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Sunday
Dec132009

This Weekend on EA (12/13 December)

TOWN CRIERIran: Tension and rumours grew throughout Saturday and continued Sunday. See here for  details including reports on the Supreme Leader's speech Sunday morning and here for EA's special analysis from Scott Lucas and Mr Smith where we quesion whether this was a final warning for "the greens". There's more on the  furore over the alleged burning of Imam Khomeini's picture, stirred by pro-Government media - including our analysis of the situation.

There's a new collection of videos of Sunday protests at Iran universities. Saturday's footage.

Our worst "analysis" of the weekend (so far!) award went to Abbas Barzegar for his "conclusion  pulled down from the sky" in Saturday's UK Guardian newspaper.

Arrests and sentences : Jail terms were handed down for nine students from Shiraz University for their part in 13 Aban (4 November) protests.  A website has posted the names of 34 protestors arrested on 16 Azar (7 December).

A special report linking to an article in the Wall Street Journal, commended to us by several readers, on Iranians leaving the country amid the post-election conflict and possible Government measures against them.

On the nuclear front, Foreign Minister Mottaki - speaking at a regional security conference in Bahrain - took time out to speak about Iran's plans on uranium enrichment. A tweeter quoted him - "Iran would be happy to attend another meeting with the 5+1 powers".

More than $2 billion of Iranian assets was frozen last year  in Citigroup accounts by secret order of a federal court in NY City in what may be the biggest seizure of Iranian assets abroad since the Islamic Revolution.

The arrest of Majid Tavakoli, and the We are Tavakoli campaign - started on Facebook -  has been picked up by international print and broadcast media;   Josh Shahryrar has posted an "Ode to Majid Tavokoli".

Middle East: There's growing concern over the Lebanese-American arms deal.  A special report from Ali Yeniduya asks whether the Israeli settlers' conflict with the Palestinians is escalating? Looks like Israel's focusing on maintainin an open channel to Ankara, despite recent tensions.

UK/Israel: We ask - did the UK Government aid a boycott of Israeli products?

USA: President Obama has put out his Hanukkah message.

As always, all the latest news can be found in our liveblog.
Sunday
Dec132009

The Latest from Iran (13 December): Bubbling Over?

BASIJ STUDENTS1940 GMT: More Positions on the "Burning of Khomeini": More than 230 members of Parliament have issued a statement strongly condemning the incident, presumably (but not clearly, at least in the Press TV report) criticising the opposition and calling on the judiciary officials to punish those responsible. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has also denounced the act, expressing hope that it would not be repeated.

Iranian Students News Agency have published a series of photos (see inset) of Basij students of Azad University protesting in Jamaran, the neighbourhood where Imam Khomeini lived. Islamic Republic News Agency writes about the sit-in of Basij students at Tehran University.

1935 GMT: We Really Don't Have A Clue. Mehr News tries --- and fails --- to answer our question about President Ahmadinejad's meeting with Ali Larijani and Sadegh Larijani, "What Did They Say?" (1640 GMT): "The subsidy bill, which has become a thorny dispute between the Majlis and the administration, probably featured prominently in the talks. The Judiciary’s investigation of major economic corruption cases was also likely high on the agenda."

1800 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani is the latest clerical supporter of the opposition to condemn the desecration of Imam Khomenei's image and the Government's manipulation of the issue.

1640 GMT: So What Did They Say? Oh, to be a fly on the wall: President Ahmadinejad has met both Ali Larijani, Speaker of Parliament, and Sadegh Larijani, head of Iran's judiciary. No details but atmosphere was cordial enough for an official photograph.

1615 GMT: Reformists Alongside Khomeini. Former President Mohammad Khatami, after a strong denial that the opposition would dishonour Ayatollah Khomeini, has upheld the Imam as a standard for the Green movement, saying that it is the duty of religious people to protest.

1550 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, during all the protests and the furour over a possible showdown with opposition leaders, President Ahmadinejad is doing a spot of diplomatic entertaining. He met a Hamas delegation led by the political director, Khaled Meshaal, and declared, "The government and the people of Iran will always stand by the Palestinian resistance and the Palestinian people. Today Palestine is symbol of the global front of freedom-seekers and militants."

NEW Iran Analysis: Sifting the Propaganda – Government About to Arrest Opposition Leaders?
NEW Latest Videos from Iran's Universities (13 December)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Tehran University Protest & Strike (12 December)
Iran Special: Kermit the Frog Re-Mixes “It’s Not Easy Being Green”
Iran: A Renewed Washington Love Affair With The Green Movement?
Iran’s Arrest of Majid Tavakoli: “Khamenei in Hejab/We Are All Majids”
Iran: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli “His 16 Azar Speech on Video”
Iran: “The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People”? (with Audio)

The Latest from Iran (12 December): Bubbling Under

1535 GMT: Demoting Rafsanjani. According to Tabnak, Islamic Republic News Agency employees have been directed to use the clerical title "Hojatoleslam" when referring to Hashemi Rafsanjani. "Hojjatoleslam" is lower in rank than "Ayatollah", the previous title for the former President.

1350 GMT: Undaunted? Videos are coming through from protests at Iranian universities. We already have four campuses in the collection we've posted, and more may emerge during the afternoon. At Tehran University, Green demonstrators are facing a counter-protest from Basij students who are declaring a three-day sit-in. Security forces have surrounded the university.

1320 GMT: Revising the Threat Assessment. Mr Smith is walking me through the video of the Supreme Leader's speech, and he has a more ominous reading of this as a warning:

[Khamenei] is quite openly saying that the opposition "shall be wiped out". You can chalk this up as a prelude to any sort of harsh measure against the opposition.

This was a "make my day" speech, and one that quite bluntly asked the opposition leaders to back off and shut up. As a challenge, it ranks with the June 19 speech, if not even more emphatic than that.

To my query, "Is this then an ultimatum to the opposition not to make trouble during Moharram (beginning this Friday?", Mr Smith replies, "I think the gist is, shut up, don't make trouble during Tasua and Ashura (26-27 December)."

1230 GMT: Putting the Threats Together, But....? The Associated Press has picked up on a warning on the website of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, linking the "burning of Khomeini" story to the prospect of arrests: ''The Guard ... won't tolerate any silence or hesitation in the immediate identification, trial and punishment of those carrying out this ugly insult and the agents behind them."

Which still leaves the question of whether the threat will be carried. Reuters is the first "Western" agency to note the Supreme Leader's speech (see 1030 GMT) but misses the passage that we noted --- "keep your calm" --- indicating that drastic action will not take place.

1030 GMT: Wow, We Couldn't Predict This. Speaking this morning, the Supreme Leader declared, "[Our] enemies' groundwork is sedition and our groundwork should be strengthening perception and vision. Some people breached law and encouraged people to stand against regime. As a result,our desperate enemies got hope and insulted our Imam."

Now, are there arrests to follow the rhetoric? Here's a hint from Khamenei that there won't be: "Following insult to Imam Khomeieni, people became angry; but keep your calm, these people are rootless and can't confront [us]."

Instead, the Supreme Leader issued a "Back Off" message to Washington, as well as playing the "foreign intervention" card, "The President of USA declared that each Government that break laws must be accountable, but USA's governement is the biggest lawbreaker in world."

0830 GMT: News this morning is dominated by the rumours of a Government crackdown on the opposition, including the arrest of Green leaders. We have posted an analysis sifting through the propaganda and confusion to assess the likelihood that the regime will make an ultimate move.

Discussion also continues about the immediate background for the latest rumours, the battle over the alleged burning of the image of Imam Khomeini. EA reader Naj offers an analysis of the Government's propaganda strategy on  the blog Neo-Resistance.

Meanwhile, if you want a diversion from the internal tension, there is always the posturing over the nuclear discussions. The US has issued a summary rejection of Iran's proposal, put by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki yesterday, for a "swap" of uranium inside the country: "Iran's proposal does not appear to be consistent with the fair and balanced draft agreement proposed by the International Atomic Energy Agency." The pro forma No does not mean, however, that the discussions have been closed.

Mottaki and the US have also swapped blows over their political power plays in Latin America. After Hillary Clinton's unsubtle warning to Latin American countries not to engage with Iran, the world's top supporter of terrorism, Mottaki took the high ground, "We condemn such attitudes which violate values of the third millennium."
Sunday
Dec132009

Iran Analysis: Sifting the Propaganda - Government About to Arrest Opposition Leaders?

MOUSAVI KARROUBIUPDATE 1355 GMT: We've got the latest developments in our LiveBlog. Current assessment? Based on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning, we think the Green movement(s) are on a "final warning". That would mean no immediate arrests of opposition leaders, but if there is protest during Moharram....

LATEST POST (14 December) Iran: "Arrests" and the Regime's Sword of Damocles


UPDATE 0800 GMT: Just after posting this, I noticed the English summary of the blog of the academic and journalist Alireza Nourizadeh, who lives outside Iran but claims good sources inside the country. He says that there was a three-hour meeting on Saturday night between the top commanders of security forces and the military, the Minister of Intelligence, and the Supreme Leader and his son Mojtaba. (Note: no President Ahmadinejad)



Nourizadeh asserts, "During the meeting the majority of participants requested the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Seyed Mohamad Khatami and the placing of Hashemi Rafsanjani under surveillance. Khamenei, however, postponed his final decision to tomorrow.



Nevertheless, according to a very reliable source it is very probable that the coup leaders take series of important measures including arrest of a number of opposition figures tonight."

0730 GMT: We awake to sift through the chatter and rumours of more Government action against the reformists and Green Wave(s). Sparked by an entry in Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh and then accelerated by the repetition of the warning by other reformists websites such as Norooz and Mehdi Karroubi's website Tagheer, the concern grew that Mousavi might be arrested.

Here is where we are this morning:

1. THE FAILURE OF THE KHOMEINI "ON FIRE" CAMPAIGN: Of course, there are a number of reasons why the regime might take the dramatic and dangerous step of detaining the most prominent Green leaders.However, the immediate catalyst seems to come from a Government stumble: the clumsy propaganda campaign using the alleged burning of Ayatollah Khomeini's photograph by protesters.

It is secondary whether or not the video shown on 16 Azar by State media, claiming to be of a man urged on by a crowd to deface and then set on fire images of the current Supreme Leader and Khomeini, is genuine. What matter is whether people believe it is genuine. And it appears that, given the increasing shrillness of the Government campaign, that the regime has failed to make the allegation stick.

And there has been a negative effect undermining the authority of those in charge. The reformist response --- announcing that Khomeini was not burned but saying nothing about Ayatollah Khamenei --- speaks loudly in its omission: we are not protesting the Imam's idea of the Republic but the current state of that Republic and, in particular, the man occupying the post of Supreme Leader.

2. RAISING THE STAKES: So the regime was unable to turn 16 Azar, damaging in its display of persistent protest despite all the Government restrictions, into an example of the opposition's dastardly effort to destroy the Republic. What next?

Simply put, keep banging away. So on Saturday Ahmad Khatami, who has been the point man for hard-line declarations (remember the death penalty for protesters announcement in his Friday Prayer early in the crisis?), indicated that there must be punishment of those responsible for the desecration both of Khomeini's image and the regime's authority. That message in turn was trumpeted by outlets such as IRNA and Fars News.

3. FROM PROPAGANDA TO REALITY? Another warning has thus been put out by the regime.

There is a practical dimension to the threat. The Government's strategy in the run-up to the 16 Azar protests focused on the detention of student leaders, but this was not enough to stop the tide of demonstration. Even if the protests were smaller than on previous occasions, their concentration on campuses at the same time as they spread throughout the country galvanised attention --- note the swing in international media from declaring the Green Wave over to announcing its resurgence. (Is that duplicated amongst those "in the know" inside Iran?)

So if it's not enough to take out the student leaders, what can you do, especially with the important religious occasion of Mosharram around the corner? You go up the chain and challenge the Big Guys.

And don't underestimate the effect of groups of individuals simply deciding to force the issue. On the day after 16 Azar, Mousavi's offices were surrounded by about 40 plainclothes personnel, sparking a confrontation with the opposition leader. Both sides backed away --- Mousavi's security taking him back into his offices, the plainclothesmen dispersing --- but the showdown could have escalated.

The Government has threatened before to detain opposition leaders. And it has arrested high-profile Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi advisors. However, it has not necessarily been able to hold those advisors, such as Alireza Beheshti. (Whether it has been able to limit their role in the movement is an important and, for us, unanswered questioned).

For now, therefore, the rumours of the ultimate arrest of Mousavi appear to be a combination of regime frustration, a waving of the Sword of Damocles over the Green Movement, and the opposition's own nervousness.

None of which gives answers. That is, beyond this important lesson, six months and two days after the Presidential election....

This isn't over.
Sunday
Dec132009

Latest Iran Videos: The Universities Protest (13 December)

More videos from Iran's universities during Sunday daytime (Note the emphasis on holding up -and thus respecting- the image of Imam Khomeini), and at night on the rooftops.

Tehran at night

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqOhHzjNoco&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]


Mashhad University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqJwnNJIxuQ[/youtube]

Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTnSfEoPOXM[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (13 December): Bubbling Over?



[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_VINjQAbhs[/youtube]

Ghazvin University of Medical Sciences, Northwest of Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNsEX606s68[/youtube]


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or-T-0FWtC0[/youtube]

Tehran University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAFQGhKKoJk[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aA8a9WUvObE[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGrj2AQ_QeA&feature=channel[/youtube]

Alzahra University

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taU7ydIbz9E[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeW5EMiwsck[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeW5EMiwsck[/youtube]

Khaje Nasir University

[Inside : Silent protest/Hunger Strike]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aflv49J8_00[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0w5blWlBWI&feature=player_embedded[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqpoWgcDNFE[/youtube]

Shiraz University "Silent Protest" [Note: Also Identified Elsewhere as Kashan University]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d-hFRnpYI4&feature=channel[/youtube]
Sunday
Dec132009

Israel: Growing Concern over Lebanese-American Arms Deal

Lebanon_Israel_flags_012Israeli officials worry that the arms sale agreement between Lebanon and the United States, made during Lebanese President Michel Suleiman's visit to Washington this week, might strengthen Hezbollah. Under the bargain, the US will provide the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) with 12 Raven unmanned reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft in the coming months.

Israel is concerned that the Lebanese national unity government has allowed Hezbollah to keep its weapons. Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Hizbullah was becoming the "real Lebanese army" as the dominant force in Lebanon. This should be aligned with Netanyahu's past warnings that the Lebanese government is responsible for any rocket attack directed against Israel from Lebanon.