A New US Foreign Policy? The Biden Speech in Munich Yesterday

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The media chat this morning will be about Vice President Joe Biden's speech to the Munich Security Conference yesterday. Our own reading is that the easy part was Biden's signals of difference from the Bush Administration. The US would act "preventively, not pre-emptively" (no more Iraq 2003, at least over the pretext of weapons of mass destruction) and multilaterally. The emphasis will not be on magic capabilities like Missile Defense, but on a wider range of diplomatic, economic, and military instruments.

"America will not torture. We will uphold the rights of those we bring to justice," Biden asserted, and he also said that the US would be constructive in finding solutions to climate change.



At the same time, Biden was careful to play the "America will be tough" card, saying the US would "vigorously protect [its] security and values, and he had a not-so-veiled challenge, if not warning, to international partners. The US would uphold alliances if they were "credible and effective" (think back to George W. Bush's 2002 lecture to the UN that it would not be "relevant" if it did not back military action over Iraq), and "America will ask for more from its partners".

Which brings us to the hard part. The Obama Administration may be far more "realist" in its approach to foreign affairs than its predecessor, but the up-front choices are daunting. Biden tried to match the Russians in the competitive co-operation, saying the US would not tolerate a Russian "sphere of influence" but continuing, "The United States and Russia can disagree and still work together where our interests coincide, and they coincide in many places."

On Iran, Biden stuck to the current script of possible diplomacy first but waved the stick: "Continue down the current course and there will be pressure and isolation; abandon the illicit nuclear program and your support for terrorism and there will be meaningful incentives."

OK, so the hope of "engagement" continues to flicker. What the media missed is that, on two other cases, Biden's signal is that the Obama White House may be charging ahead against perceived enemies, even if that rips up possible settlements and co-operation.

Consider this on the Middle East, which no one seemed to pick up yesterday or this morning: "We must consolidate the cease-fire in Gaza by working with Egypt and others to stop smuggling, and developing an international relief and reconstruction effort that strengthens the Palestinian Authority, and not Hamas." So, despite all the evidence that beating up on Gaza --- be it through Israeli military action or economic strangleholds --- is not dislodging the Gazan leadership and actually weakening Mahmoud Abbas, the US (at least in its public signals) is going to keep playing at the game that it doesn't have to accept the political realities. It will do so even if that means more deprivation and destruction in Gaza.

It is on Afghanisan/Pakistan, however, that this Administration could meet its downfall, and here Biden's "realism" led him to say, if we go down, we all go down together: ""We look forward to sharing that commitment with the government and people of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and with all of our allies and partners, because a deteriorating situation in the region poses a security threat not just to the United States, but I would suggest, somewhat presumptively, to every one of you assembled in this room."

The glimmer of light is that Biden also said the US "strategic review" on the two countries is not completed --- code for the battle between President Obama and the military on the way forward --- so Washington may pull back from its full-speed, military-first surge in Afghanistan.

If not, you can go back to Biden's speech and see where all the talk of a new, multilateral relationship actually had the makings of an almighty bust-up between the US and its European partners.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (7 February)

Latest Post: Obama vs. The Military (Part 2) - The Battle for Iraq Continues
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8:45 p.m. We've just put up a separate post on another heated battle between President Obama and the military, this one over Iraq.

3:15 p.m. Reports that another Iranian blogger, Omid Reza Mirsayafi, has been jailed.

3:10 p.m. Pitching in for America. In his speech at the Munich Security, NATO's Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has backed the US call for a military "surge" in Afghanistan, criticising Europe's response: ""I'm frankly concerned when I hear the United States is planning a major commitment for Afghanistan but other allies are already ruling out doing more."

I'm not sure Scheffer appreciates that European leaders thinking the military-first initiative in Afghanistan, as a dubious if not losing cause, will drain the alliance rather than bolster it. German Chancellor Angela Merkel paid lip service to the military effort but did not commit to additional deployment, especially in southern and central Afghanistan, while French President Nicolas Sarkozy, for all his warm talk of security "from Vancouver to Vladivostok", did not mention Afghanistan at all.

3 p.m. Hope in Somalia? The new President, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, has arrived in Mogadishu for the first time since his election. He will be holding talks with politicians, tribal elders, and Islamic resistance groups to try to establishing a functioning government.


1:40 p.m. Reason Number 452 why the Obama Plan for Iraq Withdrawal Should be Set Aside: Collapsing Oil Prices.

The latest effort from the US military to rationalise a long-term stay comes from Lieutenant General Frank Helmick, the commander of the training of Iraqi forces. Because of diminished revenues, Helmick says, "They are not going to be able to grow as fast as they want to grow."

12:15 p.m. Biden's speech is over. He finally got to the one to watch in next weeks, calling on NATO to support US efforts in Afghanistan.

12:05 p.m. Biden offers two important confirmations: "American will not torture" and "American will act aggressively against climate change".

There are also signs of an emerging and important relationship: after Nicolas Sarkozy's call this morning for a new security arrangement "from Vancouver to Vladivostok", Biden has pointedly praised France's new cooperative relationship with NATO.

And there's a jab at Russia: ""We will not recognize any nation having a sphere of influence". Specifically, US will not join Moscow in recognising the independence of South Ossetia.

11:55 a.m. Vice President Joe Biden now speaking at the Munich Security Conference. Despite the bigging up of the speech by US officials, nothing significant so far. It's pretty much a restatement of the Obama Inaugural Address and general line on issues such as Iran. Interesting but vague statement: "America will do more. That's the good news. The bad is America will ask for more cooperation."

11:30 a.m.An interesting development, given the state of play in US-Iran relations. The Department of the Treasury has designated as a terrorist organisation the Party of Free Life in Kurdistan (PEJAK), which operates against Iranian security forces to "free" the "occupied lands of Kurdistan".

Stuart Levey, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, stated that PEJAK is a branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is battling Turkey has been struggling. (Ali Yenidunya)

9:15 a.m. Eight Pakistani police have been killed in a bomb attack in Punjab province. In Afghanistan, the Interior Ministry claims 10 militants have been killed.

8:20 a.m. And there's a separate entry on the continuing battle between President Obama and the military over the build-up of US troops in Afghanistan.

8:10 a.m. We've just posted a separate entry on a possible State Department initiative, using Twitter, to support engagement with Iran.

Morning Update (7:45 a.m. GMT; 2:45 a.m. Washington): The Kyrgyzstan Government is not backing down on its decision to close the US Manas airbase. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said that "all due procedures" were being pursued for a speedy conclusion.

The Government is claiming that it receives too little payment for the base. In support of its case, and to ensure public support, it is also citing ecological concerns and highlighting the case of a Kyrgyz citizen killed by a US serviceman.

North Korea, offering a contrast to its hard-line rhetoric in recent days about relations with South Korea and its missile programme, has signalled to a former senior US diplomat that it is willing to discuss nuclear disarmament if its requests for aid are met.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has visited Iraq and praised the provincial elections, which we analysed in detail yesterday.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest on US Foreign Policy (6 February)

Latest Post: Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections
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Current Obamameter Reading: Murky

9:25 p.m. We'll need time to decode Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's speech at Munich today but, on first reading, it appears to be the line of "we will talk to the US if it unclenches its fist". Calling on Washington to change its tactics "to a chess game from a boxing match", Larijani invoked the history of US challenges to Iran, including Washington's support of Iraq in the 1980s during Baghdad's war with Tehran, but said a new relationship was possible if the US "accepts its mistakes and changes its policies". In a world where Israel was allowed to have more than 200 nuclear weapons, "the dispute over Iran’s nuclear issue is by no means legal”.

Simple translation? Iran talks formally but only if the US not only refrains from preconditions but eases existing economic restrictions.

9:20 p.m. You have to admire Poland, either for being completely out of it or having no shame in sucking up to Washington or both. Apparently missing the news that the Obama Administration is walking away from missile defence, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk "will definitely tell Vice President Biden tomorrow in Munich we are ready to participate in this project, a U.S. project".

Evening Update (8:30 p.m. GMT): We've just posted a separate entry "Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections" with Juan Cole's detailed breakdown and incisive consideration of the results.

The Russian Paradox. As Moscow tries to assert political and military influence in Central Asia and on its western borders, attempting to negotiate with the US from a position of strength, it faces financial and economic crisis at home. We'll have an analysis this weekend, but The Daily Telegraph has just posted Russian President Dmitri Medvedev's warning of unrest:

We are falling under the influence of the global crisis – a worsening problem of unemployment and other social issues. At such a time one encounters those who wish to speculate, to use the situation. One cannot allow an already complicated situation to deteriorate.

In the latest diplomatic move, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov told the Munich Security Conference that the Obama Administration offered a "window of opportunity" for positive resolution of the issue of missile defence in Europe.



2:15 p.m. Pakistan authorities claim 52 militants have been killed by army helicopters in fighting south of the Khyber Pass.

1:15 p.m. Today's Russia Reading: Gusting in Your Face. Abhkazia, the region in Georgia which Russia recognised as independent last summer, has announced that it will host a Russian naval base and an airbase. The Abhkaz Deputy Foreign Minister said a 25-year military treaty could be signed.

10:40 a.m. Watching the World Turn. McClatchy News Services has an illuminating article on how Iran is promoting its aims through "soft power" in Latin America, providing millions of dollars in aid to Bolivia.

10:10 a.m. The Guardian of London, amidst the mix of developments on US-Iran relations, offers what I think is sensible advice:

Instead of concentrating narrowly on preventing Iranian nuclear weapons, the better way would be to proceed incrementally, by way of small concessions and bargains, recognising that the gulf between the Iranian and American understanding of history is a very wide one. More fundamental progress is unlikely unless there is movement toward a settlement between Israelis and Palestinians, and an acceptance that the Israeli nuclear monopoly cannot be left out of the equation when urging nuclear restraint on other states. There are no magic wands in the Middle East.

9 a.m. After a bomb killed at least 27 people at a Shi'a mosque in Central Pakistan, hundreds of Shi'a have set fire to a police station.

8 a.m. US-led raid in Zabul province in southern Afghanistan kills 6 people; council member says they are civilians.

Morning Update (6:30 a.m. GMT; 1:30 a.m. Washington): Important clues to President Obama's position in his battle with the US military over strategy in Afghanistan. Speaking to Democratic Congressmen last night, he emphasized the US cannot win the war in Afghanistan by military means alone. The military "needs a clear mission", as there is a danger of "mission creep without clear parameters".

Translation? Obama is not happy with the military's suggestion that the US hand off non-military activities and "nation-building" to European allies and NATO and believes that the proposed buildup of US forces lacks an "exit strategy" with a political as well as military resolution.

You know Kyrgyzstan must be important, even if I still can't pronounce it, because CNN leads with Hillary Clinton's denunciation of the Kyrgyz Government's decision to close the US airbase as "regrettable". Notable, however, that she did not criticise Russia, who helped Kyrgryzstan on its way with promises of financial and economic support.

The Kyrgyz Government is insisting that its decision is final: "The U.S. embassy and the [Kyrgyz] Foreign Ministry are exchanging opinions on this, but there are no discussions on keeping the base." The Kyrgyz Parliament votes on the decision next week.

A suicide bomber killed himself and wounded seven at a checkpoint on Pakistan's Khyber Pass. Security forces suspect he was trying to get to a bigger bridge, which army engineers are repairing after it was damaged by a bomb earlier this week.

Judge Susan Crawford, overseeing the military commissions process at the Guantanamo Bay detention centre, has halted the last ongoing trial. She overruled a judge who ordered the continuation of hearings over a suspect in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole.

The Latest on (Possible) US-Iran Secret Talks

A blog at The Los Angeles Times updates on the possibility of American and Iranian officials meeting this weekend at the Munich Security Conference.

The Times seems to have gotten the story muddled, if not wrong, however. Its spin is that "Iranians have been falling all over themselves to predict there won’t be any thaw in the diplomatic ice", yet if you read the entry carefully, the evidence is that Tehran may be manoeuvring cautiously for quiet, little-noticed discussions.



Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, one of the key Tehran politicans to watch when it comes to foreign affairs, will be at the Conference. Publicly he is setting out a guarded, wait-and-see line:

Mr. Obama in one of his speeches talked of following a new way regarding the Islamic world, but in some media, some sentences are attributed to him which are not promising, such as talking of big carrots and big stick. This sort of talk is beneath the dignity of the Iranian nation.

Larijani added that, for talks to proceed, there needed to be a step by Washington such as the unfreezing of Iranian assets or the release of Iranians detained in Iraq since 2005. The US would also have to avoid the precondition of a temporary suspension of Iran’s production of nuclear fuel.

OK, so Larijani is setting out red lines before any formal talks begin. But, and this is the key, he is not ruling out off-the-record contacts which could raise the issues of economic sanctions, detentions, and co-operation in areas such as Afghanistan. The Times has the significant line even as it ignores the significance:

[Larijani] told reporters today there was “no plan” to talk with American counterparts, but he didn’t rule out the possibility of informal contacts.

Juan Cole offers an excellent overview of the dynamics within the US Administration and of the reasons why Iran might welcome informal discussions.