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Entries in Iran Elections 2009 (111)

Tuesday
Dec152009

Iran: A Beginner's Guide to Moharram

MOHARRAM2EA correspodent Mr Azadi offers an introduction to EA readers (and to me, as I confused Moharram and Ashura in a post I wrote last week) of the religious month of Moharram, which is likely to be marked by opposition protests:

Moharram and the message of Karbala

One of the significant events for Shia Islam is the first month of the Islamic calendar, Moharram, with its meanings and rituals. It was on the 10th day of Moharram, known as Ashura, that Hussain, the third Imam of Shiites, was killed at Karbala, now located in Iraq.

The Latest from Iran (15 December): The Path to Moharram



Historical Background

The killing of Hussain at Karbala, which took place in Moharram in the year 61 in the Islamic calendar (680 AD), is one of the seminal events in the development of Shi'a Islam.

Hussain had refused an alliance with Yazid, the caliph, and declared that Yazid’s administration and government were not legitimate because they were not following the Prophet Mohammad’s manner and path. As Hussain was the only living grandson of the Prophet, his refusal to pledge allegiance could jeopardize Yazid’s position. The caliph put an ultimatum to Hussain: acceptance of his supremacy or death.

Hussain had announced that he had no intention of starting a war, but Yazid left him with no choice, Hussain, his family, and his companions met more than 5000 troops of Yazid’s army in Karbala. Hussain’s 72 companions and his family were all slain.

Hussainian Ideology

Hussain's attitude and his martyrdom have provided an ideological framework for liberating movements which identify with the event of Karbala as a stand against injustice. This ideological framework includes refusal to accept an illegitimate government, disclosing injustice, and protesting against it. It does not matter how few are in a protesting movement, for it must rise against tyranny and injustice, even if there is no immediate result.

Shiites believe that as long as there is injustice in the world, Hussain’s path is alive and must be followed: “Every day is Ashura, and every land is Karbala.” clearly declares this Hussainian ideology.

Reviving Hussain

During its history, Shiism has tried to revive the ideology and the message of Karbala in various ways, most importantly through the mourning ritual. Remembrance of Hussain, his words and message, his view and ideology, his death, and the events surrounding that death are the main parts of these rituals, which both speculative and emotional aspects.

During Moharram, people gathering in mosques or other places to listen to clergy and lecturers explain the message of Karbala and Hussain’s actions and death. In these holy ceremonies, Shiites also use symbols for the main aspects of Karbala. Flags are in three colors: red (for blood and dying for beliefs), green (for the Prophet’s family), and black (for sadness and mourning).

Moharram and Iran’s Islamic Revolution

Iran's Islamic Revolution of 1979 was based on Hussainian ideology. Imam Khomeini declared that Moharram had kept the movement alive, identifying it with the rise against the tyranny and injustice of the Shah, the 20th-century Yazid. Clergy and speakers turned Muharram from a month of mourning into a political platform for reform of the Iranian system. Iranian worshipers, adorned in black and singing of sadness, demonstrated against the Shah throughout the month, especially on the 9th and 10th days, Tasua and Ashura.

The meanings of Muharram and Ashura were reinforced during the "imposed war" (1980-88) with Iraq. In Hussainian ideology, sacrificing a life for your beliefs was more valuable than living under tyranny. Iranians identified their martyrs with the martyrs of Karbala in their ceremonies and their literature.

Muharram and Green Movement

Basing on Hussain’s goal, “reforming the Islamic society and re-establishing it with justice and Islamic values”, Iran's Green Movement draws upon Hussainian ideology to achieve its aims. Thus Muharram provides the movement with the great opportunity to rejuvenate itself through the symbol and ideas of Karbala.

The first message? Do not stay quiet, no matter how many (or few) you are or how strong your opponents may be. The second lesson? There may not be an immediate result, but the true victory is the raising of voices against injustice, a stand that will forever remain within history.
Tuesday
Dec152009

Iran: US State Department Pushes for "Proper" Sanctions in 2010

IRAN FLAG TORNJosh Rogin of The Cable of Foreign Policy magazine offers a revelation about the efforts of the Obama Administration, or at least the State Department, to get control of the Congressional push for sanctions:

The State Department sent a letter to Congress Friday...asking lawmakers to hold off on an Iran sanctions bill until the New Year. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg wrote:
We are entering a critical period of intense diplomacy to impose significant international pressure on Iran. This requires that we keep the focus on Iran At this juncture, I am concerned that this legislation, in its current form, might weaken rather than strengthen international unity and support for our efforts.

In addition to the timing, we have serious substantive concerns, including the lack of flexibility, inefficient monetary thresholds and penalty levels, and blacklisting that could cause unintended foreign policy consequences.

The Latest from Iran (15 December): The Path to Moharram



Rogin notes, from a source, that the issue is not whether there should be sanctions but what form they should take. In particular, the Obama Administration is walking a tightrope --- in trying to get international support --- between getting acceptance of restrictions while not punishing those who trade with Iran too much: "One issue, the source said, is whether the bill's sanctions on third-party countries who are involved in selling refined petroleum products to Iran could be exempted if they are part of efforts to combat Iran's nuclear ambitions."

The battlefront is likely to be in the Senate, as the lower house of the US Congress is likely to pass a parallel bill, focused on petroleum sanctions, next week.
Monday
Dec142009

Today in EA (14 December)

Iran: In addition to the latest developments, Scott Lucas has EA's Monday analysis of the weekend's events and an interview in the Italian newspaper La Stampa . We've got the first videos from today's university protests, and there's new footage from the 16 Azar protests which only surfaced over the weekend. We have a winner in our first EA caption competition - well done bigwinnman!

As always, you can keep up to date with news as we get it in our live weblog.

Israel: The Netanyahu Cabinet gives legitimacy to the settlements in the West Bank by approving them in the National Priorities Map.
Monday
Dec142009

Latest Iran Video: And Your University Protests Today....

Shahrood University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW1QgHwTJm4[/youtube]

Latest Iran Video: Challenging the Regime’s Forces on 16 Azar (7 December)
Latest Videos from Iran’s Universities (13 December)
The Latest from Iran (14 December): Taking Stock

Chamran Hall, Tehran University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQvWi9jn_cg[/youtube]

Tehran University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20zsdRLn0v8[/youtube]

Sharif University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpxai9CfY0M[/youtube]

Khaje Nasir University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpQev96QUo0[/youtube]

Semnan University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zdnN-mZo3M[/youtube]

Monday
Dec142009

The Latest from Iran (14 December): Taking Stock

IRAN GREEN1745 GMT: Swinging Wildly. A couple of punches from regime supporters this afternoon. The Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guard, told Presidential staff that the Khomeini Archive, run by the late Imam's family, is "a base for monafeghin (hypocrites)". The term "monafeghin" is commonly used to refer to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, the group which has tried to overthrow the Islamic Republic since 1979, often through violence.

And Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi took aim at Hashemi Rafsanjani. Yazdi claimed that, when he was head of Iran's judiciary, Rafsanjani asked him to cover up a criminal case against the former President's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi. Yazdi also questioned the intellectual credentials of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1604 GMT: Confirming the Sentence. We had learned days ago that economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz had been sentenced to nine years in prison. The break-down of the sentence has been released: five years for acts against national security by holding meetings with foreign embassy officials, one year for participating in the protest march of 15 June; two years (and 74 lashes) for insulting officials, one year for propagandizing against the Establishment in his economic analyses over the last eight years.

1558 GMT: Pushing the Issue. For the first time in months, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have requested a permit for a march from the Ministry of Interior.

NEW Latest Iran Video: And Your University Protests Today…. (14 December)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Challenging the Regime’s Forces on 16 Azar (7 December)
NEW Iran: Scott Lucas in La Stampa on “Khamenei’s Final Warning”

NEW Iran: “Arrests” and the Regime’s Sword of Damocles
Iran Analysis: Sifting the Propaganda – Government About to Arrest Opposition Leaders?
Latest Videos from Iran’s Universities (13 December)

The Latest from Iran (13 December): Bubbling Over?

1555 GMT: Sanctions? Oops! "A senior official says that a meeting by five world powers on Iran's nuclear program has been canceled due to China's opposition.

The U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany had planned to meet Friday. The official from one of the five world powers demanded anonymity Monday because his information was confidential.

The meeting was to be in Brussels or on the sidelines of the Copenhagen summit." (hat-tip to EA reader)

1510 GMT: Josh Shahryar's latest Green Brief, covering Sunday's events, is now out, covering protests at up to nine Iranian universities, the threat of arrests, and the Supreme Leader's speech, amongst other events.

1500 GMT: There's Mahmoud! The President has met our concerns about his absence (0905 and 0725 GMT) from the domestic crisis with this comment, "The enemies of the Iranian nation are now frustrated and want to take revenge through insulting the country's sanctities....The enemies should fear the typhoon of the Iranian people's anger." Ahmadinejad accused the opposition of being "against the nation" and "agents of foreigners".

1215 GMT: Your New Top Story (if You're Not in Iran). Looks like the "Western" media will surge this morning with a single sentence from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki at a news conference, passed on by the Associated Press via The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times: the three US hikers detained this summer in Iran had "suspicious aims" and will go on trial. CBS News is now headlining, and CNN now "confirms" (cracking journalism since the press conference was hours ago).

1050 GMT: The Regime's Scramble. A reader reminds us that the Peyke Iran "exclusive" (0915 GMT), on the Armed Forces self-confessed failing to contain the opposition, is from a memorandum from September after the Qods Days protests. The question that prompts is whether, again in light of our analysis this morning, the Armed Forces would revise that assessment three months later.

1040 GMT: The Regime Persists. I guess the Government can't just step away from its "burning Khomeini" game, despite all the complications it has caused. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has claimed that several people have been arrested over the incident.

1030 GMT: Don't Give Them an Excuse. Mir Hossein Mousavi has moved to pre-empt any regime pretext for a crackdown, such as the alleging burning of Khomeini's image, as well as to contain any notion of a "radical" opposition: "From now on all protests and demands should be pursued peacefully and lawfully. Nobody among us should make a pretext for those who are against people."

Mousavi then renewed the "peaceful" challenge:

People have a right to question, they should not be confronted violently....If people's questions were answered and they were not confronted violently we would not see some controversial moves today. People want an end of the security-obsessed atmosphere as in such an atmosphere radicalism grows.

0915 GMT: Analysis Confirmed, Regime Scrambling To Contain Opposition? An EA reader, commenting on our morning analysis about the weekend's threat of arrests, points out a Peyke Iran story: the article claims to have an admission from Iran's Armed Forces that it has failed to contain the Green Movement.

The report from the General Staff allegedly evaluates that the Green Movement has not been fostered by foreign intervention and that it is not following a specific political agenda but is a social and cultural movement. The officers say that, despite isolating the movement's leaders (Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami), the opposition has persisted. Efforts to out-number and overwhelm the demonstrators through counter-protests of Government workers have been hindered by the apathy of the workers or, in some cases, their refusal to heed the call.

An interesting note: the General Staff evaluates that women have been the chief instigators of the protests.

0905 GMT: The Regime Keeps On Spinning. Press TV puts out a boiler-plate story under a dramatic headline, "Figures slam sacrilege of Imam Khomeini portrait". We reported almost all of the comments in yesterday's updates but there is one interesting addition today, in light of our question (0725 GMT), "Where's Mahmoud?".  "Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on Tuesday described the incident as an 'objectionable' move 'that he wished he had never witnessed'."

Hmm, that's six days ago, which is about six years on the calendar of Iranian political developments --- what's Mahmoud been doing since then?

0725 GMT: After a weekend of tension which did not culminate in 1) high-profile arrests or 2) a resolution of the mysterious letter/audio purportedly from Iranian army units ready to "stand with the people" if violence continues but did point to the persistence of protest on university campuses, it is a morning to pause and assess. We have a special analysis on the meaning of the regime's threat, capped by the Supreme Leader's speech yesterday, to vanquish the opposition once and for all.

There's also an important related issue for us to consider before an analysis tomorrow: Where's Mahmoud? It's notable that, in all the public manoeuvres of the last few days, President Ahmadinejad has been off to the side, meeting foreign delegations and waving his fist on the nuclear issue but saying little about the internal situation. Is he being politically sensible in standing back from the front line or has he been put to the side by others, i.e., the Supreme Leader, returning to the shadows that he occupied in the early weeks of this crisis?

Much of this is beyond the "Western" media. The New York Times, for example, has a good article by Michael Slackman this morning on the "burning" of the image of Imam Khomenei. Unfortunately, it's a piece already overtaken by events --- Slackman never notes the threat of arrests of opposition leaders and thus the wider significance of Ayatollah Khamenei's Sunday address.

CNN is just catching up with the "We Are All Majids/All in Hejab" protest over the detention of Majid Tavakoli.  The Times of London, meanwhile, is going off on one of its regular sensational strolls in the nuclear woods, claiming from mysterious (and unnamed) sources and buttressing the claim with Israeli comment, "Secret document exposes Iran’s nuclear trigger".