The Latest from Iran (12 December): Bubbling Under

2250 GMT: Apologies. Earlier, we erroneously posted a Reuters report that Mir Hossein Mousavi had called for a national strike if he is arrested. A case of moving too quickly on a tense night: the report is from 20 June.

2220 GMT: Bubbling Over? Back after an evening's break to find a swirl of rumours --- if this morning started with tensions bubbling under, the evening has brought the prospect of them bubbling over.

The furour over the alleged burning of Imam Khomeini's picture, stirred by pro-Government media, is now being read as a pretext for possible aggressive action against opposition leadership. Kalemeh, the website associated with Mir Hossein website, has posted this note:

WARNING: Beware that an event is unfolding!

Kaleme: Following the planned scenario for disgracing Imam Khomeini and accusing the Green movement and the students of this act, since yesterday official pro-Ahmadinejad media have started a heavy propaganda with a hidden agenda and based on the information available it seems that they are preparing for some harsher crack downs.

All supporters of the Green movement are strongly advised to be extremely vigilant and make sure to stay on top of the latest news.

Because of the extreme restrictions on informing people, Kaleme (Mousavi's official website) is advising other news media to warn their users about the necessity of being watchful!

You Are The Media !

The Kalemeh post has in turn prompted other sites such as Norooz to speculate that Mousavi's arrest may be imminent. We are monitoring the situation but must emphasize that, at this point, these reports are just rumours.

1650 GMT: The Back-and-Forth on the "Burning" of Khomeini. EA's Mr Smith, after consulting sources, checks in to work through the possibilities of the story:

Many remain convinced that the act was indeed really anti-regime. However, whether or not the burning of the photograph was genuine, the follow-up was predictable: Iranian TV trumpeted the footage as proof of the Green Wave's anti-revolutionary stance.

A veteran Iranian journalist has written, "It is not suspicious. It is opposition to the Islamic Republic. The people are clearly stating that they don't want to go back in time to the period when [Mousavi was] Prime Minister [in the 1980s]. Rather, they want to move forward, past the Islamic Republic. Mr. Mousavi, you should publicly state where you are positioned in all this."

This was a reply to to Mousavi's own reply to Jomhouri Eslami newspaper, in which he deftly distanced the Green movement from the burning and rather flimsily labelled the burning of Khomeini's poster as the work of agent provocateurs. Very interestingly, though, he omitted any reference to Khamenei's image, which you will recall was torn and burnt alongside Khomeini's in the YouTube footage. Mousavi's respect is only centred on the figure of the "Holy Imam", no mention of his successor whatsoever.

Iran Special: Kermit the Frog Re-Mixes “It’s Not Easy Being Green”
Iran: A Renewed Washington Love Affair With The Green Movement?
Iran’s Arrest of Majid Tavakoli: “Khamenei in Hejab/We Are All Majids”
Iran: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli “His 16 Azar Speech on Video”
Iran: “The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People”? (with Audio)
The Latest from Iran (11 December): Ripples and then Ruptures?

1530 GMT: Worst "Analysis" of the Day. Congratulations to Abbas Barzegar for his conclusion pulled down from the sky, "Revolution Halted in Iran".

To do the injustices of this piece suitable justice would require a separate entry. Let's just say that Barzegar extrapolates from a suitable premise --- that the political movements do not simply consist of 2President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei on one side versus Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Ayatollah Rafsanjani, and the entire Iranian nation on the other" --- to wandering and unsupported claims on the Green movement: "a dispersed core of intellectual and political elites with no clear agenda or ability to mobilise".

To put this caricature into perspective, let's just refer back to another Barzegar "analysis":

Ahmedinejad turned the election into a referendum on the very project of Iran's Islamic revolution. Their street chants yelled "Death to all those against the Supreme Leader" followed by traditional Shia rituals and elegies. It was no match for the high-spirited fun-loving youth of northern Tehran, [defeated as they] sang "Ahmedi-bye-bye, Ahmedi-bye-bye" or "ye hafte-do hafte, Mahmud hamum na-rafte" (One week, two weeks, Mahmoud hasn't taken a shower).

The date of the proclamation of that Ahmadinejad victory? 13 June.

1520 GMT: Sentences for Shiraz University Students. Nine have been handed down jail terms, ranging from six months (suspended) to six years, for participation in 13 Aban (4 November) protests.

1420 GMT: The Arrests of 16 Azar. A website has posted the names and status of 34 protesters arrested last Monday, and an Iranian activist has provided an English translation via Twitter.

1320 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Sane'i has added his denunciation of alleged regime disinformation with the burning of Imam Khomeini's picture:

When some reach a dead end, they don’t even spear Imam Khomeini’s dignity and take advantage of him for their own purpose. Oppressors set Imam Khomeini’s picture on fire [themselves], then claim that the students did that; while the students support Imam Khomeini and are in debt to him, and if they are protesting, it is based on Imam Khomeini’s saying, “The scale is the people’s vote."

1255 GMT: We Didn't Start the Fire (against Imam Khomeini). The reformist Islamic Association of Students of Tehran University has strongly condemned broadcasting of the “suspicious” footage of the tearing and burning of Imam Khomeini’s picture on state-run TV.

The students offered a religious analogy to condemn the regime's disinformation: they warned that the desecration of Imam Khomeini’s dignity to create new crisis in the society harks back to the enemies of Imam Ali, Shi’a Islam's first Imam, abuse of the dignity of Quran by holding the holy book up in the middle of war for their own benefit. As a result, a group of extremist and foolish individuals took the power over the people.

Officials of the Imam Khomeini Institute have also expressed their suspicions over state media's use of the alleged images.

1245 GMT: Today's Regime Attack. And it's Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami stepping up to the plate to take a swing at the opposition. Looks like he's hoping to hit the soft pitch that they're tearing down the system" out of the park: "What they are after is to have a thin layer remaining of the Islamic Republic."

Khatami is also building on this week's theme of the "burning" of the image of Imam Khomeini: state media is reporting that "hundreds" of theological students staged a rally in downtown Tehran to protest against the "insult", with similar events were also held in other Iranian cities.

1145 GMT: We've posted a new entry on Iranians leaving the country amidst the post-election conflict and possible Government measures against them.

0945 GMT: And Keeping the Door Open. Foreign Minister Mottaki added that Iran would be happy to attend another meeting with the "5+1" powers on uranium enrichment. He is doing so on the basis of the fuel "swap" idea, however, with the exchange of Iran's 3.5 percent uranium stock for a 20 percent enrichment supply taking place inside the country.

0925 GMT: Holding the Line. Speaking at a regional security conference in Bahrain, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki neither closed the door on nuclear negotiations nor offered concessions. He nodded towards the ongoing talks, "First I think we could just totally abandon the whole thing or we could propose something more moderate, a kind of middle way ... Iran has done that." At the same time, he emphasised that Iran wanted to ensure control of the process, "We need 10 to 15 nuclear plants to generate electricity in our country."

0915 GMT: Taking Iran's Money. In what may be the biggest seizure of Iranian assets abroad since the Islamic Revolution, it has emerged that more than $2 billion allegedly held on behalf of Tehran in Citigroup accounts was frozen last year in a secret order by a federal court in New York City.

While the case is not directly tied to the US Government's sanctions on Iran, the court action was supported by information provided by the US Treasury.

The frozen assets are in the center of a legal battle between Luxembourg's Clearstream Banking, the holder of the Citibank account, and the families of hundreds of U.S. Marines killed or injured in a 1983 attack on a Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.

0825 GMT: A quieter start (and later one, we needed the rest) to the day, after the intensity of Friday's speculation over the purported letter/tapes from military groups "standing with the opposition" and the growing opposition campaign linked to the regime's treatment of detained student leader Majid Tavakoli. The excitement and confusion even swept away the Government's threats against those within (Hashemi Rafsanjani) and those without (the opposition who supposedly burned the pictures of the Supreme Leader and Ayatollah Khomeini on 16 Azar).

Quieter, however, does not mean silent. The campaign sparked by Tavakoli, with the videos and pictures of "We Are All Majids, All in Hejab" has both mobilised protest in the run-up to Moharram and boosted the swing in international attention and support. The Guardian of London has picked up on the Facebook campaign. Even Fox News picked up the story on one of its blogs, and The New York Times has a follow-up today, with prominent US-based academic Hamid Dabashi joining the movement. The conclusion of the article brought a smile and a "Really? No kidding!": "Six months after the June 12 presidential election, the dispute over its outcome appears nowhere near at an end."

This morning the campaign continues. Josh Shahryar has posted "An Ode to Majid Tavakoli".

On the military front, I am afraid we have little so far to solve the mystery of whether the letter/audio from eight Iranian units is authentic. There is an outstanding debate amongst readers on our post yesterday, which raises possibilities but no resolutions so far. We'll keep watching; however, the most important issue for the moment may be whether people --- both those supporting the Government and those opposing it --- think the message is real. For if so, then the uncertainty caused is a victory in itself for the opposition.

Flight from Iran: A Regime Campaign Against Those Outside the Country?

A series of readers have recommended this article, written by Steve Stecklow and Farnaz Fassihi in The Wall Street Journal, to us. We welcome any further information on the claims of the scale of the exodus and of Government intimidation of Iranian expatriates and refugees:

Thousands Flee Iran as Noose Tightens

NEVSEHIR, Turkey -- Sadegh Shojai fled Iran after government agents raided his Tehran apartment, seizing his computer and 700 copies of a book he published on staging revolutions.

Now, he and his wife spend their days in this isolated Turkish town in a cramped, coal-heated apartment that lacks a proper toilet. But Mr. Shojai, 28 years old, continues to churn out articles on antigovernment Web sites about Iranian political prisoners, and helps to link students in Tehran with fellow students in Europe.

The Latest from Iran (12 December): Bubbling Under

"I feel very guilty that I have abandoned my friends and countrymen, so I make up for it by burying myself in activism here," he says.

He's part of a small but spreading refugee exodus of businesspeople, dissidents, college students, journalists, athletes and other elite Iranians that is transforming the global face of Iran's resistance movement.

Because of new technology and the Internet, prominent figures of the opposition can be more effective outside of Iran and do things they wouldn't be able to do there," says Hamid Dabashi, a professor of Iranian studies at Columbia University. People staying behind "are ridiculed and sidelined," or thrown in jail.

The United Nations says more than 4,200 Iranians world-wide have sought refugee status since Iran's controversial June presidential vote and bloody street violence. This provincial Turkish town -- near the famed carved-rock dwellings of Cappadocia that harbored outcasts in millennia past -- is home to 543 Iranians seeking asylum.

After sometimes spending weeks hiding in and hopping between safe houses, Iranians have turned up in countries as far away as Australia, Canada and Sweden. They typically seek refugee status.

"What good can a lawyer do in Iran if she is in jail?" says Nikahang Kousar, an Iranian political cartoonist in Toronto who formed an "underground railroad" of sorts to advise and assist other Iranians trying to leave Iran.

A spokesman with Iran's U.N. mission in New York declined to comment on the refugees or their claims of repression or violence.

Iran's refugee exodus is exacerbating a brain drain that has stunted the country's development for years. Mr. Dabashi, the Columbia professor, says he has fielded hundreds of inquiries from students in Iran wanting to study overseas -- more than 20 times the rate of previous years. "It's mind-boggling how many extremely accomplished young people are trying to come abroad," he says.

Not all defectors are necessarily politically active. Two athletes from the national wrestling and karate teams, a well-known anchor on state television and a young film director have applied for political asylum in Europe in recent months.

The most popular destination remains neighboring Turkey, which shares a long border with Iran. Turkey is one of the few countries that doesn't require Iranians to obtain a visa in advance, making it a relatively easy escape.

But not everyone can openly cross the border. About 20 individuals (mostly journalists) have escaped Iran illegally since June because they had been jailed or been blocked from leaving, according to Omid Memarian, a human-rights activist in San Francisco who is another participant in the loose-knit global underground railroad.

Hanif Mazroui, the son of a reformist Iranian politician, says he snuck across the border, leaving behind a wife and newborn baby he hasn't met. Today Mr. Mazroui is in Belgium where he is working as a journalist for reformist Web sites.

No matter the route, many Iranians arrive abroad carrying pictures or videos of themselves participating in post-election demonstrations in Tehran. Some also continue their antigovernment activities by blogging or distributing photos, videos, articles and news to Iranians inside and outside the country.

Relations between Turkey and Iran have warmed in recent years. Just last month, the two sides announced a trade agreement, including construction of new power plants and establishment of a free-trade zone on the border. Turkey also relies on Iran as a major supplier of natural gas.

Turkey also opposes U.S.-backed sanctions on Iran over Tehran's nuclear program. Just this past Monday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with President Barack Obama at the White House. "We believe that the role of Iran can only be changed through diplomacy," Mr. Erdogan said afterward.

U.S. officials view Turkey as a central player in forging an international consensus on pressuring Iran, due to Ankara's expanding economic and diplomatic ties to Tehran and Mr. Erdogan's considerable influence across the Middle East. The Obama administration also sees Turkey as a crucial ally in addressing a range of regional security issues, including Iraq and Afghanistan.

A State Department official says the U.S. is prepared to accept more Iranian refugees provided the U.N.'s refugee agency makes the referrals. The official said there is a refugee quota of about 35,000 this year for the Near East and South Asia, so "there's enough wiggle room that we could increase the number of people we take out of Turkey."

Turkey is one of the world's only countries that bans refugees from taking up permanent residence within its own borders. The U.N. has found no evidence that Turkey is treating Iranian political refugees any differently than other refugees.

Still, there is fear among Iranian refugees in Turkey of being caught or harassed by Iranian intelligence agents. Many say they are afraid to call their families back home, believing the phone lines in Iran are tapped and that relatives there will face reprisal.

Ibrahim Vurgun, project coordinator for a Turkish nonprofit that is under contract with the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, or UNHCR, to assist refugees, says Iranian intelligence operatives have infiltrated the ranks of asylum seekers.

"It's very easy to get into Turkey, and you can't differentiate between an Iranian intelligence agent and a real refugee," he says.

That's where Mr. Shojai, the Iranian publisher of revolutionary materials, lives with his wife, Fateme Faneian, a 25-year-old blogger who worked at an opposition Web site in Iran before the government shut it down.

They arrived in Turkey in August after hiding in Iran for more than a month while participating in demonstrations. She says that during one protest in Iran, police kicked her in the stomach, causing her to have a miscarriage.

It's their first time outside Iran. They arrived by train with four suitcases of belongings, including several bags of rice.

Mr. Shojai says he now spends eight to 10 hours a day online, acting as an intermediary for a large network of student activists within Iran to get updates on arrests, interrogations and jailings back home. He then distributes what he learns globally on Facebook, Twitter and Balatarin, an Iranian news and social-networking site.

Because of Turkey's strict rules for refugees, Iranians can find themselves in a bureaucratic limbo that can last for years.

Once here, Iranians must wait for the U.N. to approve their status as refugees, which can take several months. If approved, they then next wait for assignment to another country (typically the U.S., Canada or Australia), which can take two years because of immigration quotas. If they're rejected as refugees, they can appeal, extending the process.

"Time can be the best torturer," says Kiumars Kamalinia, an Iranian Christian living in Nevsehir who says he was forced to flee Iran two years ago because of evangelical activities. He says the U.N. recognized him as a refugee a year ago but he's still awaiting resettlement.

An official with Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who declined to be named, said the refugee issue "is very complex and should be addressed by the international community." Noting that 67,000 people have sought refuge in Turkey since 1995 -- nearly half of them from Iran -- the official said Turkey wants to avoid a "mass influx" of additional refugees.

The 1,000 or so Iranians who have arrived in Turkey since the June elections joined more than 3,000 others already waiting to be declared refugees or to be resettled. They include Christians and members of the Bahai faith who say they fled to escape religious persecution. There also is a sizable community of gay and lesbian Iranians. Homosexuality is punishable by death in Iran.

UNHCR officials say the number of refugees in Turkey has increased in recent years, largely because of an influx of Iraqis. Waiting periods for resettlement have also grown.

Last year, there were only about 5,000 placements for 18,000 refugees. The U.S. accepted 1,099 Iranians from Turkey. An additional 486 went to six other countries.

While refugees wait, Turkey charges them the same residential-permit fees as any foreigner, about $200 per adult and $100 per child, every six months. The fees have stirred up resentment, since Turkey also prohibits refugees from finding legal employment if Turkish citizens are qualified to do the job. Many work illegal, $10-a-day jobs like housepainting.

Hossein Salman Zadeh, an Iranian news photographer who fled to Turkey in September to avoid arrest for taking pictures of demonstrations, says he was fined $50 for failing to pay the residential-permit fees on time, even though the office that collects the money was closed for a holiday.

"The fee itself is a serious burden, every six months having to come up with that money in a country where you cannot work legally," says Brenda Goddard, a refugee-status determination officer at UNHCR in Ankara.

The Turkish foreign-ministry official said the government is considering changes in the permit fees to benefit the refugees.

However, Turkish unemployment is fairly high at around 11%, and because of that, it's "not really an option to allow these applicants to work in Turkey," another government official said. The official added that Turkey is worried that if it allowed refugees to remain, the country would soon become "a huge warehouse for asylum seekers from European Union countries."