After the Minaret Ban: $50 Billion to Leave Swiss Banks?

Following Switzerland's ban on the construction of minarets, speculation has arisen over the future of money kept wealthy Muslims in Swiss banks. Turkey's Minister of State Egenem Bagis has called on Muslims to transfer their money to his country.

After Swiss Referendum on Minarets: Who is Radicalizing Whom?

It is estimated that there is approximately $50 billion dollars held in Switzerland by states with a majority Muslim population. The top 12:

- Saudi Arabia: $13.5 billion
- United Arab Emirates: $6.9 billion
- Indonesia: $6.6 billion
- Turkey: $3.9 billion
- Lebanon: $3.5 billion
- Malaysia: $3.3 billion
- Kuwait: $2.3 billion
- Syria: $1.5 billion
- Jordan: $1.5 billion
- Iran: $1.1 billion
- Morocco: $1 billion
- Pakistan: $1 billion

Latest Iran Video: A Non-Crowd for Ahmadinejad in Isfahan? (2 December)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzAswSQKx6A[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (3 December): Normal Service?

Iran: English Text of Ayatollah Montazeri's Answers on the Green Movement

Translated and posted on Anonymous Iran:

QUESTIONS TO GRAND AYATOLLAH MONTAZERI:

Before the election the Iranian society had the desire to improve politically and economically. People had legitimate desires, and there was unparalleled excitement and positiveness as people took part in the election. But those people in power, with the help of "engineered votes", changed society’s situation to what we are witnessing now.

Iran Document: Ayatollah Montazeri’s Interview on Eve of 13 Aban
The Latest from Iran (3 December): Normal Service?

The Green movement after the election, represented the desire of the majority of the nation. But in doing so they suffered imprisonment and...torture and some even became martyrs. They hoped that by emphasizing the avoidance of violence that they would achieve their goals, until with God’s Blessing this movement would become widespread throughout the country. But for people to continue in this way, they need the answers to many questions. I respectively ask for your answers, that you will show the way to the movement and be a support to this oppressed nation.

In your opinion:

What were the achievements of the Sea of Green Movement over recent months?
What are the factors that could stop the movement from expansion and make the way harder for them?
What are the ways that would strengthen, safe-guard and protect the movement?
What do you suggest to make the movement grow and blossom?”

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s reply:

In the name of God the compassionate and the merciful,

"God will not change any nations circumstances unless the time that they themselves decide to change it’" Qu’ran Surah Ra’ad Aya 11

With greetings and appreciation of your concern regarding the current situation which is determining the fate of the nation:

1. The Sea of Green Movement is the real representation of the legitimate demands of the majority of the Iranian nation, over many years.

Up to now it has been facing the rough and extreme retaliation of the fundamentalist ruling regime, but the achievements of the Movement both nationally and internationally cannot be overlooked or ignored. This movement inside the country managed to establish a culture of peacefully demanding the rights of the nation. After the election, the movement exposed the real face of the oppressive and fundamentalist group (regime?). And of course the movement has suffered a very high cost. This shows that people won’t be satisfied with anything less than achieving their legitimate rights.

Killing, terrorizing, intimidation, arrests, irreligious and illegal show trials, along with the harsh and unjust sentences of active politicians and freedom seekers and lying and deceiving propaganda, have had no effect on people’s commitment or desire.

The foreign effect has been to change the view of foreign countries, especially those in the developed world, and among Human Rights agencies, about the desire of the nation and the suppression of the people. It has shown the real power of the nation to the world.

2. From amongst the factors that could be an obstacle to the movement’s legitimate expansion:

The use of deviating and divisive slogans. Any unsuitable slogans could give an excuse to the hard-line fundamentalists to put down the movement. The movement has both legitimate and legal desires and should pursue them peacefully. They should not respond to the violence and oppression with slogans or acts in ways that the regime would benefit. Things have been done deliberately to derail the movement and on many occasions people have seen both personal and public property being destroyed by the regime in order to blame and discredit the movement.

Another factor is expecting a quick victory with no patience. The movement should not show impatience to achieve the nation’s goals, but should have atience against roughness and disaster and perseverance in the way of justice....Perseverance to achieve rights is based in the important teaching of religion --- not only is it taught in the Qu’ran, but it is also reaffirmed in the Hadiths.

The third factor is differing views of how to achieve the end goal of the rights for the people. Disagreement on how to "encourage the good, and discourage the bad" can cause very serious damage to the cause and the people’s movement. In this subject the trusted and effective figures in the nation can clarify the legal and religious demands of the people and create full understanding with each other to avoid the aforementioned divisions and so strengthen the popular movement and safeguard against damage.

3. It is clear that those people who try to achieve the nation’s rights, in reality they do their national and religious duty of encouraging the good and discouraging the bad.

First of all they should show themselves to do right and good and avoid the futility of the bad. They should protect the boundaries of morality and religion, for their actions and movement to be in the way of the Creator and for the good of the people.

Once again I emphasize and repeat, I warn the rulers that the way you are walking on will bring nothing but damage and destruction not just to the religion, but also to the "earthly" issues, both upon yourselves and upon the nation.

Being loyal to the law and respecting the nation’s right is the best way to show a ruler’s good will.
Selfishness, greed, domination and the acts of violence against the nation, such the irreligious and illegal show trials of respected politicians and the heavy sentences for them, will have the outcome of isolation of the country and the system in the world. It puts even more distance between the people and the rulers and is destroying the face of the "oppressed Islam". And in the end it will bring God’s anger.

I hope that the people in charge will as soon as possible correct the futile way of wrong and will try to achieve the will of the creator and the nation.

The Latest from Iran (2 December): Postures and a Resolution

1140 GMT: Checking in briefly from Holland, I find that economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz has been given a nine-year prison sentence, according to his lawyer. Reports yesterday indicated that Laylaz might receive a 15-year sentence.

The Latest from Iran (1 December): A Week of Expectation 

0600 GMT: First, the resolution. Iranian state radio are reporting that the five British sailors, detained last week on a racing yacht that strayed into Iranian waters, will be released. So quiet diplomacy seems to have trumped any thoughts that an Iranian faction --- let's say, the Revolutionary Guard --- might have had of using the incident to assert authority.

Then again, the Revolutionary Guard may have made its point, both to Britain and to others in the regime. It can flex both military and political muscle with its "defense" of Iran's borders by land or by sea and, for at least several days, set the rules of the game.

Rules that even the President might have to heed: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems to be off on one of his I'm a World Leader, All Else Melts into Air mental journeys. His speech last night was a holiday snapshot of his Latin American tour, followed by more posturing against the "West". The "10 enrichment plants" stunt seems to have been given up, so now it's maybe we let inspectors in, maybe we don't. (Which, if you ask me, is tempting fate --- just ponder the case of a Mr S. Hussein)

That may work on the domestic front politically. Rather than directly address the challenges of an Ali Larijani, global evasion may signal that Ahmadinejad is too big for the trifles of Parliamentary Speakers. Still, the economy lurks, and it is there that the President may have to go hand-to-hand with the Majlis over his proposals.

And, beyond that, can Ahmadinejad strike the pose that the opposition beyond does not really exist, as Iran unites behind its world-leading position and nuclear sovereignty? I have the impression that he thinks he can.

Which is a convenient link to the calendar note: five days to 16 Azar.

The Latest from Iran (1 December): A Week of Expectation

2115 GMT: Hacking the State Media. HomyLafayette has the story of today's cyber-attack on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting:

At least a dozen web sites connected to the Islamic regime's radio and television broadcasters were hacked early this morning in an orchestrated operation. The attacked web sites include Radio Javan, Radio Payam, Radio Varzesh, Radio Tehran, Radio Qoran, the literary section of the state radio-television's web site, and the Jomeh Irani (NB Iranian Friday) program.

The hackers, calling themselves Y! Underground, substituted the homepages of the attacked web sites with the above image. The Farsi text reads, 'We will stand until the end.' The title of the pages became 'Defaced by Y! Underground.' Most of the web sites were quickly closed down by their technical staff....

Astonishingly, the literary section of IRIB's web site continues to show the image placed on it by the hackers.

2100 GMT: Ahh, This is Why Mahmoud's Upset. Full credit to Reuters for getting the possible story behind the Ahmadinejad warning to Russia tonight (see 2040 GMT). A "senior Russian diplomatic source" has said, "If there is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside."

This appears to be a continued Russian balancing act rather than a shift behind US-led sanctions. "Consensus" may mean that Russia will accept the measures only if China also is willing. And the source cautioned that economic punishment was a longer-term prospect: "We will be thinking about sanctions but this is not an issue of the next few hours or weeks. We would rather have Iran cooperating more openly and consistently with the IAEA and showing clear steps to lift concerns -- which are gaining greater foundation -- than introducing sanctions against Iran."

2040 GMT: More on Ahmadinejad's Defiance. If nothing else, these lines from the President's televised interview are attention-grabbing: ""[Western countries] need us more than we need them. It is psychological warfare and isolating Iran is impossible. Any finger which is about to pull the trigger will be cut off."

More significant may be Ahmadinejad's warning to Moscow to come back into line --- no sanctions, renewed co-operation --- with Tehran, as he criticised the Russian vote on the IAEA resolution criticising Iran's nuclear programme: "Russia made a mistake. It does not have an accurate analysis of today's world situation."

Iran: How Washington Views the Green Opposition — The Next Chapter
Video: The Bahari Interview on CNN (Part 2)
The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1940 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. After a 24-hour postponement, the President appeared on national television this evening. He offered, in the words of one viewer, "a geography lesson" for his tour of Latin America, comparing Iran favourably to its partners in Venezuela and Brazil.

Then, in the passage that Western media will pick up, Ahmadinejad declared, "Iran's nuclear issue has been resolved....We will hold no talks (with major powers) over this issue. There is no need for talks." He said that Tehran might allow inspectors to some sites or to none at all.

1715 GMT: And Today's Propaganda Warning. Islamic Republic News Agency, besides waving a finger at Hashemi Rafsanjani (1700 GMT) also gives a threatening push to Mir Hossein Mousavi. IRNA uses an interview with a Hojatoleslam to warn Mousavi that, if he keeps helping the enemies of Islam, he might suffer the fate of Abolhassan, Banisadr, the first President of the Islamic Republic who is now in exile in France.

1700 GMT: The Battle over Rafsanjani. Despite the explicit warning of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to back off, member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani has maintained his assault on the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, declaring that Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi is still the subject of a criminal investigation.

1645 GMT: It's not only EA readers who have debating which way forward for the Iranian opposition. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has replied to four questions about the Green movement.

1630 GMT: The Prison Doctor's Death. A twist in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the doctor at Kahrizak Prison who died in November. After claims by authorities that Pouranjdarjan committed suicide or was the victim of a heart attack, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi now says that the doctor died of poisoning. Only two weeks ago Doulatabadi's office said Pourandarjan had not been poisoned.

1335 GMT: The Potential Significance of the British Sailor Story. Mr Smith cuts through the stories (see 1155 GMT) to get to the possible importance of the detention of the five British sailors:

As I suspected, the sailors were indeed taken by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. Guess they want to boast their prowess in the Persian Gulf and warn about they will do inside or outside Iranian territorial waters in case of nuclear strike or even tougher sanctions.

That may be only the start of the matter, however. The IRGC could also use this case to flex their muscle against internal challengers. Conversely, other key figures, including President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader, may have to consider their manoeuvres versus the Revolutionary Guard.

Which is not dissimilar to the "British sailor" incident of two years ago, when 15 of Her Majesty's finest ---military in this case --- were detained. That ended, of course, with the release of the 15, an accomplishment for which Ahmadinejad took credit (although Ali Larijani was a central figure in the negotiations).

Two years on, and in a very different political context, will the IRGC again step back?

1145 GMT: Another Distraction. Looks like the international press will also be mesmerised by the story of the five British (civilian) sailors who have been detained after straying into Iranian waters. The standard line taken by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, chief of staff to President Ahmadinejad, "The judiciary will decide about the five ... naturally our measures will be hard and serious if we find out they had evil intentions," is racing across "Western" newspapers as an ominous sign.

The distraction extends to some rather fatuous speculation, as in this from The Guardian of London, "If the sailors arrested in the Persian Gulf are being punished for being British, Tehran's fear of the BBC could be a factor".

1015 GMT: Playing Down The Bluff. Less than 48 hours after shaking its fist with the "10 enrichment plants" declaration, the Iranian Government is edging away. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said this morning that there's not much to see here: If we do not get guarantees (for the delivery of the fuel), naturally we will have plans to move towards self-sufficiency. This is nothing unusual. Officials of some countries have rushed into adopting stances which may be indicative of the fact that they are concerned or angry." (CNN, incidentally, misses the story completely, distorting a general Mehmanparast statement ---"We will not do away with our rights" --- into "Iranian Legal Threat over Nuclear Plans.")

Meanwhile, something for the US to think about if it wants to push confrontation: a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman drew the line against further sanctions, "We should properly resolve this issue through dialogue. All parties should step up diplomatic efforts."

0715 GMT: Better Late than Never. The Associated Press has caught up with the politics of Iran's "10 enrichment plants" declaration, headlining, "Iran Nuke Plans Largely Bluster, Experts Say".

0710 GMT: Iran Contest of the Day. If the Supreme Leader's life was commemorated by Hollywood (see 0655 GMT), what would the title be?

0655 GMT: International news will be dominated today by President Obama's speech on US policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indeed, it will be interesting to see if there is a breathing space for the Administration on its next steps towards Iran, as everyone in Washington --- including Congressmen and activists pressing for a cut-off of  talks and tougher sanctions --- switch their attention to the Af-Pak political and military corridor.

Which, of course, does not mean that life stops in Iran. Amidst the debate about the state of the Green Movement and its goals, the plans for the demonstrations on 16 Azar are taking shape. Revised routes have now been posted. Here, for example, are the paths of protests in Tehran:

1. Azadi Square - Revolution Square - Tehran University


2. Hafte-Tir Square - St., Karim Khan - Asr Square - Keshavarz Blvd - Street workers - Tehran University


3. Tehran University dormitory complex - North Kargar Ave - Tehran University


4. Amir Kabir University - Cross-Asr - Tehran University


5. Ferdowsi Square - Street Revolution - Tehran University.

There are notes of activities at universities, and you can even follow a second-by-second countdown clock.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader took on another enemy on Monday. He stared down "Hollywood" in a meeting with with artists and directors of the Iranian television series "Hazrat Yousuf," a story from the Koran. The challenge to "Western" film was another setpiece in Ayatollah Khamenei's campaign for cultural purity from the arts to the universities to the seminaries.