Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (8 February)

Latest Post: Update on Obama v. The Military - Where Next in Afghanistan?
Latest Post: A New US Foreign Policy? The Biden Speech in Munich
Latest Post: Transcript of Joe Biden's Speech on Obama Foreign Policy

Current Obamameter: Settled

7:20 p.m. We've just offered, in a separate post, a latest view of the battle in Washington over the proposed "surge" in Afghanistan.

5:10 p.m. Message to Georgia: No, No, NATO. Following up his overtures to Russia on Saturday in his Munich speech, Vice President Joe Biden made it clear on Sunday that the Obama Administration would not be pushing Georgia's accession to NATO.

After meeting Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, Biden responded to a question about accession: "I'm in favor of Georgia's continued independence and autonomy. That is a decision for Georgia to make."

5:05 p.m. Important news out of Tehran: former President Mohammad Khatami has announced he will run in June's Presidential election.

4:35 p.m. And It Went So Well in Baghdad. President Obama's envoy to Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, has said that victory there will be "much tougher" than in Iraq. He told the Munich Security Conference, ""I have never seen anything like the mess we have inherited."

Two US troops and two Afghans were killed by a bomb in Helmand Province on Sunday.



Afternoon Update (4:15 p.m. GMT; 11:15 a.m. Washington): Another bit of publicity around the Afghanistan battle. National Security Advisor James Jones has told a German newspaper that a decision on strategy will be needed by the NATO summit on 5 April. Jones added platitudes such as "answers will not be unilateral but multilateral" and the insistance that NATO and the Afghan Government must stop the drug trade as the "economic fuel of the insurgency".

Decoding? Jones is flagging up the duties that US military, as it "surges", would like to pass on to European partners. That's especially pertinent in Germany, where there is public unease about taking on the hard-line enforcement of a drugs ban. Indeed, it is no coincidence that it was German media that leaked the unwise statement of an American military commander last week that troops should have the right to shoot drug producers on sight, whether or not they are connect to the Taliban.

On the Russian front, Moscow has welcomed Joe Biden's call "to reset the button" of relations. Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said, "It is obvious the new U.S. administration has a very strong desire to change and that inspires optimism,"

4 p.m.  Just back from recording for Al Jazeera's Inside Story and an engaging discussion on the Biden speech and US foreign policy with Daveed Gartenstein-Ross of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Rosemary Hollis of City University, London. Airtime is 5:30 p.m. GMT.

1 p.m. Al Jazeera English is now focusing on Afghan President Hamid Karzai's address to the Munich Security Conference. karzai has made a big political play, setting out a strategy of reaching out to the "moderate Taliban" for discussions. This is not a new position for Karzai, but in the midst of the US consideration of a military "surge", the timing of this makes it an important intervention.

Interesting that AJE is framing this as a US v. Afghanistan battle in which "the US will get its way" on the troop build-up, missing the emering story of division within the White House.

We'll follow up later, after speaking with AJE, about the latest from Washington. It appears that President Obama is holding out against immediate approval of the military's proposals because of the lack of an "exit strategy".

8:45 a.m. So how intensive is the Obama Administration's spin campaign on Afghanistan and Pakistan? In the same New York Times that tells Afghan leader Hamid Karzai he could soon be yesterday's man, there is a loving profile of Obama envoy Richard Holbrooke, complete with family photos and Superman rhetoric:

You have a problem that is larger than life. To deal with it you need someone who’s larger than life.

8:33 a.m. The New York Times has a dramatic article on the widening gap between the US and Afghan leader Hamid Karzai, adding weight to the speculation that Washington may try to "ditch" its erstwhile choice to run the country. Fed by inside information from Obama Adminsitration officials, the article opens with an account of how Vice President Joe Biden walked out on a dinner with Karzai last month after the Afghan leader denied any corruption in his Government:

President Obama said he regarded Mr. Karzai as unreliable and ineffective. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said he presided over a “narco-state.” The Americans making Afghan policy, worried that the war is being lost, are vowing to bypass Mr. Karzai and deal directly with the governors in the countryside.

Morning Update (8:30 a.m. GMT; 3:30 a.m. Washington): Pretty quiet overnight, so we've focused this morning, in a separate entry, on an analysis of Joe Biden's speech to the Munich Security Conference, setting out the "new tone" (and, for us, troubling cases) in US foreign policy. We've also posted the transcript of the speech.

Scott Lucas of Enduring America will be appearing on Al Jazeera English at 2 p.m. GMT to discuss the Obama/Biden approach.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest on US Foreign Policy (6 February)

Latest Post: Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections
Latest Post: Obama and Blair - The Symbolism of Loyalty
Latest Post: US Economy Saved - Dunking Dick Cheney
Latest Post: Red Alert - Fox "News" Launches Comrade Update

Current Obamameter Reading: Murky

9:25 p.m. We'll need time to decode Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's speech at Munich today but, on first reading, it appears to be the line of "we will talk to the US if it unclenches its fist". Calling on Washington to change its tactics "to a chess game from a boxing match", Larijani invoked the history of US challenges to Iran, including Washington's support of Iraq in the 1980s during Baghdad's war with Tehran, but said a new relationship was possible if the US "accepts its mistakes and changes its policies". In a world where Israel was allowed to have more than 200 nuclear weapons, "the dispute over Iran’s nuclear issue is by no means legal”.

Simple translation? Iran talks formally but only if the US not only refrains from preconditions but eases existing economic restrictions.

9:20 p.m. You have to admire Poland, either for being completely out of it or having no shame in sucking up to Washington or both. Apparently missing the news that the Obama Administration is walking away from missile defence, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk "will definitely tell Vice President Biden tomorrow in Munich we are ready to participate in this project, a U.S. project".

Evening Update (8:30 p.m. GMT): We've just posted a separate entry "Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections" with Juan Cole's detailed breakdown and incisive consideration of the results.

The Russian Paradox. As Moscow tries to assert political and military influence in Central Asia and on its western borders, attempting to negotiate with the US from a position of strength, it faces financial and economic crisis at home. We'll have an analysis this weekend, but The Daily Telegraph has just posted Russian President Dmitri Medvedev's warning of unrest:

We are falling under the influence of the global crisis – a worsening problem of unemployment and other social issues. At such a time one encounters those who wish to speculate, to use the situation. One cannot allow an already complicated situation to deteriorate.

In the latest diplomatic move, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov told the Munich Security Conference that the Obama Administration offered a "window of opportunity" for positive resolution of the issue of missile defence in Europe.



2:15 p.m. Pakistan authorities claim 52 militants have been killed by army helicopters in fighting south of the Khyber Pass.

1:15 p.m. Today's Russia Reading: Gusting in Your Face. Abhkazia, the region in Georgia which Russia recognised as independent last summer, has announced that it will host a Russian naval base and an airbase. The Abhkaz Deputy Foreign Minister said a 25-year military treaty could be signed.

10:40 a.m. Watching the World Turn. McClatchy News Services has an illuminating article on how Iran is promoting its aims through "soft power" in Latin America, providing millions of dollars in aid to Bolivia.

10:10 a.m. The Guardian of London, amidst the mix of developments on US-Iran relations, offers what I think is sensible advice:

Instead of concentrating narrowly on preventing Iranian nuclear weapons, the better way would be to proceed incrementally, by way of small concessions and bargains, recognising that the gulf between the Iranian and American understanding of history is a very wide one. More fundamental progress is unlikely unless there is movement toward a settlement between Israelis and Palestinians, and an acceptance that the Israeli nuclear monopoly cannot be left out of the equation when urging nuclear restraint on other states. There are no magic wands in the Middle East.

9 a.m. After a bomb killed at least 27 people at a Shi'a mosque in Central Pakistan, hundreds of Shi'a have set fire to a police station.

8 a.m. US-led raid in Zabul province in southern Afghanistan kills 6 people; council member says they are civilians.

Morning Update (6:30 a.m. GMT; 1:30 a.m. Washington): Important clues to President Obama's position in his battle with the US military over strategy in Afghanistan. Speaking to Democratic Congressmen last night, he emphasized the US cannot win the war in Afghanistan by military means alone. The military "needs a clear mission", as there is a danger of "mission creep without clear parameters".

Translation? Obama is not happy with the military's suggestion that the US hand off non-military activities and "nation-building" to European allies and NATO and believes that the proposed buildup of US forces lacks an "exit strategy" with a political as well as military resolution.

You know Kyrgyzstan must be important, even if I still can't pronounce it, because CNN leads with Hillary Clinton's denunciation of the Kyrgyz Government's decision to close the US airbase as "regrettable". Notable, however, that she did not criticise Russia, who helped Kyrgryzstan on its way with promises of financial and economic support.

The Kyrgyz Government is insisting that its decision is final: "The U.S. embassy and the [Kyrgyz] Foreign Ministry are exchanging opinions on this, but there are no discussions on keeping the base." The Kyrgyz Parliament votes on the decision next week.

A suicide bomber killed himself and wounded seven at a checkpoint on Pakistan's Khyber Pass. Security forces suspect he was trying to get to a bigger bridge, which army engineers are repairing after it was damaged by a bomb earlier this week.

Judge Susan Crawford, overseeing the military commissions process at the Guantanamo Bay detention centre, has halted the last ongoing trial. She overruled a judge who ordered the continuation of hearings over a suspect in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest on US Foreign Policy (4 February)

Latest Post: US-Russia Relations - A Grand Obama Bargain on Nuclear Warheads?
Latest Post: Secret US-Iran Talks This Week?
Latest Post: US Military to Obama on Afghanistan: Make a Decision Now

Current Obamameter Reading: Distant Clouds, Local Storms

10:30 p.m. The British Council has suspended all operations in Iran after visas were denied to British staff and local employees were summoned to President Ahmadinejad's office and ordered to resign from their posts.

8 p.m. Red Alert of the Day. Isaac Ben Israel, a Member of the Knesset, has declared that Israel has a year in which to attack Iran before Tehran has a nuclear bomb: Ben Israel, a former general and senior defence official, said, "Last resort means when you reach the stage when everything else failed. When is this? Maybe a year, give or take."

Meanwhile, Prime Ministerial candidate Benjamin Netanyahu told a conference that Iran poses "the gravest challenge Israel has faced since the War of Independence in 1948. We will work on all levels to neutralise this danger." (cross-posted from Israel-Gaza-Palestine thread)

3:25 p.m. We've posted a separate entry on the reports of an Obama proposal to reduce US and Russian warheads by 80 percent.

2:50 p.m. Carrots and Sticks. Only a day after Moscow's provision of incentives helped persuade Kyrgyzstan to end the lease on the US airbase in that country, the Russian Foreign Ministry has stated:

We positively reacted to the request of the United States for the transit through Russia of goods and materials to Afghanistan. We will be flexible in many other ways which will support our joint success in Afghanistan -- that would be the basic school of thinking from which we will proceed.

2:40 p.m. Karzai Strikes Back. The Afghan President, amidst stories that the US military is prepared to "ditch" him as part of the US surge, has fought back with criticism of American military operations:

Our demands are clear and they are that house searches of Afghans, arrests of Afghans and civilian casualties must cease. And they (U.S. and NATO countries) are naturally putting on pressure to make us silent and retract from this claim. This is not possible.

Karzai's comments follow a meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, who expressed his concern at the civilian death toll. The UN said on Tuesday that 2100 civilians had been killed in 2008, a 40 percent rise from the previous case, and added that 700 had died at the hands of Afghan and foreign forces. Last week NATO claimed only 90 civilians had been killed by Afghan/foreign military action.



2:25 p.m. Potentially significant news from Iran. Former President Mohammad Khatami, according to family and friends, will stand as a candidate in this spring's Presidential election.

12:45 p.m. Pakistani Taliban have released 29 policemen that they captured (see 9:10 a.m.) in fighting in the Swat Valley.

12:25 p.m. The battle over the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan (see 6 a.m.) is heating up. The American Embassy is insisting that it has received no formal notification that the Kyrgyz Government wishes to close the base, and talks are continuing on its future. The Kyrgyz Government has sent Parliament a decree on closure, however, and Parliamentary debate could begin on Thursday.

The base hosts approximately 1,000 military personnel from the US, Spain, and France and 650 U.S. and Kyrgyz contractors.

12:15 p.m. Iraqi authorities are investigating allegations, raised by tribal parties the day after the provincial elections, of serious voter fraud in Anbar province.

9:10 a.m. Pakistani Taliban claim to have captured 30 policemen in fighting in the Swat Valley. Insurgents have fired on NATO trucks, destroying nine vehicles.

8:30 a.m. The US has finally responded to North Korea's verbal provocations, which have declared the scrapping of all agreements with South Korea, the warning that the two countries are "on the brink of war", and Tuesday's announcement of Pyongyang's intention to test-fire a long-range missile.

The American military commander in South Korea, General Walter Sharp, warned to "stop the provocations that have been going on, whether it is declaring all the agreements to be no longer valid or missile technology that they continue to develop."

7:15 a.m. Iraq Developments. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, bolstered by apparent victories in provincial elections, has re-entered the battle over President Obama's plan to withdraw all US combat forces within 16 months. Al-Maliki has effectively weighed in on Obama's side,  and indeed given a subtle warning to the President that he should stick to his schedule despite the US military's opposition:

The new US Administration has sent messages on its plans to withdraw the US forces ahead of the agreed upon schedule which is something we consider to be good, and we are ready for any political or military commitment Iraq faces in the coming stage, stressing that the agreement on the pullout of the US forces has opened the door wide open to regaining Iraq's full sovereignty.

Meanwhile, The New York Times has a lengthy profile of another apparent election winner, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, which it considers a sign that those favouring a strong central Iraqi Government have triumphed prevailed in this week's vote.

7:05 a.m. Ethiopian forces, who had only withdrawn from Somalia last month, have reportedly returned to a border town. The regional leader of the Islamic Courts Union has threatened force if the troops do not leave.

6:50 a.m. An important economic signal from Obama. In discussions with British businessman and bankers, we've thought the possibility that the President will move to "protectionism" was exaggerated.

Yesterday Obama indicated on US television that he would set aside a "Buy American" provision, which requires that all iron and steel for infrastructure in his economic stimulus package must be made in the US: ""That is a potential source of trade wars that we can't afford at a time when trade is sinking all across the globe."

That message is likely to be reinforced by the President's visit on 19 February to Canada, which is understandably very worried about any US trade restrictions.

6:10 a.m. For the sake of the record, Al Qa'eda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has released another audio statement, focusing on Gaza. It's a ritual denuncation of "western collaboration" with Israel.

As readers know, we are more concerned with local situations than we are with Al Qa'eda, which we believe is increasingly peripheral to political and military conflict and even terrorism. It is interesting that al-Zawahiri apparently did not refer directly to the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan, preferring to use a more distant issue for support.

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 1 a.m. Washington): US news will be dominated today by the political embarrassment of the forced withdrawal of Tom Daschle, former Democratic leader in the Senate, as President Obama's nominee as Secretary of Health and Human Services and by the battle over Obama's economic stimulus plan.

Beyond that, however, there are mixed signs on the Central Asian horizon. Kyrgyzstan, and behind it Russia, have posed a challenge for the US with the demand for the closure of the American airbase, which is important for the US effort in Afghanistan.

Speaking of which, the Joint Chiefs of Staff are making another move to get the President to adopt their ideas for the Afghan fight --- we've posted separately on that battle. And more later on a continuing Enduring America exclusive, the possibility of secret US talks with Iran. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke on both Afghanistan and Iran, as well as Israel-Palestine, with British and German Foreign Ministers on Tuesday.

US-Russia Relations: A Grand Obama Bargain on Nuclear Warheads?

Just to put everything into the US-Russia mix, as we follow the manoeuvres on issues such as Afghanistan and Central Asia. The Times of London is blaring out an exclusive that the Obama Administration is proposing an 80 percent reduction of nuclear warheads by the US and Russia to 1000 each. This is in addition to the Obama decision to delay roll-out of the American missile defence plans.



The Times also features the response of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ivanov: "We welcome the statements from the new Obama Administration that they are ready to enter into talks and complete within a year, in this very confined timeframe, the signing of a new Russian-US treaty on the limitation of strategic attack weapons. We are also ready for this, undoubtedly."

The story from Washington appears to be based on a single "senior administration source", but it corresponds with other information that has come to the attention of Enduring America. A key unanswered question is whether the Obama Administration will tie this grand initiative to other issues, such as the Russian position on Iran and the competition in Central Asia, or whether it will keep the nuclear issue as a separate, distinct negotiation.