The Latest from Iran (30 December): Rallies and Rumours
Wednesday, December 30, 2009 at 18:44 
2205 GMT: The Iranian regime, as it blames foreign media for fomenting unrest, continues the attempt to block the services. Voice of America and BBC Persian report sustained jamming efforts.2055 GMT: The Hidden Story? An Iranian activist makes the interesting and important claim that the rumours around Mousavi and Karroubi have obscured a major story tonight --- "500 thugs attacked students with knives and machetes" at Mashhad University. We've got footage of the clash in our video section.
2050 GMT: Nothing has happened to change our opinion of 1915 GMT. We are treating Iranian state media's story of "two opposition figures" fleeing to northern Iran as rumour or disinformation.
2020 GMT: Reuters is carrying the opposition's denial of IRNA's story:
Hossein Karoubi, the son of moderate defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karoubi, said his father and opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi were still in Tehran.
"My father and Mr. Mousavi are in Tehran and IRNA's report is baseless. They are still pursuing the people's demands," Hossein Karoubi told moderate Parlemannews.
2005 GMT: Andrew Sullivan has gotten wind of what appears to be a five minute video of a group of security forces disarming after being surrounded by a crowd of demonstrators. We've added it to today's video page.
1915 GMT: Rumours. We're off on a 90-minute break. At this point, we consider the Islamic Republic News Agency story of the Karroubi/Mousavi flight to northern Iran "unconfirmed", with the possibility that it is either a rumour being elevated to "news" or a regime disinformation campaign.
Both the Karroubi and Mousavi camps have denied the story. It should also be noted that the rumour was being spread earlier today that Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard had been detained, and no confirmation has followed.
BBC Persian is interviewing one of Karroubi's sons about 1930 GMT.
1910 GMT: We've posted footage of demonstrations today at Shahryar Qods Azad and Mashhad Universities.
1905 GMT: The Regime Rally (cont.). Peyke Iran, which has published photos indicating a smaller rally than the "hundreds of thousands" cited by other outlets (see 1853 GMT), is now off-line. (1926 GMT: Website is back up.)
1853 GMT: The Regime Rally. CNN's Shirzad Bozorgmehr claims "hundreds of thousands" at today's gathering. He said that at Vali-e Asr Square, he could not get further because of the dense crowd. From a bridge, he watched an area from Imam Hossein Square to Enghelab Square, a distance of about 18 kilometres (11 miles).
NEW Latest Iran Video: University Protests (30 December)
NEW Iran: The Uncertainties of Oppression and Protest
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Strength of the Regime? (29 December)
Latest Iran Video: Today’s University Protest (29 December)
Iran: A List of the Ashura Detainees
Iran: The Regime’s Fightback?
The Latest on Iran (29 December): A Desperate Swing of the Fist
1850 GMT: Mousavi Denial? It looks like Mousavi camp is also denying the IRNA story of "flight" to northern Iran, informing American ABC News that Mousavi is still in Tehran.
1840 GMT: Karroubi Denial of "Fleeing". Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has denounced reports that his father and Mir Hossein Mousavi "rumours" spread by Iranian state media. Hossein Karroubi says his father is still in Tehran "working for the people".
1820 GMT: Meanwhile, Some Rhetoric. Speaking to the Islamic Association of Students in Europe, the Supreme Leader said the Western condemnation of the recent events in Iran had been prompted by the influence of "Zionist media".
1815 GMT: IRNA on Mousavi and Karroubi? The Islamic Republic News Agency's account says two "riot leaders fled from Tehran" to Mazandaran amidst "demands for their punishment".
1810 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi in "Protective Custody"? Returned from a break to find Rah-e-Sabz is checking an Islamic Republic News Agency that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have been taken to a small town, Kalar Abad, in Mazandaran in northern Iran "for their protection" under the watch of Ministry of Intelligence and Revolutionary Guard forces. Rah-e-Sabz cautions that this might be a falsehood.
We are urgently checking the news.
1410 GMT: The office of reformist member of Parliament Nasrullah Torabi has been set on fire.
1403 GMT: The "Millions" and Ahmadinejad. Press TV is pushing the line that "millions" turned out today to demonstrate for the regime and against the Ashura "rioters", showing claimed footage from Shiraz, Tabriz, Gilan, Arak, and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as Tehran. Press TV is backing this up with coverage of the Maryam Rajavi statement (see 1000 GMT) as proof of MKO "terrorist" involvement.
The station also briefly features President Ahmadinejad's statement, issued after a Cabinet meeting, that "efforts to destabilise Iran would not affect the nation". and that the US and Western leaders should learn from their past mistakes.
1335 GMT: Rahnavard Arrested? Meanwhile, we're watching closely the rumour, which began circulating about an hour ago, that the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, has been detained.
1308 GMT: That's pretty much it, as Press TV goes back to the studio for the anchorwoman and "analyst" (journalist Nader Mokhtari) to repeat the standard line of "masses" of "religious" Iranian people standing against a foreign-stimulated opposition.
However, mark this exchange: Mokhtari and the anchorwoman are at great pains to say "this isn't a pro-Ahmadinejad rally....this has absolutely nothing to do with the President of Iran". is not over the issue of legitimacy of President Ahmadinejad but "an outpouring of grief" and "the support of the establishment". Could this be a distancing of the defence of the regime from a defence of the President?
1258 GMT: Now the emphasis is on the "greatness" and "magnanimity" of the regime based on "religious jurisprudence", with the Iranian people as a model for all Muslims. However, "we should not remain passive" any longer and "we should take the initiative" against those plotting conspiracies.
1255 GMT: And Now the Warning. Ayatollah Alamalhoda says that a deadline should be set for repentance. If protesters do not repent, they should be treated as "mohareb" (enemies of God), with the attendant punishment.
1250 GMT: Heavy criticism of those responsible for "fighting" on Ashura: "the Leader of the Islamic Revolution invited the rioters to return to the right path".
1243 GMT: Speeches have begun with tagline, "We have to accept rule of current religious jurisprudence." Quickly, the theme is that the United States is pushing the "party of Satan" protesting against the Iranian regime.
The speaker is Ayatollah Alamalhoda, the Friday Prayer leader of Mashhad.
1236 GMT: A wider shot around the Press TV correspondent ("Iranian nation" against the "disrespect" of Ashura, 16 Azar, etc.) establishes that there are thousands in Enghelab Square.
1230 GMT: Etc., etc. Nothing new to report from the rally. You can just put our comments from 1147 to 1208 GMT, like the Press TV coverage, on a loop and replay....
....Adding this: "a red line has been crossed", according to the anchorwomen, with the opposition's demonstrations and disrespect on Ashura.
1208 GMT: Press TV's correspondent finally shows up on camera in a fairly tight shot, surrounded by a few dozen protesters. That doesn't stop her from claiming "millions" have turned out. Ominously, she emphasises the line that demonstrators are demanding the "punishment" of opposition leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
1206 GMT: Ahh, Those Two Locations. It is now clear --- for those who have recorded this historic moment, follow a large black flag being fluttered --- that Press TV is claiming "two locations" for two shots from different angles of the rally in Enghelab Square.
1205 GMT: Press TV keeps trying to go to a correspondent, but she is still failing to show up "because the crowd is so loud" that she cannot find a location for the interview with studio.
1157 GMT: A Glitch in the Line? The Press TV anchorman rambles on and says, against a split-screen purportedly showing the rallies, that shots are of protests in "two different locations" in Tehran. However, he never names those locations.
Otherwise, this is the narrative: "MKO-Foreign Governments inciting violence, particuarly Foreign Minister David Miliband of the UK-Also President Obama-MKO-Foreign Interference".
1147 GMT: Press TV has now cut into programming to show live shots from Tehran. Initial close-range shots of the crowd give way to a long shot which (sorry to be uncertain) may or may not be of today. The anchorman's description is boiler-plate claim of continuing pro-regime demonstrations, with emphasis on rallies on Tuesday as well, against the "vandalism" of the opposition and "its violation of one of the most sacred events on the Muslim calendar".
An addition to the party line, however, is the focus on "MKO terrorists" declaring their role in the Ashura "riots" (see 1000 GMT).
1145 GMT: The Ritual Warning. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has repeated the party line, including the hint of the death penalty, with the declaration, "There is no more room for tolerance over participants in illegal rallies....Those who participate in illegal rallies will be confronted more harshly and the judiciary will confront them more decisively."
Ahmadi-Moghaddam added, "Some of the protesters on Sunday are considered as mohareb (enemy of God) and will be confronted firmly." Capital punishment can be imposed on "mohareb".
1140 GMT: We're watching for first references to the pro-regime protest called for 3 p.m. local time (1130 GMT) in Tehran. So far Press TV English has not cut into its programming to provide an update.
1040 GMT: Death Penalty for Protest? German media are highlighting a statement by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, that the legal structure will be put in place within 24 hours for capital punishment against leaders of demonstrations.
1025 GMT: "The Velvet Revolution" Moves From CNN to IRNA. The Islamic Republic News Agency is also highlighting an interview with US-based academic Kaveh Afrasiabi on CNN as confirmation of foreign intervention against the regime. Afrasiabi told CNN, "We have seen tremendous evidence of meddling, by the UK Government in particular, during and after the Presidential election, and there is no doubt in my mind...that the British Government is determined to see regime change in Iran.
1020 GMT: The Regime Stays Negative. As we ventured in our analysis this morning, the Iranian Government appears to have put aside any attempt at a "positive" campaign to mobilise support in favour of bashing the opposition. The Islamic Republic News Agency is dominated by stories vowing punishment of protesters: Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has taken prime position for the moment with his declaration that the Iran's judiciary will "deal decisively" with the "anti-revolutionary" movement.
Moslehi also maintained the line that "foreign elements" were responsible for "assassinations" on Ashura.
1000 GMT: The Regime's Unexpected Helper? Press TV has jumped on an interview by Maryam Rajavi, the head of the National Council of Resistance in Iran, to headline, "The Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) has acknowledged that it played a role in Sunday's violent anti-government protests in Iran."
The NCRI is the political wing of MKO, which has carried out a violent campaign since 1979 to overthrow the Iranian Government. According to Press TV, Rajavi told Agence France Press that her organisation's followers "cooperated with the demonstrators and coordinated the protests". She supposedly said, "[The protests are] a call for solidarity among all those who reject the rule of the Supreme Leader, the velayat e-faqih....What we call the 'Green movement' against the electoral fraud quickly disappeared to be replaced by a deeper movement whose goal is the total overthrow of the regime."
0915 GMT: How Big Were the Pro-Government Protests? An interesting discussion amongst EA readers overnight of footage from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, supposedly showing thousands of people chanting against "rioters" and for the regime. Authenticity is far from certain --- note the debate in comments below over the trees blurred in the video --- and I am still looking for confirmation in the Iranian press.
Meanwhile, pictures of a rally by Iranian members of Parliament on Tuesday show few demonstrators beyond the MPs.
0845 GMT: We've now posted video claiming to be of the attack on Ayatollah Dastgheib's offices (see 0830 GMT) in Shiraz.
0835 GMT: Uncertainty and Rumour. Testifying to our theme today, a prominent Iranian activist, Mehdi Saharkhiz, has posted an account of a supposed meeting between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, discussing the situation after Ashura.
0830 GMT: The Regime v. The Clerics. Radio Farda has more on the story, which we noted yesterday, of attacks on the offices of Ayatollah Sane'i and Ayatollah Dastghaib in Mashhad and Shiraz.
0815 GMT: In our special analysis this morning, we began from Iran's settling into "tensions of uncertainty" after the Ashura demonstrations and the regime's fightback with widespread arrests.
The uncertainty is evident this morning in news that the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Seyed Ali Mousavi, is buried in Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, reportedly after only the Government gave only a few hours' notice that the body should now be laid to rest. No prizes for guessing why, as the regime tries to limit any post-Ashura rallies --- Seyed Ali Mousavi was killed in Sunday's demonstrations.
Or, to be precise, post-Ashura rallies of the opposition. The regime's other gambit today is the call for a mass pro-Government demonstration in Tehran. The uncertainty, even with reports that "thousands" gathered on Monday and Tuesday to condemn the "rioters" of Ashura, is whether this demonstration will be a substantive indication of widespread support, especially for President Ahmadinejad.
And then there are the uncertainties that go beyond today's events. Consider, for example, how a rumour without any clear evidence is now "news". The Twitter chatter on Sunday was that a jet, with an escort of military fighters, was ready at Mehrabad Airport for the Supreme Leader to fly to Russia. Yesterday, that chatter, backed up by a mysterious fax, turned into "news" on Radio Netherlands, and today it is worthy of publication in The Huffington Post.
Agence France Presse, Ayatollah Alamalhoda, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib, Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, BBC Persian, CNN, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Heydar Moslehi, Hossein Karroubi, Huffington Post, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Republic News Agency, Maryam Rajavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mehdi Saharkhiz, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Nader Mokhtari, Nasrullah Torabi, National Council of Resistance of Iran, Press TV, Pyeke Iran, Radio Netherlands, Rah-e-Sabz, Seyed Ali Mousavi, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, Voice of America, Zahra Rahnavard in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (241)
"if not over a million people". That is the full quote from CNN. THAT'S A LOT OF LUNCHES AND CAKE.
"No government opponents were seen at Wednesday's rally in Tehran, said CNN's Shirzad Bozorgmehr from the capital. Opposition Web sites advised their supporters to avoid the demonstrations.
Bozorgmehr, who watched the demonstrations from the sidelines, said that at Vali Asr square, the crowd was so dense he could not make his way through on foot. From a bridge, he overlooked an area from Imam Hossein Square to Revolution (Enghelab) Square, a distance of about 18 kilometers (11 miles).
There were "easily hundreds of thousands, if not over a million people," he said."
"Police find clue about Mousavi's nephew killing".
http://presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=114957§ionid=351020101
Can anyone be surprised at this....unfortunately I think not.
I have it on very reliable sources that the entire demonstrations in Tehran were around one square and at best estimates around 20 to 30K. Those who report otherwise have their heads in the sand and are wishful thinkers. The regime is collapsing. No where in the other cities were there any pro government demonstrations of any size. I must state in strong terms that those who are calling for millions of people on the streets of Tehran today are trying to fool themselves that their positions in the government and business is secured, but as things change they will have to leave with their masters. Iran is for Iranians who believe in the truth and who are fed up with lies. Freedom and justice will prevail.
Local reporters an d now Press TV are saying numbers are in the tens of thousands not millions: I quote from Afshin:
Looks like Press TV has backed away from claiming MILLIONS or even hundreds of thousands. In the Body section of this link it describes the crowds as being in the tens of thousands, which sounds about right.
Press TV archive - http://217.218.64.54/archive/detail.aspx?id=52238
I agree with Bozorg. There are also people with evil intentions. Iran for Iranians. No more Hezbollah nor Hamas. We are sick and tired of your rants. We are sick of your lies. The national wealth of Iran must not be squandered by people who have no respect for human rights. You are totally blind to the horror in Iranian prisons, to the rapes and torture. Iranian people know what to do, what they want and are sick of this evil culture of death and destruction and of throwing people into the seas. No more. The sun will shine once again from under this cloud of obscurantist ways.
I've tried to catch up on all the comments regarding the size of the crowds in Iran and I think even those of us who are staunch supporters of the Green/Reform/Opposition movement need to have a moment of realism. I've looked at many videos released today and to say the crowds have been "small" may not be an accurate statement. Now, of course, there must be a level of skepticism in the reports from pro-government media...I think most of us agree to this. Also there is a history of the government incentivizing people to join government sponsored events. As was pointed out, it is not unreasonable to say millions of people in Iran may support the regime especially given the population of over 70 million in the country. What I think it worth discussing is that despite the numbers of those who took to the streets today to protest against the demonstrations on Ashura, it does not take from the resolve and dedication of those in Iran who took to the streets just days ago risking life and limb to continue to stand for their rights and beliefs.
Hossein
You may not want to believe it but there really were millions out demonstrating on behalf of the government today. It doesn't do anyone any good to try to disprove something for which there is plenty of photographic and video evidence floating around.
I've just been watching Jam-e-Jam and I watched video footage taken from a helicopter and the crowds were absolutely huge. On the streets and side streets there was simply no room for any more people.
Rather than say it's a lie, perhaps it would be better to understand that the government in Iran has many millions of supporters at the very least.
Confronting a fact is better than ignoring a fact.
Bijan,
No one claimed that the numbers are "small."
The numbers - tens of thousands in Tehran by Press TV's account in the link I provided - are unimpressive given the fact that the state uses threats and incentives to gather people under the pretext of a "spontaneous" rally. Yes, there are sincere supporters among them too.
Bijan,
Agree with your last comment but then it seems we have a problem. If every side has at least millions of supporters, how do we pass this split amongst us?
Khob, Peyke Iran is back again. Highly recommended article from Sohrabestan, calling today's regime protests an obvious self-beating (FA)
http://sohrabestann.blogspot.com/2009/12/blog-post_3664.html
And Rahesabz strongly condemns the putschist's lies on Ashura, who are trying to set the stage for more bloodily oppression and widespread arrests. An invitation to all Greens to keep Hosseinian peacefulness and march on proudly (FA): http://www.rahesabz.net/story/6711/
Bozorg,
There are millions there. If you have access to IRINN or jam-e-jam on satellite to see the aerial footage.
Ali,
Where were these MILLIONS of supporters during Basiji day a couple of months ago, and the pro-Khomeini flop a few weeks past?
They suddenly woke up and attended today?
Ali,
I have addressed you in a previous thread, as well as this one, as have other commenters, and you've failed to address the points made by anyone. You simply repeat your assertions. Take care.
Bozorg - I was using "small" as a relative term. I should have been more descriptive in my comments. The numbers in June serve as a benchmark in my mind to all events subsequent to then. I agree with your statement on the "means" used to gather such crowds. It certainlty takes away from the substance of the numbers.
Ali - Again. I am thinking in relative terms. I do not think there is a 50/50 split or anything close to this. 7 million is only 10% of Iran's population..which by my account is a significant minority. I am not claiming this is a number that supports the regime but am simply trying to illustrate the point that while there may (stressing MAY) have been large numbers showing support for the regime today, that that may only represent a small percentage of the total.
Frankly, until journalists are allowed to report from Tehran again we all need to simply assume that whatever numbers the Govt. is getting out is dissapointing to them. If the govt. had substantial support they would be allowing media coverage, as they did before the June 12 coup de etat.
Use of the "BIG LIE"
From MEIN KAMPF - by Adolf Hitler
"All this was inspired by the principle--which is quite true in itself--that in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying."
Barry
Good point Adam. Taking news from the pro-government sources has its risks.
To Bozorg's question above..it seems the demonstrations are more focused on the "violation" of Ashura by the opposition. Does this reconcile why more came to the streets today versus recent pro-goverment rallies?
CNN just covered Iran in Breaking news (finally). They showed the police car smashing the protestor on Sunday, and how the iranian government has decided that they are no longer going to be peacefull now they will really attack without no merci. Great definition of being nice and peacefull for these criminals iranian officials. They are also covering the disappearance of Karoubi and Mousavi.
Bozorgi,
"Where were these MILLIONS of supporters during Basiji day a couple of months ago, and the pro-Khomeini flop a few weeks past?"
You would not believe any numbers that show govt support so why even ask the question? I, however, remain deeply impressed by your profound knowledge of Lunch Meats.
Samuel-Div
"They also do not pretend to be something they are not"
Unlike you.
Ali
Ok !! bravo !! how you are strong and loved by people ! how your leaders are brave, honest and fair ! all of you deserve to be " champion du monde " ! the country is run perfectely ! all the oil's money is in the pocket of people, and every night, all of them pray for the long life of SL; here you can find your medal : close your eyes :
VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV
Video of free food being passed out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EuX4FUjp_k
It's not as efficient (or delicious!) as the government-funded meals served in the mosque, but hey, the whole system is falling apart...
The numbers are really meaningless. An all-powerful & coercive regime would always be able to assemble large gatherings. Hitler, Mao, Stalin did it, and so can Khameneinejad. The undeniable facts are that (1) this regime is bankrupting the country; (2) while Iran goes backward, most other countries zoom past it (even Rwanda is growing faster!); (3) every year over an average of 150,000 educated Iranians emigrate; (4) in spite of the brutality of the security forces, tens and hundreds of thousand of Greens continue demonstrating at great personal risk.
Regardless of the degree of repression, how long can this foolish, incompetent, brutal regime last?
Samuel,
I treat information from state outlets with skepticism, as should any right thinking person.
I believe there were tens of thousands of people today, per Press TV's description. I've provided the link several times. You really need to be a more attentive reader.
I believe Basiji day and the pro-Khomeini demos were a flop b/c state outlets barely reported on them.
Look, yummy sandwiches for the faithful - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EuX4FUjp_k
Look at those hands groping desperately. Their love for the Supreme Leader has really worked up their appetite.
I wonder what kind of food the MKO rewards their Green lackeys with.
North Korea regime are the MASTERS of rallies- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFpRpYtbtSg They make Iranian Regime Rallies look so small in comparison. I cannot understand why there is such a difference. In both countries, according to both Regimes, the people are very happy and strongly support the "Dear/Supreme Leader". In both countries, the people agree with the Regime's fight against "enemies".
So - what is it that the North Koreans have, that the Iranians don't have.? I think perhaps it is the religion that holds the Iranian Regime back. If they discarded that, then perhaps they could hold rallies comparable to those held in North Korea.
Barry