is from Gloumdalclitch ! ( Gloum your name is very difficult, what does it mean and which language ? !)

[ange paris]

Ali
People sing "Hossein Hossein" and a mollah speaks in arabic ! Do you hear an other voice ! ?