The Latest from Iran (5 February): Into the Tunnel

2140 GMT: Persian2English reports that more than a thousand relatives of detainees gathered outside Evin Prison to commemorate Arbaeen, the 40th day of mourning after the religious occasion of Ashura. Demonstrators offered prayers and chanted “Allahu Akhbar (God is great)”.

1925 GMT: Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has issued a statement demanding the freeing of all political prisoners before 22 Bahman. Rahnavard, an academic at Tehran University, points to the problems that women have experienced under the regime and praises their passion on issues of freedom and equality.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Claimed Protest in Southern Iran (1 February)
Latest Iran Video: What Does the Iranian Public Really Think? (4 February)
Iran Analysis: The Missing Numbers in the Economy
Iran Analysis: How Turkey Can Break the Nuclear Stalemate
Iran Spam, Spam, Lovely Spam: Mass E-mails, Old Polls, and “Analysis”
The Latest from Iran (4 February): The Relay of Opposition

1830 GMT: Catching Up. Highlighting a story that our readers noted this afternoon, Hassan Rassouli, a deputy of the Baran Foundation, headed by former President Mohammad Khatami, and Abolfazl Ghadiani, a member of central committee of the Mohajedin of Islamic Revolution party, were freed last night on bail.

1815 GMT: Altering the Imam. Rah-e-Sabz reports that Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, has written the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, to complain about the "censoring" of his grandfather's speech. Ayatollah Khomeini's words have allegedly been adjusted to present a more favourable view of the Government in the run-up to the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution.

1730 GMT: That Tehran Friday Prayer. Press TV finally has a summary of Ayatollah Emami Kashani's address looking forward to the 22 Bahman demonstrations. He warned, "Some individuals may try to infiltrate into the lines of people by chanting deviant slogans," but Iranians must be vigilant against “those trying to derail the [Islamic] Revolution's path".

Frankly, I prefer our one-sentence report (1320 GMT).

1500 GMT: Greetings from Beirut. Yesterday we noted that 90 Lebanese intellectuals have issued a statement of support for the opposition in Iran. Persian2English provides a translation:

They tried so hard to destroy our memory and our cities. But you can see today that we shout for freedom (from oppression) from Beirut to Tehran with one voice and one heart....We, the democratically-minded Lebanese people, announce our support for the the movement of the people of Iran for freedom, democracy, and pluralism.

We listen to Tehran today, we understand its language – the language of freedom. We notice the scars on its proud body. It is from this position that we stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the freedom-loving people and the Green Movement of Iran and its political prisoners against the murderers.

We share your sorrow and we seek the same justice of all human beings, no matter what language they speak.

1320 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani keeping it real today by repeating over and over: "Hey, protesters, don't ruin 22 Bahman for the rest of us."

1310 GMT: Breaking Cover. This may be the most forceful statement from a British Government official during the post-election crisis. Foreign Minister David Miliband has just posted on his blog:

1 February marked the start of the 10 Days of Dawn, commemorating the return to Iran of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 and the victory of the Islamic Revolution on 11 February. In a blatant attempt to cow the opposition movement ahead of the 31st anniversary of the Revolution, the Iranian regime has resorted to a chilling campaign of threats and intimidation in the form of mass arrests, executions and calls for hangings to quell demonstrations. Reports that nine people will be executed imminently in connection with the post election unrest are utterly deplorable.

This in response to peaceful calls for democracy, human rights and fundamental freedoms. These are not western prerogatives, but universal rights to which we are all entitled. We in the international community will continue to speak out in defence of those who are killed, arrested or brutalised in the name of free speech and freedom of expression. We have a right to do so, and a duty. The people of Iran have legitimate concerns which their government must address. Such brutality and hateful rhetoric can only serve to further erode whatever remains of the fragile bond of trust between the Iranian regime and its people.

1245 GMT: A Forerunner of 22 Bahman? We have been following reports all morning that protests in Lar, a town of about 70,000 in southern Iran, started on Monday and have been continuing all week. An account of the latest demonstrations has now been posted, and we are putting up the claimed video.

(A report from an activist distances the protest from post-election conflict: it was "apparently caused because part of Lar was attached to a neighboring town by decree".)

1230 GMT: One Who Is Free. Amidst the arrests of journalists (see 0720 GMT), Mahsa Hekmat of Etemaad has been released after 34 days in detention.

1000 GMT: Detaining Families. We have had general reports of the regime arresting family members as well as specific activists. Well, here is apparent confirmation of one case:

Yashar Darolshafa was arrested last night after his home was raided in Tehran. His current whereabouts are unknown. Darolshafa is completing a Master’s degree in social welfare studies at the University of Tehran... [and] is the former secretary of a reformist student organization at the International Qazvin University and a leftist student activist.

Following the arrest of Yashar Darolshafa last night, his mother and his brother were also arrested at their home today.

0945 GMT: On the Labour Front. Iran Labor Report writes about a three-day sit-in strike by 150 workers for the municipality of Andimeshk, in southwest Iran, over unpaid back-wages and health-insurance expenses. One of the strikers set himself on fire in protest and is now recovering in hospital. The article has extracts from a radio interview with one of the protesters.

0900 GMT: The "Siege" of Qoba Mosque. Footage has been posted of claimed damage and injuries after Wednesday's pro-Government rally outside Qoba Mosque in Shiraz:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wm0Fd5bm4SE[/youtube]

0805 GMT: Not-Hysterical-At-All Statement of Day. Video of one of our favourite US talking heads, Charles Krauthammer, as he gets agitated about the Iran rocket launch: “If you can put a mouse into space, you can put a nuke in New York, in principle."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJKIExudYqw[/youtube]

0755 GMT: MovieFail. The Fajr Festival, Iran's premiere international gathering for film, has already been beset by withdrawals of leading Iranian and foreign directors. Now it has gotten a satirical thumbs-down from Ayande News, which has presented its own "Golden Barberry" (the equivalent of the "Golden Raspberry" in the US) awards for not-so-glorious movies.

0740 GMT: Beyond Detention to Death. Persian2English, drawing from the International Committee Against Executions, lists 56 political prisoners at risk of execution in Iran.

0730 GMT: Cyber Ups and Downs. The Amir Kabir university student site, a leading source for information in the post-election crisis, is still out of service this morning after a cyber-attack. However, a new Green website, Mizan Khabar, has been launched.

0720 GMT: And On the Detention Front. To back up our initial analysis this morning of the regime's crackdown, we note this from the Committee to Protect Journalists:

Iranian authorities are now holding at least 47 journalists in prison....At least 26 journalists have been jailed in the last two months alone, CPJ found.

The number of jailed journalists is the highest CPJ has recorded in a single country since December 1996, when it documented 78 imprisonments in Turkey.

0715 GMT: On the Economic Front. The Italian company ENI is declaring that it will cease activities in Iran. We are monitoring to see whether this is just an immediate posture, linked to Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's loud denunciation of the Iranian Government this week, or a definite plan.

0645 GMT: By the end of Thursday, it seemed --- as it did just before other demonstrations such as the 13 Aban (4 November) and Ashura (27 December) protests --- that Iran (or at least what I could see inside Iran) was going into a tunnel. The regime's dedicated effort to break any possibility of a mass gathering on 22 Bahman (11 February), the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, meant an escalation in the already high level of crackdown, with widespread reports of arrests of activists. Internet communications are now being slowed, if not stopped.

Still, protest is now sufficiently established to ensure at least a flashlight-glimpse. Beyond the assertions in Washington of "What the Iranian People Really Think" (see separate video), we have posted claimed video of a public demonstration in southern Iran on Monday and a workers' strike on Wednesday. There are also the latest official figures on the Iranian economy, which --- perhaps inadvertently, with their gaps as well as the published numbers --- point to serious structural issues and even "decline".

Comments

[ange paris]

"Not-Hysterical-At-All Statement of Day. One of our favourite US talking heads, Charles Krauthammer, gets agitated about the Iran rocket launch: “If you can put a mouse into space, you can put a nuke in New York, in principle.”
I agree with Mr Krauthammer; When AN raves saying :
- Usa attacked Irak because they knew that the hidden imam will appear there, and it was only to avoid his apparition
-or, the earthquake in Haiti was caused by USA trying a new weapon especially created against Iran.
we can expect, from this brainless man who lead our poor people, this kind of decision, what has Mr Krauthammer said !

[Afshin]

@ ange paris

I think HYSTERIA is the word of the day !!

Saying one thing about Americans doing whatever in Haiti is not quite the same as dropping an atomic bomb on NYC. Especially an Atomic Bomb you have not yet developed to put on a rocket you have not yet aquired, that needs techniques you have not yet mastered.... and so on and so forth...

Besides that rethoric used by politicians should almost never be taken literally as they are usually part of a international game and are said with other intentions...

By the time Iran has this ability the second succesor of A.N has allready retired let alone Ahmadi himself...

[ange paris]

Afshin
Their " species" are very strange based on superstitions; they believe in apocalypse and apparition of hidden imam following on from; with a simple "dream" during their sleep, they can cause this apocalypse, thus gaining time for his apparition; only with a normal bomb , not the atomic one ! they can do it .

[Catherine]

RE 0755 GMT: MovieFail. The Fajr Festival,

Strangely enough, there hasn't been a TheatreFail this year - and that's a good thing. Just check out the amazing production people are flocking to see. I can't believe the authorities have allowed this.

"Will the truth triumph over superstition and dogma?

That was the question hovering in a Tehran theater Sunday afternoon as 14 men and women in black clothes circled around the astronomer Galileo Galilei in director Dariush Farhang's sometimes nightmarish, politically loaded rendition of the 1943 play "The Life of Galileo" by German playwright Bertolt Brecht."

Read on: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2010/01/iran-tehran-staging-of-galileo-reflects-a-nations-struggle-against-ignorance-ancientness.html

[Greeny]

Re. 0755 GMT: MovieFail.

Both Ayande News and Khabar Onine are claiming that the host of the Fajr Film Festival awards ceremony gave the award for best soundtrack to a film he had produced instead of the real winner. Basically, he ignored what was in the winner envelope and called out his own film. Then the sound artist of his own film came on the stage and took the award. The following day the festival organizers took back the award from the cheat winner and gave it to the actual winner.

http://ayandenews.com/news/18282/
http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-41882.aspx

Ayande News is saying that there were irregularities with two other awards that were later corrected.

I wonder with the exception of this and news of the protests of reporters during the festival anyone took notice of anything else about it this year.

It looks like order is breaking down everywhere and Kordanism is branching out into film festivals too.

[Arshama]

@ 0805 GMT: Not-Hysterical-At-All Statement of Day

With all due respect, I would propose this Sir changing his name from Krauthammer to "Sabzi-Hammer".

[Arshama]

Scott,

Thank you so much for this good news from Larestan. We should call these brave people "Dalirane Larestan", just as the famous "Dalirane Tangestan", who resisted against the invasion of British forces in late 19th century: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tangestan_County

A part of this old TV serial is available here, stunning parallels...
http://irannegah.com/Video.aspx?id=955

Arshama

[Catherine]

Iran Avalanche Kills 8; 3 Foreigners Among 49 Rescued

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- An avalanche in northern Iran killed eight people, while 49 others were rescued, including three foreigners.

The incident happened yesterday between Shemshak and Dizin, popular ski resorts near Karaj, a city 40 kilometers (25 miles) west of Tehran, the state-run Mehr news agency said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awn0zyXi9Vcc

[Catherine]

Munich Security Conference Opens .... with all the usual suspects in attendance.
Look for some serious horse trading behind the scenes with a/o about Iran and China: http://www.rferl.org/content/China_Makes_Debut_At_Munich_Security_Conference/1949497.html

[Arshama]

@ 0720 GMT Protect Journalists

Appeal of expatriate journalists like Alireza Nourizadeh, Massoud Behnoud, Nushabeh Amiri, Nikahang Kowsar etc. to foreign journalists, invited for 22 Bahman, to solidarise with their arrested 45 Iranian colleagues and to reveal the real nature of this regime, which will stage fabricated rallies at special locations in order to deturn world's attention of the protesters: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13110

[Arshama]

Two others freed:
Hassan Rassouli, deputy of Baran Foundation (Khatami), and Abolfazl Ghadiani, member of Mujaheddin Enghelab central comittee, were freed last night on bail.
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/9513/

[Hossein]

The Fajr Festival like all other stuff the government puts on is now full of lies and imperfections and put-up jobs. That is the whole of the IRI. Period.

[danial]

Look at the mad support for Khamenei:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKSj7AdQ8Q0

How did it come to this?!

[mukharbish]

re 1245 - Lar protest: the gravel-voiced cleric addressing the crowd in one of the videos you've posted appears to be talking about a demand for the area to be made into a province. It seems that it's not directly connected to 22 Bahman and the green mvt...

It could however be a sign of govt authority eroding, especially in the kind of provincial area that has supposedly been a source of popular backing for ahmadinejad in the past. (The cleric says towards the end of the video that he doesn't trust the words of any govt official; the crowd responds with 'allahu akbar'. ) Perhaps a parallel can be drawn with the recentish incident in Sirjan where the crowd intervened to prevent an execution, was it in december? Alternatively it could be that these kinds of events have been occurring even before the election and have been underreported because of their location.

[Arshama]

@ MovieFail

Even Khabaronline speaks of "Dubious awards given at Fajr Festival" http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-41941.aspx

[Greeny]

Re. 1310 GMT: Breaking Cover.

I wonder how much Miliband’s new comments have to do with Ahmadinejad’s talk of being prepared to give the uranium stockpiles to the West.

For years IR has been digging in its heal about suspension of enrichment and the uranium stockpile. On the several occasions that it has sounded as if there could be a deal, IR has quickly pulled back and taken a defiant stance.

Now when IR is facing a serious lack of acceptability and legitimacy in Iran and suffering from serious internal divisions and infighting (and when even IR reformists are openly questioning the revolution and the regime as well as the SL), suddenly Ahmadinejad comes on TV and says that we don’t have a problem with giving up our uranium stockpile (BTW he sounds as if he’s talking about exchanging a sack of rotten potatoes with a sack of better ones). This is coming from the same person who not so long ago called UN Security Council resolutions a worthless piece of scarp paper.

So Ahmadinejad’s recent show of “flexibility” (which in my view is just empty talk to sound as if IR is taking the initiative in at least something) is clearly a sign of weakness and desperation (and maybe a sign of intention to crackdown on the people even harder).

So scenting blood, Miliband is now moving onto other issues (like human rights and protests in Iran) which could be used to place IR (and probably it’s Chinese and Russian friends) under further pressure.

[This will probably gain Miliband some points in the West for standing up for human rights, which maybe good form him if he wants to become his party’s future leader]

If so, Ahmadinejad would have shot IR in the foot with his new nuclear “flexibility”.

---

denial,

Re. “Look at the mad support for Khamenei:... How did it come to this?!”

I fail to see what’s so significant about getting a few hundred people in a hall to pretend that they love Khamenei. These are probably the same people who took part in the 9th Day pro-regime “cake and soft drinks” rallies.

They need to get people like this in front of Khamenei so that he thinks that he’s loved by the people and suddenly doesn’t do as the Shah did in Jan 1979. It will also be useful footage for IRIB to show over and over again. They need things like this to give comfort to their own supporters too.

[Seyedkam]

Depressing news from Persian2English.com:
Nine detainees are likely to be executed in the upcoming hours

Hanover Solidarity Center: According to latest reports from Iran, nine detainees are expected to be executed today and tomorrow in Enghelab Square.

Iranian government had announced plans for executing the nine detainees on February 2, 2010.

More information on this news to be followed.
Translation by: Xan I.
Persian2English.com

[Scott Lucas]

Does any reader have information on the claim posted by Seyedkam? I am treating as a rumour without further corroboration.

S.

[ange paris]

Scott
Seyedkam is right; it's written in french media :

http://www.iranfocus.com/fr/droits-de-lhomme/iran-le-regime-s-appr-terait-executer-des-prisonniers-sur-la-place-enghelab-teheran-07687.html

They are building a platform that looks like scaffold on the place of Engellab; there are many agents of security on the site and two women shooting the scene were arrested;
Oh my God they are committing the irreparable !

[Arshama]

@ 0805 GMT: Not-Hysterical-At-All Statement of Day

Sueddeutsche Zeitung reports today that the IRI has developed an atomic warhead with the help of a scientist from the former Soviet Union. Relevant information are contained in a paper from IAEA inspectors in Vienna, confirmed by Western intelligence services and diplomats: http://www.sueddeutsche.de/,tt4l2/politik/45/502281/text/
According to IAEA inspectors this warhead functions and could be integrated into a Shahab-3 missile, because it is based on a modern two-point implosion system, requiring only 2 special EBWs (Exploding Bridgewires).

Even though Mr Krauthammer is largely exaggerating: Shahab-3 missiles have a maximum range of 2000 km, and even the medium-range ballistic missile Ghadr-110 has a range of 3000 km at most: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahab-3 / http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghadr-110
Now the straight line distance between New York and Tehran-Mehrabad is approximately 6124 miles or 9856 kilometers (distance locator). Targetting New York with a Ghadr-110 missile would certainly result in a major catastrophe for some marine organisms in the Mediterranean Sea.

[Greeny]

Scott,

Re. “Does any reader have information on the claim posted by Seyedkam? I am treating as a rumour without further corroboration.”

This was posted on Peyke Iran today:
http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13093

It says it has received a report that some prisoners will be executed today (meaning Friday) in public. It quote a report it has received a which says workers are erecting scaffolding in Enghlab Square in Tehran and there is heavy security presence in that area.

It says that they news is uncorroborated and it does not have any confirmation yet.

From here is from me:
Although this item does not have a time stamp, I think it was posted this morning.
Nothing more than a rumour here. You would expect security presence on Arbaeen in Tehran.

There are reports that SMS is not working at least in parts of Tehran. Also internet was very patchy in Iran on Friday.

[ange paris]

"Submit comment" dosen't work !!

[Scott Lucas]

Ange/Arshama,

Our Spam filter played up and "trapped" your posts, possibly because of the links. I hope all your comments are now up.

S.

[Megan]

Iranians protest in Washington D.C in front of Chinese embassy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqKC4hna2_A

[Megan]

Scott,

“Does any reader have information on the claim posted by Seyedkam? I am treating as a rumour without further corroboration.”
Iran Press News has a report from Balatarin blog that states there is unprecedented presence of security forces around Evin prison with the bridge leading to Front entrance of Evin prison blocked in both directions. It states security forces are equipped with military fire power. It also notes eye witness accounts of scaffolding being erected in Enghlab Square. It further states it is not clear whether this signals imminent execution of some prisoners or presence of security forces around Evin Prison is in anticipation of Protest by families of prisoners. http://www.iranpressnews.com/source/072440.htm

Here is also a video of security forces around Evin prison in the dark of the night http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJw6LfOQ4Bw