Mr Obama's World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (19 February)

Latest Post: Engagement with Iran? An Additional View of Professor Gary Sick’s Analysis
Latest Post: Muntazar al-Zaidi - Shoe-Throwing Trial Starts Today in Iraq

Evening Update (8:30 p.m.): Al Jazeera has a useful summary of the challenge facing the US military "surge", not from the enemy but from its allies. A two-day meeting of NATO defence ministers in Poland is highlighting that few, if any, members are eager to raise their troop levels beyond token commitments. Even John Hutton, the blowhard British Minister of Defence who talked about "a struggle against fanatics that...challenges our way of life in the same way the Nazis did", is saying it is up to other NATO countries to take the first step.

As Damascus makes a major play for leadership in Middle Eastern politics, the United Nations may revive an inconvenient incident. It is reporting additional nuclear particles from a Syrian facility bombed by Israel in September 2007 and noting that the particles cannot have come from Israeli missiles.

The Pentagon is playing for time after this morning's Parliamentary vote in Kyrgyzstan closing the US airbase within six months: "We continue to consider what we might be able to offer the (Kyrgyzstan) government but we're not prepared to stay at any price and we continue to look at other options that are available to us."



Afternoon Update (1:15 p.m.): The Afghanistan Foreign Ministry has tried to take advantage of President Obama's inclusion of Kabul in the US strategic review by claiming a lead role on issues of security, development, and reconstruction: "Since a new page has been opened with America and we have had the opportunity as an ally to raise our points, we are repeating them for we believe they are essential in bringing security."

Afghanistan will also be pressing the US to extend its operation against "sanctuaries" in Pakistan.

A series of roadside and car bombs have killed seven Iraqi soldiers and policemen and wounded more than 20 people.

North Korean military spokesmen welcome Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's forthcoming visit with the declaration: "[South Korea's] group of traitors should never forget that the Korean People's Army is fully ready for an all-out confrontation."

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 1 a.m. Washington): A Surge is Not a Surge. Now that President Obama has approved an additional 21,000 troops for Afghanistan this year, bringing the US force close to 60,000, the military are putting out the line that this is a long-term commitment. General David McKiernan, the commander of US and NATO forces in the country, emphasized, "This is not a temporary force uplift. It will need to be sustained for some period of time, for the next three to four to five years." While some units would be in place, especially in southern Afghanistan, by the summer, "Even with these additional forces,...2009 is going to be a tough year."

McKiernan then added a statement which, if anyone is watching carefully, exposes the difficulties of the surge which is more than a surge. The general cited the causes of turmoil as "three decades of low literacy rates and rampant poverty and violence". These would seem to require more than a show of US force, but McKiernan pressed on, "We do see, with these additional forces, an opportunity to break this stalemate, at least in terms of security conditions in the south."

Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has set up another test of the US strategy, calling on NATO allies to increase their military presence: "The [US] administration is prepared... to make additional commitments to Afghanistan, but there clearly will be expectations that the allies must do more as well." The call to arms may be met with less-than-enthusiastic responses: Italy said yesterday that it would send more 500 troops, and Georgia, angling to join NATO, has announced it will despatch 200. However, British Foreign Minister David Miliband stalled with the claim that there had been request for more UK forces. With Barack Obama in Canada today, it will be interesting to see how Ottawa, which has been on the front-line of the Afghan effort, responds.

The Kyrgyzstan Parliament is likely to deal another blow to US plans today when it approves the Government proposal to close the US Manas airbase, a key supply line for the military in Afghanistan.

Egypt has released the opposition leader Ayman Nour from detention because "health concerns". Nour was sentenced to five years on forgery charges in 2005, months after he finished second to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in elections. His case has been a prominent symbol for activists pressing for democratic reform and human rights.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (8 February)

Latest Post: Update on Obama v. The Military - Where Next in Afghanistan?
Latest Post: A New US Foreign Policy? The Biden Speech in Munich
Latest Post: Transcript of Joe Biden's Speech on Obama Foreign Policy

Current Obamameter: Settled

7:20 p.m. We've just offered, in a separate post, a latest view of the battle in Washington over the proposed "surge" in Afghanistan.

5:10 p.m. Message to Georgia: No, No, NATO. Following up his overtures to Russia on Saturday in his Munich speech, Vice President Joe Biden made it clear on Sunday that the Obama Administration would not be pushing Georgia's accession to NATO.

After meeting Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, Biden responded to a question about accession: "I'm in favor of Georgia's continued independence and autonomy. That is a decision for Georgia to make."

5:05 p.m. Important news out of Tehran: former President Mohammad Khatami has announced he will run in June's Presidential election.

4:35 p.m. And It Went So Well in Baghdad. President Obama's envoy to Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, has said that victory there will be "much tougher" than in Iraq. He told the Munich Security Conference, ""I have never seen anything like the mess we have inherited."

Two US troops and two Afghans were killed by a bomb in Helmand Province on Sunday.



Afternoon Update (4:15 p.m. GMT; 11:15 a.m. Washington): Another bit of publicity around the Afghanistan battle. National Security Advisor James Jones has told a German newspaper that a decision on strategy will be needed by the NATO summit on 5 April. Jones added platitudes such as "answers will not be unilateral but multilateral" and the insistance that NATO and the Afghan Government must stop the drug trade as the "economic fuel of the insurgency".

Decoding? Jones is flagging up the duties that US military, as it "surges", would like to pass on to European partners. That's especially pertinent in Germany, where there is public unease about taking on the hard-line enforcement of a drugs ban. Indeed, it is no coincidence that it was German media that leaked the unwise statement of an American military commander last week that troops should have the right to shoot drug producers on sight, whether or not they are connect to the Taliban.

On the Russian front, Moscow has welcomed Joe Biden's call "to reset the button" of relations. Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said, "It is obvious the new U.S. administration has a very strong desire to change and that inspires optimism,"

4 p.m.  Just back from recording for Al Jazeera's Inside Story and an engaging discussion on the Biden speech and US foreign policy with Daveed Gartenstein-Ross of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Rosemary Hollis of City University, London. Airtime is 5:30 p.m. GMT.

1 p.m. Al Jazeera English is now focusing on Afghan President Hamid Karzai's address to the Munich Security Conference. karzai has made a big political play, setting out a strategy of reaching out to the "moderate Taliban" for discussions. This is not a new position for Karzai, but in the midst of the US consideration of a military "surge", the timing of this makes it an important intervention.

Interesting that AJE is framing this as a US v. Afghanistan battle in which "the US will get its way" on the troop build-up, missing the emering story of division within the White House.

We'll follow up later, after speaking with AJE, about the latest from Washington. It appears that President Obama is holding out against immediate approval of the military's proposals because of the lack of an "exit strategy".

8:45 a.m. So how intensive is the Obama Administration's spin campaign on Afghanistan and Pakistan? In the same New York Times that tells Afghan leader Hamid Karzai he could soon be yesterday's man, there is a loving profile of Obama envoy Richard Holbrooke, complete with family photos and Superman rhetoric:

You have a problem that is larger than life. To deal with it you need someone who’s larger than life.

8:33 a.m. The New York Times has a dramatic article on the widening gap between the US and Afghan leader Hamid Karzai, adding weight to the speculation that Washington may try to "ditch" its erstwhile choice to run the country. Fed by inside information from Obama Adminsitration officials, the article opens with an account of how Vice President Joe Biden walked out on a dinner with Karzai last month after the Afghan leader denied any corruption in his Government:

President Obama said he regarded Mr. Karzai as unreliable and ineffective. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said he presided over a “narco-state.” The Americans making Afghan policy, worried that the war is being lost, are vowing to bypass Mr. Karzai and deal directly with the governors in the countryside.

Morning Update (8:30 a.m. GMT; 3:30 a.m. Washington): Pretty quiet overnight, so we've focused this morning, in a separate entry, on an analysis of Joe Biden's speech to the Munich Security Conference, setting out the "new tone" (and, for us, troubling cases) in US foreign policy. We've also posted the transcript of the speech.

Scott Lucas of Enduring America will be appearing on Al Jazeera English at 2 p.m. GMT to discuss the Obama/Biden approach.