Iran's Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go

Here is why the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December) are important.

They are unlikely to bring the Ahmadinejad Government to its knees or prompt the Supreme Leader to pack his bags. They will not threaten to topple the Islamic Republic, which after all is not what the majority of protesters want. They will not even get a short-term response on critical issues such as adherence to the Constitution, the legal redress of the abuse of detainees, or any admission that the election of June 2009 was flawed, let alone rigged.

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However, a mass of demonstrators on the streets on 16 December --- not necessarily in one place, since it will be a priority of the security forces to prevent a single grouping that can dominate media coverage and draw in even more protestors --- will hold open and even create political "space". And it is "space" that will ensure the Ahmadinejad Government cannot be assured of legitimacy.

I am not sure that this has been appreciated, even by dedicated watchers of the Green Movement. The marches of 13 Aban (4 November) were an important indicator that the marathon of dissent would continue. But then it was a five-week stretch to 16 Azar, and inevitably doubts and debates crept in. Where was the leadership of the movement, given apparent uncertainty and caution of key figures, and did that matter if it was the "people" that were generating the Green Wave? Were activists considering a move to violent methods and could this be checked? What does this Movement seek?

This examination was inevitable. It is impossible to sustain the energy of a Qods Day or 13 Aban, so breath has to be drawn, thoughts collected, plans laid. At the same time, however, the Government was making its own move on "space", closing off the possibility that the Movement(s) --- which is not pursuing a single aim, is not led by a single person, and is not a single groups --- could not re-appear on 16 Azar to present its variety of objectives, frustrations, anger, hopes. So it has tried to break the protest through detentions of students leaders and threats against politicians from Mousavi to Karoubi to Rafsanjani while promoting the "legitimate" President through his world tour and declarations of authority at home. "Western" media have followed this story line: in the last 48 hours, The Wall Street Journal has gravely intoned, "Iranian Crackdown Goes Global", while The Guardian of London has shaken its head ruefully, "Iran opposition remains defiant but struggles to keep up protests". That narrative has prevented recognition of the long-term persistence of the Green opposition: one of the best US journalists admitted via Twitter yesterday, "Something I didn't know: Massive student protests in Iran scheduled for 12/7."

Do not be fooled. All of this doubt, even doom-saying is a mere waving of pens before the vital moment on Monday.

For if the thousands and tens of thousands emerge on the streets of Tehran and other cities, if news --- despite all the efforts of the Iranian Government --- comes out through blogs and Twitter and YouTube and e-mails, then the immediate objective will have been accomplished. The President has not been acclaimed, accepted, or even tolerated. The "space" has been re-opened for contests not only from outside the Iranian establishment, but from within it.

Consider two incidents in recent days. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, quieted in recent weeks but ever-stirring, has spoken on at least two occasions this week of the grave damage being done because of political disunity and the Government's attempted repression. Yesterday, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani renewed his assault on an unnamed but all-too-obvious Presidential foe:

Creating tension in the country is easy but (fostering) unity is not that simple. Damaging reputation is easy but respecting others’ dignity is important. We should not slander others in order to solidify ourselves.

The key to success is that we should not allow certain (persons) abuse the situation and put the people against each other by dividing them.

This is not in any way to argue that a Rafsanjani or Larijani are leading the Green Movement(s), let alone that they should be endorsed as "unity" candidates to replace Ahmadinejad. Nor is the reverse true: that Larijani and Rafsanjani are acting out of sympathy for the opposition rather than their own political interests. It does mean, however, that the President and his allies cannot rest assured of legitimacy.

And that, as an immediate, emotional, powerful symbol, is what a large turnout on 16 Azar will represent. Six months and the demands for recognition, for justice, and for change have not gone away. The election cannot be re-run but, for many, Ahmadinejad is not their leader, the Revolutionary Guard is not their protector, the judges are not their arbitrators, the legislators are not their spokesmen.

16 Azar will not be an endpoint, the termination of a system or even a President. It could be another tall monument, however, on a path of protest that cannot be ended by oppression, fatigue, or uncertainty.

Three Two Days to Go.

Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)

With thanks to an EA reader:

ROUTES

Tehran

1. Azadi Square - Revolution Square - Tehran University
2. Sattar Khan - Street N. - Tehran University
3. Hafte-Tir Square - St., Karim Khan - Asr Square - Keshavarz Blvd - Street workers - Tehran University
4. Tehran University dormitory complex - North Kargar Ave - Tehran University
5. Amir Kabir University - Cross-Asr - Tehran University
6. Ferdowsi Square - Street Revolution - Tehran University



Ahvaz

1. Taleghani St. - Shohada Square - Azadegan St. - Paul Nader - Coast Road - University Square
2. St. Nader - Paul Nader - Coast Road - Paul V - University Square
3. Time Square - Sports Stadium - University Square

Mashhad

Protest outside Ferdowsi University at 5:00pm

1. Chaharrahe Khayam - Azadi Sq.
2. Esteghlal Sq - Azadi Sq.

Isfahan

Protest outside University Nazar St 5:00pm

1. Chaharbargh Bala-Univ
2. Tohid St-University
3. Sheykh Sodogh Shomali-University

Shiraz

Protest outside University 5:00pm

!. Gaz Square-Azadi Blvd-Baghe Eram Blvd - Eram Square
2. Emam Hossein Square - Karimkhan - Namazi Square - Eram Square

Rasht

1. Protest outside Central building of Gilan Univ at 10:00 a.m.
2. Protest for all students and people of Rasht outside Gilan University of Medical Science (Monzariye) at 4:00 p.m.

Tabriz

1. Around the University & Abresan at 6 p.m.
2. Green traffic in nearby streets at 5 p.m.

Green Traffic Protests: (Farsi) http://bit.ly/8jzkNo

Important Information: (Farsi)

Important Information (English)

The Latest from Iran (4 December): The Weekend Before

2110 GMT: No to Sanctions. The National Iranian American Council has responded quickly to the news that members of the US House of Representatives are pressing for a vote on petroleum sanctions against Iran within the next two weeks: "Sanctions can play a constructive role within [engagement], but in order to be effective they must target the Iranian government and the individuals responsible for the government’s reprehensible behavior, with a special emphasis on those guilty of human rights violations."

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2020 GMT: Here's the Real Nuke Story. Put away the distracting rhetoric from Tehran and keep an eye on Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council and one of the key players in Iran's nuclear manoeuvres. He has been in Damascus bending the ear of President Bashir al-Assad, and now he is in Turkey meeting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Jalili may be needing Turkish help more than ever, because it looks like he got a cold shoulder from Damascus. Rumours are circulating that Syrian-Iranian relations are deteriorating, to the point where yesterday's bus explosion may have been a tough signal to Tehran.

So here's a question, given that Turkey has been a broker for the "third-party enrichment" deal? Is Jalili trying to get the Turks to accept a package where uranium stays inside Iran? Or will the pressure work the other way, with Tehran trying to find a way to accept third-party enrichment and not lose face?

1840 GMT: Yawn. Ayatollah Jannati may have gotten worked up about the possibility of protesting "American agents" taking away 16 Azar, but Iranian state media can't even care enough to give this as much coverage as Enduring America's update (see 1210 GMT). Press TV puts out the stale rhetoric, "The recent resolution by the [International Atomic Energy Agency's] Board of Governors on Iran's peaceful nuclear activities and other anti-Iran resolutions by the UN Security Council have all been adopted under US pressure," and, um, that's it.

1825 GMT: Non-News of the Day. Even though it was a slow afternoon for events, I couldn't be bothered to update the posturing on the nuclear issue: "Iran will inform IAEA on new nuclear sites when ready", "Iran says it will give just six months’ notice before it begins operating 10 planned nuclear sites," etc., etc.

EA reader Catherine, however, has not only picked up those headlines but has given them the appropriate cursory analysis: "I have to laugh at the news about Iran coming out in the last couple of hours, as if it were some big act of defiance. Well duh....of course they’re going to take their time –-- they don’t even know where five of the 10 sites are going to be located yet."

1210 GMT: The Fight for 16 Azar. So the regime isn't worried? Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati used Friday Prayers in Tehran to warn that some people will try and take over National Students Day (7 December) to "satisfy the United States". He added to those who have "betrayed Islam and the revolution, "Criminals will see your work."

Perhaps Jannati should have taken a tip from Tehran Revolution Guard Commander Ali Fazli who played down the prospect of any trouble on 16 Azar, which is a "flower of a day" to be presented as thanks to Iranian students.

1010 GMT: Tehran Politics. Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf steered an interesting course in a long video interview with Al Jazeera this week. He defended the "democracy" of the Presidential election but criticised both President Ahmadinejad and his opponents for post-election behaviour that fuelled conflict. Qalibaf say "no one was happy" with detentions but evaded placing any blame, saying "everyone is doing his or her best to resolve the issue and I hope no one will be left in prison".

Qalibaf also played down reports of the Revolutionary Guard's expanding influence in the Iranian economy, while saying that Iran's Article 44 governing privatisation must be respected.

1000 GMT: The Green Brief is Back. Josh Shahryar has resumed his updates on the Iran situation, from protests to political developments.

0800 GMT: It is the weekend in Iran, providing an opportunity to catch up on news and to take a breath before the escalation of events leading up to the demonstrations of 16 Azar on Monday. We've posted a special analysis, "Iran's Critical Moment: Three Days to Go".

Included in that piece is the latest manoeuvre from Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani to challenge the authority of and around President Ahmadinejad, albeit without naming his rival, “Creating tension in the country is easy but (fostering) unity is not that simple. Damaging reputation is easy but respecting others’ dignity is important. We should not slander others in order to solidify ourselves.”

Meanwhile, Pedestrian has a short, powerful blog on the protest and uncertain fate of Mohammad Younes Rashidi, a student at Amir Kabir University (formerly Tehran Polytechnic). During a visit by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he held up a sign, “Polytechnic is not your place, you Fascist President.”

Rashidi was expelled and is now reported to be in custody in his native city of Mazandaran.

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2115 GMT: Hacking the State Media. HomyLafayette has the story of today's cyber-attack on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting:

At least a dozen web sites connected to the Islamic regime's radio and television broadcasters were hacked early this morning in an orchestrated operation. The attacked web sites include Radio Javan, Radio Payam, Radio Varzesh, Radio Tehran, Radio Qoran, the literary section of the state radio-television's web site, and the Jomeh Irani (NB Iranian Friday) program.

The hackers, calling themselves Y! Underground, substituted the homepages of the attacked web sites with the above image. The Farsi text reads, 'We will stand until the end.' The title of the pages became 'Defaced by Y! Underground.' Most of the web sites were quickly closed down by their technical staff....

Astonishingly, the literary section of IRIB's web site continues to show the image placed on it by the hackers.

2100 GMT: Ahh, This is Why Mahmoud's Upset. Full credit to Reuters for getting the possible story behind the Ahmadinejad warning to Russia tonight (see 2040 GMT). A "senior Russian diplomatic source" has said, "If there is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside."

This appears to be a continued Russian balancing act rather than a shift behind US-led sanctions. "Consensus" may mean that Russia will accept the measures only if China also is willing. And the source cautioned that economic punishment was a longer-term prospect: "We will be thinking about sanctions but this is not an issue of the next few hours or weeks. We would rather have Iran cooperating more openly and consistently with the IAEA and showing clear steps to lift concerns -- which are gaining greater foundation -- than introducing sanctions against Iran."

2040 GMT: More on Ahmadinejad's Defiance. If nothing else, these lines from the President's televised interview are attention-grabbing: ""[Western countries] need us more than we need them. It is psychological warfare and isolating Iran is impossible. Any finger which is about to pull the trigger will be cut off."

More significant may be Ahmadinejad's warning to Moscow to come back into line --- no sanctions, renewed co-operation --- with Tehran, as he criticised the Russian vote on the IAEA resolution criticising Iran's nuclear programme: "Russia made a mistake. It does not have an accurate analysis of today's world situation."

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1940 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. After a 24-hour postponement, the President appeared on national television this evening. He offered, in the words of one viewer, "a geography lesson" for his tour of Latin America, comparing Iran favourably to its partners in Venezuela and Brazil.

Then, in the passage that Western media will pick up, Ahmadinejad declared, "Iran's nuclear issue has been resolved....We will hold no talks (with major powers) over this issue. There is no need for talks." He said that Tehran might allow inspectors to some sites or to none at all.

1715 GMT: And Today's Propaganda Warning. Islamic Republic News Agency, besides waving a finger at Hashemi Rafsanjani (1700 GMT) also gives a threatening push to Mir Hossein Mousavi. IRNA uses an interview with a Hojatoleslam to warn Mousavi that, if he keeps helping the enemies of Islam, he might suffer the fate of Abolhassan, Banisadr, the first President of the Islamic Republic who is now in exile in France.

1700 GMT: The Battle over Rafsanjani. Despite the explicit warning of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to back off, member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani has maintained his assault on the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, declaring that Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi is still the subject of a criminal investigation.

1645 GMT: It's not only EA readers who have debating which way forward for the Iranian opposition. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has replied to four questions about the Green movement.

1630 GMT: The Prison Doctor's Death. A twist in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the doctor at Kahrizak Prison who died in November. After claims by authorities that Pouranjdarjan committed suicide or was the victim of a heart attack, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi now says that the doctor died of poisoning. Only two weeks ago Doulatabadi's office said Pourandarjan had not been poisoned.

1335 GMT: The Potential Significance of the British Sailor Story. Mr Smith cuts through the stories (see 1155 GMT) to get to the possible importance of the detention of the five British sailors:

As I suspected, the sailors were indeed taken by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. Guess they want to boast their prowess in the Persian Gulf and warn about they will do inside or outside Iranian territorial waters in case of nuclear strike or even tougher sanctions.

That may be only the start of the matter, however. The IRGC could also use this case to flex their muscle against internal challengers. Conversely, other key figures, including President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader, may have to consider their manoeuvres versus the Revolutionary Guard.

Which is not dissimilar to the "British sailor" incident of two years ago, when 15 of Her Majesty's finest ---military in this case --- were detained. That ended, of course, with the release of the 15, an accomplishment for which Ahmadinejad took credit (although Ali Larijani was a central figure in the negotiations).

Two years on, and in a very different political context, will the IRGC again step back?

1145 GMT: Another Distraction. Looks like the international press will also be mesmerised by the story of the five British (civilian) sailors who have been detained after straying into Iranian waters. The standard line taken by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, chief of staff to President Ahmadinejad, "The judiciary will decide about the five ... naturally our measures will be hard and serious if we find out they had evil intentions," is racing across "Western" newspapers as an ominous sign.

The distraction extends to some rather fatuous speculation, as in this from The Guardian of London, "If the sailors arrested in the Persian Gulf are being punished for being British, Tehran's fear of the BBC could be a factor".

1015 GMT: Playing Down The Bluff. Less than 48 hours after shaking its fist with the "10 enrichment plants" declaration, the Iranian Government is edging away. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said this morning that there's not much to see here: If we do not get guarantees (for the delivery of the fuel), naturally we will have plans to move towards self-sufficiency. This is nothing unusual. Officials of some countries have rushed into adopting stances which may be indicative of the fact that they are concerned or angry." (CNN, incidentally, misses the story completely, distorting a general Mehmanparast statement ---"We will not do away with our rights" --- into "Iranian Legal Threat over Nuclear Plans.")

Meanwhile, something for the US to think about if it wants to push confrontation: a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman drew the line against further sanctions, "We should properly resolve this issue through dialogue. All parties should step up diplomatic efforts."

0715 GMT: Better Late than Never. The Associated Press has caught up with the politics of Iran's "10 enrichment plants" declaration, headlining, "Iran Nuke Plans Largely Bluster, Experts Say".

0710 GMT: Iran Contest of the Day. If the Supreme Leader's life was commemorated by Hollywood (see 0655 GMT), what would the title be?

0655 GMT: International news will be dominated today by President Obama's speech on US policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indeed, it will be interesting to see if there is a breathing space for the Administration on its next steps towards Iran, as everyone in Washington --- including Congressmen and activists pressing for a cut-off of  talks and tougher sanctions --- switch their attention to the Af-Pak political and military corridor.

Which, of course, does not mean that life stops in Iran. Amidst the debate about the state of the Green Movement and its goals, the plans for the demonstrations on 16 Azar are taking shape. Revised routes have now been posted. Here, for example, are the paths of protests in Tehran:

1. Azadi Square - Revolution Square - Tehran University


2. Hafte-Tir Square - St., Karim Khan - Asr Square - Keshavarz Blvd - Street workers - Tehran University


3. Tehran University dormitory complex - North Kargar Ave - Tehran University


4. Amir Kabir University - Cross-Asr - Tehran University


5. Ferdowsi Square - Street Revolution - Tehran University.

There are notes of activities at universities, and you can even follow a second-by-second countdown clock.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader took on another enemy on Monday. He stared down "Hollywood" in a meeting with with artists and directors of the Iranian television series "Hazrat Yousuf," a story from the Koran. The challenge to "Western" film was another setpiece in Ayatollah Khamenei's campaign for cultural purity from the arts to the universities to the seminaries.