The Latest from Iran (30 December): Rallies and Rumours
Wednesday, December 30, 2009 at 18:44 
2205 GMT: The Iranian regime, as it blames foreign media for fomenting unrest, continues the attempt to block the services. Voice of America and BBC Persian report sustained jamming efforts.2055 GMT: The Hidden Story? An Iranian activist makes the interesting and important claim that the rumours around Mousavi and Karroubi have obscured a major story tonight --- "500 thugs attacked students with knives and machetes" at Mashhad University. We've got footage of the clash in our video section.
2050 GMT: Nothing has happened to change our opinion of 1915 GMT. We are treating Iranian state media's story of "two opposition figures" fleeing to northern Iran as rumour or disinformation.
2020 GMT: Reuters is carrying the opposition's denial of IRNA's story:
Hossein Karoubi, the son of moderate defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karoubi, said his father and opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi were still in Tehran.
"My father and Mr. Mousavi are in Tehran and IRNA's report is baseless. They are still pursuing the people's demands," Hossein Karoubi told moderate Parlemannews.
2005 GMT: Andrew Sullivan has gotten wind of what appears to be a five minute video of a group of security forces disarming after being surrounded by a crowd of demonstrators. We've added it to today's video page.
1915 GMT: Rumours. We're off on a 90-minute break. At this point, we consider the Islamic Republic News Agency story of the Karroubi/Mousavi flight to northern Iran "unconfirmed", with the possibility that it is either a rumour being elevated to "news" or a regime disinformation campaign.
Both the Karroubi and Mousavi camps have denied the story. It should also be noted that the rumour was being spread earlier today that Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard had been detained, and no confirmation has followed.
BBC Persian is interviewing one of Karroubi's sons about 1930 GMT.
1910 GMT: We've posted footage of demonstrations today at Shahryar Qods Azad and Mashhad Universities.
1905 GMT: The Regime Rally (cont.). Peyke Iran, which has published photos indicating a smaller rally than the "hundreds of thousands" cited by other outlets (see 1853 GMT), is now off-line. (1926 GMT: Website is back up.)
1853 GMT: The Regime Rally. CNN's Shirzad Bozorgmehr claims "hundreds of thousands" at today's gathering. He said that at Vali-e Asr Square, he could not get further because of the dense crowd. From a bridge, he watched an area from Imam Hossein Square to Enghelab Square, a distance of about 18 kilometres (11 miles).
NEW Latest Iran Video: University Protests (30 December)
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NEW Latest Iran Video: The Strength of the Regime? (29 December)
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The Latest on Iran (29 December): A Desperate Swing of the Fist
1850 GMT: Mousavi Denial? It looks like Mousavi camp is also denying the IRNA story of "flight" to northern Iran, informing American ABC News that Mousavi is still in Tehran.
1840 GMT: Karroubi Denial of "Fleeing". Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has denounced reports that his father and Mir Hossein Mousavi "rumours" spread by Iranian state media. Hossein Karroubi says his father is still in Tehran "working for the people".
1820 GMT: Meanwhile, Some Rhetoric. Speaking to the Islamic Association of Students in Europe, the Supreme Leader said the Western condemnation of the recent events in Iran had been prompted by the influence of "Zionist media".
1815 GMT: IRNA on Mousavi and Karroubi? The Islamic Republic News Agency's account says two "riot leaders fled from Tehran" to Mazandaran amidst "demands for their punishment".
1810 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi in "Protective Custody"? Returned from a break to find Rah-e-Sabz is checking an Islamic Republic News Agency that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have been taken to a small town, Kalar Abad, in Mazandaran in northern Iran "for their protection" under the watch of Ministry of Intelligence and Revolutionary Guard forces. Rah-e-Sabz cautions that this might be a falsehood.
We are urgently checking the news.
1410 GMT: The office of reformist member of Parliament Nasrullah Torabi has been set on fire.
1403 GMT: The "Millions" and Ahmadinejad. Press TV is pushing the line that "millions" turned out today to demonstrate for the regime and against the Ashura "rioters", showing claimed footage from Shiraz, Tabriz, Gilan, Arak, and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as Tehran. Press TV is backing this up with coverage of the Maryam Rajavi statement (see 1000 GMT) as proof of MKO "terrorist" involvement.
The station also briefly features President Ahmadinejad's statement, issued after a Cabinet meeting, that "efforts to destabilise Iran would not affect the nation". and that the US and Western leaders should learn from their past mistakes.
1335 GMT: Rahnavard Arrested? Meanwhile, we're watching closely the rumour, which began circulating about an hour ago, that the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, has been detained.
1308 GMT: That's pretty much it, as Press TV goes back to the studio for the anchorwoman and "analyst" (journalist Nader Mokhtari) to repeat the standard line of "masses" of "religious" Iranian people standing against a foreign-stimulated opposition.
However, mark this exchange: Mokhtari and the anchorwoman are at great pains to say "this isn't a pro-Ahmadinejad rally....this has absolutely nothing to do with the President of Iran". is not over the issue of legitimacy of President Ahmadinejad but "an outpouring of grief" and "the support of the establishment". Could this be a distancing of the defence of the regime from a defence of the President?
1258 GMT: Now the emphasis is on the "greatness" and "magnanimity" of the regime based on "religious jurisprudence", with the Iranian people as a model for all Muslims. However, "we should not remain passive" any longer and "we should take the initiative" against those plotting conspiracies.
1255 GMT: And Now the Warning. Ayatollah Alamalhoda says that a deadline should be set for repentance. If protesters do not repent, they should be treated as "mohareb" (enemies of God), with the attendant punishment.
1250 GMT: Heavy criticism of those responsible for "fighting" on Ashura: "the Leader of the Islamic Revolution invited the rioters to return to the right path".
1243 GMT: Speeches have begun with tagline, "We have to accept rule of current religious jurisprudence." Quickly, the theme is that the United States is pushing the "party of Satan" protesting against the Iranian regime.
The speaker is Ayatollah Alamalhoda, the Friday Prayer leader of Mashhad.
1236 GMT: A wider shot around the Press TV correspondent ("Iranian nation" against the "disrespect" of Ashura, 16 Azar, etc.) establishes that there are thousands in Enghelab Square.
1230 GMT: Etc., etc. Nothing new to report from the rally. You can just put our comments from 1147 to 1208 GMT, like the Press TV coverage, on a loop and replay....
....Adding this: "a red line has been crossed", according to the anchorwomen, with the opposition's demonstrations and disrespect on Ashura.
1208 GMT: Press TV's correspondent finally shows up on camera in a fairly tight shot, surrounded by a few dozen protesters. That doesn't stop her from claiming "millions" have turned out. Ominously, she emphasises the line that demonstrators are demanding the "punishment" of opposition leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
1206 GMT: Ahh, Those Two Locations. It is now clear --- for those who have recorded this historic moment, follow a large black flag being fluttered --- that Press TV is claiming "two locations" for two shots from different angles of the rally in Enghelab Square.
1205 GMT: Press TV keeps trying to go to a correspondent, but she is still failing to show up "because the crowd is so loud" that she cannot find a location for the interview with studio.
1157 GMT: A Glitch in the Line? The Press TV anchorman rambles on and says, against a split-screen purportedly showing the rallies, that shots are of protests in "two different locations" in Tehran. However, he never names those locations.
Otherwise, this is the narrative: "MKO-Foreign Governments inciting violence, particuarly Foreign Minister David Miliband of the UK-Also President Obama-MKO-Foreign Interference".
1147 GMT: Press TV has now cut into programming to show live shots from Tehran. Initial close-range shots of the crowd give way to a long shot which (sorry to be uncertain) may or may not be of today. The anchorman's description is boiler-plate claim of continuing pro-regime demonstrations, with emphasis on rallies on Tuesday as well, against the "vandalism" of the opposition and "its violation of one of the most sacred events on the Muslim calendar".
An addition to the party line, however, is the focus on "MKO terrorists" declaring their role in the Ashura "riots" (see 1000 GMT).
1145 GMT: The Ritual Warning. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has repeated the party line, including the hint of the death penalty, with the declaration, "There is no more room for tolerance over participants in illegal rallies....Those who participate in illegal rallies will be confronted more harshly and the judiciary will confront them more decisively."
Ahmadi-Moghaddam added, "Some of the protesters on Sunday are considered as mohareb (enemy of God) and will be confronted firmly." Capital punishment can be imposed on "mohareb".
1140 GMT: We're watching for first references to the pro-regime protest called for 3 p.m. local time (1130 GMT) in Tehran. So far Press TV English has not cut into its programming to provide an update.
1040 GMT: Death Penalty for Protest? German media are highlighting a statement by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, that the legal structure will be put in place within 24 hours for capital punishment against leaders of demonstrations.
1025 GMT: "The Velvet Revolution" Moves From CNN to IRNA. The Islamic Republic News Agency is also highlighting an interview with US-based academic Kaveh Afrasiabi on CNN as confirmation of foreign intervention against the regime. Afrasiabi told CNN, "We have seen tremendous evidence of meddling, by the UK Government in particular, during and after the Presidential election, and there is no doubt in my mind...that the British Government is determined to see regime change in Iran.
1020 GMT: The Regime Stays Negative. As we ventured in our analysis this morning, the Iranian Government appears to have put aside any attempt at a "positive" campaign to mobilise support in favour of bashing the opposition. The Islamic Republic News Agency is dominated by stories vowing punishment of protesters: Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has taken prime position for the moment with his declaration that the Iran's judiciary will "deal decisively" with the "anti-revolutionary" movement.
Moslehi also maintained the line that "foreign elements" were responsible for "assassinations" on Ashura.
1000 GMT: The Regime's Unexpected Helper? Press TV has jumped on an interview by Maryam Rajavi, the head of the National Council of Resistance in Iran, to headline, "The Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) has acknowledged that it played a role in Sunday's violent anti-government protests in Iran."
The NCRI is the political wing of MKO, which has carried out a violent campaign since 1979 to overthrow the Iranian Government. According to Press TV, Rajavi told Agence France Press that her organisation's followers "cooperated with the demonstrators and coordinated the protests". She supposedly said, "[The protests are] a call for solidarity among all those who reject the rule of the Supreme Leader, the velayat e-faqih....What we call the 'Green movement' against the electoral fraud quickly disappeared to be replaced by a deeper movement whose goal is the total overthrow of the regime."
0915 GMT: How Big Were the Pro-Government Protests? An interesting discussion amongst EA readers overnight of footage from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, supposedly showing thousands of people chanting against "rioters" and for the regime. Authenticity is far from certain --- note the debate in comments below over the trees blurred in the video --- and I am still looking for confirmation in the Iranian press.
Meanwhile, pictures of a rally by Iranian members of Parliament on Tuesday show few demonstrators beyond the MPs.
0845 GMT: We've now posted video claiming to be of the attack on Ayatollah Dastgheib's offices (see 0830 GMT) in Shiraz.
0835 GMT: Uncertainty and Rumour. Testifying to our theme today, a prominent Iranian activist, Mehdi Saharkhiz, has posted an account of a supposed meeting between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, discussing the situation after Ashura.
0830 GMT: The Regime v. The Clerics. Radio Farda has more on the story, which we noted yesterday, of attacks on the offices of Ayatollah Sane'i and Ayatollah Dastghaib in Mashhad and Shiraz.
0815 GMT: In our special analysis this morning, we began from Iran's settling into "tensions of uncertainty" after the Ashura demonstrations and the regime's fightback with widespread arrests.
The uncertainty is evident this morning in news that the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Seyed Ali Mousavi, is buried in Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, reportedly after only the Government gave only a few hours' notice that the body should now be laid to rest. No prizes for guessing why, as the regime tries to limit any post-Ashura rallies --- Seyed Ali Mousavi was killed in Sunday's demonstrations.
Or, to be precise, post-Ashura rallies of the opposition. The regime's other gambit today is the call for a mass pro-Government demonstration in Tehran. The uncertainty, even with reports that "thousands" gathered on Monday and Tuesday to condemn the "rioters" of Ashura, is whether this demonstration will be a substantive indication of widespread support, especially for President Ahmadinejad.
And then there are the uncertainties that go beyond today's events. Consider, for example, how a rumour without any clear evidence is now "news". The Twitter chatter on Sunday was that a jet, with an escort of military fighters, was ready at Mehrabad Airport for the Supreme Leader to fly to Russia. Yesterday, that chatter, backed up by a mysterious fax, turned into "news" on Radio Netherlands, and today it is worthy of publication in The Huffington Post.
Agence France Presse, Ayatollah Alamalhoda, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib, Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, BBC Persian, CNN, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Heydar Moslehi, Hossein Karroubi, Huffington Post, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Republic News Agency, Maryam Rajavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mehdi Saharkhiz, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Nader Mokhtari, Nasrullah Torabi, National Council of Resistance of Iran, Press TV, Pyeke Iran, Radio Netherlands, Rah-e-Sabz, Seyed Ali Mousavi, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, Voice of America, Zahra Rahnavard in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (241)
Ange, yes they are numerous, even without Photoshop antics. But they're hardly spontaneous expressions of popular will. Imagine if opposition supporters were allowed to gather without threat of violence. I doubt they'd have to bus in rural Iranians from across the country.
I had a relative who told me that her housekeeper, who was from the poorer parts of southern Tehran, would attend state organized rallies depending on the type of food that was offered. Anything that involved meat was a clincher given how expensive it is.
"And it was a great way of meeting girls." This is getting better by the second, lunch and now girls.
Some of the pro-greenies have to step back and realize how pathetic they sound. They cannot even for a second acknowledge that the govt. has substantial support. Every one in favor of the govt has to be paid off, coerced or apparently just fed a meal with cake. A serious movement acknowledges the strength of its opponents; folks here would rather talk about lunch and girls.
Note in contrast how I acknowledge what is undeniable about the MKO. They are terrorists who must be crushed but they are clearly true believers. I also do not deny that the MKO played a part in overthrowing the Shah.
Samuel - the Tibetan monk who advocates shooting protesters in the groin as a method of crowd control. The Bodhisattva of Khomeinism.
Mousavi and Karroubi Have been arressted. Just heard this on the radio.
Samuel,
You're not an Iranian. You don't live in Iran. And your comments reveal a deep ignorance of and indifference to the facts of Iranian society. I doubt you even know any Iranians. I speak from first-hand, personal experience of Iran. I'm sorry if you find the truth inconvenient.
Every time your ramblings are shot down, you get more shrill and strident. Fun to see.
It is funny how everyone still engages with the likes of Ali/Samuel about the smallest things simply unimportant. Just look at the facts;
Universities belong to the opposition
Big Cities the same
The Rich and the educated as well
They were left with the religious faction and even that they seem to have lost which will only lead to losses in the rural area's
Just look at the list of the ayatollah's and Marjas AGAINST the goverment.
When a ISLAMIC republic even has The ISLAM against it what is it really left with !!???
@ Samuel
I see. That's interesting. You support the regime, but you "live in a cage in Tibet". :)
Am seeing reliable reports that Karroubi and Mousavi have been taken away to a location and put under house arrest. Any announcement that it was for their safety is a total lie, only ones killing are Khamenei's basij. Will wait for confirmation on Mousavi's facebook page but anybody in Iran start preparing for revolution tomorrow.
Just to note: Twitter speculation is wondering if Rah-e-Sabz has been hacked/hijacked/whatever and that info might not be reliable on it right now.
Afshin jan,
I think it's important to respond to Samuel and his ilk. There are many lurkers on this site that may be taken in by their nonsense. For a while I thought Samuel might be open to reason and dialogue, but he repeatedly lapses into childishness.
Lots of reports coming in about Basijis and Hezbollahis attacking students in Mashad. Two students reportedly had their throats slit. These are the sort of people Samuel wants to pray with.
@ 1815 GMT
Al Arabiya reports Moussavi and Karroubi have been placed under a sort of internal exile, "for their own protection." The report is sourced to Iranian state media, which says both men are being held in Mazandaran province in northern Iran.
http://www.themajlis.org/2009/12/30/report-mousavi-karroubi-forced-to-leave-tehran
This seems to be a brilliant move on the part of the gov: ambiguity!
Are they arrested? Internal exile? Protective custody? Does internal exile merit revolt? Take to the streets, or not?
This ambiguity muddles clear and decisive action on the part of opposition supporters.
From Lara Setrakian: http://twitter.com/LaraABCNews/status/7202974055" rel="nofollow">Rahnavard NOT under arrest.
Same likely applies to Mousavi/Karroubi.
Unity4iran website is denying the report that Karobi and Mousavi are moved to the Manazdaran state.
http://www.unity4iran.com/
Karroubi's son says all rumor.
http://www.parlemannews.ir/?n=6747" rel="nofollow">Parleman
Florence
I think that it's not " footage de gueule".
Amicales salutations
No confirmation that Mousavi/Karroubi are under house arrest. It might just be an IRNA hoax but be alert and look for news on this. I'm still not 100% convinced that its not true but needs more reliable confirmation.
Transcript of today's Sazegara & Makhmalbaf statement, asking for demonstrations on Thursday, 10 Dey (tomorrow), if the bodies of killed protesters are not released. Also announcing nationwide protests in case of Moussavi's and Karroubi's arrest:
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/1dgt4
An arrest of Karoubi, Moussavi is likely to do more good for the Second Iranian Revolution than bad. They have been left behind by the Revolution - and are not leading it anywhere. Their arrest however would give further impetus to the Revolutionary cause. Either way - the Revolution wins and the current Regime loses.
Barry
@Bozorg
Yes I agree that one needs to respond to them, just a note of caution is that we not be seduced to let them make the agenda and discuss un-important details.
They tend to want to take the attention of the important issues and focus on useless events/ data
Afshin,
I agree. Diversion is their main tactic. I'll be more selective in my responses.
Looks like Press TV has backed away from claiming MILLIONS or even hundreds of thousands. In the Body section of this link it describes the crowds as being in the tens of thousands, which sounds about right.
Press TV archive - http://217.218.64.54/archive/detail.aspx?id=52238
Read this from presstv...http://presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=114977§ionid=351020101 after a refresh 2 minutes ago. This claims millions versus the link from Bozorg. Interesting how there is contradiction from one source.....
sorry. re-copying link above so it can be accessed.
http://presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=114977§ionid=351020101
Peyke Iran went offline about half an hour ago, will come up again certainly, just as in the past days. Its excellent analysis of today's Enghelab square pictures was obviously too much for the regime...
Roger Cohen asks to change Iran at the top. "It is time for a Persian Sistani." http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/31/opinion/31iht-edcohen.html?_r=2
Thanks to all for following the stories re rallies and now Karroubi/Mousavi rumours so closely. It would not be possible to get a grasp on these quickly without your reporting.
S.