The Latest from Iran (30 December): Rallies and Rumours
Wednesday, December 30, 2009 at 18:44 
2205 GMT: The Iranian regime, as it blames foreign media for fomenting unrest, continues the attempt to block the services. Voice of America and BBC Persian report sustained jamming efforts.2055 GMT: The Hidden Story? An Iranian activist makes the interesting and important claim that the rumours around Mousavi and Karroubi have obscured a major story tonight --- "500 thugs attacked students with knives and machetes" at Mashhad University. We've got footage of the clash in our video section.
2050 GMT: Nothing has happened to change our opinion of 1915 GMT. We are treating Iranian state media's story of "two opposition figures" fleeing to northern Iran as rumour or disinformation.
2020 GMT: Reuters is carrying the opposition's denial of IRNA's story:
Hossein Karoubi, the son of moderate defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karoubi, said his father and opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi were still in Tehran.
"My father and Mr. Mousavi are in Tehran and IRNA's report is baseless. They are still pursuing the people's demands," Hossein Karoubi told moderate Parlemannews.
2005 GMT: Andrew Sullivan has gotten wind of what appears to be a five minute video of a group of security forces disarming after being surrounded by a crowd of demonstrators. We've added it to today's video page.
1915 GMT: Rumours. We're off on a 90-minute break. At this point, we consider the Islamic Republic News Agency story of the Karroubi/Mousavi flight to northern Iran "unconfirmed", with the possibility that it is either a rumour being elevated to "news" or a regime disinformation campaign.
Both the Karroubi and Mousavi camps have denied the story. It should also be noted that the rumour was being spread earlier today that Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard had been detained, and no confirmation has followed.
BBC Persian is interviewing one of Karroubi's sons about 1930 GMT.
1910 GMT: We've posted footage of demonstrations today at Shahryar Qods Azad and Mashhad Universities.
1905 GMT: The Regime Rally (cont.). Peyke Iran, which has published photos indicating a smaller rally than the "hundreds of thousands" cited by other outlets (see 1853 GMT), is now off-line. (1926 GMT: Website is back up.)
1853 GMT: The Regime Rally. CNN's Shirzad Bozorgmehr claims "hundreds of thousands" at today's gathering. He said that at Vali-e Asr Square, he could not get further because of the dense crowd. From a bridge, he watched an area from Imam Hossein Square to Enghelab Square, a distance of about 18 kilometres (11 miles).
NEW Latest Iran Video: University Protests (30 December)
NEW Iran: The Uncertainties of Oppression and Protest
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Strength of the Regime? (29 December)
Latest Iran Video: Today’s University Protest (29 December)
Iran: A List of the Ashura Detainees
Iran: The Regime’s Fightback?
The Latest on Iran (29 December): A Desperate Swing of the Fist
1850 GMT: Mousavi Denial? It looks like Mousavi camp is also denying the IRNA story of "flight" to northern Iran, informing American ABC News that Mousavi is still in Tehran.
1840 GMT: Karroubi Denial of "Fleeing". Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has denounced reports that his father and Mir Hossein Mousavi "rumours" spread by Iranian state media. Hossein Karroubi says his father is still in Tehran "working for the people".
1820 GMT: Meanwhile, Some Rhetoric. Speaking to the Islamic Association of Students in Europe, the Supreme Leader said the Western condemnation of the recent events in Iran had been prompted by the influence of "Zionist media".
1815 GMT: IRNA on Mousavi and Karroubi? The Islamic Republic News Agency's account says two "riot leaders fled from Tehran" to Mazandaran amidst "demands for their punishment".
1810 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi in "Protective Custody"? Returned from a break to find Rah-e-Sabz is checking an Islamic Republic News Agency that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have been taken to a small town, Kalar Abad, in Mazandaran in northern Iran "for their protection" under the watch of Ministry of Intelligence and Revolutionary Guard forces. Rah-e-Sabz cautions that this might be a falsehood.
We are urgently checking the news.
1410 GMT: The office of reformist member of Parliament Nasrullah Torabi has been set on fire.
1403 GMT: The "Millions" and Ahmadinejad. Press TV is pushing the line that "millions" turned out today to demonstrate for the regime and against the Ashura "rioters", showing claimed footage from Shiraz, Tabriz, Gilan, Arak, and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as Tehran. Press TV is backing this up with coverage of the Maryam Rajavi statement (see 1000 GMT) as proof of MKO "terrorist" involvement.
The station also briefly features President Ahmadinejad's statement, issued after a Cabinet meeting, that "efforts to destabilise Iran would not affect the nation". and that the US and Western leaders should learn from their past mistakes.
1335 GMT: Rahnavard Arrested? Meanwhile, we're watching closely the rumour, which began circulating about an hour ago, that the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, has been detained.
1308 GMT: That's pretty much it, as Press TV goes back to the studio for the anchorwoman and "analyst" (journalist Nader Mokhtari) to repeat the standard line of "masses" of "religious" Iranian people standing against a foreign-stimulated opposition.
However, mark this exchange: Mokhtari and the anchorwoman are at great pains to say "this isn't a pro-Ahmadinejad rally....this has absolutely nothing to do with the President of Iran". is not over the issue of legitimacy of President Ahmadinejad but "an outpouring of grief" and "the support of the establishment". Could this be a distancing of the defence of the regime from a defence of the President?
1258 GMT: Now the emphasis is on the "greatness" and "magnanimity" of the regime based on "religious jurisprudence", with the Iranian people as a model for all Muslims. However, "we should not remain passive" any longer and "we should take the initiative" against those plotting conspiracies.
1255 GMT: And Now the Warning. Ayatollah Alamalhoda says that a deadline should be set for repentance. If protesters do not repent, they should be treated as "mohareb" (enemies of God), with the attendant punishment.
1250 GMT: Heavy criticism of those responsible for "fighting" on Ashura: "the Leader of the Islamic Revolution invited the rioters to return to the right path".
1243 GMT: Speeches have begun with tagline, "We have to accept rule of current religious jurisprudence." Quickly, the theme is that the United States is pushing the "party of Satan" protesting against the Iranian regime.
The speaker is Ayatollah Alamalhoda, the Friday Prayer leader of Mashhad.
1236 GMT: A wider shot around the Press TV correspondent ("Iranian nation" against the "disrespect" of Ashura, 16 Azar, etc.) establishes that there are thousands in Enghelab Square.
1230 GMT: Etc., etc. Nothing new to report from the rally. You can just put our comments from 1147 to 1208 GMT, like the Press TV coverage, on a loop and replay....
....Adding this: "a red line has been crossed", according to the anchorwomen, with the opposition's demonstrations and disrespect on Ashura.
1208 GMT: Press TV's correspondent finally shows up on camera in a fairly tight shot, surrounded by a few dozen protesters. That doesn't stop her from claiming "millions" have turned out. Ominously, she emphasises the line that demonstrators are demanding the "punishment" of opposition leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
1206 GMT: Ahh, Those Two Locations. It is now clear --- for those who have recorded this historic moment, follow a large black flag being fluttered --- that Press TV is claiming "two locations" for two shots from different angles of the rally in Enghelab Square.
1205 GMT: Press TV keeps trying to go to a correspondent, but she is still failing to show up "because the crowd is so loud" that she cannot find a location for the interview with studio.
1157 GMT: A Glitch in the Line? The Press TV anchorman rambles on and says, against a split-screen purportedly showing the rallies, that shots are of protests in "two different locations" in Tehran. However, he never names those locations.
Otherwise, this is the narrative: "MKO-Foreign Governments inciting violence, particuarly Foreign Minister David Miliband of the UK-Also President Obama-MKO-Foreign Interference".
1147 GMT: Press TV has now cut into programming to show live shots from Tehran. Initial close-range shots of the crowd give way to a long shot which (sorry to be uncertain) may or may not be of today. The anchorman's description is boiler-plate claim of continuing pro-regime demonstrations, with emphasis on rallies on Tuesday as well, against the "vandalism" of the opposition and "its violation of one of the most sacred events on the Muslim calendar".
An addition to the party line, however, is the focus on "MKO terrorists" declaring their role in the Ashura "riots" (see 1000 GMT).
1145 GMT: The Ritual Warning. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has repeated the party line, including the hint of the death penalty, with the declaration, "There is no more room for tolerance over participants in illegal rallies....Those who participate in illegal rallies will be confronted more harshly and the judiciary will confront them more decisively."
Ahmadi-Moghaddam added, "Some of the protesters on Sunday are considered as mohareb (enemy of God) and will be confronted firmly." Capital punishment can be imposed on "mohareb".
1140 GMT: We're watching for first references to the pro-regime protest called for 3 p.m. local time (1130 GMT) in Tehran. So far Press TV English has not cut into its programming to provide an update.
1040 GMT: Death Penalty for Protest? German media are highlighting a statement by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, that the legal structure will be put in place within 24 hours for capital punishment against leaders of demonstrations.
1025 GMT: "The Velvet Revolution" Moves From CNN to IRNA. The Islamic Republic News Agency is also highlighting an interview with US-based academic Kaveh Afrasiabi on CNN as confirmation of foreign intervention against the regime. Afrasiabi told CNN, "We have seen tremendous evidence of meddling, by the UK Government in particular, during and after the Presidential election, and there is no doubt in my mind...that the British Government is determined to see regime change in Iran.
1020 GMT: The Regime Stays Negative. As we ventured in our analysis this morning, the Iranian Government appears to have put aside any attempt at a "positive" campaign to mobilise support in favour of bashing the opposition. The Islamic Republic News Agency is dominated by stories vowing punishment of protesters: Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has taken prime position for the moment with his declaration that the Iran's judiciary will "deal decisively" with the "anti-revolutionary" movement.
Moslehi also maintained the line that "foreign elements" were responsible for "assassinations" on Ashura.
1000 GMT: The Regime's Unexpected Helper? Press TV has jumped on an interview by Maryam Rajavi, the head of the National Council of Resistance in Iran, to headline, "The Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) has acknowledged that it played a role in Sunday's violent anti-government protests in Iran."
The NCRI is the political wing of MKO, which has carried out a violent campaign since 1979 to overthrow the Iranian Government. According to Press TV, Rajavi told Agence France Press that her organisation's followers "cooperated with the demonstrators and coordinated the protests". She supposedly said, "[The protests are] a call for solidarity among all those who reject the rule of the Supreme Leader, the velayat e-faqih....What we call the 'Green movement' against the electoral fraud quickly disappeared to be replaced by a deeper movement whose goal is the total overthrow of the regime."
0915 GMT: How Big Were the Pro-Government Protests? An interesting discussion amongst EA readers overnight of footage from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, supposedly showing thousands of people chanting against "rioters" and for the regime. Authenticity is far from certain --- note the debate in comments below over the trees blurred in the video --- and I am still looking for confirmation in the Iranian press.
Meanwhile, pictures of a rally by Iranian members of Parliament on Tuesday show few demonstrators beyond the MPs.
0845 GMT: We've now posted video claiming to be of the attack on Ayatollah Dastgheib's offices (see 0830 GMT) in Shiraz.
0835 GMT: Uncertainty and Rumour. Testifying to our theme today, a prominent Iranian activist, Mehdi Saharkhiz, has posted an account of a supposed meeting between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, discussing the situation after Ashura.
0830 GMT: The Regime v. The Clerics. Radio Farda has more on the story, which we noted yesterday, of attacks on the offices of Ayatollah Sane'i and Ayatollah Dastghaib in Mashhad and Shiraz.
0815 GMT: In our special analysis this morning, we began from Iran's settling into "tensions of uncertainty" after the Ashura demonstrations and the regime's fightback with widespread arrests.
The uncertainty is evident this morning in news that the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Seyed Ali Mousavi, is buried in Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, reportedly after only the Government gave only a few hours' notice that the body should now be laid to rest. No prizes for guessing why, as the regime tries to limit any post-Ashura rallies --- Seyed Ali Mousavi was killed in Sunday's demonstrations.
Or, to be precise, post-Ashura rallies of the opposition. The regime's other gambit today is the call for a mass pro-Government demonstration in Tehran. The uncertainty, even with reports that "thousands" gathered on Monday and Tuesday to condemn the "rioters" of Ashura, is whether this demonstration will be a substantive indication of widespread support, especially for President Ahmadinejad.
And then there are the uncertainties that go beyond today's events. Consider, for example, how a rumour without any clear evidence is now "news". The Twitter chatter on Sunday was that a jet, with an escort of military fighters, was ready at Mehrabad Airport for the Supreme Leader to fly to Russia. Yesterday, that chatter, backed up by a mysterious fax, turned into "news" on Radio Netherlands, and today it is worthy of publication in The Huffington Post.
Agence France Presse, Ayatollah Alamalhoda, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastghaib, Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, BBC Persian, CNN, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Heydar Moslehi, Hossein Karroubi, Huffington Post, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Republic News Agency, Maryam Rajavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mehdi Saharkhiz, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Nader Mokhtari, Nasrullah Torabi, National Council of Resistance of Iran, Press TV, Pyeke Iran, Radio Netherlands, Rah-e-Sabz, Seyed Ali Mousavi, Shirzad Bozorgmehr, Voice of America, Zahra Rahnavard in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (241)
Bozorg
yes it is a shame, really. i'm not a supporter of every thing the government does, in fact i believe they have done great mistakes that if not done would prevent the current situation. I just want to be fair and have an objective view.
shari,
you can go on with the story of cakes as long as you wish.
m.s.
...and you go to Qom and never return!
Bacheha, if you stop quarreling, I promise you a Sundis and Teatop each ;-)
Kaleme reports on a new list with names of hundreds of dissidents to be arrested soon: http://www.kaleme.org/1388/10/09/klm-7023
Continuous psychological warfare on the Greens? Remember that yesterday bombings were announced for today's pro-gov demonstrations and nothing happened, fortunately. Stay calm and centered...
m.s.,
In case you haven't seen this, here is a video of peaceful protesters being attacked by security forces on Ashura. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGACDMtOpr8
The protesters have adopted non-violence. They have been met with violence.
Since you're a reasonable person, you'll let me know if the video has changed your mind, and if not, why.
paleene
I have alot of these example to bring here because I have done a research on this subject, but I know bringing more example wouldn't help here because you don't want to accept. I know that the givernment has acted harshly in cases and I don't support it, but let's not mix up the cases tgfether, i was talking about the rally.
shari
"Savak used to do this so does your secret services to blame others and to provoke!" my secret services, lol, come on, i neither responsible nor support the wrongdoings of the government!!! If they have tortured the prisoners they should be punished.
[edited by moderator]
Bozorg, Arshama, others!
Please do not waste your valuable time trying to convert [m.s.] There is simply no value in bringing evidence after evidence to this person!
Just ignore him and he will go away!
Hi evrey one
I would like to bring the attention to the facts to orevent waste of time by going back and discuss the proven.
To reach some sort of consensus /enlightenment we better clarify the facts again:
1. The elction was corrupted and Mousavi was deprived from is win.
2. The regime id illegitimate and should be changed
3 The regime has <10% supprt and mostly paid.
4. The clergy hiarachy does not support Ali Khamenei.
5. The regime failed bringing even 10% of mousavi's numbers to the street yesterday in spite of all the facilities including,transport,treat,sandevich,juice and money. In another word ,it was stupid enough to document its faliures for history.
6. We can not let Khamenei shed more blood of the resistance and we should talk about a solidarity organization as suggested by NCRI and referred to by Masoud Rajavi yesterday.
There are more points to consider but please be practical and promote the facts agreed on to prevent interuption by the regome's elements
Jim
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m.s.
"If they have tortured the prisoners they should be punished." They have "Raped" young men in Kahrizak! You really want me to beleive that Your governement has justice system functioning Justly! I wish they had only "Tortured" people, Raping Young men is utterly unheard of anywhere on this planet for demonstrating in the streets!....
"Just ignore him and he will go away!"
Thank you Shari, I'll go to sleep now.
You might benefit from your own advice, though? ;)
Paleene,
Thanks! You are right! I will switch off now!
bozorg,
the speed of internet is very low so I can't see the clip but I might have seen similar videos. yes it is true that things like this have happened since the election but let's be fair, has this been alwayse the case with the protestors or the security forces?
shari
I'm really sorry for you. I believe that the reason behind all the crisis in iran is a way of thinking like yours. if all of us would hear what the person who disagrees with us say the situation would not haveturned into this.
Dear Shari, no comment...
"This flame will not extinguish" http://www.zeit.de/2010/01/Iran
Bad times for the regime, when even turncoats like Navid Kermani change allegiance.
m.s.,
I strongly suggest that you view that video when you have the time.
Yes, let's be fair.
Have you viewed the visual evidence from the past 6 months? Have you witnessed the violence that non-violent protesters have been subjected to? I believe if you make a sincere effort to view the visual evidence, you will have no doubt about who the real perpetrator of violence is.
I think if you were fair, you would realize that discussing who burned which garbage bin is irrelevant given the current atmosphere of brutality against protesters and dissidents.
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m.s.
know this is to be my last retort to you!
I was not responsible for the mess in your country! YOU and your like minded folks and your corrupt ruling elite was! I and majority of your people have not been able to say anything against the opinion of people like YOU! You have executed many thousnads all because YOU did not agree with them! Your regime RAPED those young boys NOT me and people like me and the majority of your people! YOU have called people against YOUR thinking as "Mohareb" (infidel and those worthy of DEATH). Just look at your papers see how much HATE YOU have scattered into this world! YOU are the one WE should be sorry for m.s. NOT me and YOUR fellow countrymen, sine they will FREE soon from YOUR barbaric prison YOU have built for them! They will be FREE m.s. and YOU and YOUR small minded, manipulative lunatic shall live in your own sorrow and on YOUR own! The world will move on and YOU and YOUR Regime's Filthy legacy shall live till eternity, like Changiz Khan, Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot et al! Go and seek redemption from YOUR people....
m.s.,
You know the real issue is not whether some teenager tossed a rock at a police officer, or whether the police officer chucked a rock at him first.
The original issue was the legitimacy of the election, and now it's the legitimacy of this government.
Ali, Samuel, & Bozorg,
Lets examine some facts about the "millions" from a bigger perspective beyond this one event.
1) It happened and quite a few showed up
2) It was highly organized
3) They had loud speakers and officials yelling through blow horns to elicit chants
4) They provided inducements(cakes for example)--personally believe they should have used Ahmadinejad 'members only jackets' instead. They would have got quite a few more to show up. :)
5) Before hand they had wide ranging efforts to recruit. My friends mom who is here in the states told me they literally went to every business and school to 'invite' people. I was told while it was an invite for the people the management were told 'they needed to show up.' In addition numerous buses were seen packed with people unloading them in Tehran.
6) Why is this the first time they showed wide ranging pan shots and 'advertised' this rally unlike many previous others. The answer is because it was the only large scale demonstration that they could!
7) Foreign media was invited to these events
Now lets examine pro reform demonstrations:
1) They happened with much greater frequency
2) They were largely spontaneous and not well organized if at all
3) The inducement was human rights enshrined in the constitution being trampled
4) Almost all gov't media organizations have a black out rule in effect prohibiting them from talking about let alone showing the demonstrations
5) News articles penned by the regime are brief to non existent. It is as if the events did not take place
6) Foreign media is banned and if they show up they are arrested
7) All protests were met with brutal gov't repression
8) Thousands arrested simply for voicing their right to an opinion
9) Gov't news coverage when talking about events only minimizes the event often throwing out the canard of foreign involement
So what does this show us? It shows us a regime clearly manipulating the field to present its 'view' only. You have to ask your self how much legitamacy does a regime that has to go through so much effort to organize a succesful rally trully have. The fact of the matter is the opposition despite the crackdown does not have to go through a lot of effort to bring people on the street. The regime on the other hand has to expend a huge effort to match the greens just one time. I liken this to a soccer match in which one side is not even allowed to take the field--the other side of course scores the goal and says they win--how hollow a victory.
So boo hoo to one succesful march--lets see if they can repeat it without having to, like in the past, show video of previous events. Just like the election the regime 'fixes' everything and everyone can see it. Just imagine how many would show up if they had the same conditions the greens did--the answer is none.
Thx
Bill
Bill,
I think you should play closer attention to my comments. They're far more nuanced then you have made them out to be.
We've all witnessed the complete honesty and restraint the Islamic regime has shown through all stages of protests. Without doubt the opposition is to be blamed for atrocious behavior such as "self-defence" against the Basij (who are sometimes confused with angels). There's simply not a shred of evidence that the government has a hand in vandalism or violence! Now before you say "what about all these videos and images?". Well, was "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" real?
I really don't understand why you would lump me in with Ali and Samuel. You've repeated a lot of the things I've said.
Reasoning with MS, Samuel et al. is like reasoning with a rock, it doesn't work. They are only here to turn attention away from what is really happening to buy this regime a few more days, months or years (which is unlikely) they know in the end it is futile.
Why don't we just ignore these regime lackeys!? and move on.
Sunday was a grand day for the green movement nothing else matters.
VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV
shari,
I don't want to respond to you in the same harsh words that you used. your words are full of hatred and hatred is always blind. you are right, if that's what makes you happy :)
bozorg,
I will see it surely.
Hi Scott
What happened to my posting?
Bozorg,
I think you may have taken my inclusion of your name the wrong way. I included you because in my estimation you provided the best perspective. My attempt was to just aggregate some of the thougts I had in support of what you said. I read all your posts and have to admit I got a laugh out of the 'wit' displayed in your bantering with Samuel.
Thx
Bill
Seyed,
it's now around 4 am and i'm awake and here bcause I want to see what other people who have ideas rather than mine say, I'm afraid that this thread is full of intollerence.
To summarize the bruital nature of this regime if you speak farsi lesten to this Friday prayer Molla who is asking the forces of suppression specially the so called plain cloth intellegence thugs not to arrest the opposition but kill them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMph3WDKTFc
This is the real example of what is going on these peoples mind and how much they beleive in election and democracy.
They enjoy the oil money and distribute it through to their thugs and secretly continue to advance their nuclear ambitions.
My previous posting went missing and I refer again that we should think of a
Solidarity force that removes the excuse by regime to blame Saudis,UK,USA,Israil, MKO , NCRI or others for the uprising ASAP.