The Latest from Iran (30 December): Rallies and Rumours

2205 GMT: The Iranian regime, as it blames foreign media for fomenting unrest, continues the attempt to block the services. Voice of America and BBC Persian report sustained jamming efforts.

2055 GMT: The Hidden Story? An Iranian activist makes the interesting and important claim that the rumours around Mousavi and Karroubi have obscured a major story tonight --- "500 thugs attacked students with knives and machetes" at Mashhad University. We've got footage of the clash in our video section.

2050 GMT: Nothing has happened to change our opinion of 1915 GMT. We are treating Iranian state media's story of "two opposition figures" fleeing to northern Iran as rumour or disinformation.

2020 GMT: Reuters is carrying the opposition's denial of IRNA's story:

Hossein Karoubi, the son of moderate defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karoubi, said his father and opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi were still in Tehran.

"My father and Mr. Mousavi are in Tehran and IRNA's report is baseless. They are still pursuing the people's demands," Hossein Karoubi told moderate Parlemannews.

2005 GMT: Andrew Sullivan has gotten wind of what appears to be a five minute video of a group of security forces disarming after being surrounded by a crowd of demonstrators. We've added it to today's video page.

1915 GMT: Rumours. We're off on a 90-minute break. At this point, we consider the Islamic Republic News Agency story of the Karroubi/Mousavi flight to northern Iran "unconfirmed", with the possibility that it is either a rumour being elevated to "news" or a regime disinformation campaign.

Both the Karroubi and Mousavi camps have denied the story. It should also be noted that the rumour was being spread earlier today that Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard had been detained, and no confirmation has followed.

BBC Persian is interviewing one of Karroubi's sons about 1930 GMT.

1910 GMT: We've posted footage of demonstrations today at Shahryar Qods Azad and Mashhad Universities.

1905 GMT: The Regime Rally (cont.). Peyke Iran, which has published photos indicating a smaller rally than the "hundreds of thousands" cited by other outlets (see 1853 GMT), is now off-line. (1926 GMT: Website is back up.)

1853 GMT: The Regime Rally. CNN's Shirzad Bozorgmehr claims "hundreds of thousands" at today's gathering. He said that at Vali-e Asr Square, he could not get further because of the dense crowd. From a bridge, he watched an area from Imam Hossein Square to Enghelab Square, a distance of about 18 kilometres (11 miles).

NEW Latest Iran Video: University Protests (30 December)
NEW Iran: The Uncertainties of Oppression and Protest
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Strength of the Regime? (29 December)
Latest Iran Video: Today’s University Protest (29 December)
Iran: A List of the Ashura Detainees
Iran: The Regime’s Fightback?
The Latest on Iran (29 December): A Desperate Swing of the Fist

1850 GMT: Mousavi Denial? It looks like Mousavi camp is also denying the IRNA story of "flight" to northern Iran, informing American ABC News that Mousavi is still in Tehran.

1840 GMT: Karroubi Denial of "Fleeing". Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has denounced reports that his father and Mir Hossein Mousavi "rumours" spread by Iranian state media. Hossein Karroubi says his father is still in Tehran "working for the people".

1820 GMT: Meanwhile, Some Rhetoric. Speaking to the Islamic Association of Students in Europe, the Supreme Leader said the Western condemnation of the recent events in Iran had been prompted by the influence of "Zionist media".

1815 GMT: IRNA on Mousavi and Karroubi? The Islamic Republic News Agency's account says two "riot leaders fled from Tehran" to Mazandaran amidst "demands for their punishment".

1810 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi in "Protective Custody"? Returned from a break to find Rah-e-Sabz is checking an Islamic Republic News Agency that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have been taken to a small town, Kalar Abad, in Mazandaran in northern Iran "for their protection" under the watch of Ministry of Intelligence and Revolutionary Guard forces. Rah-e-Sabz cautions that this might be a falsehood.

We are urgently checking the news.

1410 GMT: The office of reformist member of Parliament Nasrullah Torabi has been set on fire.

1403 GMT: The "Millions" and Ahmadinejad. Press TV is pushing the line that "millions" turned out today to demonstrate for the regime and against the Ashura "rioters", showing claimed footage from Shiraz, Tabriz, Gilan, Arak, and Sistan-Baluchestan as well as Tehran. Press TV is backing this up with coverage of the Maryam Rajavi statement (see 1000 GMT) as proof of MKO "terrorist" involvement.

The station also briefly features President Ahmadinejad's statement, issued after a Cabinet meeting, that "efforts to destabilise Iran would not affect the nation".  and that the US and Western leaders should learn from their past mistakes.

1335 GMT: Rahnavard Arrested? Meanwhile, we're watching closely the rumour, which began circulating about an hour ago, that the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, has been detained.

1308 GMT: That's pretty much it, as Press TV goes back to the studio for the anchorwoman and "analyst" (journalist Nader Mokhtari) to repeat the standard line of "masses" of "religious" Iranian people standing against a foreign-stimulated opposition.

However, mark this exchange: Mokhtari and the anchorwoman are at great pains to say "this isn't a pro-Ahmadinejad rally....this has absolutely nothing to do with the President of Iran". is not over the issue of legitimacy of President Ahmadinejad but "an outpouring of grief" and "the support of the establishment". Could this be a distancing of the defence of the regime from a defence of the President?

1258 GMT: Now the emphasis is on the "greatness" and "magnanimity" of the regime based on "religious jurisprudence", with the Iranian people as a model for all Muslims. However, "we should not remain passive" any longer and "we should take the initiative" against those plotting conspiracies.

1255 GMT: And Now the Warning. Ayatollah Alamalhoda says that a deadline should be set for repentance. If protesters do not repent, they should be treated as "mohareb" (enemies of God), with the attendant punishment.

1250 GMT: Heavy criticism of those responsible for "fighting" on Ashura: "the Leader of the Islamic Revolution invited the rioters to return to the right path".

1243 GMT: Speeches have begun with tagline, "We have to accept rule of current religious jurisprudence." Quickly, the theme is that the United States is pushing the "party of Satan" protesting against the Iranian regime.

The speaker is Ayatollah Alamalhoda, the Friday Prayer leader of Mashhad.

1236 GMT: A wider shot around the Press TV correspondent ("Iranian nation" against the "disrespect" of Ashura, 16 Azar, etc.) establishes that there are thousands in Enghelab Square.

1230 GMT: Etc., etc. Nothing new to report from the rally. You can just put our comments from 1147 to 1208 GMT, like the Press TV coverage, on a loop and replay....

....Adding this: "a red line has been crossed", according to the anchorwomen, with the opposition's demonstrations and disrespect on Ashura.

1208 GMT: Press TV's correspondent finally shows up on camera in a fairly tight shot, surrounded by a few dozen protesters. That doesn't stop her from claiming "millions" have turned out. Ominously, she emphasises the line that demonstrators are demanding the "punishment" of opposition leaders like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1206 GMT: Ahh, Those Two Locations. It is now clear --- for those who have recorded this historic moment, follow a large black flag being fluttered --- that Press TV is claiming "two locations" for two shots from different angles of the rally in Enghelab Square.

1205 GMT: Press TV keeps trying to go to a correspondent, but she is still failing to show up "because the crowd is so loud" that she cannot find a location for the interview with studio.

1157 GMT: A Glitch in the Line? The Press TV anchorman rambles on and says, against a split-screen purportedly showing the rallies, that shots are of protests in "two different locations" in Tehran. However, he never names those locations.

Otherwise, this is the narrative: "MKO-Foreign Governments inciting violence, particuarly Foreign Minister David Miliband of the UK-Also President Obama-MKO-Foreign Interference".

1147 GMT: Press TV has now cut into programming to show live shots from Tehran. Initial close-range shots of the crowd give way to a long shot which (sorry to be uncertain) may or may not be of today. The anchorman's description is boiler-plate claim of continuing pro-regime demonstrations, with emphasis on rallies on Tuesday as well, against the "vandalism" of the opposition and "its violation of one of the most sacred events on the Muslim calendar".

An addition to the party line, however, is the focus on "MKO terrorists" declaring their role in the Ashura "riots" (see 1000 GMT).

1145 GMT: The Ritual Warning. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has repeated the party line, including the hint of the death penalty, with the declaration, "There is no more room for tolerance over participants in illegal rallies....Those who participate in illegal rallies will be confronted more harshly and the judiciary will confront them more decisively."

Ahmadi-Moghaddam added, "Some of the protesters on Sunday are considered as mohareb (enemy of God) and will be confronted firmly." Capital punishment can be imposed on "mohareb".

1140 GMT: We're watching for first references to the pro-regime protest called for 3 p.m. local time (1130 GMT) in Tehran. So far Press TV English has not cut into its programming to provide an update.

1040 GMT: Death Penalty for Protest? German media are highlighting a statement by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, that the legal structure will be put in place within 24 hours for capital punishment against leaders of demonstrations.

1025 GMT: "The Velvet Revolution" Moves From CNN to IRNA. The Islamic Republic News Agency is also highlighting an interview with US-based academic Kaveh Afrasiabi on CNN as confirmation of foreign intervention against the regime. Afrasiabi told CNN, "We have seen tremendous evidence of meddling, by the UK Government in particular, during and after the Presidential election, and there is no doubt in my mind...that the British Government is determined to see regime change in Iran.

1020 GMT: The Regime Stays Negative. As we ventured in our analysis this morning, the Iranian Government appears to have put aside any attempt at a "positive" campaign to mobilise support in favour of bashing the opposition. The Islamic Republic News Agency is dominated by stories vowing punishment of protesters: Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi has taken prime position for the moment with his declaration that the Iran's judiciary will "deal decisively" with the "anti-revolutionary" movement.

Moslehi also maintained the line that "foreign elements" were responsible for "assassinations" on Ashura.

1000 GMT: The Regime's Unexpected Helper? Press TV has jumped on an interview by Maryam Rajavi, the head of the National Council of Resistance in Iran, to headline, "The Mujahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MKO) has acknowledged that it played a role in Sunday's violent anti-government protests in Iran."

The NCRI is the political wing of MKO, which has carried out a violent campaign since 1979 to overthrow the Iranian Government. According to Press TV, Rajavi told Agence France Press that her organisation's followers "cooperated with the demonstrators and coordinated the protests". She supposedly said, "[The protests are] a call for solidarity among all those who reject the rule of the Supreme Leader, the velayat e-faqih....What we call the 'Green movement' against the electoral fraud quickly disappeared to be replaced by a deeper movement whose goal is the total overthrow of the regime."

0915 GMT: How Big Were the Pro-Government Protests? An interesting discussion amongst EA readers overnight of footage from the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, supposedly showing thousands of people chanting against "rioters" and for the regime. Authenticity is far from certain --- note the debate in comments below over the trees blurred in the video --- and I am still looking for confirmation in the Iranian press.

Meanwhile, pictures of a rally by Iranian members of Parliament on Tuesday show few demonstrators beyond the MPs.

0845 GMT: We've now posted video claiming to be of the attack on Ayatollah Dastgheib's offices (see 0830 GMT) in Shiraz.

0835 GMT: Uncertainty and Rumour. Testifying to our theme today, a prominent Iranian activist, Mehdi Saharkhiz, has posted an account of a supposed meeting between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, discussing the situation after Ashura.

0830 GMT: The Regime v. The Clerics. Radio Farda has more on the story, which we noted yesterday, of attacks on the offices of Ayatollah Sane'i and Ayatollah Dastghaib in Mashhad and Shiraz.

0815 GMT: In our special analysis this morning, we began from Iran's settling into "tensions of uncertainty" after the Ashura demonstrations and the regime's fightback with widespread arrests.

The uncertainty is evident this morning in news that the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Seyed Ali Mousavi, is buried in Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, reportedly after only the Government gave only a few hours' notice that the body should now be laid to rest. No prizes for guessing why, as the regime tries to limit any post-Ashura rallies --- Seyed Ali Mousavi was killed in Sunday's demonstrations.

Or, to be precise, post-Ashura rallies of the opposition. The regime's other gambit today is the call for a mass pro-Government demonstration in Tehran. The uncertainty, even with reports that "thousands" gathered on Monday and Tuesday to condemn the "rioters" of Ashura, is whether this demonstration will be a substantive indication of widespread support, especially for President Ahmadinejad.

And then there are the uncertainties that go beyond today's events. Consider, for example, how a rumour without any clear evidence is now "news". The Twitter chatter on Sunday was that a jet, with an escort of military fighters, was ready at Mehrabad Airport for the Supreme Leader to fly to Russia. Yesterday, that chatter, backed up by a mysterious fax, turned into "news" on Radio Netherlands, and today it is worthy of publication in The Huffington Post.

Comments

[Bozorg]

Bill,

Thanks for the clarification. :) I agree with your analysis 100%.

m.s.,

I'm glad you have a negative opinion of intolerance. Do you hold the same opinion about the government's intolerance?

[m. s.]

Bozorg,
yes I do! I believe if the government and the protestors had practiced tolerance in the earlier days of the crisis it ahould have been resolved in more peaceful ways by now.

[Bill]

Bozorg,

Was getting a little worried after I read your second post to me. Sorry I put you in that bind--wasn't my intention. I am very much in support of the green movement. I respond to others who are pro regime to show them that unlike the intolerant regime they support we are tolerant and support their right to comment. For some reason they never seem to get it. Hopefully one day they will realize that but that will most likely not come until after they are in evin and figured out they said something the regime didn't like.

Thx
Bill

[Jim]

This is another fact:

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Govt-losing-supporters--admits-Khamenei/561707

[lettersoftheliv]

M.S.,

I am curious what exactly you feel the June election protesters should have tolerated? Their votes being uncounted? Or being attacked violently in the streets?

And you remarked about a "peaceful resolution" that could have come about had both sides acted tolerantly. The massive numbers of non-violent protesters for the last six months, in the face of illegal government violence, is my new definition of "peaceful." If my loved ones were beaten with batons or arrested and raped, and I refrained from exacting violent revenge on their government perpetrators- and instead only *peacefully demanded justice* I think I could be described as peaceful and tolerant.

You didn't mean by peaceful that they should have been silent, did you?
Because I can't make sense of your last comment.

[m. s.]

Bill,
I just missed your post, I'm really sleepy now. when I say that the supporters of the system turned in million it does not mean that I ignore the green supporters who also turned in million in early days of the protest, I even admit that in tehran the opposition may have more supporters than the system. what I believe in is the impartiality of all media outlets, on both sides. By the way, thank you for your tolerance friend :)

[Jim]

@m.s
you seem to be in Iran with goog internet connections.
Do you have to be connected to get a proper connection?
Most of my friends have difficulty opening their emails there due to the slow internet sped.
Jim

[m. s.]

lettersoftheliv

look, no real human being likes to see the suffering of any person. and if you forget Ashri's comment on me (that I'm A BEAST!!) I don't want to see the suffering of other people, let alone my own countrymen. by tolerance on the side of the opposition i mean them resorting to legal actions based onthe framework of law, for example they could at least once tried making a complaint and giving it to the judiciary. if no results came after that then other steps.

Jim,
I'm not in Tehran now, here the speed is better and i can check my emails without problem. besides, it 4:30 am in th emorning and so the traffic is lower than in daytime

[Bozorg]

m.s.,

I'm sure you know that Mousavi went to great pains to express his grievance through legal means. The Guardian Council did not act in a transparent way when assessing accusations of fraud. But would you expect anything different from an unelected and unaccountable body of clerics appointed by Khamenei?

The opposition did not break the law by organizing street demonstrations. It is a right enshrined in the constitution - with the qualification that it doesn't undermine Islam. But guess who gets to decide that! :)

Come on, m.s., Mousavi and the opposition weren't even allowed to go on television after the election to express their views.

[m. s.]

i'm going to sleep now so forgive me if I didn't answer you any more!!!
By the way HAPPY NEW YEAR!!

[lettersoftheliv]

M.S.,

huh. So you are saying you are unaware of the multiple attempts to address the concerns of the protesters through both Iranian and International law? I thought you said you relied on an unbiased media to inform you of the truth? Is it that you haven't been reading/watching the news reporting this process, or are these facts missing from your news?

[Jim]

@m.s
Unfortunately for those in Iran specially other cities than Tehran the censorship stops them geting the updates information.
Dear m.s. The green movement did seek legal roots but the supremAli dismiss them before even being taken seriously.
The tries to hijack the subject.
Remember that this regime is like a poisonous snake and you can not expect it to deliver The white Dove of freedom.
In order not to waste each other's time we better agree on certain facts first.
jim

[m. s.]

Bozorg,
I think he should have at least participated in the session with the guardian council in which the three candidates were to deliver their proofs of fraud. it was a big chance for him to have his voice heard officially but he ignored it.
I really can't hold my eyes open any more, shab be kheir Bozorg (harchand ke inja dige rooz dare mishe ;))

[Bozorg]

m.s.,

Just as we were getting somewhere....shabbet be kheir :)

[m. s.]

oh my God! I can't leave without answering Jim and lettersoftheliv .
lettersoftheliv

I have read nearly 400 articles in 3 important american websites related to iran's election only in a period of one month after the election and I'm doing a research on them so better not to judge me as being fed only by internal media. I insist, they should have used the chances offered to them first.

Jim,
I don't live in tehran but I study in tehran, well familiar with what is happening in the capital.

I'm sorry i need some sleep right away. bye

[m. s.]

Bozorg,
mikhastam edame bedam vali aslan nemitoonam dige bidar bemoonam, sa@t 5 sobhe! say mikonam dobareh biam, harchand saram kheili sholooghe. vaghean mikham bedoonam baghye che joor fekr mikonan, bye!

[Bozorg]

m.s.,

khoshal shodam keh harfzadeem. boro bekhab! khoda negardareh

[Impster spotter]

Bozorg

I also saw other reports with your sited number of protesters, but I was in Tehran and can guarantee you are lying. If you were at a government sanctioned protest, it should be easy for you to produce video footage, aerial shots and give specific details that us who were there can confirm. Unfortunately I have seen non from you.

Team please welcome our new kind of IRI internet hackers. They take the form of the enemy (Anti government people) and dissipate false info.

Samuel was so fake he was spotted a mile away, this new type is harder to spot.

Read the CNN report of government protests and the same person is mentioned there. Its the failure of distance internet journalism. One source is quoted everywhere.

[Bill]

M.S.

I am assuming your Ali who posted earlier. If not I did read your posts but my response was not in direct response to those. Regardless I agree tolerance and impartiality is the answer. The problem is one side, the current regime, does not trully believe that. That was the point of my whole post. The regime's support is manufactured rather than true support. The Green movement despite all the odds continues on and in my mind that is a reflection of true support. My analysis was an effort to shed light on the disparity of the two and show the difference. My analysis also has led me to the conclusion the regime cannot trully depend on "true support" because it would be the death of their system. My only hope is the regime will come back to their religion to reflect. It brings to mind this following quote:

"Those who worship God for the hope of gaining, they’re not real worshippers, they’re merchants. Those who worship God out of fear (of punishment), they’re slaves. And those who worship God to be grateful towards their creator, they are the free people, and their worship is a real one." Husayn ibn Ali

All the best to you.

Bill

[lettersoftheliv]

M.S.,

Why do you infer that I am judging you? Are you changing the subject? I was asking you your sources because what you said didn't make sense to me- if you have been exposed to unbiased media, you would know the Greens have rigorously pursued legal channels, including through the hague. So, if you are claiming you are unaware of that, I simply find your statements unfollowable.

[Bill]

Impster spotter says,

Are you implying Bozorg is a IRI imposter? Wow thats like saying Obama is a Nazi. Everything I have read from Borzog clearly says he is a supporter of the reform movement. You may need to go back an read his posts.

Thx
Bill

[Bozorg]

Impster Spotter,

I think you have me confused with someone else, or you've misunderstood me. I'm hardly a regime supporter, and the only number I've cited is a guess about the number of demonstrators today, which I speculated to be on the low end of tens of thousands.

[Hossein]

Bill is right on. Thank you. We are accustomed to the type of bizarre "logical arguments" by the IRI. For a while we were duped in trying to figure out the "logic" but we now know it all to be a big lie. The, it seems, are trained to respond by posing a question,often ridiculous ones. No longer are we fooled. The Iranian people have arisen and we will take our land back from a bunch of thugs, ignorant ones at that, who have pilfered the national wealth. Just read the fantastic description of how the "Leader" (the Persian rahbar has a telling German equivalent) has amassed an enormous amount of wealth. He, his family and his cronies. How unjust. They then kill people on the streets, including this time by running them over by a police van in open daylight, and they torture and rape, and then have the gall to come out and say "it was the enemy." Yes the enemy of the Iranian people. Te IRI and the thugs. The childish "debate" a few supporters of the IRI is a clear indication that they are not interested in the truth, only in "cleverly"—they think—fooling you and me. Well it is not working. Iran is being rid of those who lie. FREEDOM! Now that is the cry.

[Hossein]

Imposter Spotter is good, however, Bozorg is not an IRI supporter, I am sure. This fellow Samuel is a parody of the whole IRI: pretense, self-grandeur, cunning, and so on. Iranians are not fooled. We are also not fooled by Hezbollah anymore. They watched Iranians being raped and killed and maimed, and yet they not only did not say a thing, their "leader" came out and praised this "leader" for his divine right and all the rest of that.

[Megan]

Scott,

EA has been invaded by regime Cyber Basiji. We need to know who falsely claim they are in Iran or and have eye witness account of events. You are able to determine that by looking at their IP address, are you not?