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Entries in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (49)

Sunday
Dec062009

Enduring America's Very First Weekend Caption Contest


As a little light relief this weekend we're inaugurating our first ever Enduring America Caption Contest. The rules are simple: leave your caption(s) in the comments and the one we like best will win a fabulous prize our undying admiration.


Thanks to Catherine for suggesting the original image.


UPDATE: due to a great response and in honour of Azar 16 we're extending the contest through today, before putting it to a vote Tuesday and announcing a winner Wednesday.



[photo via Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty]
Sunday
Dec062009

The Latest from Iran (6 December): Tension Rises

16 AZAR POSTER32000 GMT: Widespread reports of loud "Allahu Akhbar" rooftop chants tonight. We've posted two videos.

1800 GMT: A day dominated by statements. We've posted an abridged English version of the Mousavi statement on 16 Azar and the student movement.

Iran Opinion: “Why The Green Movement Will Prevail”
NEW Latest Iran Videos: The Eve of 16 Azar “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (6 December)
NEW Iran Document: Mousavi Statement on 16 Azar and the Student Movement (6 December)
NEW Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech to Students (6 December)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on The Response to Extremism
Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)
Iran’s Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go
The Latest from Iran (5 November): Fun with the Regime

1505 GMT: We've just learned that Kalemeh has posted the 16th statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi, issued for 16 Azar. We'll look for an English summary.

1500 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has also made a statement for the commemoration of Eid al-Ghadir, the confirmation of Imam Ali’s succession to the Prophet Mohammad. Visiting political figures and family members of detainees, declared, "Today more than anytime we need to return to [Imam Ali's] model and policy because that path wants Justice, Freedom and Equality for all....A society or a government will survive with blasphemy but will not survive with oppression.”

1410 GMT: Raf's Back? Chatter continues about Hashemi Rafsanjani's Sunday speech. Khabar Online focuses on the former President's defense of his son, Mehdi Hashemi: Rafsanjani said that Hashemi had gone to Britain to pursue a Ph.D., not to evade criminal charges which are unfounded.

We've got an English translation of parts of the speech. Another version has been posted by activist MikVerbrugge.

1300 GMT: Supreme Leader Gives British a Boost. Further to Ayatollah Khamenei's speech (see 1130 GMT), this comes in from the Supreme Leader's office via Twitter, "Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized that USA is at the top of Iranian nation's enemies pyramid and Britain is their most vicious one."

So for all my British friends who fret about loss of power, declining Empire, and being just another sort-of-European country, cheer up....you're still vicious!

1130 GMT: It's All Because of the Foreigners. The Supreme Leader has told an audience of "thousands" that the Islamic Republic has rebuffed the efforts of foreign nations (US, Britain, Israel, etc.) to create differences over policy with their threat of sanctions. No reference, as far as I can see, to the internal challenge to the "unity" of the Iranian nation.

1125 GMT: Green Brief 75, covering the last 24 hours in Iran, is now out.

1120 GMT: Rafs' Move for 16 Azar. This may shake up a quiet morning: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has emerged to position himself between regime and protesters.

Rafsanjani told students in Mashhad, "The situation in the country is such that constructive criticism is not accepted," and pressed his call for unity and adherence to the law to "create a climate of freedom which will convince the majority of people and erase ambiguities".

The former President's message for tomorrow? "Those who demonstrate or protest must express themselves through legal means. Leaders must also respect the law. There have always been extremist factions and excessive attitudes on both sides... but several problems will be solved if we adopt the path of moderation."

0735 GMT: The Washington Post also has an article today on divisions within the regime, and it benefits --- in comparison to the piece in The Washington Times --- because Thomas Erdbrink is in Tehran. Drawing on public statements by analysts and former MPs, he focuses on the call of conservatives/principlists to end infighting, including the attacks on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0715 GMT: This time tomorrow the marchers --- how many? --- will be gathering in Tehran and other cities for the demonstrations on National Students Day, 16 Azar. News has been restricted for almost 24 hours because of the Government clamp-down on the Internet but we are still getting information on the preparations, accompanied by nervousness and excitement.

And the Government clamp-down cannot hide the nerves and tensions within its own ranks. No clearer sign of this than the order from the Culture Ministry, "All permits issued for foreign media to cover news in Tehran have been revoked from December 7 to December 9."

Away from the marches, the rumbling over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's economic plans continues. The President has threatened to withdraw his subsidy reform proposals because they were modified by the Parliament, but MPs are resisting, saying it is too late to withdraw the plan.

Barbara Slavin has an interesting approach to the situation in The Washington Times. Relying on US-based experts, she declares "the embattled regime fears showing weakness in the face of persistent domestic political opposition and rising foreign pressure.... Ayatollah Khamenei may instead now be subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards and other paramilitary forces that keep his government afloat."

The most interesting passage in the piece is an attempt by a "senior Administration official" to claim some credit for the internal difficulties: "The Obama strategy has generated a real debate in Iran over nuclear issues," with "a crack in the core" of the regime.

The most interesting oversight in the article? With its obsession with the nuclear issue, it offers only sentence to the imminent sign of dissent, "New protests are expected Monday on Iranian campuses to mark 'National Student Day,' previously a regime-backed event." Somehow I don't think the demonstrations will be just on campuses on Monday.

16 Azar is 1 day away.

Sunday
Dec062009

Iran's Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go

16 AZAR POSTER3Here is why the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December) are important.

They are unlikely to bring the Ahmadinejad Government to its knees or prompt the Supreme Leader to pack his bags. They will not threaten to topple the Islamic Republic, which after all is not what the majority of protesters want. They will not even get a short-term response on critical issues such as adherence to the Constitution, the legal redress of the abuse of detainees, or any admission that the election of June 2009 was flawed, let alone rigged.

Iran, the Greens, and the ex-Bushman: With Washington Friends Like These, Who Needs….?
The Latest from Iran (3 December): Normal Service?

However, a mass of demonstrators on the streets on 16 December --- not necessarily in one place, since it will be a priority of the security forces to prevent a single grouping that can dominate media coverage and draw in even more protestors --- will hold open and even create political "space". And it is "space" that will ensure the Ahmadinejad Government cannot be assured of legitimacy.

I am not sure that this has been appreciated, even by dedicated watchers of the Green Movement. The marches of 13 Aban (4 November) were an important indicator that the marathon of dissent would continue. But then it was a five-week stretch to 16 Azar, and inevitably doubts and debates crept in. Where was the leadership of the movement, given apparent uncertainty and caution of key figures, and did that matter if it was the "people" that were generating the Green Wave? Were activists considering a move to violent methods and could this be checked? What does this Movement seek?

This examination was inevitable. It is impossible to sustain the energy of a Qods Day or 13 Aban, so breath has to be drawn, thoughts collected, plans laid. At the same time, however, the Government was making its own move on "space", closing off the possibility that the Movement(s) --- which is not pursuing a single aim, is not led by a single person, and is not a single groups --- could not re-appear on 16 Azar to present its variety of objectives, frustrations, anger, hopes. So it has tried to break the protest through detentions of students leaders and threats against politicians from Mousavi to Karoubi to Rafsanjani while promoting the "legitimate" President through his world tour and declarations of authority at home. "Western" media have followed this story line: in the last 48 hours, The Wall Street Journal has gravely intoned, "Iranian Crackdown Goes Global", while The Guardian of London has shaken its head ruefully, "Iran opposition remains defiant but struggles to keep up protests". That narrative has prevented recognition of the long-term persistence of the Green opposition: one of the best US journalists admitted via Twitter yesterday, "Something I didn't know: Massive student protests in Iran scheduled for 12/7."

Do not be fooled. All of this doubt, even doom-saying is a mere waving of pens before the vital moment on Monday.

For if the thousands and tens of thousands emerge on the streets of Tehran and other cities, if news --- despite all the efforts of the Iranian Government --- comes out through blogs and Twitter and YouTube and e-mails, then the immediate objective will have been accomplished. The President has not been acclaimed, accepted, or even tolerated. The "space" has been re-opened for contests not only from outside the Iranian establishment, but from within it.

Consider two incidents in recent days. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, quieted in recent weeks but ever-stirring, has spoken on at least two occasions this week of the grave damage being done because of political disunity and the Government's attempted repression. Yesterday, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani renewed his assault on an unnamed but all-too-obvious Presidential foe:

Creating tension in the country is easy but (fostering) unity is not that simple. Damaging reputation is easy but respecting others’ dignity is important. We should not slander others in order to solidify ourselves.

The key to success is that we should not allow certain (persons) abuse the situation and put the people against each other by dividing them.

This is not in any way to argue that a Rafsanjani or Larijani are leading the Green Movement(s), let alone that they should be endorsed as "unity" candidates to replace Ahmadinejad. Nor is the reverse true: that Larijani and Rafsanjani are acting out of sympathy for the opposition rather than their own political interests. It does mean, however, that the President and his allies cannot rest assured of legitimacy.

And that, as an immediate, emotional, powerful symbol, is what a large turnout on 16 Azar will represent. Six months and the demands for recognition, for justice, and for change have not gone away. The election cannot be re-run but, for many, Ahmadinejad is not their leader, the Revolutionary Guard is not their protector, the judges are not their arbitrators, the legislators are not their spokesmen.

16 Azar will not be an endpoint, the termination of a system or even a President. It could be another tall monument, however, on a path of protest that cannot be ended by oppression, fatigue, or uncertainty.

Three Two Days to Go.
Saturday
Dec052009

The Latest from Iran (5 November): Fun with the Regime

ahmadinejad61910 GMT: Top Reformist Back in Jail. Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has gone back to Evin Prison after a 10-day temporary release. Nabavi, who is appealing a six-year jail sentence, refused to renounce political activity and was thus denied freedom until his case was resolved. He has been seriously ill and was in hospital during his release.

1740 GMT: Confirming the Disruption. It's not surprising that the regime has moving to choke off Monday's demonstrations by cutting off Internet services today. It does take me aback that "sources" in the regime have confirmed "the decision of the authorities" (to expose the activities of the Government? to intimidate the opposition?).

1710 GMT: Arresting the Mothers of Martyrs. Regular EA readers may recall that each Saturday mothers of those killed and detained in post-election conflict, joined by sympathisers, march in Tehran's Laleh Park. We've been watching reports of clashes at today's demonstration but have not waited for confirmation before posting. This is the latest from a reliable Iranian activist:
Before 5 p.m. today unmarked vans parked along side all streets around Laleh Park with 3-4 agents inside. Around Abnama Square there were police cars...and unmarked vans with tinted windows. Five or six younger women were arrested and taken by the unmarked vans to an undisclosed location. Fifteen or sixteen other women were arrested. Also three men were arrested & taken away.

1405 GMT: Josh Shahryar's Green Brief 74, covering the last 24 hours of developments in Iran, is now out.

NEW Iran: Will Israel Get An International Embargo?
NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on The Response to Extremism
Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)
Iran’s Critical Moment: Two Days to Go
The Latest from Iran (4 December): The Weekend Before

1400 GMT: Disrupting 16 Azar. Activists report that the Internet, and services like Google Mail, are running very slowly inside Iran.

1120 GMT: Pick a Number, Any Number. Maybe the Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Akhbar Salehi, looked at the statements from other Iranian and US officials (see 0940 GMT) and thought that he should raise his game. So he has declared that even the 10 new enrichment plants declared by the Cabinet last week aren't enough: "To provide fuel for our nuclear power plants, we need to have 20 uranium enrichment plants."

0940 GMT: Nuclear Postures. Meanwhile, both Iran and the US are talking tough in the suspended nuclear engagement. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani continues to use the issue to boost his profile, telling reporters Friday night: "Why does the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) continue to make such a fuss over Iran's enrichment activities despite knowing its peaceful purposes? The answer is quite simple really; all they want and seek to do is to deceive Iran and force it to readily accept whatever offer they put forward."

In Washington, the faction of the Obama Administration that favours a move towards sanctions found their own willing reporters, saying that they would move in early January for a new round of United Nations sanctions. Significantly, the leaking official said that the package might not only consist of "smart" sanctions aimed at the Revolutionary Guard, but also restrictions on Iran's petroleum industry. At the same time, the official betrayed an Administration caught between those in Congress pressing for sweeping sanctions and the difficulties of getting other countries to agree: "We are looking to find what everyone can agree will be most effective and have the least impact on the Iranian people."

0855 GMT: We've posted the latest statement of Mehdi Karroubi, issued yesterday, calling for a response to extremism.

0645 GMT: A distinct feeling of lull before "How Big a Storm?". Preparations for the demonstrations of  16 Azar (7 December) continue to circulate, but there is little open movement coming out of the Iranian weekend.

For now the space is filled by tales of President Ahmadinejad and other regime actors, tales meant to be very, very serious but somehow prompting a smile. There was Ayatollah Jannati on Friday effectively admitting, even as the Tehran Revolutionary Guard commander was saying "Nothing to worry about here", that the Government was fretting about the numbers who might hit the streets on Monday. Make no mistake, Jannati warned, you are betraying Islam and working for the Americans --- even as only a few Americans inside and outside the Government were figuring out that something might be happening on Monday.

Then there was the President laying it down to the West/Israel:

Despite pressure, sanctions and threats, Iran is…quiet, victorious and dear. All thought that pressure of bullying powers will lead to the defeat of the Iranian nation. During the post-election events, certain powers unanimously claimed that they can extract concessions from Iranians.

However, the Iranian nation proved that, in reality, enemies can do nothing....If the Zionist regime and its masters join forces, still they cannot do a damn thing....Even if bullying powers stay in the region for another 50 years, they will have no option but to leave the region with humiliation and in vain.

It is obvious that Ahmadinejad is going out of his way to make no reference whatsoever to the opposition within, as opposed to outside, his country. Still the temptation grows, just like when you're watching a horror film or a British pantomime, to shout out, "Mr President, Look Behind You".

Maybe the best tale moving around the Internet, however, concerns Ahmadinejad's speech earlier this week in Isfahan. Even though the crowd was smaller than expected, the President apparently laid it on thick about his valiant defense against the enemy of Washington. He even revealed the true intention of US foreign policy for the last 30 years.

Let it be known that, from Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama, the US Government has been dedicated to preventing the return of the 12th Imam of Shi'a Islam.
Friday
Dec042009

The Latest from Iran (4 December): The Weekend Before

16 AZAR POSTER42110 GMT: No to Sanctions. The National Iranian American Council has responded quickly to the news that members of the US House of Representatives are pressing for a vote on petroleum sanctions against Iran within the next two weeks: "Sanctions can play a constructive role within [engagement], but in order to be effective they must target the Iranian government and the individuals responsible for the government’s reprehensible behavior, with a special emphasis on those guilty of human rights violations."

NEW Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)
NEW Iran’s Critical Moment: Three Days to Go
Iran, the Greens, and the ex-Bushman: With Washington Friends Like These, Who Needs….?
The Latest from Iran (3 December): Normal Service?

2020 GMT: Here's the Real Nuke Story. Put away the distracting rhetoric from Tehran and keep an eye on Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council and one of the key players in Iran's nuclear manoeuvres. He has been in Damascus bending the ear of President Bashir al-Assad, and now he is in Turkey meeting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Jalili may be needing Turkish help more than ever, because it looks like he got a cold shoulder from Damascus. Rumours are circulating that Syrian-Iranian relations are deteriorating, to the point where yesterday's bus explosion may have been a tough signal to Tehran.

So here's a question, given that Turkey has been a broker for the "third-party enrichment" deal? Is Jalili trying to get the Turks to accept a package where uranium stays inside Iran? Or will the pressure work the other way, with Tehran trying to find a way to accept third-party enrichment and not lose face?

1840 GMT: Yawn. Ayatollah Jannati may have gotten worked up about the possibility of protesting "American agents" taking away 16 Azar, but Iranian state media can't even care enough to give this as much coverage as Enduring America's update (see 1210 GMT). Press TV puts out the stale rhetoric, "The recent resolution by the [International Atomic Energy Agency's] Board of Governors on Iran's peaceful nuclear activities and other anti-Iran resolutions by the UN Security Council have all been adopted under US pressure," and, um, that's it.

1825 GMT: Non-News of the Day. Even though it was a slow afternoon for events, I couldn't be bothered to update the posturing on the nuclear issue: "Iran will inform IAEA on new nuclear sites when ready", "Iran says it will give just six months’ notice before it begins operating 10 planned nuclear sites," etc., etc.

EA reader Catherine, however, has not only picked up those headlines but has given them the appropriate cursory analysis: "I have to laugh at the news about Iran coming out in the last couple of hours, as if it were some big act of defiance. Well duh....of course they’re going to take their time –-- they don’t even know where five of the 10 sites are going to be located yet."

1210 GMT: The Fight for 16 Azar. So the regime isn't worried? Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati used Friday Prayers in Tehran to warn that some people will try and take over National Students Day (7 December) to "satisfy the United States". He added to those who have "betrayed Islam and the revolution, "Criminals will see your work."

Perhaps Jannati should have taken a tip from Tehran Revolution Guard Commander Ali Fazli who played down the prospect of any trouble on 16 Azar, which is a "flower of a day" to be presented as thanks to Iranian students.

1010 GMT: Tehran Politics. Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf steered an interesting course in a long video interview with Al Jazeera this week. He defended the "democracy" of the Presidential election but criticised both President Ahmadinejad and his opponents for post-election behaviour that fuelled conflict. Qalibaf say "no one was happy" with detentions but evaded placing any blame, saying "everyone is doing his or her best to resolve the issue and I hope no one will be left in prison".

Qalibaf also played down reports of the Revolutionary Guard's expanding influence in the Iranian economy, while saying that Iran's Article 44 governing privatisation must be respected.

1000 GMT: The Green Brief is Back. Josh Shahryar has resumed his updates on the Iran situation, from protests to political developments.

0800 GMT: It is the weekend in Iran, providing an opportunity to catch up on news and to take a breath before the escalation of events leading up to the demonstrations of 16 Azar on Monday. We've posted a special analysis, "Iran's Critical Moment: Three Days to Go".

Included in that piece is the latest manoeuvre from Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani to challenge the authority of and around President Ahmadinejad, albeit without naming his rival, “Creating tension in the country is easy but (fostering) unity is not that simple. Damaging reputation is easy but respecting others’ dignity is important. We should not slander others in order to solidify ourselves.”

Meanwhile, Pedestrian has a short, powerful blog on the protest and uncertain fate of Mohammad Younes Rashidi, a student at Amir Kabir University (formerly Tehran Polytechnic). During a visit by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he held up a sign, “Polytechnic is not your place, you Fascist President.”

Rashidi was expelled and is now reported to be in custody in his native city of Mazandaran.