The Latest from Iran (6 December): Tension Rises

2000 GMT: Widespread reports of loud "Allahu Akhbar" rooftop chants tonight. We've posted two videos.

1800 GMT: A day dominated by statements. We've posted an abridged English version of the Mousavi statement on 16 Azar and the student movement.

Iran Opinion: “Why The Green Movement Will Prevail”
NEW Latest Iran Videos: The Eve of 16 Azar “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (6 December)
NEW Iran Document: Mousavi Statement on 16 Azar and the Student Movement (6 December)
NEW Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech to Students (6 December)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on The Response to Extremism
Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)
Iran’s Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go
The Latest from Iran (5 November): Fun with the Regime

1505 GMT: We've just learned that Kalemeh has posted the 16th statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi, issued for 16 Azar. We'll look for an English summary.

1500 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has also made a statement for the commemoration of Eid al-Ghadir, the confirmation of Imam Ali’s succession to the Prophet Mohammad. Visiting political figures and family members of detainees, declared, "Today more than anytime we need to return to [Imam Ali's] model and policy because that path wants Justice, Freedom and Equality for all....A society or a government will survive with blasphemy but will not survive with oppression.”

1410 GMT: Raf's Back? Chatter continues about Hashemi Rafsanjani's Sunday speech. Khabar Online focuses on the former President's defense of his son, Mehdi Hashemi: Rafsanjani said that Hashemi had gone to Britain to pursue a Ph.D., not to evade criminal charges which are unfounded.

We've got an English translation of parts of the speech. Another version has been posted by activist MikVerbrugge.

1300 GMT: Supreme Leader Gives British a Boost. Further to Ayatollah Khamenei's speech (see 1130 GMT), this comes in from the Supreme Leader's office via Twitter, "Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized that USA is at the top of Iranian nation's enemies pyramid and Britain is their most vicious one."

So for all my British friends who fret about loss of power, declining Empire, and being just another sort-of-European country, cheer up....you're still vicious!

1130 GMT: It's All Because of the Foreigners. The Supreme Leader has told an audience of "thousands" that the Islamic Republic has rebuffed the efforts of foreign nations (US, Britain, Israel, etc.) to create differences over policy with their threat of sanctions. No reference, as far as I can see, to the internal challenge to the "unity" of the Iranian nation.

1125 GMT: Green Brief 75, covering the last 24 hours in Iran, is now out.

1120 GMT: Rafs' Move for 16 Azar. This may shake up a quiet morning: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has emerged to position himself between regime and protesters.

Rafsanjani told students in Mashhad, "The situation in the country is such that constructive criticism is not accepted," and pressed his call for unity and adherence to the law to "create a climate of freedom which will convince the majority of people and erase ambiguities".

The former President's message for tomorrow? "Those who demonstrate or protest must express themselves through legal means. Leaders must also respect the law. There have always been extremist factions and excessive attitudes on both sides... but several problems will be solved if we adopt the path of moderation."

0735 GMT: The Washington Post also has an article today on divisions within the regime, and it benefits --- in comparison to the piece in The Washington Times --- because Thomas Erdbrink is in Tehran. Drawing on public statements by analysts and former MPs, he focuses on the call of conservatives/principlists to end infighting, including the attacks on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0715 GMT: This time tomorrow the marchers --- how many? --- will be gathering in Tehran and other cities for the demonstrations on National Students Day, 16 Azar. News has been restricted for almost 24 hours because of the Government clamp-down on the Internet but we are still getting information on the preparations, accompanied by nervousness and excitement.

And the Government clamp-down cannot hide the nerves and tensions within its own ranks. No clearer sign of this than the order from the Culture Ministry, "All permits issued for foreign media to cover news in Tehran have been revoked from December 7 to December 9."

Away from the marches, the rumbling over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's economic plans continues. The President has threatened to withdraw his subsidy reform proposals because they were modified by the Parliament, but MPs are resisting, saying it is too late to withdraw the plan.

Barbara Slavin has an interesting approach to the situation in The Washington Times. Relying on US-based experts, she declares "the embattled regime fears showing weakness in the face of persistent domestic political opposition and rising foreign pressure.... Ayatollah Khamenei may instead now be subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards and other paramilitary forces that keep his government afloat."

The most interesting passage in the piece is an attempt by a "senior Administration official" to claim some credit for the internal difficulties: "The Obama strategy has generated a real debate in Iran over nuclear issues," with "a crack in the core" of the regime.

The most interesting oversight in the article? With its obsession with the nuclear issue, it offers only sentence to the imminent sign of dissent, "New protests are expected Monday on Iranian campuses to mark 'National Student Day,' previously a regime-backed event." Somehow I don't think the demonstrations will be just on campuses on Monday.

16 Azar is 1 day away.

Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech to Students (6 December)

An EA reader kindly offers us this summary of the speech, from the website Rah-e-Sabz:

I am not quiet but we are in a situation that discussions are not tolerated….My positions are the same as the ones I mentioned in the Friday Prayer which are based on the teachings of the Quran: doubts about the election should be resolved, political prisoners should be released , the families of the victims of the post-election violence should be comforted and the restrictions on media and criticising the government and the current situation should be lifted. However some conservative hardliners don’t accept these [positions], and think that people’s votes are only for formality....

If people of Iran want us, we [can] stay and govern if not we [should] go....

The Latest from Iran (6 December): Tension Rises

The government has money and resources so it can gather people in the streets, but on the other side (Green Movement) there are groups of professors, students, workers and industry managers and it was not right that they put the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards in front of people. I am not happy with the current situation of the country and it is not right to alienate the youth and intellectuals from the establishment....

[Quoting the Prophet Mohammad's advice to Imam Ali, Shia’s first Imam] "You have the right to govern from God BUT if people did not accept you, don’t impose yourself on people"....Imam Khomeini always said that if people support us then we can act.

Some believe that there was fraud in the election and I said that I have concerns about the fraud, but then they criticised me that why did you even mention such a thing….I am saying that these doubts and concerns should be resolved….We have law for everything, although some of these laws should be corrected, but if everyone accepts these rules are obeyed, then many problems could be solved....Censorship in our society won’t be the answer and if we have free media and people are convinced, then they won’t take [their protest] to the streets…

One cannot trick a society that has 3-4 million students….My suggestion was that there should be an opportunity that both sides could come and debate the issues and then people can judge for themselves.

Iran Opinion: "Why The Green Movement Will Prevail"

From Iran News Now:

Sadness to me is the happiest time
When a shining city rises form the ruins of my drunken mind
Those times when I’m silent and still as the earth,
The thunder of my roar is heard across the universe. (Rumi)

It has now been almost six months since those fateful days in June when the people of Iran shattered the false image that the government of Iran had cast of them: that stark image of women clad head-to-toe in black chadors, and bearded zealous men punching their fists into the air chanting slogans of death to the world and holding Americans hostage.

Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)
Iran’s Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go
The Latest from Iran (6 December): Tension Rises

Six months ago, the blatant rigging of the presidential election in Iran in the favor of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, galvanized the people, after thirty years of forced, fear-induced slumber, to stand up for themselves and assert their will. The world saw a new image of Iran, that of vibrant, intelligent, modern and dignified people, young and old, hand-in-hand, peacefully asserting themselves.

Millions of people bravely entered the streets and in a peaceful, dignified manner they asked, “Where is my vote?” And they received an answer in the form of brutal, barbaric, hate-filled violence. The so-called “supreme leader”, Khamenei, basically said that if the people dared question the results of the election again via street protests, they would pay a heavy price. In his Friday prayer speech on June 19, Khamenei basically intoned that anyone who questioned the results of the election would be considered an enemy and dealt with accordingly. In the lingo of the Islamic Republic, this is akin to a mafia don threatening to kill anyone who questions him and it serves as a green light...that it’s okay to violently crack down on the people.

But the people ignored him and continued their protests. Again and again, they have demonstrated their resistance to tyranny in a way that every human being who values freedom and human dignity can be proud of. And we have repeatedly seen the regime respond with sickening disregard for the most basic human rights....

We all saw the brutal murder of Neda Agha Soltan, when she was shot in the chest by a Basij militiaman. The look in her eyes as she passed is seared into our collective memories. We will never forget it.

So many others have been beaten, tortured, raped, and even killed. And their families have been threatened with detention and violence if they voice any complaint, or if they mourn publicly.

Every single Iranian has felt the talons of this regime tearing into their being in one way or another. Of course, the regime has its supporters and proponents....But the vast majority of Iranians know that they are being held hostage by this regime. The majority of Iranians know that the regime does not represent Iranian interests. The majority of Iranians feel their country and culture are on the brink of destruction by a group of zealous islamists and their mercenaries who don’t even want to acknowledge that Iran has centuries of proud history before Islam.

Let’s be clear about something right here and right now: the movement that is called the Green Movement in Iran, is the Iranian people! The Green Movement belongs to all Iranians who stand for fundamental human rights and dignity. The Green Movement, at is core, wants the same thing that all free peoples have: freedom, dignity, respect and representative government. It is not ideological. It is at its heart, a civil rights movement.

It has been interesting for me to see how every time there is a break between street protests, people start to doubt the veracity and viability of the movement. This is understandable. There is so much pent up energy in the movement. People are literally itching for more action, and when it is not as visible as what we saw in the initial weeks after the election, with millions in the streets, then they start asking whether the movement has died down. Rest assured: the movement has not died down. It is alive and well and moving surely and steadily towards a free Iran that respects and enshrines the civil rights of its citizens.

In less than two days, on December the 7th (16th of Azar in Iran) we will see once again that the people are resisting the regime on National Student’s Day. Students inside Iran are planning major protests throughout the country. We will inevitably see the mainstream media outlets catch onto what is happening too late, with pundits and commentators acting surprised that the movement is still alive.

I will attempt to shed some light on the nature of the movement.

Read rest of article....

Iran's Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go

Here is why the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December) are important.

They are unlikely to bring the Ahmadinejad Government to its knees or prompt the Supreme Leader to pack his bags. They will not threaten to topple the Islamic Republic, which after all is not what the majority of protesters want. They will not even get a short-term response on critical issues such as adherence to the Constitution, the legal redress of the abuse of detainees, or any admission that the election of June 2009 was flawed, let alone rigged.

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However, a mass of demonstrators on the streets on 16 December --- not necessarily in one place, since it will be a priority of the security forces to prevent a single grouping that can dominate media coverage and draw in even more protestors --- will hold open and even create political "space". And it is "space" that will ensure the Ahmadinejad Government cannot be assured of legitimacy.

I am not sure that this has been appreciated, even by dedicated watchers of the Green Movement. The marches of 13 Aban (4 November) were an important indicator that the marathon of dissent would continue. But then it was a five-week stretch to 16 Azar, and inevitably doubts and debates crept in. Where was the leadership of the movement, given apparent uncertainty and caution of key figures, and did that matter if it was the "people" that were generating the Green Wave? Were activists considering a move to violent methods and could this be checked? What does this Movement seek?

This examination was inevitable. It is impossible to sustain the energy of a Qods Day or 13 Aban, so breath has to be drawn, thoughts collected, plans laid. At the same time, however, the Government was making its own move on "space", closing off the possibility that the Movement(s) --- which is not pursuing a single aim, is not led by a single person, and is not a single groups --- could not re-appear on 16 Azar to present its variety of objectives, frustrations, anger, hopes. So it has tried to break the protest through detentions of students leaders and threats against politicians from Mousavi to Karoubi to Rafsanjani while promoting the "legitimate" President through his world tour and declarations of authority at home. "Western" media have followed this story line: in the last 48 hours, The Wall Street Journal has gravely intoned, "Iranian Crackdown Goes Global", while The Guardian of London has shaken its head ruefully, "Iran opposition remains defiant but struggles to keep up protests". That narrative has prevented recognition of the long-term persistence of the Green opposition: one of the best US journalists admitted via Twitter yesterday, "Something I didn't know: Massive student protests in Iran scheduled for 12/7."

Do not be fooled. All of this doubt, even doom-saying is a mere waving of pens before the vital moment on Monday.

For if the thousands and tens of thousands emerge on the streets of Tehran and other cities, if news --- despite all the efforts of the Iranian Government --- comes out through blogs and Twitter and YouTube and e-mails, then the immediate objective will have been accomplished. The President has not been acclaimed, accepted, or even tolerated. The "space" has been re-opened for contests not only from outside the Iranian establishment, but from within it.

Consider two incidents in recent days. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, quieted in recent weeks but ever-stirring, has spoken on at least two occasions this week of the grave damage being done because of political disunity and the Government's attempted repression. Yesterday, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani renewed his assault on an unnamed but all-too-obvious Presidential foe:

Creating tension in the country is easy but (fostering) unity is not that simple. Damaging reputation is easy but respecting others’ dignity is important. We should not slander others in order to solidify ourselves.

The key to success is that we should not allow certain (persons) abuse the situation and put the people against each other by dividing them.

This is not in any way to argue that a Rafsanjani or Larijani are leading the Green Movement(s), let alone that they should be endorsed as "unity" candidates to replace Ahmadinejad. Nor is the reverse true: that Larijani and Rafsanjani are acting out of sympathy for the opposition rather than their own political interests. It does mean, however, that the President and his allies cannot rest assured of legitimacy.

And that, as an immediate, emotional, powerful symbol, is what a large turnout on 16 Azar will represent. Six months and the demands for recognition, for justice, and for change have not gone away. The election cannot be re-run but, for many, Ahmadinejad is not their leader, the Revolutionary Guard is not their protector, the judges are not their arbitrators, the legislators are not their spokesmen.

16 Azar will not be an endpoint, the termination of a system or even a President. It could be another tall monument, however, on a path of protest that cannot be ended by oppression, fatigue, or uncertainty.

Three Two Days to Go.

Switzerland's Minaret Ban: Iranian Foreign Minister Joins Criticism

Iran's Press TV reports that Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has told his Swiss counterpart Micheline Calmy-Rey by phone,  "The ban will undoubtedly change Switzerland's image as a leading advocate of human rights."

Mottaki also reportedly said, "This move did not befit a country claiming to be a number one advocate of democracy and religious freedom under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights."