The Latest from Iran (10 February): Mousavi, Pink Floyd, & 22 Bahman

2325 GMT: That's it for today. We'll be back at 0600 GMT. Look forward to seeing you then.

2315 GMT: What's Your Punchline? Looking for a joke to end the evening. Here's the set-up line, courtesy of Press TV: "A senior Iranian commander has announced that the country has developed a new system to distract missiles."

2310 GMT: On the Labour Front. Mansour Osanloo, the leader of the Tehran bus drivers union, has been transferred to Solitary Ward Number 1 in Gohardasht Prison, also known as the “doghouse”.

NEW Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman
UPDATED Iran Analysis: The Rafsanjani “Ultimatum” to the Supreme Leader
Iran Feature: Human Rights Round-up (1-7 February 2010)
The Latest from Iran (9 February): 48 Hours to Go

2225 GMT: Taking Away Karroubi's Protection? In an interview with Radio Farda, Mohammad Taghi Karroubi, Mehdi Karroubi’s son, says that several former Revolutionary Guards, wartime commanders, and family members of martyrs who had volunteered for protect Mehdi Karroubi on 22 Bahman have been called in for questioning and have not yet gone home. He says that they have probably been arrested.

2214 GMT: State Media Off-Line. On the eve of 22 Bahman, cyber-warriors have taken down the website of the Islamic Republic News Agency.

2200 GMT: Lots of Internet fuss tonight that Iran's telecommunications agency has declared it will shut down Google Mail as Iran prepares to roll out a national e-mail service. For some reason, I can't get hold of this as a major development rather than as possible bluster for 22 Bahman --- is the suspension technically possible? And how many Iranians would it affect?

2150 GMT: More interesting eve of 22 Bahman articles: Jason Shams, an Iranian-American who was involved with the Green Movement in Tehran up to November 2009, offers an insider's view of the protests in The Daily Beast.

And Edward Yeranian has a useful preview for the Voice of America --- Enduring America pops up to contribute to the analysis.

2145 GMT: Back from a break to post the latest on the Rafsanjani-Supreme Leader story: the former President's website has an interview in which Rafsanjani makes cursory references around Ayatollah Khamenei and a more pointed reference to the "15 Khordaad" uprising of June 1963. A subtle signal of support for tomorrow's protest?

1925 GMT: Mr Modesty. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is a master of understatement:

"After 1400 years the Islamic Revolution in Iran… by offering a new method of social governance shone in front of secularism and liberalism that are the cause of all social problems and showed man the path to salvation.”

1915 GMT: The Cutting Edge. Prominent Twitter activist oxfordgirl is profiled in The Guardian of London today.

1900 GMT: Trial and Punishment. An Iranian activist updates that, after eight months in prison, the head of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mohsen Mirdamadi, finally went on trial. He denied all charges.

The activist also notes that prominent human rights attorney Mohamad Oliyayifard has been sentenced to one year in prison.

1750 GMT: The US Treasury has extended sanctions against the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, freezing the foreign assets of a commander, General Rostam Qasemi, was blacklisted, and four firms --- Fater Engineering, Imensazen Consultant Engineers, Makin and Rahab Institutes --- linked to the Revolutionary Guards' construction company.

1635 GMT: So Much for "Foreign Coverage". A few weeks Iranian state media loudly proclaimed that more than 100 foreign news organisations had been licensed to cover 22 Bahman. Well, here is what they get to cover:

An official coordinating the media [said] that reporters and photographers were allowed to cover only the speech of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the historic Azadi (Freedom) Square in southwestern Tehran, and not the traditional street marches across the city.

1625 GMT: Twitter Activism. An Iranian activist sends word of a special initiative for 22 Bahman:

"We are doubling the fun on Twitter in co-operation with the Venezuelan resistance. We are planning to tweet up a storm with supporters of Iran and Venezuela both tweeting in mutual support, using a combined hashtag: #IranVzla - in addition to any other tags we might use. The tweet campaign will be starting from 12:00 noon Venezuela/20:00 Iran (1630 GMT)."

1613 GMT: The Purge of the Journalists. Reporters Sans Frontières claims 400 journalists have left the country since June 2009 and 2000 journalists are jobless.

1610 GMT: The parents of blogger Agh Bahman have been arrested. Last week Bahman's sisters were detained.

1530 GMT: Campaigners for Human Rights and Democracy in Iran claim that prisoners in Gohardasht Prison rioted this morning, taking control of a cellblock, stripping naked the warden and forcing him to flee.

1520 GMT: Rumour of Day. The Paris-based Intelligence Online claims:

Officially, the Iranian Vice President Esfandiar Rahim Mashai [Note: Rahim Mashai is a former Vice President and current Chief of Staff to the President] was in Geneva February 1 to attract investors to the Kish Island Persian Gulf Sea Project. But according to our information, Mashai also took part in secret meetings with American officials, just days before Iran announced its intention to enrich uranium by 20% instead of the current 3.5%. Mashai's presence in Geneva coincided with the presence at the United Nations' headquarters in the city of the large delegation of American nuclear specialists who had come to finalize the new Start treaty with the Russians.

1440 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written an open letter to the Council supervising Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, critiquing the coverage of the state media.

1435 GMT: The Tajik Flop. Looks like the regime's attempts to use former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik for propaganda points (see 1130 GMT), releasing him temporarily to broadcast about "foreign intervention" and heartfelt support of the Supreme Leader, has backfired. Khabar Online goes out of its way to deny that Tajik's statement was recorded or that he was drugged before going on air.

1425 GMT: Pre-22 Bahman Reading. The Newest Deal has an excellent overview on the eve of the big day, and Persian Umpire gives a perspective from Tehran:

I don’t remember being as freaked out as I am now before any other demonstration. Caffeine and Nicotine are my best friends these days. Part of the reason is the unpredictability of 22 Bahman, in terms of turnout on both sides, the regime’s reaction, and the outcome. I have a small window for talking about this past week as internet connections are fading away, so I’ll skimp on details, but here’s how things are, a sort of “word on the street is”, from my usual sources (butchers, intellectuals, businessmen, grocers, cab drivers, artists, old, young).

1350 GMT: Mothers of Mourning Arrested. An Iranian activist, claiming the Mothers of Mourning as the source, gives the names of 19 members of the group who were detained on Monday.

1345 GMT: Confirmation. Parleman News is now carrying the story of Mohsen Aminzadeh's release.

1225 GMT: Aminzadeh Released. EA sources report that Mohsen Aminzadeh, Deputy Foreign Minister in the Khatami Government, has just been freed from Evin Prison, possibly on a short-term release.

1210 GMT: New Information on Rafsanjani-Khamenei Meeting. We will have a full update this afternoon, but an EA correspondent reports that the Rafsanjani "ultimatum" meeting with the Supreme Leader took place on Monday. Rafsanjani did raise the specific case of Alireza Beheshti; however, he also argued that Khamenei should intervene to free all political prisoners.

The correspondent also emphasises that the Rafsanjani meeting should be seen in the context of the earlier encounter between Khamenei and Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, in which Mousavi-Ardebili declared his disappointment with the Supreme Leader's post-election leadership.

1155 GMT: Mousavi at Rally? A reliable EA source says that, at this point, Mir Hossein Mousavi is intending to participate in tomorrow's march, although the location is being protected for security reasons. These plans, however, may change.

1140 GMT: Peyke Iran reports that former political prisoners have been banned from demonstrating on 22 Bahman.

1130 GMT: The Tajik Mystery. Islamic Republic News Agency is now featuring last night's televised statement by former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik.

As we reported last night, Tajik was taken directly from Evin Prison to IRIB television for a 10:30 p.m. broadcast. In his statement, he declared that the protests were fostered by foreign groups from the US and Israel who tried to destroy the "unity" of Iran. He also put great emphasis on the authority of the Supreme Leader and the system of velayat-e-faqih.

That is quite a conversion for someone who was one of the senior advisors to Mir Hossein Mousavi up to his detention in early January. And here's some more food for thought: Tajik, like fellow advisor Alireza Beheshti, was released from Evin but only for a short time.

Interpretation? If Tajik does not make last night's statement, then he definitely returns to prison. Now there is a chance that he may remain free.

1050 GMT: Tajbakhsh Sentence Reduced. Fars News, quoting the lawyer for Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, says that an Iranian appeal court has reduced Tajbakhsh's prison term for espionage from 15 years to five years. Tajbakhsh was arrested in July and sentenced in October.

1015 GMT: We Won't Leave Those Kids Alone. It's Iran police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam taking the lead in issuing warnings today:

We are closely watching the activities of the sedition movement and several people who were preparing to disrupt the February 11 rallies were arrested....There will be no worries in this regard. We are fully prepared for holding a safe and glorious rally.

Ahmadi-Moghaddam declared that police, the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij Islamic militia were "ready for any possible incident on February 11 and they will let no one create insecurity".

0905 GMT: 22 Bahman MTV. Performed by Blurred Vision and directed by Babak Payami, "Hey, Ayatollah, Leave Those Kids Alone":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIP38eq-ywc[/youtube]

0855 GMT: Pressure on the Government. Ayatollah Dastgheib has criticised the "un-Islamic behaviour" of the Basij militia, and Ayatollah Ostadi has attacked the ideas of President Ahmadinejad and his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

And the pro-Larijani Khabar Online will not let up: a series of "guest blogs" featured on the website call for respect of the press and warn that "self-made wars" serve only Iran's enemies and that some "will use every pretext to prevent criticism".

0845 GMT: Pressure on IRIB. The dispute between Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting and Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Imam, continues. Following the publication ofKhomeini's letter of complaint over the "censoring" of his grandfather's speeches, a reformist MP claims that many of his colleagues want to withdraw their support from IRIB and an ally of Ali Larijani, Ahmad Pournejati, has attacked the head of the broadcaster, Ezzatollah Zarghami.

0830 GMT: The "Mohareb" Sentences. Press TV --- curiously, almost a day after the news broke --- has repeated that one detainee has been sentenced to death and eight given long prison sentences for their "mohareb" (war against God) activities on Ashura. The Iranian regime had threatened to execute all nine.

0810 GMT: The Professors Write Khamenei. Iran Green Voice publishes a signed letter from 116 academics at Tarbiat Modarres University in Tehran, calling on the Supreme Leader to deal with the "cruelty" that has arisen within the Iranian system.

0805 GMT: Karroubi's Confirmation. Mehdi Karroubi's office has just announced that the cleric will be demonstrating tomorrow and has repeated the call for Iranian people to state their demands firmly but calmly. He is reportedly joining the march from Sadeghieh Square to Azadi Square at 10 a.m. local time (0630 GMT).

0800 GMT: Ebrahim Yazdi, former foreign minister and leader of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been moved from prison to hospital. Yazdi, detained since Ashura, has been in poor health for months.

0745 GMT: Less than 24 hours to 22 Bahman, and the report of Rafsanjani's "ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader, including the snap analysis from our correspondent, is still provoking lots of comment and speculation. Beyond that event, we  have posted an analysis of the political situation on the eve of Thursday's demonstrations.

Comments

[S]

116 University professors sent a letter to Khamenei http://www.kaleme.org/1388/11/21/klm-11197

[ange paris]

Great wall in china in green :

http://www.whereismyvote.fr/

Iranian embassy in Paris becomes Green :

http://www.rtl.fr/fiche/5932842365/Enquete-RTL-les-murs-de-l-ambassade-d-Iran-a-Paris-tagges-par-des-activistes.html

[Doug]

     I wrote a poem last summer but I never knew if it made any sense, and then to make matters worse, a friend translated it into French, but I don't speak French at all so I don't know if the translation makes any sense or even if it sounds OK. So here are both:
Waiting For a Song

So many silences in Iran.
Even birds have omens.

Came for an avian concert
on a walk
on a lark, but

thirty birds
pecked at a dog
who whimpered
then chirped

All the birds
growled at me,
barked like Basiji.

Came for an avian concert
for a song, but

the dog's howling
was off-key
and the birds
dropped sticks
on the wires of a fence
like a dulcimer.

seems the birds have lost
their concert master,
imitate predators.

concert canceled
in a breeze

I carried a feather home to compose,
to wait for the rain, and
the thunder of the people

Dans l'attente d'une chanson

Tant de silence, en Iran!
Meme les oiseaux font des présages.
J'étais venu pour écouter
Leur concert,
Pour simplement
Me promener
Mais une trentaine d'oiseaux
Fondirent du bec sur un chien
Qui, après avoir gémi,
S'est mis à gazouiller aussi.
Alors, grognant après moi,
Les oiseaux ont aboyé
A la manière des Bassij.
J'étais venu pour écouter
Les oiseaux faire un concert,
Venu trouver une chanson.
Mais le grognement des chiens n'était pas sur la bonne clef
Les oiseaux firent tomber leurs batons sur les cordes barbelées
D'une cithare.
On dirait qu'ils ont perdu leur chef d'orchestre, les oiseaux,
Qu'en prédateurs, ils ont choisi, avec la légèreté du vent,
De remettre leur concert
J'ai rapporté à la maison, une de leurs plumes pour composer,
Dans l'attente de la pluie,
Dans l'attente que le peuple
Fasse éclater son tonnerre.

[Live Updates am Tag davor &laq]

[...] am Tag davor 10. Februar 2010 — Thomas v. der Osten-Sacken Eunduringamerica mit wichtigen Updates und Informationen am Tag vor den erwarteten Massenprotesten. Veröffentlicht in News, Vor Ort. Kommentar [...]

[raoul michelin]

The so-called Iranian Cyber Army has hacked the web site of Mohsen Sazegara. How panic-stricken and terrified is this regime?

[Peter]

Weather in Tehran for 22 Bahman, according to weather.com: after rainy day today and some more tonight, Thursday predicted to be partly cloudy/mostly sunny with a high near 50 degree F (10 degrees C).

[ange paris]

Dear ARTESH
Does anyone hear the scream of iranian people ? It's your duty to defend and help " our" people; tomorrow will be a great day to get rid of this dictatorship; send your crack unit to cut the loud speakers and be next to people to defend them; Iranian Artesh has always been the best one, your people need your help; " Zendeh Bad Arteshe Iran " . V

[ange paris]

An expert of AIEA has said that technically, Iran is able to produce military uranium

http://www.iranfocus.com/fr/nucleaire/techniquement-liran-pourrait-fabriquer-de-luranium-de-qualite-militaire-expert-07705.html

[Catherine]

Strongly worded Op-Ed by MAZIAR BAHARI in the NYT - open letter to Sl, 'Let My Colleagues Go'
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/10/opinion/10iht-edbahari.html

[Catherine]

RE Diaspora's comment: http://enduringamerica.com/2010/02/10/iran-the-eve-of-22-bahman/comment-page-1/#comment-26963

Here's a 22 Bahman Near You Event Finder made by Austin Heap and posted on united4iran:
http://united4iran.com/2010/02/22-bahman-near-you-event-finder/

[Catherine]

Iran rewards Basij militia with political clout
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hgJwTH2l_QS2mD9pzuKHWngtoQigD9DP6KF00

[Catherine]

WSJ - Iranian Authorities Brace for Thursday Protests
http://tinyurl.com/yg94uo5

[Arshama]

Catherine,

Thanks a lot for the WSJ article. I propose this headline: Who is afraid of 22 Bahman?

ma bishomarim :-)

[Pedestrian]

http://aghbahman.blogspot.com/2010/02/blog-post_2577.html

agh bahman's mom and dad arrested too (his sisters were arrested last week).

[Greeny]

1530 GMT: “Campaigners for Human Rights and Democracy in Iran claim that prisoners in Gohardasht Prison rioted this morning, taking control of a cellblock, stripping naked the warden and forcing him to flee.”

Campaigners for Human Rights and Democracy in Iran is now saying that the prison governor has given in to the demands of the prisoners, one of which was the sacking of the warden of cellblock 1

http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13323

[Doug]

Catherine 9. Incredible the difference between the words and deeds of Khomeini. Dangerous times again with many words spoken. With this declaration by a journalist, may the world media will be inspired to be thorough and fair and diligent.

[Doug]

typo. sorry, meant "maybe"

[Doug]

Catherine 12. The Wsj article is a little dilute on the determination of the protesters. It seems to repeat the obvious, easiest info it can find. No analysis? or did I miss something? Or maybe I'm spoiled by EA's better coverage?

[Doug]

Ange Paris 7. Is it possible for the army to show up? They've been quiet all this time, and wasn't there just one incident a long time ago when several soldiers in isolation were arrested trying to go to a demo on their own? Has there been anything more organized?

[Doug]

Ange Paris 2. The Chinese empire thought the Great Wall would keep them safe forever, but it was breached. Perhaps something similar can happen here.

[ange paris]

Doug 19
Few months ago, I don't remember when, they said "we are with our people etc.." warning islamic regime via several statements, and it was so hot that on EA we had almost 70 posts about this subject; now I think they could show up their solidarity with our people, if it's not for now, I don't understand for when they have made their statements !! Yallah Arteshe Ghayour, forward, march and good luck, think to your sacred duty ! we are with you !

[Arshama]

@ 1635 Foreign Media Coverage

Scott,

With all due respect, I think these foreign reporters should be labeled as "embedded journalists" ;-)

I wished, I could join this peaceful Green war: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCnz6B_Ohlk

ma bishomarim V

Arshama

[ange paris]

"Freezing the foreign assets of four firms connected to the IRGC’s", great sanctions, bravo Mr Obama!

[ange paris]

amazing video :

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=288160447392

[ange paris]

An other one:
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=107779222572963&ref=mf